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  1. #101
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    Global macro overview for 11 August, 2017.

    The UK Industrial Production data beat the expectations. According to the UK government agency, the Industrial Production for the month of June has been released at the level of 0.5% after a revised reading of no change for May and was above consensus expectations of a 0.1% increase for the month. Moreover, on a yearly basis, the Industrial Production increased from -0.2% to 0.3%. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June which was in line with consensus forecast to give a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. The biggest weakness was noted in the transport section and it was at the level of 2.2% m/m. Every 0.4% contraction in production for a quarter will result in 0.3% GDP decrease, but this time the impact on the revised GDP reading will be minimal.

    Other UK data releases were disappointing with a 0.1% decline in construction output compared with an expected increase of 1.2% and the trade deficit was higher than expected as exports fell sharply. This situation might increase concerns surrounding the overall outlook, especially as the industrial sector has been supported by British Pound overall weakness.In the age of the global competitiveness, the UK industrial sector should be experiencing a robust growth if it wants to stay in a top performers league, especially after the Brexit negotiations will end. The British Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated yesterday, that the overall negotiations with the EU, including the process of soft or hard Brexit, will take at least two years, so the UK economy still has the time to improve.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. After the failure at the level of 1.3270, the British Pound is clearly weakening and currently is approaching important technical support at the level of 1.2932. Despite the oversold market conditions, the momentum indicator can not move above its fifty level, which supports the bearish outlook.


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  3. #102
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    Trading plan for 14 August, 2017.

    The Asian stock market starts the week with gains after no news regarding the US-North Korea conflict were published during the weekend. The Hang Seng rises slightly more than +1.0% while the Shanghai Composite added +0.85%. The yen and the franc stand out in the foreign exchange market, both of them posted the highest growth last week. Gold loses 0.3%, platinum falls by 0.75%.

    On Monday 14th of August, the event calendar is light with only the Industrial Production data from the Eurozone on tap. Nevertheless, there were some overnight data that might play a role today. The Retail Sales data from China were at 10.4% which can be considered as a healthy read, and the Industrial Production was at 6.4%. Positive figures came from Japan. Annualized GDP dynamics fell to 4% q/q (2.5% threshold).

    The Eurozone Industrial Production data are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and market participants expect to fall for the first time in four months. The market consensus forecast sees output slipping- 0.5% for the monthly comparison at the end of the second quarter. This would be the first monthly decline since February and the steepest setback this year. The year-on-year trend will suffer as well, but continue to post modest growth and still rising 2.8% on the yearly basis. The recent set of economic data from the Eurozone was very positive and indicated a steady pace of the economic growth. This is why weakness in today's hard data for June should be considered a temporary pause in an otherwise ongoing recovery for the Eurozone economy.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The current corrective cycle from the high at the level of 1.1908 is the biggest and longest one in the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. So far the resistance at the level of 1.1846 - 1.1829 still holds, but better than anticipated data from the Eurozone might challenge the recent top soon. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.1614.


  4. #103
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    Global macro overview for 15 August, 2017.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary released the policy meeting minutes overnight, warning about the overheating house market in Australia. Housing market conditions "warrant careful monitoring" were the exact words used by the policymakers in the statement. Despite the fact that the house prices are slowly stabilizing in Australia's biggest cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Canberra, the prices are still rising apparently. Moreover, the statement said: "The established housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne had remained the strongest in the country, although conditions had eased since late 2016. Housing prices in Perth had declined a little further, while apartment price growth in Brisbane had been weak".

    It is worth to mention, that the RBA decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.5% at the last meeting, where it remained since August 2016. Nevertheless, in contrast to other central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia hasn't given explicit forward guidance regarding the future of the monetary policy. Unlike some other central banks, the RBA openly admits that it does not know what it will do with its policy rate in six, twelve or twenty-four months' time. The question remains whether the hot house market will trigger any change regarding the future interest rate levels. Most global investors are anticipating such a move at the beginning of 2018. In that case, the Australian dollar will continue to appreciate against other currencies across the board.

    Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is slowly moving downward and the price is currently testing the technical support at the level of 0.7838. Any breakout lower will open the road towards the next technical support at the level of 0.7777. Nevertheless, the slight bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator indicates a possible bounce to the technical resistance at the level of 0.7920 before the move down will resume.


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    Global macro overview for 16 August, 2017.

    The US economy is slowly, but surely overcoming the headwinds. The recent data from US manufacturing sector in form of an Empire State Manufacturing Index (a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) revealed, that the index strengthened from 9.8 to 25.2 points. This was substantially above consensus expectations of 10.0 points and the strongest reading since September 2014. The main reason for such a good data was a modest recovery in shipment index ( from 10.5 to 12.5 points), new orders ( from 13.3 to 20.2 points). The inventories were the only index with a negative reading at the level of -3.1 points. Moreover, forward-looking indicators strengthened significantly on the month with the 6-month outlook index at 45.2 from 34.9 the previous month.

    Manufacturing of late has shown some tentative signs of strength, helped by a recovery in the oil sector as prices have stabilized and the recent data should have a significant impact in boosting confidence in US manufacturing sector. Business activity is growing stronger and the employment is increasing at a faster pace. The only doubt is whether companies can push through price increases, but the next few months will bring more data and a more certain outlook will be generated.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price had bounced three times from the level of 1.1686, so any further violation of this level will open the road towards the next technical support at the level of 1.1612. The overall market conditions are neutral, but the diminishing upward momentum indicates, that bears are still in control over this market.


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