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Thread: Daily global macro overview with Nigeria-Forex forum.

  1. #171
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    Global macro overview for 12 February, 2018.

    The worst week from March last year was on the horizon for Crude Oil, when after the months of incoming upward news, the US production increased sharply, and there was a seasonal drop in demand from refineries. It forced the cash managers to reduce the long-standing position that is no longer possible to maintain. Although, as a result of production cuts, supply disruptions, and strong demand, fundamental forecasts have improved over the last six months, one can now ask whether USD 70 per barrel was not one step too far at this stage.

    The efforts of the OPEC cartel to limit global production in order to increase prices have intensified again. Once again, the reaction from non-OPEC producers surprised the market. In the last monthly forecast, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) raised the forecasted level of oil production in the United States. After breaking the level of 10 million barrels a day, the Administration expects that in November this year - one year earlier than expected - the US production will exceed 11 million barrels a day. The sale accelerated after the publication of the weekly inventory report in the United States, which showed an increase for the second week in a row. This is another proof that the markets are entering a period of seasonal decline in demand from the refinery due to conservation work; this period usually lasts until April. The estimated weekly oil production was increased by 332,000 barrels per day to the level of 10.25 million barrels per day, thus surpassing production in Saudi Arabia for the first time since 1990.

    Despite contributing to the sharp rise in global oil prices since June last year, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members together with Russia are now beginning to pay the price for these activities in the form of a loss of market share to non-OPEC producers. In the short-term perspective, the risk of falling prices as a result of the above-mentioned non-OPEC production is more important.

    Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has dropped towards the level of 58.06 and then tried to bounce to test the golden channel lower line, but so far failed to rally higher. The technical resistance at the level of 61.08 is still too strong for bulls, even despite oversold market conditions. The main support still lies at the level of 58.55 - 59.04.


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  3. #172
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    Global macro overview for 13 February, 2018.

    During Tuesday's trading session, investors' eyes were turned towards the British Pound due to a publication of inflation data in the United Kingdom. This release was particularly awaited by the market participants after the Bank of England signaled a possible faster pace of interest rate hikes. It turned out, the CPI inflation was higher than expected by market consensus. The consumer price and services index stabilized in January at 3.0% y/y against expected drop to 2.9% y/y. In turn, core CPI inflation increased more than anticipated - to 2.7% from 2.5% per annum. On the other hand, PPI inflation decelerated slightly. The above data together with better prospects for the British economy support expectations for the start of a cycle of monetary policy tightening by BoE. Risk aversion and uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations now have a greater impact on the Pound than CPI data.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has tried to rally after the data was released, but dropped eventually to test the recent technical support at the level of 148.90. It is worth to notice, that the market conditions are now oversold and there is a clear bullish divergence forming between the price and the momentum indicator, which might spark a bounce towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 150.44 and above.


  4. #173
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    Global macro overview for 14 February, 2018.

    At the end of 2017, American citizens' debts exceeded the historic amount from the third quarter of 2008 - the New York Federal Reserve informed. However, there is no concern about this state of affairs on the financial markets yet.The total debt of Americans due to mortgage loans, credit cards, student loans or debts for the purchase of a car is 13,150,000,000,000 Dollars. This astronomical amount of USD 13.15 trillion (USD 13.150 billion) was 473 billion USD higher than the previous record from the third quarter of 2008 (12.68 billion USD). However, while in 2009 the household debt in the US was 87% of the gross domestic product, currently the ratio is 67%. From the bottom of the second quarter of 2013, the debts of American households increased by 17.9%. Only in 2017, American debts have grown by 572 billion USD. At the same time, the US savings rate has fallen close to 2.0% - the lowest level in a decade. More than 75% of the debt balance were mortgage loans amounting to a total of 8.88 trillion dollars. That is 139 billion USD more than a quarter earlier. To this must be added 444 billion USD of the balance of loans taken out against property.

    Although Americans' debts have hit the crisis record, their replayability is generally the same or even better than Lehman Brothers's bankruptcy. With the exception of increasingly troublesome student loans (where more than 10% of loans have a delay in repayment exceeding 90 days), the situation looks quite good. However, we should take into consideration the fact that interest rates in the United States are still very low and the unemployment rate has remained at its lowest level in 17 years. When the prosperity is over and the cost of credit increases, America will have another credit hangover.

    Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has tested the technical support at the level of 89.64, dipped a little more, but now is bouncing back towards the level of 90.11. If the bulls will get strong enough to break out above the level of 90.50, the price might return to the main channel and try to test the next technical resistance at the level of 90.98.


  5. #174
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    Global macro overview for 16 February, 2018.

