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Thread: World News from Forex Forum Nigeria.
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    You wanted it, you got it - Carney defends BoE Brexit report

    Bank of England Governor Mark Carney hit back at critics of the central bank’s warnings of a potentially big Brexit hit to the economy, denying allegations of scare-mongering made by some members of Parliament who oppose Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans.

    The BoE said last week that Britain could suffer greater damage to its economy than during the global financial crisis under a worst-case exit from the European Union.

    Carney, speaking to MPs on Tuesday, denied a suggestion that the BoE’s scenarios were rushed out to help May get support for her Brexit plan and stressed that the central bank had been asked to provide them by MPs.

    “There’s no exam crisis. We didn’t just stay up all night and write a letter to the Treasury Committee,” Carney said. “You asked for something that we had, and we brought it, and we gave it to you.”

    Less than four months before Britain is due to exit the EU, it remains unclear whether it will leave with a transition deal in place to smooth the shock for the economy.

    May’s Brexit agreement with EU leaders faces deep opposition in parliament, including from within her own Conservative Party, ahead of a key vote on Dec. 11.

    Pro-Brexit critics of Carney, who regularly accuse him of political meddling, dismissed last week’s BoE report as part of a “Project Hysteria.”

    Former BoE Governor Mervyn King on Tuesday lamented the central bank’s involvement in what he said was an attempt to frighten the country about Brexit.

    “It saddens me to see the Bank of England unnecessarily drawn into this project,” he said in an article published by Bloomberg.

    Carney took a couple of barely concealed swipes at King, saying Britain had paid the price for not focussing on risks from the banking sector before the global financial crisis and had misunderstood the importance of wholesale funding for lenders.

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    May's Brexit deal under fire as legal advice stiffens opposition

    Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal came under fire from allies and opponents alike on Wednesday after the government was forced to publish legal advice showing the United Kingdom could be locked indefinitely in the European Union’s orbit.

    After a string of humiliating parliamentary defeats for May the day before cast new doubt over her ability to get a deal approved, U.S. investment bank J.P. Morgan said the chances of Britain calling off Brexit altogether had increased.

    As investors and allies tried to work out the ultimate destination for the world’s fifth largest economy, the Northern Irish party which props up May’s government said legal advice about the deal was “devastating”.

    May was forced by parliament to publish advice from the government’s top lawyer about the fallback mechanism, or backstop, to prevent the return of border controls between British-ruled Northern Ireland and the EU-member Irish Republic.

    “Despite statements in the Protocol that it is not intended to be permanent and the clear intention of the parties that it should be replaced by alternative, permanent arrangements, in international law the Protocol would endure indefinitely until a superseding agreement took its place,” the advice said.

    “In the absence of a right of termination, there is a legal risk that the United Kingdom might become subject to protracted and repeating rounds of negotiations.”

    Brexit, the United Kingdom’s biggest economic and political shift since World War Two, has repeatedly plunged British politics into crisis since the shock 2016 vote to leave the EU.

    Now May is trying to get her deal approved by a parliament which shows every sign of striking it down in a vote on Dec. 11. It is unclear what happens if the deal is rejected as Britain is due to leave on March 29.

    Nigel Dodds, the deputy leader of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, said the legal advice proved that Northern Ireland would be treated differently to the rest of the United Kingdom.

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    UK economy risks severe damage without orderly Brexit - CBI

    Britain will struggle to achieve even modest economic growth next year unless the government secures an orderly Brexit in March, the Confederation of British Industry said on Thursday.

    The CBI said the world’s fifth-largest economy would grow by 1.3 percent in 2018, 1.4 percent in 2019 and 1.6 percent in 2020, little changed from its previous projections in June.

    The forecasts were slightly weaker than those of the Bank of England.

    The CBI said it was assuming that Prime Minister Theresa May wins backing in parliament for her preferred plan for leaving the European Union, something which looks unlikely at a vote due on Dec. 11.

    “A no-deal scenario would blow these figures out of the water,” the CBI’s director-general, Carolyn Fairbairn, said, reiterating her organisation’s support for May’s plan.

    Last week, the BoE warned that a worst-case Brexit could deal a bigger blow to Britain than the 2008 financial crisis, shrinking the economy by as much as 8 percent in a year.

