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Thread: World News from Forex Forum Nigeria.
  1. #551
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    Euro zone business ends 2018 with growth at four-year low - PMIs

    Euro zone business ended the year on a weak note, expanding at the slowest pace in over four years as new order growth all but dried up, hurt by trade tensions and violent protests in France, a survey showed on Friday.

    The downbeat figures come a day after the European Central Bank decided to end its lavish asset-buying scheme but otherwise kept policy broadly unchanged, promising protracted stimulus for an economy struggling with an unexpected slowdown and political turmoil.

    IHS Markit’s Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index slumped to 51.3, its weakest since November 2014, from a final November reading of 52.7, well below even the most pessimistic forecast in a Reuters poll where the median expectation was for a modest rise to 52.8.

    “It’s a relatively gloomy picture to end the year on. It’s clear the underlying rate of growth has slowed further, and it is broad-based across manufacturing and services,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

    Williamson said the PMI indicated the bloc’s economy would expand 0.2-0.3 percent this quarter - and probably towards the lower end - slower than the 0.4 percent predicted in a Reuters poll this week.

    Suggesting there won’t be much of a pick up when 2019 begins, an index measuring new business fell to a four-year low of 50.7 from November’s 52.3, skating closer to the 50 level that separates growth from contraction.

    New export business, which includes trade between member countries, contracted for a third month.

    A PMI for the bloc’s dominant service industry sank to 51.4 from November’s 53.4, well below even the lowest forecast in a Reuters poll for 53.5.

    Slowing growth came despite service firms increasing their prices at the weakest rate in seven months. The output price index fell to 52.4 from 52.8.

    Manufacturing growth also unexpectedly slowed. The factory PMI fell to 51.4 from 51.8 in November, missing the 51.9 predicted in a Reuters poll and its lowest reading since February 2016.

    An index measuring output, which feeds into the composite PMI, nudged up to 51.0 from 50.7. The November reading was the lowest since mid-2013.

    But with orders falling and backlogs of work being run down, optimism waned among factory managers. The future output index dropped to a six-year low of 56.0 from 56.3.

    “There isn’t much to pin hopes of faster growth on,” Williamson said.

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    UK household confidence drops to six-month low in December - IHS Markit

    British households’ confidence in their finances hit a six-month low in December, as their earnings from employment rose more slowly while living costs increased, a survey showed on Monday.

    The monthly Household Finance Index from financial data company IHS Markit fell to 43.9 in December, its lowest since June, from 44.4 the month before.

    Worse conditions in every aspect of households’ finances prompted pessimism for the new year ahead, with future financial outlook plummeting to one of its lowest readings in over four years.

    As Christmas approaches and March’s Brexit deadline looms, the significant decrease in consumers’ financial health could trigger fears of a knock-on effect for the economy as a whole.

    “(The) data demonstrate the negative impact that political and economic uncertainty is having on households,” IHS Markit economist Joe Hayes said.

    “If sentiment continues to decline, the effect on the real economy may become more apparent in hard data if households begin to alter consumption behaviour.”

    After a slight improvement last month, growth in earnings from employment slowed again in December, and was below average for the year. The December survey data showed this was paired with a renewed uptick in living costs.

    Households’ perceptions of their earnings are more downbeat than the most recent official data, which showed the biggest annual increase in headline weekly pay for a decade in October, and the largest rise since 2016 in inflation-adjusted terms.

    Against the backdrop of Brexit uncertainty, the survey data showed increased feelings of job insecurity.

    British households’ bleak outlook for the year ahead also extended to the housing market, where confidence in house price increases hit a six-year low, excluding just after the EU referendum. This pessimism was most marked in London, where property value expectations dropped to their lowest since 2009.

    While the majority of households still expect the Bank of England to increase interest rates over the next twelve months, there was a noticeable increase in those expecting a cut, rising to 11.2 percent in December from 6.5 percent.

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    UK economy set for slowest growth since 2009 as Brexit nears - BCC

    British economic growth this year and in 2019 looks set to be the weakest since the country’s last recession, due to a freeze in business investment and weak consumer demand ahead of Brexit, the British Chambers of Commerce forecast on Tuesday.

    The business lobby said growth in 2018 was likely to slow to 1.2 percent before inching up to 1.3 percent in 2019, which would be the two weakest years since Britain emerged from recession in 2009 after the global financial crisis.

    “While Brexit isn’t the only factor affecting businesses and trade, it is hugely important — and the lack of certainty over the UK’s future relationship with the EU has led to many firms hitting the pause button on their growth plans,” BCC director Adam Marshall said.

    Britain’s economy has slowed since the Brexit referendum in 2016 and there is no guarantee that businesses and consumers will retain tariff-free access to European goods when Britain leaves the European Union which is scheduled for March 29.

    The BCC said sterling’s weakness against the dollar and the euro was likely to continue to drive inflation, eating into consumers’ disposable income, while business investment was due to contract by 0.6 percent this year and barely grow the next.

    Separately, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors predicted that house prices would be flat next year, the first year with no growth since 2012, due to Brexit uncertainty and the inability of many buyers to afford higher prices.

    “On the back of this, house price growth at a UK level seems set to lose further momentum, although the lack of supply and a still solid labour market backdrop will likely prevent negative trends,” RICS’s head of policy, Hew Edgar, said.

    The number of houses being sold was likely to fall around 5 percent next year, RICS added.

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Forex Forum Nigeria – Presentation
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