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Thread: Daily global macro overview with Nigeria-Forex forum.

  1. #231
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    Global macro overview for 29/06/2018.

    The US Dollar has been the best perfomer on Forex in Q2. Indeed, it gained against other major currencies from 2.5% (CAD) up to 7.0% (SEK). EUR/USD has dropped over 5.5% and USD/JPY increased by 4.0%. The last three months will, however, go down in history as a period in which turbulence has returned to emerging markets.

    The leading themes of the quotations include: growing fear of trade wars and higher US debt yields, that are attracting previously pushed out capital as a magnet and increasing interest attractiveness of the Dollar. The hardship over Eurozone economic strength has been painfully verified by a long (and ongoing) series of disappointing readings, the ECB has postponed the first rate hike for at least a quarter, and the tensions on the political scene of Italy, Spain and even Germany have appeared.

    However, in the Dollar valuation, there is a lot of positive information, in Euro - quite the opposite. The Dollar has largely exhausted its appreciation potential resulting from undervaluation and extreme positioning. In the second half, it will not be so easy to extend the rally. The key issue is to determine if and when a market environment will emerge that will facilitate the realization of expectations. For the upcoming sessions, the EUR/USD should consolidate over spring lows around 1.1510. Over time, traders should expect improvement in sentiment towards the Euro and exchange rate hikes towards 1.20, which might be the target at the end of the year. In the short term, more space to recover from the last weakness against the Dollar has a Pound. GBP/USD retraced the typical range after making the double top formation and should enter the phase of recovering from weaknesses. This will be favored by the increase in the probability of the August rate hike and the calm of the political mood in a calmer holiday season.

    In conclusion, considering the combination of structural, monetary, fiscal and macroeconomic factors, the traders should expect to maintain higher yields on US government bonds. The interest rate differentials between the major currencies are favorable for USD, thus they should be maintained.

    Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the daily time frame. The uptrend is developing, but the growing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator is suggesting the correction is coming. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 94.46 and 94.18. In a case of a down move extension, the next technical support is seen at the level of 92.21. Moreover, please notice the possibility of a Double Top technical pattern at the level of 95.53, which supports the short-term bearish scenario.


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  3. #232
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    Global macro overview for 02/07/2018.

    The June result of the German PMI Manufacturing index is the lowest since the end of 2016, according to Markit IHS. The index value of 55.9 points has not changed since the previous month and was in line with economists' expectations, in the first minutes after the data the DAX index grouping the largest companies is growing.

    New orders in the industry show the slowest growth in two years and optimism among German entrepreneurs has fallen to the lowest levels in three years, producers of goods are looking at the upcoming year unconvincingly. The only positive aspect that flows from the Markit report is the pace of creating new jobs that have risen to four-month highs.

    The PMI Manufacturing index is a gauge for the overall performance of the German manufacturing sector. Through asking executives about sales and employment outlook, the survey strives to provide useful information about the business climate that can lead to developments in employment, output, and consumption. The PMI survey results are the result of interviews with business executives. Manufacturing is an important sector in Germany, which is why changes in Manufacturing PMI can provide a good indicator of the overall economic condition in Germany as well as Eurozone.

    Let's now take a look at the German DAX index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market had opened with a gap down on Monday and fell to the level of support at 12,155. Currently, the bulls are trying to fill the gap and rally towards the level of 12,300, just above the old 61% Fibo retracement level was. If the bears will again take control over the market, then the next technical support is seen at the level of 12,000 (round number) and 11,958 ( April support). Please notice the big gap between the levels of 11,958 - 12,120 that might be filled soon as well.


  4. #233
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    Global macro overview for 03/07/2018.

    In June, the UK Construction PMI index rose to 53.1, beating the median forecast of 52.5 and the reading from May (52.5 points). The construction production is at a 7-month high and new orders grew at the fastest pace since May 2017.

