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Thread: Daily global macro overview with Nigeria-Forex forum.

  1. #171
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    Global macro overview for 12 February, 2018.

    The worst week from March last year was on the horizon for Crude Oil, when after the months of incoming upward news, the US production increased sharply, and there was a seasonal drop in demand from refineries. It forced the cash managers to reduce the long-standing position that is no longer possible to maintain. Although, as a result of production cuts, supply disruptions, and strong demand, fundamental forecasts have improved over the last six months, one can now ask whether USD 70 per barrel was not one step too far at this stage.

    The efforts of the OPEC cartel to limit global production in order to increase prices have intensified again. Once again, the reaction from non-OPEC producers surprised the market. In the last monthly forecast, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) raised the forecasted level of oil production in the United States. After breaking the level of 10 million barrels a day, the Administration expects that in November this year - one year earlier than expected - the US production will exceed 11 million barrels a day. The sale accelerated after the publication of the weekly inventory report in the United States, which showed an increase for the second week in a row. This is another proof that the markets are entering a period of seasonal decline in demand from the refinery due to conservation work; this period usually lasts until April. The estimated weekly oil production was increased by 332,000 barrels per day to the level of 10.25 million barrels per day, thus surpassing production in Saudi Arabia for the first time since 1990.

    Despite contributing to the sharp rise in global oil prices since June last year, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members together with Russia are now beginning to pay the price for these activities in the form of a loss of market share to non-OPEC producers. In the short-term perspective, the risk of falling prices as a result of the above-mentioned non-OPEC production is more important.

    Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has dropped towards the level of 58.06 and then tried to bounce to test the golden channel lower line, but so far failed to rally higher. The technical resistance at the level of 61.08 is still too strong for bulls, even despite oversold market conditions. The main support still lies at the level of 58.55 - 59.04.


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  3. #172
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    Global macro overview for 13 February, 2018.

    During Tuesday's trading session, investors' eyes were turned towards the British Pound due to a publication of inflation data in the United Kingdom. This release was particularly awaited by the market participants after the Bank of England signaled a possible faster pace of interest rate hikes. It turned out, the CPI inflation was higher than expected by market consensus. The consumer price and services index stabilized in January at 3.0% y/y against expected drop to 2.9% y/y. In turn, core CPI inflation increased more than anticipated - to 2.7% from 2.5% per annum. On the other hand, PPI inflation decelerated slightly. The above data together with better prospects for the British economy support expectations for the start of a cycle of monetary policy tightening by BoE. Risk aversion and uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations now have a greater impact on the Pound than CPI data.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has tried to rally after the data was released, but dropped eventually to test the recent technical support at the level of 148.90. It is worth to notice, that the market conditions are now oversold and there is a clear bullish divergence forming between the price and the momentum indicator, which might spark a bounce towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 150.44 and above.


  4. #173
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    Global macro overview for 14 February, 2018.

    At the end of 2017, American citizens' debts exceeded the historic amount from the third quarter of 2008 - the New York Federal Reserve informed. However, there is no concern about this state of affairs on the financial markets yet.The total debt of Americans due to mortgage loans, credit cards, student loans or debts for the purchase of a car is 13,150,000,000,000 Dollars. This astronomical amount of USD 13.15 trillion (USD 13.150 billion) was 473 billion USD higher than the previous record from the third quarter of 2008 (12.68 billion USD). However, while in 2009 the household debt in the US was 87% of the gross domestic product, currently the ratio is 67%. From the bottom of the second quarter of 2013, the debts of American households increased by 17.9%. Only in 2017, American debts have grown by 572 billion USD. At the same time, the US savings rate has fallen close to 2.0% - the lowest level in a decade. More than 75% of the debt balance were mortgage loans amounting to a total of 8.88 trillion dollars. That is 139 billion USD more than a quarter earlier. To this must be added 444 billion USD of the balance of loans taken out against property.

    Although Americans' debts have hit the crisis record, their replayability is generally the same or even better than Lehman Brothers's bankruptcy. With the exception of increasingly troublesome student loans (where more than 10% of loans have a delay in repayment exceeding 90 days), the situation looks quite good. However, we should take into consideration the fact that interest rates in the United States are still very low and the unemployment rate has remained at its lowest level in 17 years. When the prosperity is over and the cost of credit increases, America will have another credit hangover.

    Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has tested the technical support at the level of 89.64, dipped a little more, but now is bouncing back towards the level of 90.11. If the bulls will get strong enough to break out above the level of 90.50, the price might return to the main channel and try to test the next technical resistance at the level of 90.98.


  5. #174
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    Global macro overview for 16 February, 2018.

    The agreement between the OPEC countries and Russia regarding the limitation of oil production has been going on for over a year and it can be said that the goals set at the beginning were achieved partially. First of all, the oil market was balanced, which was clearly supported by the global economic recovery. The demand for black gold remains strong, and the latest example is the data from India, where in January imports reached a record level of 4.93 million barrels daily, which means an increase of 13.6% compared to the previous year. As a result, global gas reserves, which dropped by 154 million barrels last year, are only 52 million barrels above the five-year average. This drop is supported by the stable ratio of excess demand growth over the growth of supply, which has been going on since the beginning of last year. As a result, the number of oil tankers off the coast of Singapore and Malaysia fell from 40 in mid-2016 to less than 15 in February this year. In addition, if they were filled to the brim before and they are not now. The second important goal of the cartel was the desire to change the price relationship in the futures market, so that the price of the raw material with immediate delivery was not lower than the price with deferred date of completion. This scheme is called contago and encourages oil storage. Currently, however, the price structure is reversed, what is called backwardation and makes the storage of oil for its later sale lose its meaning. Thus, OPEC may be happy with itself, but the main problem is the rapidly growing production in the US, which has already overtaken the export leader Saudi Arabia, and later this year may overtake Russia and take the place of the largest producer in the world. This means that the barely achieved balance on the market is fragile. In this context, the latest signals from OPEC are not surprised that there will be no sudden termination of the agreement, and work on a long-term form of cooperation with Russia is underway.

    Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the support at the level of 58.06 again and moved higher towards the level of 62.10. The momentum is still strong and points to the north, so there is a possibility of another rally higher if the level of 62.10 is violated. On the other hand, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 61.08.


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  7. #175
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    Global macro overview for 22 February, 2018.

    In the last three months of 2017, the British economy grew at a quarterly rate of 0.4%, which clearly disappointed economists as a rise of 0.5% was expected. The lower reading was significantly influenced by lower individual consumption (0.3%, consensus: 0.4%), whose impact was strongly sought by the increase in the government spending (0.6%, consensus: 0.3%) or returning to favor investments in fixed assets (1.1%, consensus: 0.5%). The trade data also failed to provide support to the British economy. In quarterly terms, the volume of exports fell by 0.2% with an expected increase of 0.5%. Only the Services Index data has beat the expectations of 0.4% as the number released was slightly better at the level of 0.6%.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the data was published. The pound remains relatively insensitive to the above indications. In the first reaction, GBP/USD fell by about 10 pips to the level of 1.3880 so far, but the recent breakout through the technical support at the level of 1.3921 looks irreversible. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.3818 and it might be tested soon, as the momentum is below its fifty level and clearly points to the downside.


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