    Economists at U.S. bank J.P. Morgan said on Wednesday the odds of Britain staying in the EU had risen to 40 percent from 20 percent, following parliamentary setbacks for May and the likelihood that the European Court of Justice will rule that Britain could unilaterally revoke its EU departure notice.

    Before the 2016 referendum, the CBI argued that staying in the EU would be best for Britain’s economy.

    Whilst the CBI expects real wage growth to recover partially, it predicts living standards will not rise much, due to Britain’s failure to tackle persistently weak productivity.

    “Brexit has sucked the oxygen from the domestic agenda,” Fairbairn said.

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    UK house prices rise at slowest pace in six years as Brexit nears

    British house prices rose at their slowest pace in six years in the three months to November, mortgage lender Halifax said on Friday, the latest sign of weakness in the housing market as Brexit approaches.

    Annual house price growth slowed sharply to 0.3 percent from 1.5 percent in the three months to October, Halifax said.

    Halifax’s house price index was rising by nearly 10 percent a year at the time of the 2016 Brexit vote.

    In November alone, house prices fell by a monthly 1.4 percent, the third decline in the last four months and the biggest fall since April.

    Halifax Managing Director Russell Galley said the slowdown in annual price growth remained within the lender’s forecast range for 2018 of zero to an increase of 3 percent.

    Property analysts say the main factor preventing prices from actually falling is a shortage of homes on the market although prices in London have fallen, according to some measures.

    Howard Archer, an economist with EY Item Club, said prices would probably slip modesty on a nationwide basis if Britain leaves the European Union in March without a Brexit deal.

    Earlier on Friday, home-builder Berkeley Group (BKGH.L) announced a 26 percent fall in profit and it warned about uncertainty in the short term as people put off house purchases ahead of Britain’s exit from the EU.

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    UK stocks fall further as investors brace for Brexit vote

    British shares fell on Monday as concerns over slowing economic growth hit global stocks and investors braced for a crucial vote on Tuesday over Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

    The UK Parliament is expected to reject her divorce deal, heightening political tension in Europe’s second largest economy and perhaps paving the way for a general election.

    The FTSE 100 .FTSE top share index was down 0.4 percent by 1000 GMT, while the more domestically focused FTSE 250 .FTMC index fell 0.8 percent, sliding back to its lowest level since December 2016.

    “Given the way political risk is starting to be priced into the market, we could see further losses if, or rather when, the prime minister loses her Brexit vote,” said Neil Wilson, Chief Market Analyst at Markets.com.

    “Whilst a weaker pound could offer some support, a very high political risk premium would tend to trump that and drag the market lower. Investors will have to start, if they haven’t already, to price in the risk of a general election and Labour-led government,” he added.

    Top fallers on the FTSE were utilities Centrica (CNA.L) and SSE (SSE.L), both down around 3 percent, weighed down by political uncertainty ahead of Tuesday’s vote.

    Analysts say that a Labour-led government and a threat of a nationalisation of utilities would put further pressure on the sector.

    Royal Mail (RMG.L), recently demoted from the FTSE 100, also fell 2.7 percent.

    “Remember that Labour had previously threatened to nationalise utilities and Royal Mail, so investors may be starting to price in a higher likelihood of a general election in the near future and for Labour to have a strengthening hand,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

    Traders said Centrica was also penalised after a Sunday Telegraph reported that the owner of Britain’s largest energy supplier British Gas could struggle to pay dividends.

    Housebuilders, which are also highly sensitive to Brexit developments, were broadly lower as tension built and analyst at Peel Hunt cut their ratings and price targets.

    Shares in Berkeley Group (BKGH.L), Persimmon (PSN.L), Taylor Wimpey (TW.L) and Barratt Development (BDEV.L) fell between 0.4 and 1.6 percent.

    Shares in pension provider Just Group (JUSTJ.L) rallied 22 percent, set for its best day ever, following a policy announcement from the Bank of England’s regulatory body that proposed changes in rules over lifetime mortgages.

    “This appears a good announcement for Just Group and removes a considerable amount of the uncertainty faced by shareholders,” said Numis in a note.

