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Thread: Daily global macro overview with Nigeria-Forex forum.

  1. #101
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    Global macro overview for 11 August, 2017.

    The UK Industrial Production data beat the expectations. According to the UK government agency, the Industrial Production for the month of June has been released at the level of 0.5% after a revised reading of no change for May and was above consensus expectations of a 0.1% increase for the month. Moreover, on a yearly basis, the Industrial Production increased from -0.2% to 0.3%. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June which was in line with consensus forecast to give a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. The biggest weakness was noted in the transport section and it was at the level of 2.2% m/m. Every 0.4% contraction in production for a quarter will result in 0.3% GDP decrease, but this time the impact on the revised GDP reading will be minimal.

    Other UK data releases were disappointing with a 0.1% decline in construction output compared with an expected increase of 1.2% and the trade deficit was higher than expected as exports fell sharply. This situation might increase concerns surrounding the overall outlook, especially as the industrial sector has been supported by British Pound overall weakness.In the age of the global competitiveness, the UK industrial sector should be experiencing a robust growth if it wants to stay in a top performers league, especially after the Brexit negotiations will end. The British Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated yesterday, that the overall negotiations with the EU, including the process of soft or hard Brexit, will take at least two years, so the UK economy still has the time to improve.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. After the failure at the level of 1.3270, the British Pound is clearly weakening and currently is approaching important technical support at the level of 1.2932. Despite the oversold market conditions, the momentum indicator can not move above its fifty level, which supports the bearish outlook.


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  3. #102
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    Trading plan for 14 August, 2017.

    The Asian stock market starts the week with gains after no news regarding the US-North Korea conflict were published during the weekend. The Hang Seng rises slightly more than +1.0% while the Shanghai Composite added +0.85%. The yen and the franc stand out in the foreign exchange market, both of them posted the highest growth last week. Gold loses 0.3%, platinum falls by 0.75%.

    On Monday 14th of August, the event calendar is light with only the Industrial Production data from the Eurozone on tap. Nevertheless, there were some overnight data that might play a role today. The Retail Sales data from China were at 10.4% which can be considered as a healthy read, and the Industrial Production was at 6.4%. Positive figures came from Japan. Annualized GDP dynamics fell to 4% q/q (2.5% threshold).

    The Eurozone Industrial Production data are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and market participants expect to fall for the first time in four months. The market consensus forecast sees output slipping- 0.5% for the monthly comparison at the end of the second quarter. This would be the first monthly decline since February and the steepest setback this year. The year-on-year trend will suffer as well, but continue to post modest growth and still rising 2.8% on the yearly basis. The recent set of economic data from the Eurozone was very positive and indicated a steady pace of the economic growth. This is why weakness in today's hard data for June should be considered a temporary pause in an otherwise ongoing recovery for the Eurozone economy.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The current corrective cycle from the high at the level of 1.1908 is the biggest and longest one in the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. So far the resistance at the level of 1.1846 - 1.1829 still holds, but better than anticipated data from the Eurozone might challenge the recent top soon. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.1614.


  4. #103
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    Global macro overview for 15 August, 2017.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary released the policy meeting minutes overnight, warning about the overheating house market in Australia. Housing market conditions "warrant careful monitoring" were the exact words used by the policymakers in the statement. Despite the fact that the house prices are slowly stabilizing in Australia's biggest cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Canberra, the prices are still rising apparently. Moreover, the statement said: "The established housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne had remained the strongest in the country, although conditions had eased since late 2016. Housing prices in Perth had declined a little further, while apartment price growth in Brisbane had been weak".

    It is worth to mention, that the RBA decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.5% at the last meeting, where it remained since August 2016. Nevertheless, in contrast to other central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia hasn't given explicit forward guidance regarding the future of the monetary policy. Unlike some other central banks, the RBA openly admits that it does not know what it will do with its policy rate in six, twelve or twenty-four months' time. The question remains whether the hot house market will trigger any change regarding the future interest rate levels. Most global investors are anticipating such a move at the beginning of 2018. In that case, the Australian dollar will continue to appreciate against other currencies across the board.

    Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is slowly moving downward and the price is currently testing the technical support at the level of 0.7838. Any breakout lower will open the road towards the next technical support at the level of 0.7777. Nevertheless, the slight bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator indicates a possible bounce to the technical resistance at the level of 0.7920 before the move down will resume.


  5. #104
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    Global macro overview for 16 August, 2017.

