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Thread: Daily global macro overview with Nigeria-Forex forum.

  1. #161
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    Global macro overview for 28 December, 2017.

    It will take about a week to repair the damaged infrastructure in the Es Sider terminal after the explosion of the oil transporting pipeline in Libya last Tuesday. Oil production in Libya fell by 12.0% below 1 million barrels per day to 950 thousand bpd. Before the gas pipeline explosion, the crude oil production was 1.08 million bpd. Loading of oil in Es Sider dropped by 50.0%, and this month it was expected to load the raw material for 13 tankers, each for 600,000 barrels of oil.

    On the other hand, the US received information that oil stocks fell last week. The American Petroleum Institute reported that inventories decreased by 5.96 million barrels. Today, market participants will receive another inventories data from the US Department of Energy (DoE) at 03:30 pm GMT. Analysts expect a drop in US oil stocks of 3.90 million barrels after another drop last week of 6.48 million barrels. Market participants can expect a slight decline in quotations and then a stable level, because despite the fact that the US oil stocks are declining, the price growth may halt the higher shale oil production in the US .

    Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still hovering around the level of $60.00 in overbought trading conditions. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $59.04 and it looks like it might be tested soon. As long as the golden trend line is not violated, the trend remains bullish.


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  3. #162
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    Global macro overview for 04 January, 2018.

    The macroeconomic background around the US Dollar remains positive, so it's wrong to look for reasons to keep selling the currency. On Wednesday ISM Manufacturing data was released above forecasts and it only confirmed that the recovery at the end of 2017 sustained a solid pace. The dollar did not react much, after all, the improvement of the economic situation is now a sign for the whole global economy. Wall Street, however, has improved its recent all-time high levels, so investors appreciate the economic data at least at some levels. The minutes of the December FOMC meeting also changed very little. Much discussion about inflation, the impact of the tax law and the yield curve, but the overall message was not surprising - the Fed is constructive with regard to the state of the economy and does not give the market grounds to doubt the forecast of three interest rate hikes this year. But as in the case of the ISM, the market participants did not learn anything that they did not hear yet.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market retraced almost 50% of the recent leg down, but the bull camp was top weak to test the golden trend line from below. This bounce higher was expected due to the oversold market conditions at this time frame, so now the next target level is the technical resistance at the level of 113.09. On the other hand, the key technical support is seen at the level of 112.02.


  4. #163
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    Global macro overview for 10 January, 2018.

    The passing night brings two waves of sudden appreciation of the Japanese Yen without a clear justification in the news feed, although the technical levels breaking and the flight of investors who do not know what is happening is doing its job. As yesterday's USD / JPY drop would have been a reaction to reducing the volume of T-bonds from the secondary market bought by the Bank of Japan, today the move has come from nowhere. At the same time, any speculation regarding a faster than anticipated monetary policy tightening in Japan is premature. Inflation is much below the BoJ target (0.6% vs. 2%), and if you look for key elements of the BoJ monetary expansion, then not in the volume of cyclical bond purchase auctions, but in the policy of stabilizing 10Y Treasury yields close to 0%. If BoJ is able to achieve this goal with less expense it will end up positively for all market participants. What's more, in the past, BoJ showed that as soon as yields are to escape over 0.1%, the bank decides to buy unlimited bonds. For now, however, the currency market is following its bizarre path, because inter-market dependencies do not support USD / JPY declines. Yields of 10-year US bonds in the last 24 hours jumped 9 bps to 2.57%; the index of Tokyo Nikkei 225 is at its most since 1991! Such discrepancies in asset relations do not last long, but for the time being, we have to let the market move its own direction.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market dropped below the technical support at the level of 112.02 and now is testing another support at the level of 111.45. The key technical support is still at the level of 110.82. Please notice the bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator.


  5. #164
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    Global macro overview for 18 January, 2018.

    The Bank of Canada hiked the overnight rate from 1.00% to 1.25% yesterday, just as expected by the market consensus. This interest rate hike was previously priced in by market at 90%. In the BoC Rate Statement, the bank stressed that the economic situation justifies further increases, but high private indebtedness and growing concerns about the future of NAFTA agreement are the main factors to slow down the rate of normalization. Therefore, this rate hike was very familiar to last Bank of England interest rate hike, which was a "dovish" and conditional hike.

