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Thread: Daily global macro overview with Nigeria-Forex forum.

  1. #241
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    Global macro overview for 02/08/2018.

    Before the today's Bank of England interest rate decision the market is counting on the so-called dove raise, i.e. the decision to raise, wrapped in a careful and not very optimistic comment. However, with the uncertainty associated with the Brexit negotiations and after the last series of weaker data, the Bank of England will have to justify the increase, which poses a risk of hawkish receipt. Lack of pound strength to rebound suggests that demand is waiting for the green light that BoE can give.

    The money market has discounted today's hike to over 90%, seeing less 10% chances for the next move before the end of the year and one full move by 25 bp by the end of 2019. With such a valuation, the decision on the hike will not be an element conquering the GBP volatility. Support for the 9-0 application is the most likely scenario for building the consistency of the message. If BoE wants to raise interest rates, August is the last date this year. If you prefer the meetings where the Inflation Report is published, the next opportunity will be in November, just a few days after deciding whether the UK and the EU have set Brexit conditions. Suspending such a critical decision for a period of potential political turmoil would be ill-advised.

    The Bank of England has no interest in deepening the weakness of the GBP, hence there is no justification in the overly dovish tone of the monetary statement. Too weak GBP will disturb inflation trends, which will only make it difficult for BoE to assess indicators. The present valuation of the pound even the neutral overtone of the message can be positively received, thus becoming a catalyst for closing short positions in GBP. Relief in the absence of information noise related to

    Brexit (holiday break of the British parliament) may be a good excuse to draw GBP higher, but it seems to us that first the central bank is needed to be ignited.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the BoE decision is made. The market calmly awaits the interest rate decision as it is trading in the middle of the range at the level of 1.3102 at the time of writing.

    The internal trend line is giving the support for the price, but in a case of a further weakness, the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.3072 and 1.3049. The most important technical support is still at the level of 1.2955. On the other hand, the technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.3191 - 1.3217 is preventing the price from falling higher, so in the bulls want to regain the control over the market, they must break out impulsively above this zone.


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  3. #242
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    Global macro overview for 03/08/2018.

    A weekly report by the US Department of Labor on the number of applications for unemployment benefits was published yesterday afternoon.

    As reported by the Department of Labor, the number of pre-declared unemployed in the week ending on July 28 this year (Unemployment Claims) was 218,000, which means an increase of 1,000 compared to the previous week. The surveyed economists, however, expected an increase of up to 220,000.

    On the other hand, the four-week average dropped, amounting to 214,500, which means a decrease of 3500 compared to the moving average of the previous week.

    A positive overtone of this publication was also supported by the fact that the number of continuation applications for unemployment benefits (Continuing Claims) in the week ending on July 28, fell to 1,724,000 from 1,747 000 a week earlier. The forecasts assumed, however, that the number of continuing jobless claims will increase to 1,750,000, so this data was also better than expected.

    That was the first part of the US job market report, the second part will be published today in form of NFP-Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.

    Let's now take a look at USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame after the first part of the US job data was posted. The market has failed to break through the technical resistance at the level of 112.17 and the price made a Doji like candlestick formation. Since then, the market dropped towards the technical support at the level of 111.20 and bounced a little, but no new high was made. The intraday local high is seen at the level of 111.77 and this will be the point of reference for the NFP data today. The market conditions remain neutral as the traders await the NFP data to be released.


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    Global macro overview for 07/08/2018.

    The season of quarterly results in the US is almost behind us, but it was full of unexpected events that surprised investors. The results of companies from the technology sector, including those from the so-called FANG basket, which includes Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google were widely commented on in the financial press.

    The biggest surprise was the publication of weaker than expected growth in the number of Facebook users. The price of the company's shares dropped almost 25%. Slower growth was also a factor that contributed to the decline in Netflix and Twitter shares, which in turn amounted to 12% d 25 percent The unexpected slowdown of these companies may cause a revision of forecasts regarding the long-term dynamics of the companies 'expansion by analysts, which may translate into further deterioration of investors' sentiment. On the other hand, such a significant and sudden fall in quotations may be perceived as a too pessimistic reaction to worse results, which may be a very good opportunity to buy over-valued securities of leaders of the technology sector. However, it should be remembered that after weaker forecasts announced by the mentioned companies, sudden improvement of sentiment in the short term may not take place.

    Let's now take a look at the NASDAQ technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the publication of the worse than expected results, the index plummets from the all-time high at 7935 to 7500, but currently, the bulls are still raging on and pushing the market higher: the gap down between the levels of 7735 - 7935 was almost filled now and the blue trend line was not violated significantly. This is a strong bullish market in a strong uptrend, so new high should be expected soon.


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