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Thread: Daily global macro overview with Nigeria-Forex forum.

  1. #131
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    Global macro overview for 29 September, 2017.

    Catalonia's separatist government has called a referendum on leaving Spain for 1 October, which might create an increased volatility in financial markets over the weekend.

    With a population of 7.5 million, its capital is the proud city of Barcelona, Catalonia is one of Spain's wealthiest and most productive regions and has a distinct history dating back almost 1,000 years. In November 2014, after having their autonomy watered down as well as by years of recession and cuts in public spending, Catalans held an unofficial vote on independence. The Spanish leadership has rejected the vote as illegal and the courts have ordered a halt. Nevertheless, after the Separatists won Catalonia's election in 2015 and set to work on holding a binding referendum, defying Spain's constitution, which states that Spain is indivisible. The confusion reigns before Sunday's vote provided that the Spanish government is trying to block the referendum claiming that it is illegal.

    A Catalan referendum is an event risk that many market participants may want to avoid before the weekly closing bell. If the referendum is held as planned, the outcome could trigger some extreme price volatility in the Euro pairs on Monday open. If the majority of Catalan people decide to vote in favour of Catalan independence, the European integrity sentiment could be seriously affected, because some other countries might start to prepare for the same activity. The other important thing is the government's reaction, as violent mass protests, an armed police intervention, and overall political unrest could affect the positive Euro currency sentiment in the aftermath of the Sunday's referendum. On the other hand, a vote against the autonomy should lift the positive sentiment towards European integrity.

    So far the financial markets reaction is limited as Spanish stock, bond and sovereign markets volatility did not increase. The reason might be quite simple: the market participants are not pricing in the risk yet and patiently waiting for the referendum outcome, which, in turn, means the referendum vote in underpriced.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame before the Catalan referendum vote. The price is trading in a narrow range between the levels of 131.70 - 133.24 after a sudden drop from the local high at the level of 134.40. The most important technical support zone is between the levels of 132.01 - 131.39. Any violation of this area would immediately lead to further decrease towards the level of 130.61 and even 129.35.


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  3. #132
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    Global macro overview for 02 October, 2017.

    The global monetary policy changed dynamically in September, which brought the crystallization of the trend, that is beginning to follow more and more leading central banks. Monetary policy-makers are tired of prolonged inflationary pressures, which in normal circumstances would justify departing from ultra-soft policies introduced during 2007 crisis. While economic activity is more than satisfactory and the labor market is healthy, economists still can not see a revival in wage growth and stimulation of inflationary pressures. On the other hand, the long-term maintenance of record low-interest rates has led to a dangerous situation on the credit and real estate market. Now impatient central bankers prefer to risk that inflation will eventually move up in the future, than to protect against the uncertain effects of the overturning households and businesses and bubble in the real estate market. Central banks are moving into action, but not all and not at the same pace. From the point of view of the foreign exchange market, this means changes in the pattern that the currency has stronger support in market interest rates.

    In September, surprising decisions were made by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, which resulted in CAD and GBP rally. The European Central Bank will support EUR when the monetary policy changes in the near term (asset purchase reducing program) and FED keeps hiking the interest rates on a steady pace. Moreover, ECB activity will prompt Norges Bank and Riksbank to normalize the monetary policies, so NOK and SEK should get stronger in the near term. At the opposite extreme are the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, which are not even interested in further weakening the domestic currency.

    In conclusion, September was a surprising month for market participants and there are clear clues, that the monetary stance triggered last month will be continued to the end of the year and might even intensify at the beginning of 2018.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price is still hovering around the 78%Fibo at the level of 112.95, but the upward momentum is decreasing. The bounce from technical support at the level of 112.19 did not result in new local highs, so the odds for a further downside correction are rising. Breakout below the violet trend line will result with a drop towards the next technical support at the level of 111.45.


  4. #133
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    Global macro overview for 03 October, 2017.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.50% as expected. In the Rate Statement, RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated the pattern from a month ago. Minor changes related to the assessment of economic prospects based on improvement in investments were mentioned. As for the Australian Dollar, Lowe reiterated that the appreciation in the mid-year was on the prospects for inflation and growth. What caught the attention was the fragmentation of the macro-prudential oversight of the real estate market in order to prevent the imbalances. In the past, the RBA wanted to curb the demand for mortgage loans without rising interest rates. So now it seems that the RBA is not keen to change its attitude toward interest rates.