    The Construction Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the level of activity among purchasing managers in the construction sector of the economy. Any reading above 50 signals industry expansion; below 50 indicates a contraction. Construction figures are an important indicator of housing demand.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pound enjoys the market sentiment that appeared at the start of trade in Europe. GBP/USD approaches 1.32 slowly, reversing yesterday's drop and in the last minutes, an upside-down reading of the PMI index for the construction sector has become an additional impulse. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3191 - 1.3217 zones and there should be a pretty good reaction from the bear camp. If the bulls will break higher, their next target is seen at the level of 1.3292.


  5. #234
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    Global macro overview for 04/07/2018.

    A large number of investors have started to fear that the weakening of CNY and the collapse of the Shanghai stock market may be associated with a strong outflow of capital. However, the verbal monetary support from the monetary authorities, which supported the second day of the clear strengthening of the yuan and the clearly better-than-expected PMI for China's services, should somewhat allay fears. All comparisons with the situation from 2015, when traders fear the prospects of China and the stability of the local financial system are to a negligible extent justified. First of all, this is due to the fact that those turbulences were the result of errors of regulators, who first allowed for the emergence of a speculative bubble in the stock market and then fought unsuccessfully with the effects of its breakage. Now, there is no such thing, although it should be remembered that the scale of debt is a serious problem in the financial system of the Middle Kingdom. However, this is a long-term problem and a permanent element in the balance of risks, not a new element of the market puzzle that suddenly appears and causes a panic.

    The first signs of calming down the sentiment go hand in hand with slowing USD appreciation. After a multi-week rally ahead of the dollar, the global investors do not see much room for strengthening, a lot of positive information is already discounted by the markets.

    If concerns about the future of China are quickly dispelled, AUD and NZD can count on strong rebound. The medium and long-term perspectives of both currencies are not positive in our opinion (low-interest attractiveness and lack of prospects for a rapid rise in interest rates) and the potential rebound market will be surely used to renew the short exposure.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/CNY technical picture at the daily time frame. The market has made a big pin bar candle around the level of 6.6855 where the 61% Fibo retracement of the last swing down is. It might indicate a temporary corrective cycle in progress, but for now, the price might start to consolidate between the levels of 6.6000 - 6.7180. The market conditions are overbought, but the momentum is way above ifs fifty level, confirming the strength of the up move. The nearest important support is seen at the level of 6.4372.


  6. #235
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    Global macro overview for 05/07/2018.

    Wednesday was treated as a mini weekend with an increased risk of extraordinary events, as a result of which on Tuesday investors focused on closing profitable positions while they still had a chance. As yesterday passed without surprises, today we return to the leitmotif of the last days, what are the trade wars and their impact on the global economy. The eyes of investors are primarily on China, where today the yuan's performance was stable, but the stock market remained in bearish moods. The copper and iron ore also lost strength, which together shows that it is nervous. In this context, the stability of major currencies is impressive, although it may be the silence before the storm. The escalation of the commercial dispute is close because tomorrow the White House is to introduce a life of import duty including Chinese goods worth 34 billion USD. Donald Trump has promised to limit imports for goods worth $ 50 billion, so the risk by the end of the week is what the US intends to do with the remaining $ 16 billion. At the same time, China stipulated that "by no means" would not make the first move, but would not hesitate to respond to the actions of the United States. Personally, I have doubts whether the implementation of the tariffs will bring a market reaction in the style of "buy rumors, sell facts". Taking into account that Trump will not like China's retaliatory actions and will threaten with further tariffs, this may be a contribution to a further wave of risk aversion.

    Let's now take a look at the Gold technical picture in the daily time frame. After the Death Cross around the level of $1,310, the market has dropped towards the technical support at the level of $1,236. Due to the oversold market conditions, the price has bounced towards the level of $1,261 and currently, the bulls are still trying to rally higher, but the momentum remains below its fifty level. If the next wave down will occur, then the traders should closely watch the support at $1,236, because, in a case of a breakout, the next important support is seen at the level of $1,204.


  7. #236
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    Global macro overview for 06/07/2018.

