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Thread: World News from Forex Forum Nigeria.

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    Private banks jump into fray as money flows into emerging markets.

    After hemorrhaging cash over the last few years, flows into emerging markets (EM) appear to be turning a corner.

    Despite turmoil in places such as Argentina, Brazil and swaths of the Middle East and Africa, foreign investment in a number of developing economies is quickening this year — which is also helping to feed government spending.

    With investors recently funneling more than $9 billion into emerging market funds — a three-year high — and the benchmark MSCI emerging market fund up nearly 15 percent year to date, experts say it's a good time to be in the sector. It also happens that there's life after BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, most of which have stumbled recently — and analysts say it's in private banking.

    In a recent note to clients, Deutsche Bank's chief global strategist Binky Chadha said that "over the medium term, we see substantial scope for further emerging market inflows, aided by a continued rotation out of European equities."

    In particular, helping emerging market economies create and preserve wealth presents rich opportunities that a number of major banks are rushing to take advantage of.

    The current state of wealth management remains solid, Jose Rasco, chief investment strategist with HSBC Private Bank Americas, told CNBC in a recent interview. "In this business cycle, economic growth has been muted but wealth creation continues to advance," he said, citing India, China and Mexico as three areas where HSBC sees particular promise.

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    China biggest threat to global economic stability – former IMF chief economist


    Soaring debt and stagnant growth in China are a major threat to the global economy, said Harvard professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kenneth Rogoff in an interview with the BBC.

    "I think the economy is slowing down much more than the official figures show," Rogoff told the British broadcaster.

    The IMF expects the Chinese economy to grow 6.6 percent this year, its lowest growth since 1990.

    "If you want to look at a part of the world that has a debt problem, look at China. They've seen credit fueled growth and these things don't go on forever," he added.

    Rogoff doesn’t rule out that one of the main drivers of the global economy may face a “hard landing”.

    "We've taken it for granted that whatever Europe's doing, Japan's doing - at least China's moving along and there isn't really a substitute for China," he said.

    “I think India may come along some day, but it's fallen so far behind in size it's not going to compensate," Rogoff added.

    According to the economist, China is now seeing a "big political revolution," pointing out to Beijing’s attempt to make the economy consumer-driven.

    A recent research by Nomura showed that since the global crisis of 2008, Chinese firms have more than doubled the percentage of income they spend on servicing debt to 20 percent, the highest in the world.

    The Bank for International Settlements in Basel has estimated China's credit-to-GDP deficit is now 30.1 percent, its biggest number since 1995, raising fears that the country’s economy growth was driven by a debt bubble.

    This leaves British banks exposed to any trouble in the world’s second-biggest economy, according to Rogoff. UK banks have $530 billion worth of investments in China, or 16 percent of overall foreign assets.
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    Get ready for the Great Unravelling: How the world economy is failing.


    The fourth calendar quarter of the year begins next week, and the world’s economic prognosis, if viewed objectively, has never been worse. While one might be forgiven for looking around and proclaiming that all is well in the world, such a superficial conclusion is about to be rendered false.

    Here are the main factors indicative of an imminent financial crisis:

    Foreign central banks are abdicating from the U.S. Treasury trade at an increasing, and alarming rate. Bloomberg reported on Sept. 26 that U.S. bond investors are selling like never before, with China and Japan reducing holdings at the most sustained pace ever, and appears to be accelerating. This is going to add pressure on the Fed to raise rates at the next meeting in December, which, as we have witnessed, will almost certainly ignite a selloff in markets around the world.

    Corporate earnings in the U.S. were expected to be seen recovering by the end of the third quarter, but that is not happening. In fact, S&P 500 companies are expected to reporting yet another quarter of earnings decline, bringing to six the number of consecutive quarters that such has been the case.

    Bank stocks across Europe are selling off in what looks like a general stampede away from the world’s largest commercial financial institutions, suggesting there is a mounting crisis of confidence in banks as loan book quality around the world continues to deteriorate in the face of declining valuations and diminished economic expectations. Deutsche Bank, for example, whose stock has seen its market cap shrink by over 50 per cent year-to-date, losing almost seven per cent on Monday, Sept. 26 alone.

    China appears to be accelerating toward the “hard landing” many market observers had dismissed, believing the risk of such an outcome in the world’s second largest economy was already well in the rear-view mirror. Economist Kenneth Rogoff, who is professor of economics at Harvard University, said that China is the biggest threat to the global economy. “I think the economy is slowing down much more than the official figures show,” Rogoff, who is a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), told the BBC during an interivew.

