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Thread: Daily global macro overview with Nigeria-Forex forum.

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    Global macro overview for 04/05/2018.

    Strengthening data from the US amid disappointments in other corners of the world is behind the recent wave of shortening of short positions in USD, hence today's report on the market is important for the further direction not only of the currency market but also the general attitude to risk. Especially stressing the discrepancy in the pace of recovery between the US and the EU turns upside down the whole assumptions behind trade at the beginning of the year. In recent days, the FOMC message did not add fuel to the fire because it emphasized the "symmetric" approach to the inflation target of 2.0% suggests the Fed's flexibility if inflation comes up higher. However, the valuation of approx. 1.5 increases for 2019-2020 already shows the already gentle market approach to the prospects of future Fed policy, so there is more room for hawkish changes. The weaker ISM is also not a cause for concern as it fits into global trends, yet US rates are higher than in other leading economies.

    The NFP report may have a stronger rebound in asset prices. If the market is seriously considering the fourth interest rate hike, the Fed must first receive evidence of the intensification of inflationary pressure, which seems to be accelerated wage growth. The consensus for April data is 0.2% m/m, which stabilizes the annual dynamics at 2.7%, thus below the peak of 2.8% from January. For the reactivation of the rally the USD bulls will, therefore, need a result of 0.3% or higher. In addition, after a six-month stop, the unemployment rate at 4.1%. the time has come to respond to the increase in employment by 1.27 million in this period. If the drop is stronger than 4.0%, it will be an additional hawkish signal. The employment dynamics, after the last swing caused by unruly weather, should return to normal, which means a reading in the range of 150k-200k (versus expected 192k).

    Let's take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 timeframe before the NFP data release. Even if the report would go below the market expectations (but not to the extreme), all that is needed is a correction of the last US dollar, but one reading is not enough to worry the Fed or to stop structural changes in investors' attitudes towards the dollar. With weak wages, risky assets can catch their breath, but too much disappointment will raise fears of a global slowdown, which will put aversion to risk. Therefore, even in this case, the USD may come out with a defensive hand (as a safe haven), although JPY will probably be the biggest winner in this case. On the USD/JPY chart, the momentum is clearly pointing to the downside as the market is testing the local technical support at the level of 108.97. Any breakout low will open the road towards the level of 108.54 and 108.43. On the other hand, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 109.58 and at the swing high at the level of 110.03.


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  4. #202
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    Global macro overview for 14/05/2018.

    Japan is the most indebted developed country in the world. At present, the country's debt is 2.4 times higher than the gross domestic product, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. In 2013-2017, Japan paid 7.4 trillion yen (68 billion USD) for servicing T-bonds of 630 trillion JPY. This means that the state saved 4.9 billion JPY ( $45 billion) if we compare the average debt servicing cost incurred in 2012.

    The funds saved can be enough to pay the annual defense spending. All because of the quantitative easing conducted by the Japanese central bank. Loans costs thanks to this were in the vicinity (and even below) of zero. This is to help domestic entrepreneurs and encourage them to take out loans and increase spending. Nevertheless, the key question is how much the nation can borrow and how sustainable the existing debt is. By keeping borrowing costs low, the central bank aims to make it easier for companies to borrow and spend. It also relieves pressure on the government to achieve its target of stopping the increase in debt, as the BOJ has replaced the market in setting bond yields.

    The Bank of Japan long-term inflation target is still at the level of 2.0%. If inflation will reach this level, the BOJ may start looking to normalize policy by cutting back asset purchases and raising interest rates. That would cause the cost of issuing new bonds to rise, worsening the nation's fiscal position. Moreover, the Japanese Yen would start to massively appreciate across the board in the currency market.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. There is a possible Double Top formation at the level of 110.00, so the mid-term top might be in place already. Moreover, the market has fallen out of the rising channel, which confirms the negative outlook for the week. So far, the navy trend line provides the support, but in a case of a downside breakout, the next support is seen at the level of 108.81 and 108.62.