    The agreement between the OPEC countries and Russia regarding the limitation of oil production has been going on for over a year and it can be said that the goals set at the beginning were achieved partially. First of all, the oil market was balanced, which was clearly supported by the global economic recovery. The demand for black gold remains strong, and the latest example is the data from India, where in January imports reached a record level of 4.93 million barrels daily, which means an increase of 13.6% compared to the previous year. As a result, global gas reserves, which dropped by 154 million barrels last year, are only 52 million barrels above the five-year average. This drop is supported by the stable ratio of excess demand growth over the growth of supply, which has been going on since the beginning of last year. As a result, the number of oil tankers off the coast of Singapore and Malaysia fell from 40 in mid-2016 to less than 15 in February this year. In addition, if they were filled to the brim before and they are not now. The second important goal of the cartel was the desire to change the price relationship in the futures market, so that the price of the raw material with immediate delivery was not lower than the price with deferred date of completion. This scheme is called contago and encourages oil storage. Currently, however, the price structure is reversed, what is called backwardation and makes the storage of oil for its later sale lose its meaning. Thus, OPEC may be happy with itself, but the main problem is the rapidly growing production in the US, which has already overtaken the export leader Saudi Arabia, and later this year may overtake Russia and take the place of the largest producer in the world. This means that the barely achieved balance on the market is fragile. In this context, the latest signals from OPEC are not surprised that there will be no sudden termination of the agreement, and work on a long-term form of cooperation with Russia is underway.

    Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the support at the level of 58.06 again and moved higher towards the level of 62.10. The momentum is still strong and points to the north, so there is a possibility of another rally higher if the level of 62.10 is violated. On the other hand, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 61.08.


  6. #175
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    Global macro overview for 22 February, 2018.

    In the last three months of 2017, the British economy grew at a quarterly rate of 0.4%, which clearly disappointed economists as a rise of 0.5% was expected. The lower reading was significantly influenced by lower individual consumption (0.3%, consensus: 0.4%), whose impact was strongly sought by the increase in the government spending (0.6%, consensus: 0.3%) or returning to favor investments in fixed assets (1.1%, consensus: 0.5%). The trade data also failed to provide support to the British economy. In quarterly terms, the volume of exports fell by 0.2% with an expected increase of 0.5%. Only the Services Index data has beat the expectations of 0.4% as the number released was slightly better at the level of 0.6%.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the data was published. The pound remains relatively insensitive to the above indications. In the first reaction, GBP/USD fell by about 10 pips to the level of 1.3880 so far, but the recent breakout through the technical support at the level of 1.3921 looks irreversible. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.3818 and it might be tested soon, as the momentum is below its fifty level and clearly points to the downside.


  7. #176
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    Global macro overview for 27 February, 2018.

    In his speech in the European Parliament, The European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi demanded a central role in the supervision of clearing central counterparties (CCPs), yet struck a more flexible tone than some European politicians who want the multi-trillion Euro clearing industry to be removed from London City. Draghi made it clear that he sees Brexit as a reason for the EU to speed up the pact of regulations which will give the ECB more power over clearing houses in London financial center and beyond. Draghi said he wants to "stress the crucial importance of finalizing the adoption of key pieces of EU legislation, such as Emir II, well in advance of Brexit, in order to be prepared for all possible contingencies, including a no-deal scenario." The latest update of the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (Emir II) would allow the ECB to directly regulate third-country clearinghouses, with the possibility of stricter rules or even forcing systemically important firms to move their operations to the Eurozone. The rules are currently being discussed in the European Parliament and could pass as soon as the end of the year.

    London City is the biggest in the world financial center, where companies use derivatives to hedge against the risk of a whole host of market movements, such as changes in interest rates or foreign exchange, and the vast majority of euro-denominated banking clearing currently taking place in the UK. It would be a huge loss for the London and the whole UK if this center would have been moved in one of the European cities like Frankfurt, Brussel or even Warsaw.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe while the London is still the world financial center. The market is still trading below the golden trend line in a narrow range between the levels of 1.3921 - 1.3986. The momentum is hovering around its fifty level as well, which indicates more sideways price action.


  8. #177
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    Global macro overview for 01 March, 2018.

    The events of the last weeks confirm the Fed's president Jerome Powell in the belief that the US economy will deliver a high level of performance. During the speech in front of Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve presented an optimistic vision of the current and future condition of the economy and confirmed his belief in further interest rate increases in the US. He expects the economy to maintain high demand, including export, rebound of investments and maintaining positive moods among US companies. The fiscal policy will have a stimulating effect on economic growth in the coming quarters. He expects inflation to return to the 2.0% target and stay it in this area in the medium term. In his opinion, wages will also increase faster in the future. Under these conditions, it is reasonable, in the words of J. Powell, to maintain the current line of gradual removal of monetary policy accommodation (making interest rate increases), which will support the statutory goals of the bank.

