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Thread: Oil discussion

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    Oil discussion

    Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

    The break of 89.05 minor support indicates that a temporary top is at least formed at 92.58 and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for deeper retreat. Though, recent rally is still in favor to continue as long as 86.83 support holds. Above 92.58 should extend the rise from 70.76 to 100% projection of 70.76 to 88.63 from 80.06 at 97.93. However, break of 86.83 support will indicate that a short term top is at least formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Also, this will be the first alert that rise from 70.76 is finished and will turn outlook bearish for this support.

    In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Such rally is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 is already met and there is no sign of reversal yet. Further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement at 103.70 and possibly above. On the downside, break of 80.06 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal and break of 64.23 is needed to confirm. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.


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    Crude Oil Falls as Sovereign Crisis Remains Unrosolved, Alaskan Pipelines Resume Operations
    ONG Focus | Insights

    The US market was closed yesterday so that the focus was on Europe and Asia. EU finance ministers ruled out expanding the size of the EFSF for now while Spain offered a premium over its existing debt to sell 6B euro of bonds after 2 auctions scheduled to be held on Thursday was cancelled. The euro slumped while yield spreads between peripheral bonds and German bunds widened. In the commodity markets, WTI crude oil fell after faltering below 92. Decline in the euro and re-opening of Alaskan pipeline weighed on oil prices. Gold changed little with price hovering around 1360. Positive impacts of renewed sovereign concerns in the European periphery were offset by strength in the US dollar.

    EU finance ministers started a 2-day meeting yesterday in Brussels to discuss about strategies to curb sovereign crisis. Although rumors said Germany might not oppose the idea, it turned out that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble resisted expanding the size of the EFSF for now- it will be delayed until March. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said finance leaders would improve the 'currently existing backstops so that the so-called market forces can't have the slightest doubt about our capacity to act even in most stressed scenarios'. He also stressed that they EU will implement more rigorous stress tests on banks in the first half of this year. The market was not convinced by these comments. The euro tumbled against the US dollar and Japanese yen and 10-year German Bunds firmed modestly as investors worried that finance ministers may fail to stem debt crisis.

    The euro rallied last week amid anticipation that sovereign crisis in the region stabilized and ECB might raise the policy rate earlier than previously expected. However, European Central Bank Governing Council member Athanasios Orphanides said the market has markets had gone too far in anticipating ECB rate rises. In an interview in Frankfurt, Orphanides said policymakers 'do not see any need to change the view that the current degree of accommodation in our monetary policy is consistent with price stability in the euro area in the medium term'. This might have disappointed some euro-bulls.

    Apart from macroeconomic uncertainties, crude oil fell as the Alyeska Pipeline Service said it had completed repairs and restarted the Trans Alaska Pipeline System. Meanwhile, OPEC said in a report there is an 'adequate cushion of supply in both inventories and spare capacity to meet the supply needs of the market'. OPEC raised global oil demand forecasts to 86.1M bpd from 85.9M bpd for 2010 and 87.3M bpd from 87.1M bpd for 2011. OPEC production was also revised up slightly to 29M bpd from 28.9M bpd for 2010 and 29.3M bpd from 29.2M bpd for 2011.

    The BOC will be meeting today. We expect policymakers to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1%. However, the accompanying statement may contain more hawkish growth outlook given recent strong economic data and optimism in US growth prospect.

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    OIL traded marginally to the downside overnight as equities saw their first night in a long time down by over 1.00%. Oil finished the session weaker by 0.60% at $91.75. We remain neutral in the short-term on Oil as a break and close above $92.55 has failed on a number of at-tempts. Until this break occurs we will trade the $88.00/92.00 range in our short-term book and look to add to long positions on any weakness for our long-term view.

    Equities will be in focus in the short-term and if we see further de-clines this could push Oil back towards support at $90.00. Data released in Chi-na will be in focus today and if we see a better than expected read on GDP, Oil could move substantially higher. We ex-pect $90.85 to limit any weakness in Asian trade today.

    Compass Direction – NEUTRAL


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    Crude Oil is Little Changed Ahead of DOE Report
    dailyfx.com

    Crude Oil (WTI) - $90.70 // $0.16 // 0.18%

    Commentary: WTI fell $0.52, or 0.57%, to settle at $90.86, while Brent added $0.36, or 0.37%, to settle at $98.16. News that a single oil trader has bought up a significant portion of available Brent and Forties cargoes has given a boost to Brent, but the primary culprit for the wide differential remains weakness in WTI.

    Overall, Wednesday’s price action was muted as traders await the DOE report on U.S. inventories set to be released on Thursday, one day later than usual due to the MLK holiday on Monday. U.S. equity markets fell the most in two months, with the S&P 500 shedding 1%, but given that the catalyst was mere profit taking, the move had little impact on oil. Sentiment remains extremely bullish in commodity markets due largely to a strengthening economic outlook.

    Ahead of the DOE report, the API survey showed a 3.5 million barrel build in crude stocks, a 1.9 million barrel build in gasoline stocks, and a 0.9 million barrel build in distillate stocks. These are fairly neutral figures for this time of year.

    Technical Outlook: Prices continue to consolidate but overall positioning since early November looks to be carving out a bearish Rising Wedge chart formation, hinting the path of least resistance favors the downside. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for forthcoming losses. A break through wedge support – now at $89.91 – exposes the $87.33 level.

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    Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
    Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

    Crude oil weakness mildly and is back pressing 90 psychological level and intraday bias remains neutral. Consolidation pattern from 92.58 might continue further and below 90.10 minor support will flip bias to the downside for another retreat. Though, even in that case, recent rise is still in favor to continue as long as 86.83 support holds. Above 92.58 should extend the rise from 70.76 to 100% projection of 70.76 to 88.63 from 80.06 at 97.93. However, break of 86.83 support will indicate that a short term top is at least formed. Also, this will be the first alert that rise from 70.76 is finished and will turn outlook bearish for this support.

    In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Such rally is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 is already met and there is no sign of reversal yet. Further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement at 103.70 and possibly above. On the downside, break of 80.06 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal and break of 64.23 is needed to confirm. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CRUDE OIL: 24 JANUARY 2011



    http://wssfx.com/

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    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CRUDE OIL: 25 JANUARY 2011



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    Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
    Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

    With 86.83 support intact, there is no change in crude oil's outlook. Price actions from 92.58 are treated as consolidation in the larger rally only and should be near to completion. Above 90.22 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 92.58 will target 100% projection of 70.76 to 88.63 from 80.06 at 97.93. However, break of 86.83 support will be the first alert that rise from 70.76 is finished and will bring deeper fall to 80.06 support for confirmation.

    In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Such rally is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27 (2008 high). 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 is already met and there is no sign of reversal yet. Further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement at 103.70 and possibly above. On the downside, break of 80.06 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal and break of 64.23 is needed to confirm. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.


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    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CRUDE OIL: 26 JANUARY 2011



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    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CRUDE OIL: 27 JANUARY 2011



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