    ---------- Post added 05-15-2018 at 12:17 PM ---------- Previous post was 05-14-2018 at 04:04 PM ----------

    The unemployment rate remained in the first quarter at the level of 4.2%, in level with expectations. The payroll dynamics - also in line with forecasts - slowed from 2.8 to 2.6%, but the index excluding the premium was placed at 0.1 percentage point higher than before, or 2.9%. This is the highest value in three years. The data is absolutely in line with expectations, and the minimal flaw in the labor market image is a stronger increase in the number of people claiming benefits. The readings do not add anything new to the discussion about the date of the next interest rate hike, moreover, another important publication is the next week's inflation reading (scheduled on 23.05).

    In the last week, the pound was among the weaker currencies from the main currency group and did not gain against the dollar at that time. In the first reaction to a set of data from the UK labor market, GBP/USD moved from around 1.3530 to 1.3550 but still, the demand side cannot break away at a safe distance from 1.35 and this year's lows. Just published data from the British labor market may not be enough to improve the sentiment around the pound sterling. On the contrary, in the eyes of a significant number of market participants, with a stronger dollar and yields of US 10Y debt flirting with a key resistance of 3.05%, they may be a good opportunity to sell a pound. The key technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3617, located at the top of the consolidation zone between the levels of 1.3460 - 1.3617.


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    Global macro overview for 16/05/2018.

    The global investors are increasingly worried about the state of the 17th economy in the world. On Wednesday morning the Turks had to pay nearly 4.50 lira for one dollar, which is more than 1% more than the day before. At the beginning of the year, the American currency was less than 3.80 lira. This means that in 2018, the lira lost over 15% of its value against the US dollar. The euro rate rose to 5.31 lira and also set a historical maximum.

    At noon, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) issued a short statement with the following content: "The CBRT closely monitors the unhealthy price movements in the markets. Necessary actions will be taken, also in relation to the impact of these events on inflation prospects." The market could interpret this as a signal that CBTR is ready to make an emergency interest rate increase if it seems appropriate. As a result, the dollar exchange rate fell from 4.50 to approx. 4.42 lira within a dozen or so minutes.

    The "depreciation spiral" in which the Turkish currency has fallen is largely the result of the terrible economic policy pursued on the Bosphorus. The Turkish central bank cannot (or does not want) tame the galloping, exceeding 10% per annum, price inflation. A rapidly growing imbalance in the current account, which already exceeds the equivalent of 6% of GDP, is now another problem for the Turkish economy. Under such conditions, a professional and independent central bank definitely raises interest rates to stop a dangerous credit boom. But the monetary authorities of Turkey cannot do it, because the president who exercises almost the Sultan's rule is a sworn enemy of high-interest rates. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has a somewhat bizarre view that high rates are driving inflation.

    On Tuesday, Erdogan announced that after winning the elections scheduled for June 24 (in the fact that they will win, probably no one doubts), he will still expand its influence on economic policy, which may deprive the central bank of the remaining freedom in shaping interest rates at all.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture at the H1 time frame after the CBRT verbal intervention was made. The price fell sharply from the level of 4.5011 to the lows around the level of 4.4043 but did not break below the technical support at the level of 4.3732. This level is a short-term key for further depreciation of the US dollar. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 4.2189. Obviously, the market conditions are extremely overbought and there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator, which additionally support the bearish short-term outlook.


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    Global macro overview for 17/05/2018.

    Another bunch of economic data from the US was published yesterday. Industrial production in April increased by 0.7% m/m (an increase of 0.6% was expected). Capacity utilization amounted to 78% (versus expected 78.4%). Data on a started construction of houses and permits for their construction showed that 3.7% fewer construction projects were started in April (an increase of 0.4% was expected) and 1.8% fewer permits were issued (a 2.4% drop was expected). On Wednesday, Wall Street could show that Tuesday's slumps in the indexes were just an accident at work, and players slowly get used to a higher than 3% yield on ten-year bonds. It would be a strong signal to buy shares. Of course, the alternative was the continuation of the correction. It turned out that the bulls still in control of the market, despite the fact that they had a strong dollar against each other and still growing bond yields in an increasingly difficult geopolitical situation. And yet, the indexes grew. At the beginning of the session there was a lot of hesitation, but from her half the bulls definitely took the wheel into their own hands. The session ended with an increase in the SP500 index (0.41%).