    In recent months, the US economy has emerged as immune to the global downturn and remains relatively strong. This is confirmed by yesterday's increase in the ISM index for services whose values are close to cyclical peaks. This strongly contrasts, for example, with the barometers of the Euroland, which have fallen strongly this year. Only that the strength of the economy will no longer translate into the perception of the Fed's intentions. The FOMC has clearly presented the policy and risk perspectives asymmetric, i.e. better data in the coming weeks will not give rise to more hikes in the upcoming quarters or to raise the target level for interest rates.

    The key, of course, is the wage growth, which remains close to 2.8 percent. Every year. The labor market is ruthlessly tightening, which should put pressure on wages also in the coming months. This is, of course, still positive for the USD through a channel of inflation expectations raising the yield on debt and working towards extending the spread of profitability to the debt of other G-10 and EM economies. Only that the impact of the speeding labor market on the valuation of US bonds will be smaller than before because it will not go hand in hand with building expectations for a more hawkish Fed position. In the USD valuation, there is a lot of positive information and the positioning has normalized (investors abandoned the extreme skepticism towards the dollar prevailing in the first quarter). All this indicates that the potential for further appreciation of the dollar has been largely exhausted. The more so because in the valuation of many currencies, the discount of negative factors is evident. This applies, among others euro and pound - both currencies have space to continue to rebound.

    In the case of data for June, it is expected that monthly wage growth will be maintained at 0.3%, which, year-on-year, should lead to the equalization of this year's maxima of 2.8%. The rate of creation of new jobs is still well above the ceiling allowing stabilization of the unemployment rate, which, therefore, has a chance to decline from 3.8 to 3.7 percent. The change in non-farm employment is estimated at 195,000, ie on a level consistent with the average value for the last year. It is hard to resist the impression that the bar of expectations is highly suspended, which can only aggravate the negative reaction of the dollar in the event of disappointment. However, it is very unlikely that today's readings would be able to sow seeds of uncertainty about the condition of the American economy.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the NFP Payrolls are released. The market is again testing the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.1720 and this retracement level will play a crucial role during today's NFP data release. Any violation of this level will likely open the road towards the next target at the level of 1.1829. In a case of a worse than expected data, the price might fall below the black intraday trend line support around the level of 1.1670 and head towards the next target at 1.1630.


  8. #237
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    Global macro overview for 09/07/2018.

    The most important information of the Friday session was undoubtedly the publication of a report from the American job market by BLS. After the result of 223,000 new posts in the non-farm sector (NFP) from May, in the June report economists expected a slightly worse result at the level of 200,000.

    According to the latest report from the American Labor Office (BLS), the change in employment in the non-agricultural sector (NFP) in June 2018 amounted to +213,000 jobs, which is better than forecast. In addition, the May report from 223,000 was also revised positively up to 244,000.

    It turns out, however, that despite forecasts assuming maintenance of monthly wage growth rate at 0.3% and its appreciation in annual terms to 2.8%, finally wage growth in monthly terms has slipped to + 0.2% and in annual terms, it remained at its current level of 2.7%.

    What is worse, despite the forecasts assuming maintaining the unemployment rate at the lowest level in 18 years, the level of 3.8%, in the end, it was up by 0.2 pp up to 4.0%. It is worth recalling that, despite the fact that the market consensus assumed maintaining the unemployment rate, some economists suggested that it would drop to 3.7%.

    In conclusion, despite the better than expected NFP headline figure, the market participants have focused on poor wages again, which might be the main reason behind the spike down on USD pairs across the board.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe at the first trading session after the NFP Payrolls data were published. The market continues to grow higher above the 61% Fibo and currently, the local high was made at the level of 1.1790. The strong and positive momentum supports the bullish case and it looks like the bulls will test the siwng high at the level of 1.1850 soon. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1740.


  9. #238
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    Global macro overview for 10/07/2018.

    The UK industrial data disappoints

    The data set from Great Britain is slightly unsatisfactory. In May, industrial output unexpectedly fell 0.4% m/m against an expected increase of 0.5%. Production output also fell less, growing by 0.4% (exp. 0.7%). The statistical office also started monthly publications on GDP dynamics - in the three months to May, GDP increased by 0.2%, in line with expectations.