    In a situation where central banks have more and more signals of moving away from ultra-loose monetary policy, the RBA position may be a ballast for the AUD. The Australian economic growth is still closely tied to the Chinese economy, which is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. Any sign of problems in China will greatly influence the Australian economy and its currency.

    Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The bear has managed to break out below the technical support at the level of 0.7807, but it looks like the move down is losing the momentum. There is a visible bullish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator, so the market reaction might be a bounce towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 0.7867.


  5. #134
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    Global macro overview for 04 October, 2017.

    Interesting remarks from Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc has hit the newswires. In a prepared speech he said that Canada's economic growth rate is expected to decline over next few quarters, but should still exceed potential output. Productivity has increased significantly since the middle of 2016 and recent data show the rate of entry for new firms appears to have stabilized. The contribution of new firms to increasing economy's productive capacity could give rise to a virtuous circle of growth and increase in productive capacity from new firm creation would allow the Canadian economy to grow faster without creating inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, a sharp CAD depreciation following a drop in Crude Oil prices may have contributed to lower growth of new firms.

    Compared to other economies, Leduc noticed, that Canadian productivity is still "well below" the US as significant challenges remain. In this situation, the best contribution BoC can make is to "promote economic stability" by keeping inflation at 2.0% to avoid higher inflationary pressures and overheating the economy.

    In conclusion, pretty much dovish tone of the Leduc remarks will definitely curb the recent intentions of interest rate hike supporters in Bank of Canada

    Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price tests the nearest technical support at the level of 1.2454 and the last candlestick hammer formation might suggest the demand side is fighting to defend this level of support. Nevertheless, the market conditions are still overbought and the upward momentum seems to be decreasing. A breakout below the technical support at the level of 1.2416 is needed to accelerate the sell-off towards 1.2338.


  6. #135
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    Global macro overview for 05 October, 2017.

    The Retail Sales data from Australia has surprised market participants. They expected a 0.3% increase on a monthly basis after a -0.2% drop last month, but the number delivered was at the level of -0.6%. The Retail Sales data are a good gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month and are a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

    The disappointing decline in sales in Australia has hit hard AUD and shows that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not get arguments to think of a rate hike anytime soon. The market has so far been more optimistic, so the re-evaluation will pull AUD downward.

    In a situation where central banks have more and more signals of moving away from ultra-loose monetary policy, the RBA stance may be a ballast for the AUD. The Australian economic growth is still closely tied to the Chinese economy, which is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. Any sign of problems in China will greatly influence the Australian economy and its currency.

    Let's now take a look at AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 tiem frame. The price has tested the Rising Wedge upper line from below and currently, it bounced off it towards the technical resistance at the level of 0.7875 again. So far the momentum is not strong enough to sustain the bounce, but as long as the level of 0.7800 is not violated, the short-term outlook remains bullish.


  7. #136
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    Global macro overview for 06 October, 2017.

    The Halifax House Price Index data from the UK were better than expected. Market participants expected a drop from 1.5% a month ago to 0.0% in the reported month, but the reading was at the level of 0.8%. Moreover, on a quarterly basis, the prices increased from 2.6% to 4.0% as well. This means the average UK house price hit 225,109 pounds in September - its highest on record. Nevertheless, the survey cautioned that while house price growth was stronger in September than in the previous months, growth was still weaker than the 6.5% year-on-year change it peaked at in December.

    UK house prices continue to be supported by an ongoing shortage of properties for sale and solid growth in full-time employment. Even the recent speculation on the possibility of interest rate hike by the Bank of England did not damp the demand for houses and economists still expect the transaction volumes to hold the current pace even after a rate hike. The only problem for the housing market is increasing pressure on spending power and continuing affordability concerns.