    Of course Wall Street did not react to what was happening in Europe. How could it react if indexes in Europe (especially in Germany) grew? It was quite strange to behave in a situation where ideas forming the new government in Italy, the Northern League and the 5 Stars Movement, overestimated the euro. These parties want, that the ECB should give them EUR 250 billion which they bought from the market within QE. The idea is so absurd that it's probably why traders on European stock exchanges have not reacted. Only the index on the Italian stock market was losing. Other European investors, however, should also react because such an Italian government could lead to turbulence worse than what the Donald Trump administration does.

    In conclusion, Tuesday's decline was definitely no sign of a longer fall in indices. The global investors seem to get used to high bond yields and a strong dollar. It is said that the bull market continues when the indexes climb the wall of fear. It seems that this is the situation we are seeing.

    Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market has hit the technical resistance at the level of 274.20 and today's the price has gaped down towards the level of 269.87. The high at the level of 274.20 might be considered as a new higher high and any breakout above this level would lead to the test of the next technical resistance at the level of 278.85. Nevertheless, the market conditions are now overbought, so a temporary pull-back towards the level of 267.96 would be a good move before another wave up will take place.


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    Global macro overview for 18/05/2018.

    The overnight Japan national CPI data slowed to 0.7% on yearly basis in April, down from 0.9% and below the expectations of 0.8%. That's the second month of decline and it moved further away from Bank of Japan 2.0% inflation target. It's also the lowest level since September 2017 and off recent cyclical high of 1.0% set in February. Overall CPI slowed to 0.6% yoy, down from 1.1% yoy. The other index of CPI, excluding food and energy, slowed to just 0.4% yoy, down from 0.5% yoy.

    Recently, BoJ had abandoned the time frame for which the economy will meet the 2.0% inflation target. Moreover, the bank maintained the stance to continue with the ultra-loose monetary policy. Nevertheless, while recent surge in oil price could help raise overall and ex-food CPI ahead, the core CPI data remained worryingly weak. That's why the ongoing BoJ easying program cloud now is continuing without any particular deadline as there is still no inflationary pressures on the horizon.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market keeps trading inside of a rising parallel channel and it made another local high at the level of 111.03 in overbought conditions. As long as the price will stay inside of the channel, the outlook remains bullish.The risks to this outlook are any safe haven flows which might see JPY strengthen. The nearest technical supports for the pride are seen at the level of 110.43 and 110.03.


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    Global macro overview for 23/05/2018.

    After disappointing data from Eurozone economies, the common currency is again under the pressure. The PMI data for Germany was worse both than the consensus and previous readings: PMI Services were at the level of 52.1 (versus 53.2 expected and 53.0 prior) and PMI Manufacturing was released at the level of 56.8 (versus 57.9 expected, 58.1 prior). The Composite PMI is, as a result, the lowest since September last year and is 53.1 pts or more than 6 pts below the January peak. The analogy for France is even worse, which fell the lowest since the beginning of last year (54.5 versus 56.6 expected and 56.7 prior).

    The PMI data for the whole Eurozone were as well worse than expected. The PMI Manufacturing was released at the level of 55.5, while the global investors expected 56.1 points after 56.2 points a month ago. The PMI Services was worse too, as it was released at the level of 53.9 (versus expected 54.5 and 54.6 prior). Overall the Composite PMI for the Eurozone was lowered to the level of 54.1 points.

    A series of weak data from Eurozone is worryingly prolonging, which is increasingly affecting the expectations of the ECB policy and, as a result, the common currency is becoming more and more pressure, so the EUR will likely be depreciating again across the board. Nevertheless, there is no reason to panic as the PMI indices are still above their fifty level which separates the economic expansion from contraction, so the worse than expected data might be just a part of the temporary correction.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the PMI data were published. The pair dropped towards the technical support at the level of 1.1717 and broke through it. The new local low was made at the level of 1.1698 in oversold market conditions. The nearest resistance is seen at the level of 1.1742 and 1.1749. Please notice the downtrend is now mature and corrective pull-back might occur anytime.


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    Global macro overview for 25/05/2018.