    The US economy is slowly, but surely overcoming the headwinds. The recent data from US manufacturing sector in form of an Empire State Manufacturing Index (a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) revealed, that the index strengthened from 9.8 to 25.2 points. This was substantially above consensus expectations of 10.0 points and the strongest reading since September 2014. The main reason for such a good data was a modest recovery in shipment index ( from 10.5 to 12.5 points), new orders ( from 13.3 to 20.2 points). The inventories were the only index with a negative reading at the level of -3.1 points. Moreover, forward-looking indicators strengthened significantly on the month with the 6-month outlook index at 45.2 from 34.9 the previous month.

    Manufacturing of late has shown some tentative signs of strength, helped by a recovery in the oil sector as prices have stabilized and the recent data should have a significant impact in boosting confidence in US manufacturing sector. Business activity is growing stronger and the employment is increasing at a faster pace. The only doubt is whether companies can push through price increases, but the next few months will bring more data and a more certain outlook will be generated.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price had bounced three times from the level of 1.1686, so any further violation of this level will open the road towards the next technical support at the level of 1.1612. The overall market conditions are neutral, but the diminishing upward momentum indicates, that bears are still in control over this market.


  6. #105
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    Global macro overview for 17 August, 2017.

    A set of quite upbeat data from the UK has been released recently. The UK unemployment declined to 4.4% from 4.5% in June and this was the lowest unemployment rate since 1975. The employment increased by 125,000 in the last 3 months and by 338,000 over the year with the employment rate at a record high of 75.1% from 74.9% in the previous month. The jobless claimant count declined 4,200 in July, which was better than market participants expectations of 7,200 increase. The biggest surprise, however, came from wages as the headline year-on-year growth rate strengthened to 2.1% from an upwardly-revised 1.9% in the previous month.

    The report from the British labour market was a big surprise. Actually, there was nothing to pin down, all the figures were better than expected. In spite of everything, the better data coming from the British economy seems to calm the biggest pessimists announcing stagflation (simultaneous rise in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth). The data will improve the confidence surrounding the UK economic outlook with market sentiment edging back towards the potential for higher rates. Nevertheless, the Bank of England policymakers might not be that optimistic as only a sustained improvement in economic data would change the point of view of the BoE officials and trigger the interest rate hike this year. The main obstacle, the lower than projected inflation readings, is still on the table and it still looks like the BoE will prefer the wait-and-see approach before committing to present any hawkish point of view regarding a possible interest rate hike.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is trading relatively close to the swing high at the level of 0.9268 in overbought conditions. Moreover, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator and the price is trading inside of the Ending Diagonal pattern. All these clues are pointing for a possible test of the level of 0.9088 and lower if the UK data are better than expected. The key techcnail support is still at the level of 0.9006.


  7. #106
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    Global macro overview for 18 August, 2017.

    Increasing risk aversion is again becoming a leading reason behind the current financial markets behavior. The positive result season in the US has encouraged the continuation of the indexes to a historic high, but there are now no new reasons to buy stocks at the current levels. With so many valuations and strong buyouts, the lack of information is no longer good information. The global investors are faced with the possibility of reducing the balance sheet total by the Fed, which over time will include the absorption of gigantic liquidity excess in the banking sector. Moreover, next week the US and South Korean will join for military maneuvers that have been carried out in North Korea in the past, which increases and geopolitical uncertainty. Finally, the rumors that Gary Cohn, the head of economic affairs in Donald Trump's administration, was about to resign. Such a decision would further reduce the probability of tax reform and the implementation of the stimulus package. The rumor was quickly denied, but it was not going to stop the decline in the US stocks yesterday, which also shows the strength of the supply side on Wall Street. This week close in the US markets might be very important for both bulls and bears.

    Let's now take a look at the SPY technical picture (SP500 ETF) at the H1 time frame. The golden trend line dynamic resistance was strong enough to push the prices lower towards the unfilled gap between the levels of 244.65 - 245.54. Currently, there is only one gap left to fill, between the levels of 242.78 - 243.31 and this gap will act as a very important support zone for both bulls and bears.


  8. #107
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    Global macro overview for 23 August, 2017.

    The US political scene keeps influencing the financial markets worldwide. September is the month in which the budget for the next fiscal year should be approved. It is also the period when the issue of US debt limit will have to be resolved. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is treating the government shutdown to guarantee to fund the US-Mexico border wall project. For the time being, these declarations do not have a major, immediate and direct impact on the market, but with a view to addressing the key issues mentioned above, traders shouldn't move past them indifferently. The bigger the crisis is in the Trump administration and the Republican Party's rivalry is stronger, the less the chance of fulfilling the promises and the Dollar is getting weaker. In the current situation, investors have so much doubt in the stimulus of growth by cutting taxes and infrastructure package already, that any positive information in this field will support the US Dollar. For now, the continuation of acute rhetoric will, however, be interpreted as the inability to find consensus on key budget issues and US debt limit and is a major threat to the rejuvenating positive sentiment on Wall Street.