    Industrial output is a measure of the manufacturing output of the energy sector, factories, and mines. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of UK industrial activity. Industry accounts for about a quarter of the overall GDP. Because industrial production accounts for most of the volatility in the GDP, foreknowledge of trends in manufacturing goes a long way in forecasting UK output. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Pound. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation. In times of inflation, the Bank of England may raise interest rates to control growth.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the data were released the market slid from the level of 147.80 to 147.20, but the price is still trading inside of the rising channel. The next technical support is seen at the level of 146.62 and then at 146.02. The momentum remains strong, but there is a visible bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator, which suggest the short-term pullback is still on the table. Please keep an eye on the technical resistance zone between the levels of 148.11 - 147.79 as any breakout higher is bullish.


  10. #239
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    Global macro overview for 11/07/2018.

    It may be a very interesting evening in Canada, where the overnight rate increase by 25 bps to 1.50% it is widely expected, but also almost entirely discounted. In a speech last week, the president of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz sounded optimistic, expressing satisfaction with the general state of the economy, while downplaying one-time "jumps" in monthly data. In the latter, it seemed to refer to the disappointing reading of retail sales in May, while the good condition of the economy was confirmed by the higher than expected GDP reading for April. Moreover, the quarterly central bank survey among enterprises indicated an increase in the general sentiment indicator to the highest level since 2011. The survey also showed an increase in inflation expectations and tensions in the labor market due to a shortage of employees. What can go wrong? Business surveys were conducted before the US announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Hence, the hike may be framed with a cautious message emphasizing fears about the effects of global trade conflicts. With the current investment climate, it is real that the greater risk lies in "selling facts" and realizing profits from the last wave of CAD appreciation.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the important techncial support at the level of 1.3066 and now the bulls have managed to retrace almost 38% of the previous swing down. The key retracement is seen at the level of 1.3263, just above the key technical resistance at the level of 1.23260, so if the bulls want to regain the control over the market, they must break through this zone. Otherwise, the temporary down pull-back will continue towards the level of 1.2834.


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  12. #240
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    Global macro overview for 12/07/2018.

    The USD remains the main beneficiary of trade tensions, which is easy when it has a solid macro back-up. The labor market is growing further, consumption is growing, and in leading indicators, there are no signs of concerns on the part of business and households about the effects of trade wars. Even the Fed officials make constructive comments. Yesterday, Charles Evans, a dove who voted against the hike in December, now sees room for one or two until the end of this year. Moreover, WSJ published an interview with the head of the Fed branch in Cleveland Loretta Mester, who has hawkish views (and the right to vote this year). Mester said that the economy is surely able to sustain two more interest rate hikes this year. In her opinion, if the Fed will postpone increases, it may be late with a reaction to the signs of overheating. According to Mester, the neutral rate is 3.0%. There are no surprises here and the market accepts comments neutrally.

    Today in the calendar data on June inflation, where consensus counts on a moderate increase of 0.2% m/m, which will push core inflation to 2.3% y/y. A stronger reading and response of the debt market may become a good catalyst for the USD rally.

    AUD, NZD, but also SEK and NOK remain the most sensitive to risk aversion and escape to the USD. Considering China's involvement in the conflict and the pressure on the prices of industrial raw materials, AUD has the most difficult situation and one can expect it to go even further in time. An impressive novelty is the USD/JPY rally, especially as it is in conflict with correlations with the stock and debt market. It seems as if the yen ceased to be treated as a "safe haven" and is seen as the currency of the Asian economy, where foreign trade plays a major role. If there is still someone on the market who wants to hedge the risk by buying a yen, it can now be in an uncomfortable position.

    Let's then take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is in a clear uptrend with a local high at the level of 112.62, but the bulls are heading towards the level of 113.37 minimum. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 111.39. The market conditions are starting to become overbought slightly, but the momentum remains positive and strong.


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