    The British Pound yesterday's retail sales data were much better than expected (1.6% versus 0.8% expected and -1.1% prior). The behavior of the course after the data, in form of a rapid extinguishing of the increase over 1.34, perfectly illustrates how weak sentiment prevails around the British currency. The UK GDP revision published today is another important reading, which will determine how high chances of an increase in rates in the United Kingdom are in August. Despite the first reading that came out surprisingly poorly, there is still no some room for revision up as the data were just as expected at the level of 0.1%. In addition, the contribution of individual components and, thus, the answer to doubts about the power of demand, is so far rather weak. The Business Investment index decline -0.2% while the increase of 0.2% was expected and it dropped to the yearly low of 2.0%. The Index of Services was released at the level of 0.3%, in line with expectations.

    In conclusion, the dynamics of British GDP in the first quarter was confirmed at 0.1% Q/Q. and 1.2% Y/Y. GBP / USD stays around 1.3360, and the data does not contribute anything from the point of view of the Bank of England's policy outlook. Given the confusion on the political scene and the weakening position of Theresa May's cabinet, we remain negative towards the pound and expect a continuation of its downfall in the mid-term.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. The initial reaction to the data release was to the downside, but now the market is not trying to break through the intraday resistance at the level of 1.3368. In a case of a successful breakout, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3391 and 1.3451. The swing low at the level of 1.3306 is now the most important support for the market.


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    Global macro overview for 28/05/2018.

    Last week did not abound in important macroeconomic publications. The exception is Wednesday, which, however, brought disappointments. The values of PMI indices for European economies have failed, which contributed (to the company with the noise from the Italian political scene) to deepening the EUR / USD sell-off to 1.1675. The inflation from Great Britain also failed. Although the reading was only slightly lower than the consensus, the GBP / USD fell to 1.33. The August hike in the Bank of England is becoming increasingly questionable. All those who counted on finding hawkish goodies in the minutes of the FOMC meeting in May disappointed. The June hike is decided, but the market has not received any further guidance. It took the arguments of a tired monthly rally dollar, but on the pound side, the euro is too vain to look for positives that would lead to a stronger correction. The yen is slightly different as the USD / JPY pair fell almost from 111.50 to 109.00 after the sentiment deteriorated. The reason was Donald Trump and his canceling the meeting with the leader of North Korea and reminding him painfully that he did not lose any protectionist in trade policy. Although the yield on US 10y debt clearly turned back and fell back under 3%, the pressure on emerging markets currencies did not weaken.

    The start of this week is calm, among other things due to the holiday in the USA (Memorial Day). Then the events will start to gain momentum quickly. In the Eurozone, Tuesday is the publication of monetary aggregates - data interesting and important from the point of view of the ECB policy, but not having the potential to shake up the market. It will be different on Wednesday and Thursday, when information about the initial price dynamics in May (from Germany and the entire Eurozone) will arrive. It can be assumed that the dynamics of consumer prices will approach the goal of monetary policy. If this happens, not only due to higher fuel prices, but also to a rebound in core inflation, this may be an important contribution to investors again thinking about the overpriced euro. The more so that the issue of Italian politics will quickly go to the background. However, a deeper improvement in data is needed for a lasting rebound of the euro. The Friday reading of the PMI index will be less interesting than the first values of indicators for peripheral economies, namely Spain of Italy.

    The second part of the week is also a spill of data from the USA. On Wednesday, we will see the second estimate of GDP for the first quarter and part of the market expects a downward revision. In addition, consumer sentiment and the change of employment in the private sector will be published according to ADP. In addition, the light will be read by the beige Fed Book, ie a descriptive diagnosis of the state of the economy, taking into account the economic situation in individual regions. Of course, the document should, above all, look for signs of intensification of price and wage pressure. On Thursday, apart from the traditional publication of the number of applications for benefits, we will learn, among other things, further information from the braking real estate market, expenses and revenues of Americans and the basic PCE deflator. The most important, however, may be the Chicago PMI index, which, like the regional barometers, should increase. The moods of American industry again clearly diverge from the sentiment of the industry on the other side of the Atlantic. The first Friday of the month are publications on the condition of the labor market in May. Strong growth in employment and record low unemployment no longer surprise anyone. USD needs to accelerate wage pressure. In addition, we will get to know the ISM index, which should confirm the good condition of the industrial sector following other barometers.