    Among the few gainers were shares in precious metal miner Randgold (RRS.L), which was lifted 1.7 percent as investors sought refuge in safe haven assets such as gold.

    Shares in Interserve (IRV.L) plunged 52 percent to fresh record lows after the embattled British outsourcer announced a rescue plan that envisaged converting much of its debt into new shares, potentially handing control of the company to its creditors.

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    Economy still weak as GDP grows 1.81% in Q3

    Experts yesterday said Nigeria’s economy is still fragile as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.81 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2018.

    The GDP report released, yesterday, by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that when compared to the third quarter of 2017 which recorded a growth of 1.17 per cent, there was an increase of 0.64 per cent points.

    Analysis showed that the second quarter of 2018 had a growth rate of 1.50 per cent showing a rise of 0.31 per cent points.

    Daily Trust further observed that quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was 9.05 per cent.

    In the third quarter of this year, aggregate GDP stood at N33.37 trillion in nominal terms, a performance that is higher when compared to the third quarter of 2017 which recorded a GDP aggregate of N29.38 trillion, thus, presenting a positive year on year nominal growth rate of 13.58 per cent.

    This growth rate is higher relative to growth recorded in the third quarter of 2017 by 2.88 per cent points and higher than the preceding quarter by 0.01 per cent points with growth rates of 10.70 per cent and 13.57 per cent respectively.

    For clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.

    The nation in the third quarter of 2018 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.94 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 2.02mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2017 by -0.08mbpd but higher than that of the second quarter of 2018 production volume of 1.84mbpd by 0.10mbpd.

    Real growth of the oil sector was -2.91per cent (year-on-year) in Q3 2018 indicating a decrease of -25.94 per cent points relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2017.

    Growth increased by 1.04 per cent points when compared to Q2 2018 which was -3.95 per cent.

    Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 19.64 per cent in Q3 2018.

    The oil sector contributed 9.38 per cent to total real GDP in Q3 2018, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2017 and up compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 9.84 per cent and 8.55 per cent respectively.

    Meanwhile, the non-oil sector grew by 2.32 per cent in real terms during the reference quarter and this is higher by 3.08 per cent points compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2017 and 0.28 per cent point higher than the second quarter of 2018.

    The report stated that this sector was driven this quarter mainly by information and communication. Other drivers were agriculture, manufacturing, trade, transportation and storage and professional, scientific and technical services.

    In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 90.62 per cent to the nation’s GDP, higher from that recorded in the third quarter of 2017 recorded as 90.16 per cent and lower than the second quarter of 2018 recorded as 91.45 per cent.

    Reacting to the latest GDP report, the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) said the Federal Government can sustain the latest growth in the economy by leveraging on the non-oil sector and the private sector specifically to grow the economy.

    Speaking on the Q3 GDP report released, yesterday, by the NBS, the president of the chamber, Prince Adetokumbo Kayode, said the growth recorded may not be unconnected to the Federal Government’s efforts to diversify the economy away from oil to the non-oil sector.

    Prince Kayode said the only way Nigeria could sustain this growth is to industrialise and develop Small and Medium Enterprises to spur further growth in the economy.

    “Our economy has grown by 1.8 per cent this year. That was the projection and the projection was right. But that is not enough. We need to grow by like 4 per cent next year but we cannot achieve that by folding our arms. The private sector is the critical part of it; it is not government that will grow the economy alone,” he said.

    He predicted that the Nigerian economy will grow to 4 per cent in 2019 and thereafter return to over 6 per cent where it was before recession set in.

    “I absolutely have confidence that we can do it. All we need is for government to understand that they must partner with the private sector. Government trying to run the business alone is never going to work,” he said.

    Prince Kayode said government does not run the economy but the private sector as the former should only create the enabling environment for businesses to thrive.

    But in spite of the positive growth in Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since Nigeria exited recession, an economic expert said the growth is still weak and fragile.

    Prof. Uche Uwaleke, Head of Department, Nasarawa State University Keffi, said indeed it marked an end to the downward trend in GDP growth noticed since the first quarter of this year.

    Of note he said, “is the performance of the non-oil sector where marginal improvements were recorded in manufacturing, especially cement production, transportation and agriculture.”