    No opportunity for tax cuts means lower corporate profits. This, in turn, adversely affects the valuation of shares. To a large extent, the American stock market has plummeted recently, and more and more people are starting to talk loudly about the upcoming bigger correction. If we add an uncertain geopolitical situation in form of US-North Korea conflict, the recipe for a larger corrective cycle is ready.

    Let's now take a look at the SPY index technical picture at the H1 time frame. After a lower low at the level of 241.80, the market rebounded from the oversold levels and moved higher towards the golden trend line resistance but did not manage to violate it and currently trades just in the middle of the range. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 245.54 and 246.11.


  9. #108
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    Global macro overview for 24 August, 2017.

    During his yesterday's speech at Lindau in Germany, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi did not provide any new information that would be relevant for the Euro. He stated that QE and the forward guidance were successful and emphasized, that monetary policy is bringing new challenges. More in the context of the future of monetary policy, the Chairman of the Bundesbank J. Weidmann told German newspaper Boersen Zeitung. He said there was agreement that the QE program could not be abruptly closed and that changing its parameters would have negative consequences. This obviously dovish statement indicates that the chances of a change of ECB monetary policy before the end of the year are negligible.

    Today begins the central bankers' symposium in Jackson Hole. Investors still have to wait, as Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi will be speaking tomorrow evening. The Euro bulls dominate the markets on hawkish expectations before the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's Jackson Hole speech. Although Draghi will unlikely let out any new and important details regarding the future of the ECB's bond purchases program, an optimistic view on the Eurozone's economy would enhance the chances of a hawkish policy action in September 7 meeting and keep the bulls in charge of the market.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still trading inside of a narrow range between the levels of 1.1660 - 1.1845 as the market participants expect the Yellen and Draghi Jackson Hole speeches. Larger time frames outlook remains bullish.


  10. #109
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    Global macro overview for 25 August, 2017.

    Other signs of inflationary pressures were revealed in the recent data. Japanese National CPI data were released at the level of 0.4%, unchanged from a month ago, but CPI minus fresh food a key proxy for core inflation increased from 0.4% to 0.5% in the reported month. The reading matched a median estimate of economists and marked the seventh consecutive monthly increase for the core price index. The biggest jump in inflation was noted in Tokyo, where core inflation, a leading measure of nationwide price trends, climbed 0.4%. Core prices in the capital city climbed 0.2% in June.

    Despite the fact that the inflationary pressures in Japan are increasing, the inflation is still well below the Bank of Japan official target of 2.0%. According to the latest BoJ statements, as long as the target is not achieved, the BoJ monetary policy will remain highly accommodative (monetary easing will remain the norm for the foreseeable future). This decision was made even after the good data from the Japanese economy had been delivered throughout the whole 2017 ( better than expected GDP, low unemployment, etc ). Japan's run of six straight quarters of growth marks the longest expansion since 2006.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After rejection at the level of 111.00, the market slid towards the technical support at the level of 108.79 and tested it three times already. Nevertheless, no new lower close was made and so far the market is trading in a narrow range between the levels of 109.84 - 108.59.


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    Global macro overview for 28 August, 2017.

    No real breakthrough in Jackson Hole after two-day symposium ended. The Fed Chairperson Jannet Yellen speech last Friday was focused mainly on defending the regulatory action taken in response to the 2007 financial crisis. She did not address the current economic and monetary policies. She disagreed with the position of President Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans that the regulatory burden is strangling lending and has handicapped the US economy. The Dodd-Frank Act, which was introduced in 2010 by Obama administration, had been repeatedly criticized by Trump during his election campaign. This regulatory action was broadly defended by Yellen, who argued, that many of the changes that the act had initiated had made the financial system safer."The balance of research suggests that the core reforms we have put in place have substantially boosted resilience without unduly limiting credit availability or economic growth," she said during her speech.

    Despite the fact that Jannet Yellen did not comment the current Fed monetary policy, the market participants have received very important news, regarding the future of Yellen as a Fed Chairperson. Her term finishes in February 2018, so the next Fed Chair will be introduced shortly. Because her point of view regarding the banking system is directly opposite to the Trump's point of view, her chances for the next term appointment has shrunk drastically after Jackon Hole speech.

    Some investors feared that Yellen would use the opportunity to tighten up the rhetoric and warn the markets of excessive optimism and a further increase in risk appetite. Because none of this has happened, the market participants have resumed the trade that has been in force for weeks and further sold the US Dollar across the board.

    Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has broken below the technical support at the level of 92.54 and now is heading towards the next important support at the level of 91.93. As long as the golden trend line is violated, the outlook remains bearish.


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