    Let's now take a look at the DAX technical picture at the H4 time frame before the Eurozone data are published. The market has retraced 23% of the previous swing up so far and reached the level of 12,796. The bounce from this level was short-lived and shallow, so now the bears might challenge again the level of support at 12,796. In a case of a breakout lower, the next technical support is seen at the level of 12,642 (38% Fibo) and 12,600. Please notice the oversold market conditions.


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    Global macro overview for 29/05/2018.

    The dollar remains strong at the end of the month. Although the US currency has had several weeks of appreciation behind it and the latest signals from the Fed, ie readiness to accept the temporary intensification of inflation could suggest that a correction is necessary. The main driving force behind the dollar was the sharp rise in debt yields. The recent intensification of risk aversion and withdrawal on the oil market made the benchmark ten-year profitability dropped to 2.90 in more than a dozen days, it dropped by as much as 20 bp.

    Italian problems with the formation of the government evolve into a constitutional crisis, and the dynamics of events in the case of early elections (September) favors the extreme right and anti-establishment fractions. This exerts a strong influence on the situation on the bond market and at the same time may result in postponing the date of policy standardization. Draghi, joining the debt crisis, announced several years ago that the ECB would do everything it could to suppress the spiral of the sale of government bonds. The bank achieved great success at a great expense, but now it would be a mistake to normalize the policy too fast, all the more so because core inflation does not show obvious signs of acceleration. Even without political chaos, the Euroland's economy surprisingly slowed down. It is worth noting that investors in this environment cool their enthusiasm for the prospects of European banks - industry subindex Stoxx 600 falls from 10 May by more than 5.0% and stands on the edge of opening the path to even deeper slide. This is an interesting issue because during the sovereign debt crisis the relative strength of the stock market indices was significantly correlated with the EUR/USD exchange rate.

    Let's then take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bears have managed to push the price lower towards the level of 1.1509, which was just above the important daily technical support at the level of 1.1545. The market conditions remain extremely oversold on multiple time frames, but there is still no sign of a correction. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1644. The key level to the upside remains at 1.1746.


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  13. #210
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    Global macro overview for 30/05/2018.

    Unfortunately, we can not see the end of the political crisis in Italy so far. The nominee Prime Minister Carlo Cottarelli has not presented the composition of his temporary government to the president. In addition, there is a risk that the technical government will not receive a vote of confidence in the parliament. The largest groups such as the Five Star Movement or the League are already announcing that they will not support the government. This makes it very likely that early elections will be announced soon, which may have stabilized the situation and would not deepen the crisis of the markets' confidence in the Italian economy. Theoretically, there is little time to influence the political preferences of Italians who, according to recent surveys, would entrust power to populists from the 5 Stars and Northern League Movement. The dynamics of financial markets shows, however, that one does not have to wait long for topics to reach the headlines of the media. Can fear, however, be an effective tool for practicing politics? Time will tell.

    Above all, the very strong increase in the profitability of Italian bonds is worrying, which means that some economists are already warning against the next debt crisis in Europe. Investors are slowly losing confidence in Italian bonds. This may also complicate the plans to leave loose monetary policy for the European Central Bank.

    The weaker investment climate is conducive to the strengthening of the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc considered safe harboring. In addition, there is a positive sentiment towards the US currency. The dollar index approached yesterday in the vicinity of local maxima from October-November 2017 running around 95.00 points. Today, important data for USD will be published regarding PCE core inflation and the revision of US GDP for the first quarter of this year, which should support the current Federal Reserve monetary policy.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 timeframe as this is the currency pair that is being perceived as a safe-haven during a turmoil and uncertain times. The market fell out of the channel and has found a low at the lower boundary of the technical support zone at the level of 108.09 so far. The bounce from this level is corrective in nature and might indicate only a temporary pull-back towards the levels of 108.81 - 109.10. In order to regain the control over the market the bulls would have to break out back above the level of 109.83 - 110.00. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 107.91 - 107.48 and might be violated very quickly if the Italian crisis gets even worse.


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