    There is no question that the Canadian economy, in general, has improved significantly on field of the retail sales, GDP growth, CPI, and employment activity over the last couple of months, nevertheless the BoC had more options than to raise interest rates immediately such as signaling plans to tighten in March – a "hawkish" hold. It will be very interesting to watch the BoC decision next time as there is still a possibility of a cut if the economic conditions worsen.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After an initial spike, the market reversed back to the consolidation zone and it still sits there today. None of the important levels was violated and the momentum has switched to neutral. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2350 and the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2556.


  6. #165
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    Global macro overview for 19 January, 2018.

    The political turmoil in Germany is doing its best. On Sunday there will be a congress of the German SPD party, on which there are big chances to reject the idea of forming the Great Coalition with Angela Merkel's CDU party. In this case, Germany may wait for repeated elections or the CDU will decide on a minority government, which, however, Merkel does not want. For EUR, as for USD, the result of political scuffles can be positive or negative. However, how much political stability in Germany is an important factor building the strength of the EUR? It is certainly losing on importance with market expectations for the hawkish ECB comeback next Thursday, but during the period of deadly anticipation of the statement after the meeting, the SPD's rejection of the coalition may easily turn into a reason to push the Euro off. For now, however, it remains in a waiting mode until Monday.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame from the Elliott Wave point of view. The top of the wave (iii) is already in place at the level of 1.2321 and now the market has entered a corrective cycle wave (iv). The first three waves to the downside are done and the price has hit 38% Fibo (minimal requirements are met), but there is still a chance for a more complex and time-consuming corrective pattern is a form of a triangle. The next support is seen at the level of 1.2166 and the next resistance at the level of 1.2321.


  7. #166
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    Global macro overview for 23 January, 2018.

    New highs, up trend continuation and more capitalization. This is how the situation in financial markets and the global economy looks like today. Great current data, historically high valuations of companies on the stock exchange, extreme optimism of investors and lack of serious threats on the horizon favor the emergence of bolder forecasts. In the January edition of World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised estimates of global GDP growth for 2018-19 by 0.2% up to 3.9% annually. The forecasts for major developed economies, especially for the USA, were revised upwards, where the IMF expects an acceleration of growth due to the recently approved tax cut. "The impact of the tax package on the level of production in the United States and the main US trading partners is responsible for about half of the cumulative revision of global growth forecasts for 2018-19" - noted in the report. The IMF estimates this impact at 1.2% by 2020. At the same time, it assumes a lower growth path for several years after 2022 due to the expected higher fiscal deficit and temporary character of some reform proposals.

    The IMF states that the balance of risks for global short-term growth forecasts is broadly neutral, but points out that negative factors prevail in the medium term. "High valuations of assets and strongly reduced term bonuses increase the probability of a correction in the financial markets, which could limit growth and influence the moods" - emphasized the IMF. A possible catalyst for negative changes in the financial markets may be a faster-than-expected rise in core inflation and interest rates in developed economies.

    Let's now take a look at the SPY (SP500 EFT) technical picture at the H4 time frame. The index has made a new all-time high at the level of 282.61 despite extremely overbought market conditions and growing bearish divergence. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 280.10.


  8. #167
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    Global macro overview for 24 January, 2018.

    Interest in the January meeting of the ECB increased after the minutes of the December meeting surprised the market by stating that the Governing Council may revise its bias regarding the asset purchase program "at the beginning of the year", which is earlier than expected so far. From that moment, the central bank has to fight with speculation, but it is not easy when economic data remain strong and deny the need to maintain ultra-soft policy for a long time. On the other hand, granting the market a risk of firing a shot at the euro, which may weigh heavily on the outlook for inflation and will bury the chances of achieving the 2.0% target. in the medium term. The most recent estimates say that the EUR / USD rally lasting since the last bank meeting in December will translate into lower inflation forecasts for 2018 and 2019 by around 0.2 percentage points. Thus, the ECB will probably look for a way to emphasize the dovish attitude, even if at the same time it wants to leave flexibility for later changes based on economic developments (in order to reconcile the dovish and hawkish members of the ECB Governing Council). This means repeating in the message that the QE program will last at least until September and that interest rates will not change long after the asset purchase is completed. If the ECB is actually considering changes in the forward guidance, the March meeting may also be considered the "beginning of the year", where the Governing Council will additionally have new forecasts available to the economy.