    He noted that “this outcome may have been helped by the implementation of the 2018 budget which kicked-in at the beginning of the third quarter, the relative stability in the exchange rate as well as the CBN’s interventions in the real sector.”

    He however noted that “the growth is still weak and fragile particularly with respect to the sectors that have strong linkages to jobs. The performance of the financial services sector which is critical to the economy is disappointing,” he said.

    He suggested that “going forward, there is the need to vigorously implement the capital component of the 2018 budget, invest more in education and health sectors which are lagging behind, tackle the incessant farmers-herdsmen clashes weighing down on food production and enhance access to credit by target beneficiaries of the various CBN intervention schemes.”

    “Overall, improvement in the ease of doing business will go a long way in increasing the risk appetite of financial institutions in Nigeria which will positively rub off on GDP growth,” he noted.

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    Brexit turmoil won't automatically push UK rating down: S&P Global

    Britain’s AA credit rating may not be affected by any change of prime minister, S&P Global said on Wednesday, but it would be unlikely to survive an economically painful hard Brexit from the European Union.

    With less than four months to go until the UK is due to leave the EU, events have been plunged into chaos as members of Theresa May’s ruling Conservative party, unhappy at her Brexit plans, have moved to oust her.

    Britain became the first triple-A country to suffer a two-notch downgrade following the 2016 Brexit vote, and S&P has kept a ‘negative’ outlook — effectively a downgrade warning — on its rating ever since.

    “A change of leadership would be an important development for us to take into account but I wouldn’t necessarily characterize it as an automatic rating action,” S&P’s lead global sovereign analyst Roberto Sifon-Arevalo told Reuters.

    “We would need to analyze what it actually means for future policymaking: who is coming after and what are the policies.”

    That wouldn’t take long to figure out, he added, but it is also feasible that May could survive, which would prevent another leadership challenge being mounted for a year.

    S&P’s big worry for the UK rating remains a drastic move away from the EU with a so-called ‘hard Brexit’. Its economists have done a set of economic forecasts on that scenario.

    “That showed an important hit to the economy that is likely to have an impact on the rating,” Sifon-Arevalo said, although even then it might want to see how bad the hit is.

    The other alternative that has been touted amid all the turmoil is a second Brexit vote to check the UK public still supports the idea. If it no longer does, London could make a U-turn and stay in the EU.

    “Taking away the uncertainty of Brexit from the equation has to be positive (for the rating)”.

    “But given the degree of support that Brexit had, it would be important to see what the social reaction is to it.”

    “Like in France, you do have a super-charged environment where people are willing to go and protest on the streets which puts a lot of restrictions on policymakers.”

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    UK's Nissan Brexit letter still too confidential to release two years on - FOI

    A British government letter to Nissan two years ago offering reassurances about Brexit, which helped secure a major investment from the Japanese carmaker, is still considered too sensitive to release, a Reuters freedom of information request revealed.

    Nissan (7201.T) announced in October 2016 that it would build its next generation Qashqai sports utility vehicle and a new X-Trail model at its north of England facility, in a major Brexit boost for Prime Minister Theresa May.

    A source told Reuters at the time that in the letter Britain promised Nissan extra support in the event that its departure from the European Union hit the competitiveness of the plant.

    The letter sparked concerns of secretive deals between the government and companies, with business minister Greg Clark promising in December 2016 to release the document once it was no longer sensitive.

    Reuters has repeatedly asked for the letter to be released, and in its latest response to a freedom of information request (FOI), the business ministry said it was still too sensitive to be disclosed.

    “The commercial confidentialities are ongoing,” officials said. “We remain in touch with the company about these issues. It is important that we do not release information prematurely that would harm Nissan’s competitiveness position.”

    But earlier this year, the office of Britain’s information commissioner, which oversees the FOI procedure, said the business, energy and industrial strategy ministry (BEIS) expected the letter would be released in 2018.

    “Given the scale of the Nissan investment and procurement exercise, which is still underway, the expected date of publication had slipped somewhat,” it wrote in a document dated Jan. 9.

    “BEIS advised the Commissioner that they expected the exercise to conclude in the first quarter of 2018 and for the letter to be published around this time, when the commercial sensitivities would reduce.”

