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Thread: Daily global macro overview with Nigeria-Forex forum.

  1. #161
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    Global macro overview for 28 December, 2017.

    It will take about a week to repair the damaged infrastructure in the Es Sider terminal after the explosion of the oil transporting pipeline in Libya last Tuesday. Oil production in Libya fell by 12.0% below 1 million barrels per day to 950 thousand bpd. Before the gas pipeline explosion, the crude oil production was 1.08 million bpd. Loading of oil in Es Sider dropped by 50.0%, and this month it was expected to load the raw material for 13 tankers, each for 600,000 barrels of oil.

    On the other hand, the US received information that oil stocks fell last week. The American Petroleum Institute reported that inventories decreased by 5.96 million barrels. Today, market participants will receive another inventories data from the US Department of Energy (DoE) at 03:30 pm GMT. Analysts expect a drop in US oil stocks of 3.90 million barrels after another drop last week of 6.48 million barrels. Market participants can expect a slight decline in quotations and then a stable level, because despite the fact that the US oil stocks are declining, the price growth may halt the higher shale oil production in the US .

    Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still hovering around the level of $60.00 in overbought trading conditions. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $59.04 and it looks like it might be tested soon. As long as the golden trend line is not violated, the trend remains bullish.


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  3. #162
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    Global macro overview for 04 January, 2018.

    The macroeconomic background around the US Dollar remains positive, so it's wrong to look for reasons to keep selling the currency. On Wednesday ISM Manufacturing data was released above forecasts and it only confirmed that the recovery at the end of 2017 sustained a solid pace. The dollar did not react much, after all, the improvement of the economic situation is now a sign for the whole global economy. Wall Street, however, has improved its recent all-time high levels, so investors appreciate the economic data at least at some levels. The minutes of the December FOMC meeting also changed very little. Much discussion about inflation, the impact of the tax law and the yield curve, but the overall message was not surprising - the Fed is constructive with regard to the state of the economy and does not give the market grounds to doubt the forecast of three interest rate hikes this year. But as in the case of the ISM, the market participants did not learn anything that they did not hear yet.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market retraced almost 50% of the recent leg down, but the bull camp was top weak to test the golden trend line from below. This bounce higher was expected due to the oversold market conditions at this time frame, so now the next target level is the technical resistance at the level of 113.09. On the other hand, the key technical support is seen at the level of 112.02.


  4. #163
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    Global macro overview for 10 January, 2018.

    The passing night brings two waves of sudden appreciation of the Japanese Yen without a clear justification in the news feed, although the technical levels breaking and the flight of investors who do not know what is happening is doing its job. As yesterday's USD / JPY drop would have been a reaction to reducing the volume of T-bonds from the secondary market bought by the Bank of Japan, today the move has come from nowhere. At the same time, any speculation regarding a faster than anticipated monetary policy tightening in Japan is premature. Inflation is much below the BoJ target (0.6% vs. 2%), and if you look for key elements of the BoJ monetary expansion, then not in the volume of cyclical bond purchase auctions, but in the policy of stabilizing 10Y Treasury yields close to 0%. If BoJ is able to achieve this goal with less expense it will end up positively for all market participants. What's more, in the past, BoJ showed that as soon as yields are to escape over 0.1%, the bank decides to buy unlimited bonds. For now, however, the currency market is following its bizarre path, because inter-market dependencies do not support USD / JPY declines. Yields of 10-year US bonds in the last 24 hours jumped 9 bps to 2.57%; the index of Tokyo Nikkei 225 is at its most since 1991! Such discrepancies in asset relations do not last long, but for the time being, we have to let the market move its own direction.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market dropped below the technical support at the level of 112.02 and now is testing another support at the level of 111.45. The key technical support is still at the level of 110.82. Please notice the bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator.


  5. #164
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    Global macro overview for 18 January, 2018.

    The Bank of Canada hiked the overnight rate from 1.00% to 1.25% yesterday, just as expected by the market consensus. This interest rate hike was previously priced in by market at 90%. In the BoC Rate Statement, the bank stressed that the economic situation justifies further increases, but high private indebtedness and growing concerns about the future of NAFTA agreement are the main factors to slow down the rate of normalization. Therefore, this rate hike was very familiar to last Bank of England interest rate hike, which was a "dovish" and conditional hike.

    There is no question that the Canadian economy, in general, has improved significantly on field of the retail sales, GDP growth, CPI, and employment activity over the last couple of months, nevertheless the BoC had more options than to raise interest rates immediately such as signaling plans to tighten in March a "hawkish" hold. It will be very interesting to watch the BoC decision next time as there is still a possibility of a cut if the economic conditions worsen.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After an initial spike, the market reversed back to the consolidation zone and it still sits there today. None of the important levels was violated and the momentum has switched to neutral. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2350 and the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2556.


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  7. #165
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    Global macro overview for 19 January, 2018.

    The political turmoil in Germany is doing its best. On Sunday there will be a congress of the German SPD party, on which there are big chances to reject the idea of forming the Great Coalition with Angela Merkel's CDU party. In this case, Germany may wait for repeated elections or the CDU will decide on a minority government, which, however, Merkel does not want. For EUR, as for USD, the result of political scuffles can be positive or negative. However, how much political stability in Germany is an important factor building the strength of the EUR? It is certainly losing on importance with market expectations for the hawkish ECB comeback next Thursday, but during the period of deadly anticipation of the statement after the meeting, the SPD's rejection of the coalition may easily turn into a reason to push the Euro off. For now, however, it remains in a waiting mode until Monday.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame from the Elliott Wave point of view. The top of the wave (iii) is already in place at the level of 1.2321 and now the market has entered a corrective cycle wave (iv). The first three waves to the downside are done and the price has hit 38% Fibo (minimal requirements are met), but there is still a chance for a more complex and time-consuming corrective pattern is a form of a triangle. The next support is seen at the level of 1.2166 and the next resistance at the level of 1.2321.


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