    With a Trump presidency looking all the more a realistic possibility with only four weeks to go until the election, markets are demonstrating an increasing level of volatility that could see more investors cash out and head for the bleachers to wait out what is seen as a higher risk environment. The withdrawal of market liquidity on a large scale would likely drive indices lower, which would itself have a deleterious effect on investor activity.
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    India Continues to Climb World Economic Forum’s Competitive Rankings.




    Better infrastructure and strong economic growth have helped lift India further up the World Economic Forum’s competitiveness ranking.

    The South Asian nation leapt 16 places to number 39 out of the 138 countries rated, meaning the WEF saw it as more competitive than Brazil, Russia or South Africa in its Global Competitiveness Report for 2016-2017. China was ranked 28th.

    “India has made significant progress on infrastructure, one of the pillars where it ranked worst,” said the report.

    The ranking is based on the assessment on 12 parameters including infrastructure, market size, institutions and business sophistication.

    Switzerland, Singapore and the U.S. continued to dominate the rankings with the top three positions.

    India led the pack in South Asia to feature in the top half of the rankings this year. Sri Lanka came in at 71st. Pakistan rose four places in the ranking to 122nd.

    India also rose 16 places in last year’s ranking in a move the WEF attributed to the country’s “dramatic reversal” initiated by the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

    Syed Akbaruddin, India’s Ambassador to the United Nations took to twitter to announce the country’s rapid climb.

    The report also highlighted some of the remaining problems of doing business in India: confusing tax regulations, corruption and others.

    “The country’s biggest relative weakness today is in technological readiness, where initiatives such as Digital India could lead to significant improvements in the next years,” said the report.

    “Huge challenges still lie ahead on India’s path to prosperity.”
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    The Global Competitiveness Report 2016–2017.

    The Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017 assesses the competitiveness landscape of 138 economies, providing insight into the drivers of their productivity and prosperity.

    This year’s edition highlights that declining openness is threatening growth and prosperity. It also highlights that monetary stimulus measures such as quantitative easing are not enough to sustain growth and must be accompanied by competitiveness reforms. Final key finding points to the fact that updated business practices and investment in innovation are now as important as infrastructure, skills and efficient markets.

    Switzerland, Singapore and the United States remain the three world’s most competitive economies.

    “Declining openness in the global economy is harming competitiveness and making it harder for leaders to drive sustainable, inclusive growth,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum.

    The Report series remains the most comprehensive assessment of national competitiveness worldwide

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    Global Economy Week Ahead: IMF Meetings, U.S. Jobs Report, China Forex Reserves.

    The International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings and U.S. employment data are highlights of the week’s economic calendar. The jobs report in particular will influence policy makers, investors and voters’ assessment of the world’s biggest economy.

    MONDAY
    : The Bank of Japan will release its tankan survey of business sentiment Monday morning local time (7:50 p.m. EDT Sunday). The September survey is expected to show that sentiment among big manufacturers improved slightly to plus 7, from the previous plus 6, as concerns about Brexit and the effects of earthquakes in western Japan softened. The index measures the percentage of companies saying business conditions are favorable minus those saying they are unfavorable.

    The Institute for Supply Management will gauge September’s U.S. factory activity. The group’s purchasing managers index showed manufacturing activity contracted in August, highlighting the sector’s struggles amid slow economic growth at home and abroad. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect a reading of 49.7, a marginal improvement from 49.4. A number above 50 indicates expansion.

    TUESDAY: The International Monetary Fund will kick off a week of meetings in Washington, with the release of its latest World Economic Outlook. With the IMF signaling another down****e to global growth, finance ministers and central bankers from around the world will grapple with weak output, the growing risk of a deflation trap and debt levels heading into the stratosphere. Other issues to tackle include the continuing Greek debt crisis, China’s economic deceleration, an immigration crisis and a slowdown in international trade.

    FRIDAY: China’s September foreign exchange reserve data will be scrutinized for signs of a significant uptick in capital outflow and insights into the central bank’s strategy. Expectations are that forex reserves won’t change much after a larger-than-expected but still modest $15.9 billion drop in August, the second consecutive monthly decline. As of August, total reserves stood at $3.185 trillion, and some economists saw in the August data signs that net capital outflow increased that month.

    The U.S. employment report for September comes at a crucial time for both politics and policy, with the presidential election in November and the Federal Reserve indicating it could raise rates in December. So far this year, readings have averaged 182,000 net new jobs a month, a marked slowdown from 2015’s 229,000 but still likely enough to keep unemployment in check, draw Americans into the workforce and put a little upward pressure on wages. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are forecasting a gain of 165,000 jobs and an unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%.

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    IMF World Economic Outlook forecast.


    The International Monetary Fund launches the forecast chapters 1 and 2 of its latest World Economic Outlook, its biannual analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level.