    Nissan said on Thursday that Clark outlined the contents of the correspondence to parliament in October 2016.

    “While it remains commercially sensitive, we will not comment further on the details of our conversations with the UK government,” it added.

    The automaker said at the time that support and assurances from the authorities enabled it to make the investment decision.

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    Euro zone business ends 2018 with growth at four-year low - PMIs

    Euro zone business ended the year on a weak note, expanding at the slowest pace in over four years as new order growth all but dried up, hurt by trade tensions and violent protests in France, a survey showed on Friday.

    The downbeat figures come a day after the European Central Bank decided to end its lavish asset-buying scheme but otherwise kept policy broadly unchanged, promising protracted stimulus for an economy struggling with an unexpected slowdown and political turmoil.

    IHS Markit’s Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index slumped to 51.3, its weakest since November 2014, from a final November reading of 52.7, well below even the most pessimistic forecast in a Reuters poll where the median expectation was for a modest rise to 52.8.

    “It’s a relatively gloomy picture to end the year on. It’s clear the underlying rate of growth has slowed further, and it is broad-based across manufacturing and services,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

    Williamson said the PMI indicated the bloc’s economy would expand 0.2-0.3 percent this quarter - and probably towards the lower end - slower than the 0.4 percent predicted in a Reuters poll this week.

    Suggesting there won’t be much of a pick up when 2019 begins, an index measuring new business fell to a four-year low of 50.7 from November’s 52.3, skating closer to the 50 level that separates growth from contraction.

    New export business, which includes trade between member countries, contracted for a third month.

    A PMI for the bloc’s dominant service industry sank to 51.4 from November’s 53.4, well below even the lowest forecast in a Reuters poll for 53.5.

    Slowing growth came despite service firms increasing their prices at the weakest rate in seven months. The output price index fell to 52.4 from 52.8.

    Manufacturing growth also unexpectedly slowed. The factory PMI fell to 51.4 from 51.8 in November, missing the 51.9 predicted in a Reuters poll and its lowest reading since February 2016.

    An index measuring output, which feeds into the composite PMI, nudged up to 51.0 from 50.7. The November reading was the lowest since mid-2013.

    But with orders falling and backlogs of work being run down, optimism waned among factory managers. The future output index dropped to a six-year low of 56.0 from 56.3.

    “There isn’t much to pin hopes of faster growth on,” Williamson said.

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  12. #550
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    UK household confidence drops to six-month low in December - IHS Markit

    British households’ confidence in their finances hit a six-month low in December, as their earnings from employment rose more slowly while living costs increased, a survey showed on Monday.

    The monthly Household Finance Index from financial data company IHS Markit fell to 43.9 in December, its lowest since June, from 44.4 the month before.

    Worse conditions in every aspect of households’ finances prompted pessimism for the new year ahead, with future financial outlook plummeting to one of its lowest readings in over four years.

    As Christmas approaches and March’s Brexit deadline looms, the significant decrease in consumers’ financial health could trigger fears of a knock-on effect for the economy as a whole.

    “(The) data demonstrate the negative impact that political and economic uncertainty is having on households,” IHS Markit economist Joe Hayes said.

    “If sentiment continues to decline, the effect on the real economy may become more apparent in hard data if households begin to alter consumption behaviour.”

    After a slight improvement last month, growth in earnings from employment slowed again in December, and was below average for the year. The December survey data showed this was paired with a renewed uptick in living costs.

    Households’ perceptions of their earnings are more downbeat than the most recent official data, which showed the biggest annual increase in headline weekly pay for a decade in October, and the largest rise since 2016 in inflation-adjusted terms.

    Against the backdrop of Brexit uncertainty, the survey data showed increased feelings of job insecurity.

    British households’ bleak outlook for the year ahead also extended to the housing market, where confidence in house price increases hit a six-year low, excluding just after the EU referendum. This pessimism was most marked in London, where property value expectations dropped to their lowest since 2009.

    While the majority of households still expect the Bank of England to increase interest rates over the next twelve months, there was a noticeable increase in those expecting a cut, rising to 11.2 percent in December from 6.5 percent.

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