    The Halifax House Price Index is the UK's longest running monthly house price series with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983. It is a resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has dropped below 61%Fibo retracement of the previous swing up and is currently trading just above the technical support at the level of 1.3057. The market conditions are oversold, but the momentum indicator still points to the downside. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2996 and the nearest resistance is seen at the level of 1.3111


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    Global macro overview for 10 October, 2017.

    The British Prime Minister Theresa May has outlined the contingency plans for leaving the EU without a deal. This scenario is known in financial media as "hard-Brexit", but this is the first time UK PM delivered a clear scenario regarding this situation. May said in the speech in British Parliment yesterday: "While I believe it is profoundly in all our interests for negotiations to succeed, it is also our responsibility as a government to prepare for every eventuality", which means the UK government was prepared to walk away from Brexit talks anytime without a deal. According to the document presented by UK PM, the legislation will create a new "standalone" system for the UK and ensure value-added tax and excise laws continue to function if the country crashes out of the bloc without a deal.

    May intervention came at a sensitive time for the Brexit negotiations: this is the fifth round of talks and the deadline for the talks is just in 18 months. Boris Johnson, the Secretary of Foreign Affairs, welcomed the announcement and urged lawmakers to support her strategy as he said: "She (Theresa May) has reaffirmed the destination of a self-governing, free-trading, buccaneering and Global Britain taking back control over our laws, money, and borders."

    The latest round of Brexit negotiations will end Thursday and are the last before EU leaders meet for a summit next week and will decide how talks should proceed. Before this will happen the British Pound might be supported across the board, especially against the two major currencies: USD and EUR.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the technical support at the level of 1.3030 and now is testing the dashed black trend line from below around the level of 1.3181. Nevertheless, the key level to the upside is the resistance zone between the levels of 1.3220 - 1.3293, so as long as the price will stay under this level, the outlook remains sideways to bearish.


  9. #138
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    Global macro overview for 13 October, 2017.

    Jean Claude Juncker, the President of European Commission, says the Brexit process will take longer than the UK expected. After another week of negotiations, the orginal Brexit deadline of April 2019 is still out of reach as both parties are still unable to find "a real compromise as far as the remaining financial commitments of the UK are concerned" - Juncker said in a speech at the University of Luxembourg. Moreover, he added: "The British are discovering, as we are, day after day new problems. That's the reason why this process will take longer than initially thought."

    The UK chief of negotiations Michael Barnier, which finally proposed the possibility of applying a two-year transitional period, was not happy about the state of the negotiations deadlock as well. He said he would not recommend that Brexit talks move on to the second phase as the current state of affairs is not in the UK favour.

    In conclusion, no great step forward after another week of EU-UK negotiations, suppose more progress could be made in time for the next European Council meeting before Christmas.

    Let's now take a look at GBP/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. At the beginning, the price dropped towards the dashed trend line support to test the level of 1.3111 and then bounced back after the Barnier comments. Currently, the market has broken out above the technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.3269 - 1.3293 and it is heading towards the level of 1.3342 in overbought market conditions.


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    Global macro analysis for 19 October, 2017.

    Australia's September labor report was another upside surprise, with 19.8k jobs growth and a further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5% from 5.6% in August (consensus: 15k and 5.6%). Part-time jobs rose by 13.7k, almost same rise as in August, while there was a sharp slowdown in the full-time jobs to 6.1k from 39.5k. The participation rate was steady at 65.2%. Steady part-time jobs growth and participation rate indicate that even new entrants to the labor force are finding it easy to obtain work. However, strong jobs growth needs to translate into private consumption, which hasn't been the case so far. A dismal retail sales growth in August reduced the likelihood of an early RBA rate hike and this point of view was reiterate in the recent RBA Meeting Minutes.

    According to the Minutes, the RBA members noted that the Australian economy had grown by 0.8% in the June quarter, in line with the Bank's forecast. Moves towards higher interest rates in other economies were a welcome development but did not have mechanical implications for the setting of policy in Australia, where the timing of any changes in interest rates would be dependent on developments in domestic economic conditions.

    Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market bounced from the black trendline support around the level of 0.7808, but no new high was made so far. The move up was capped at the level of 0.7875 and now the price is moving sideways. The upward momentum is not increasing too much which might indicate a possible move down to test the level of 0.7808 again.


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