    The statement of the Fed's Chairperson can be considered moderately hawkish. He included in it a sentence that part of the factors in the recent years influencing economic activity in the US in a negative way (headwinds) began to push the economy forward (tailwinds). In this context, he mentioned the fiscal policy (tax cuts) and external demand. Financial conditions in the markets also facilitate running a business. The market has increased expectations for Fed rate hikes this year. The base scenario of three moves upwards by 25 points each started to be almost fully discounted, while one more market currently estimates at approx. 30%. Some economists are wondering whether, on the occasion of the next meeting, the Federal Reserve will not decide to raise the rate projection to just four hikes by the end of the year. This would be a good news for the US Dollar and bad for stocks, Gold and commodities.

    The second part of J.Powell testimony in front of Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives starts today at 03:00 pm GMT.

    Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has managed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 90.59 and currently is trying to rally higher towards the next resistance at the level of 90.98. Strong momentum and favorable market conditions are supporting this outlook.


  9. #178
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    Global macro overview for 05/03/2018

    Italy might become a serious problem with the newly elected parliament members

    The Italian political scene has been unstable for decades as it was capable to establish 65 governments in 73 years, with only Berlusconi maintained power for a full term. The Constitution does not allow for effective governance and implementation of reforms. The result of yesterday's parliamentary elections, the winner of which is the anti-hostilities Movement of Five Stars threatens a long path because at the moment the only coalition is the marriage of the center-left with the mentioned Five-Star Movement. There is definitely a positive situation, but also the course of events can hardly be described as a shocking.Yet.

    The tense political situation in Italy is mitigated by reports from Germany: the majority of SPD members agreed to form a government with the Christian Democrats, which crowns the process of several-month coalition talks and will allow Angela Merkel, who has ruled for twelve years, to create a fourth cabinet. However, the policy also does not help the US Dollar, because the return to protectionist rhetoric raises concerns about trade and currency wars. There is also a British Pound in the queue, which was heavily sold last week - optimists counting on the lack of Brexit or so-called soft Brexit experienced a collision with reality and more tense relations between London and Brussels. One can not forget about the weak position of Theresa May's cabinet on the national political scene.

    Let's take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture in the H4 time frame. In the case of the euro, the market participants do not expect political factors to take over again. Indeed, there should be a minimal increase in the credit risk valuation (the yield spread of debt of Italy and Germany should slightly widen), but it will not be able to dominate the quotes. Investors will quickly move to the expectation of key events at the end of the week, which is Thursday's meeting of the European Central Bank and data from the US labor market, which we will meet on Friday. Until then, the price should move inside of the consolidation zone between the levels of 0.8688 - 0.9017.


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  11. #179
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    Global macro overview for 06/03/2018.

    The beginning of this week brought a deterioration in the US Dollar prices across the board. The market participants cannot really blame the poor data releases because yesterday's final PMI reading for services in February was slightly higher than expected and amounted to 55.9 points. On the other hand, the ISM index for services slightly decreased to the level of 59.5 points from 59.9 points in January. Today, the focus will be on data about orders for durable goods as well as industrial orders. Markets will also be sensitive to monetary policy issues presented by Fed members - both William Dudley and Lael Brainard will take grab the investors attention later toady. Nevertheless, the market seems to be waiting for the end of the week data releases in form of the US labor market data, but those should not change the market expectations for the Fed interest rate hike in March.

    Let's now take a look at EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair has managed to erase most of yesterday's down movement caused by a reaction to the result of parliamentary elections in Italy. Currently, the rate fluctuates around the level of 1.2340 in anticipation of new impulses that may become a stimulus to break out of the wider range. So far the first step wad made ant the technical resistance at the level of 1.2366 had been violated, so the next target for bulls is at the level of 1.2537 (last swing high).


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    Global macro overview for 08 March, 2018.

    The markets have recently been severely damaged by the protectionist threats from Donald Trump. The position of the US President's strong emphasis on trade policy issues hampers a stronger rebound of the dollar. The market behaves in this situation like a beaten dog. He got so many kicks from Trump that he would be suspicious about his hand, which wants to pet him, that is, to speculate about the announced eased position (especially against Canada and Mexico). Optimism can be seen in the sharp drop in USD / CAD, but for example, the rise of Wall Street slowed down before an important level of 2725 - 2730 points.

    Investors cannot decide what to make the leitmotif of quotations. From the more hawkish Fed and fiscal policy, which are to push the US debt profitability to new highs (over 3.0% in the case of ten-year securities), or for fear of trade wars. It is noteworthy that both factors are negative for the world of emerging markets. In many of the markets in this catalog, extensive items have grown up, which in the current chaos will crumble and this process can be violent and painful.

    Let's now take a look at the SPY (SP500 ETF) technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a lower high at the level of 279.01 and then dropped towards the level of 264.70. Recently, the bulls tried to rally again, but so far the price was capped at the level of 273.42. This will be the key short-term technical resistance for the price to break out higher towards the level of 275.27. If the bulls will permanently fail here, then the test of the nearest technical support at the level of 269.94 is unavoidable as the market conditions looks overbought.


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