    The European Central Bank will publish its decision and statement on Thursday 24 January at 12:45 pm GMT. The global investors do not expect any changes in the parameters of monetary policy (the reference rate: 0.0%, deposit rate: -0.40%, asset purchase amount: EUR 30 billion / month). At 13:30 pm GMT a press conference of the President of the ECB, M. Draghi, is scheduled.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken below the technical support at the level of 0.8732 and is currently in the demand zone. The next key technical support is seen at the level of 0.8688 and the strong momentum is indicating a possible test of this level soon. Please notice the overbought market conditions.


  9. #168
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    Global macro overview for 31 January, 2018.

    The two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ends on Wednesday, January 31, with the publication of the interest rates decision at 07:00 pm GMT. The market consensus is to maintain the target for the federal reserves rate at 1.25-1.50% (no hike).

    The US economic data since the December meeting was relatively positive, emphasizing maintaining a solid pace of recovery. Despite the fact that the increase in employment in December was below expectations, the still high rate (148k) made it possible to maintain the unemployment rate at a 17-year-old minimum of 4.1%. PCE Core inflation at 1.5% on a yearly basis is still below the Fed's inflation target of 2.0%, but the general trend is upward and long-term inflation expectations have started to rise. The preliminary GDP reading for the fourth quarter on the surface was weaker than expected (2.6% vs. 3.0%), but the key components were good: private consumption increased by 3.8% after 2.2% in the third quarter, and investments increased by 7.9%, versus 2.4% a quarter earlier). Net exports and a rebound of strong inventory growth in the third quarter were responsible for disappointment.

    The development of the situation in the economy does not force significant changes in the communication on this topic (apart from leaving the fragment about the risks related to hurricanes). In the part concerning monetary policy, it is also difficult to expect surprises. In January there is no planned press conference, and this traditionally excludes the decision to change the level of interest rates, especially immediately after the December hike. What's more, the first meeting in 2018 is also the last of Janet Yellen as FOMC Chairperson. Her term of office ends on February 3, and her current board member, Fed Jerome Powell, takes her place. It would be a good idea to leave the new president a choice for monetary policy in the coming months.

    Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market awaits the FOMC decision in a tight range between the level of 88.45( support) and 89.62 (resistance). The momentum indicator is at the neutral level but points to the downside. In a case of a rally higher, the next resistance is seen at the level of 90.11 and 90.98.


  10. #169
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    Global macro overview for 05 February, 2018.

    In the beginning of the week, market attention will be focused on central bank meetings. On Tuesday, the decision on the level of money costs will be taken by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which, according to the market consensus, should maintain the main interest rate at the level of 1.5%. On Wednesday, the decision on interest rates will be taken by Reserve Bank of New Zealand, but you should not expect any surprise here either. On Thursday, we will find out more about the outlook for the British economy, as apart from the Bank of England's decision regarding monetary policy parameters, the bank's quarterly report on inflation will also be published. In connection with the above, the central theme this week will be the monetary policy of central banks, as well as the comments of decision-makers appearing in this area.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken below the technical support at the level of 1.4081 and now is heading towards the nearest support at the level of 1.4029 and 1.3975. The downward momentum is strong as confirmed by the RSI indicator. Stochastic indicator is reversing from the overbought zones as well.


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    Global macro overview for 07 February, 2018.

    There is no sign that the RBNZ, which will publish its monetary policy report today, will need to tighten its monetary policy soon. Prospects for economic growth remain good, but inflation still needs no reaction from the bank.Unemployment has been falling gradually for more than five years, from close to 7.0% in 2012, a sign that the economy may be running at close to full speed, but the recent strengthening of the job market, which has firms reporting more difficulty in finding skilled labour than at any time since 2005, has come with little wage growth or inflation. The CPI index slowed in January to 1.6% which is still below the RBNZ inflationary target. Moreover, economist doubt that inflation would accelerate in the fashion the Reserve Bank expects, even if economic growth did accelerate. The reason might be in a surge in a self-employment and casual employment, together with a technology advance, so no real reason for RBNZ to hike this month.

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision will be published on Wednesday, February 8 at 08:00 pm GMT. The market participants expect the interest rate to stay on the spot at 1.76%. Together with the decision, RBNZ Monetary Statement will be published and Press Conference held later on.

    Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the top at the level of 0.7435 was established, the market fell out of the channel and went down to test the technical support at the level of 0.7275. Then it tried to rally, but the technical resistance at the level of 0.7343 was too strong for the bulls, so the price moved lower again. Currently, the market trades inside of the horizontal zone between the levels of 0.7254 - 0.7343 in oversold market condition awaiting the RBNZ interest rate decision.


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