    The analytical chapters were published last week and highlighted that the overall weakness in global economic activity, in particular in investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for up to three-quarters of the slowdown.

    The report also noted that persistent economic slack and softening commodity prices were behind the ultra-low level of inflation and that “the perceived ability of monetary policy to combat persistent disinflation may be diminishing.”
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    IMF Sees Subdued Global Growth, Warns Economic Stagnation.

    • Global growth subpar at 3.1 percent in 2016, with slight increase to 3.4 percent next year
    • Persistent stagnation in advanced economies could further fuel anti-trade sentiment, stifling growth
    • Countries need to rely on all policy levers—monetary, fiscal and structural—to lift growth prospects

    Global economic growth will remain subdued this year following a slowdown in the United States and Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the IMF said in its October 2016 World Economic Outlook.

    “Taken as a whole, the world economy has moved sideways,” said IMF chief economist and economic counsellor, Maurice Obstfeld. “We have slightly marked down 2016 growth prospects for advanced economies while marking up those in the rest of the world,” he said.

    The report highlighted the precarious nature of the recovery eight years after the global financial crisis. It raised the specter that persistent stagnation, particularly in advanced economies, could further fuel populist calls for restrictions on trade and immigration. Obstfeld said such restrictions would hamper productivity, growth, and innovation.

    “It is vitally important to defend the prospects for increasing trade integration,’’ Obstfeld, said. “Turning back the clock on trade can only deepen and prolong the world economy’s current doldrums.”

    To support growth in the near term, the central banks in advanced economies should maintain easy monetary policies, the IMF said. But monetary policy alone won’t restore vigor to economies dogged by slowing productivity growth and aging populations, according to the new report. Where possible, governments should spend more on education, technology, and infrastructure to expand productive capacity while taking steps to alleviate inequality. Many countries also need to counteract waning potential growth through structural reforms to boost labor force participation, better match skills to jobs, and reduce barriers to market entry.

    The world economy will expand 3.1 percent this year, the IMF said, unchanged from its July projection. Next year, growth will increase slightly to 3.4 percent on the back of recoveries in major emerging market nations, including Russia and Brazil

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    China heading for 'financial crisis' IMF warns.

    China could be heading for a financial crisis due to the level of financial and corporate debt, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

    Markus Rodlauer, deputy director of the IMF's Asia-Pacific department, said the level of debt in the Chinese economy was on an "unsustainable path", adding that a financial problem in China would have "very serious repercussions" for the global economy.

    Mr Rodlauer told The Telegraph: “The level of financial and corporate debt and the complexity of the financial system and rapid growth in shadow banking is on an unsustainable path.

    “While still manageable in its size given the size of the public assets under public control, the trend is dangerous".

    “The longer it lasts ... the more serious the disturbance and the disruption might be. from a mild growth slowdown, to a sharp slowdown in growth to potentially a financial crisis.”

    Mr Rolauer, who has served as the IMF's China's mission chief for five years, added that an economic crisis in China would have serious implications for the rest of the world.

    He said: "There is no doubt that a calamity or a problem in China would have very serious repercussions for the global economy, both real and financial."

    The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook revealed debt in China was rising at a “dangerous pace”, while its Financial Stability Report showed small Chinese banks were heavily exposed to shadow credit as a share of capital buffers, with exposure reaching nearly 600pc at some banks.

    Growth investment by private firms in China fell to a new record low in the first half of this year and fixed asset investment growth in the first half slowed to 9 per cent, the weakest since March 2000.

    Last month a Harvard professor said China was the biggest threat to the global economy, and several international bodies have expressed concern about the slowdown in the Chinese economy in recent months.

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    World Economic Forum launches San Francisco tech policy center.

    The World Economic Forum, the Swiss-based group that sponsors that annual Davos gathering of world leaders, is opening a San Francisco office to explore policy and regulatory questions surrounding new technologies such as artificial intelligence, automated vehicles and blockchain.

    The office, called the Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, will have 50-60 people working on about 10 different projects by the end of the next year, Murat Sonmez, a one-time Silicon Valley entrepreneur who will lead the effort, said in an interview.

    The goal is to develop policy approaches to address the novel issues raised by new technologies, said the member of the forum's managing board. Many "policies and regulations were written before the Internet was invented. Policy-makers don't know what to do," he said.

    About half of the new center's staff will be full-timers and the rest will include fellows and others from industry, academia and government, Sonmez said.

    "Given the accelerating change brought on by innovation, continuous public-private cooperation on a global level is needed more than ever," Klaus Schwab, founder and chief executive of the forum, said in a statement.

    The Word Economic Forum holds regional events around the world and publishes research on the global economy.

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