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Thread: Daily global macro overview with Nigeria-Forex forum.

  1. #141
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    Global macro overview for 30 October, 2017.

    The reading from a month ago was at the level of 105.8 and this month reading was released at the level of 109.1.This is the second upward movement in succession. The upward tendency is mainly driven by the banking and manufacturing indicators. However, the prospects for exports and the accommodation and food service activities are also somewhat better than before. The indicators for domestic consumption are stagnating, and the indicators for the further development of the construction sector have declined somewhat. Regarding tot he manufacturing, the indicators for machinery, metal, electrical equipment, paper and other manufacturing industries are pointing upwards.

    The Swiss economy is performing well and Autumn is welcoming it with a tailwind. The SNB is far from lifting borrowing rates and the current level of negative interest rates at -0.75% might stay here a little longer despite the recent European Central Bank announcement of a reduction of the monthly asset purchase of 30bn per month (which is clearly tightening, while at the same time sounding dovish).

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame. The further upside EUR/CHF is quite limited in the short-term as market participants are progressively adopting a more bearish bias on the pair. In addition, the Catalan crisis reminded everybody that the European Union is not as united as Brussels says. On the other hand, there is little incentive for investors to bet on a sharp reversal in EUR/CHF as monetary policy divergence is clearly in favor of Euro. The recent bounce from the level of 1.1557 might be short-lived if the Catalan tensions will escalate.


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  3. #142
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    Post Global macro overview for 07 November, 2017.

    The Australian Dollar found temporary support in the RBA announcement that no major changes in inflation and growth forecasts were made. Especially the latter was reassuring in the face of recent disappointing CPI data. But the bank maintained optimism about growth with signs of slowing consumption (a drop in retail sales of 0.6% since August) and low wage pressure. In the statement, RBA Governor Phillip Lowe said: "Conditions in the global economy are continuing to improve. Labour markets have tightened and further above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. The Bank's forecasts for growth in the Australian economy are largely unchanged. The central forecast is for GDP growth to pick up and to average around 3.0% over the next few years. Business conditions are positive and capacity utilization has increased".

    In conclusion, there was nothing new in the RBA statemnet as many of the remarks were reiterated. Nevertheless, despite a lack of a hike this time, tougher lending conditions have arguably had a similar effect as a lift in the cash rate, except the effect is more focused on slowing investment activity across the housing sector. Moreover, house price data for October showed Sydney home values continued to a slide in October, with the nation's biggest housing market recording its first quarterly fall in prices since May 2016.

    Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the news was released. The market tried to rally higher after the data, but it was capped at the level of 0.7700. Only a good attitude of copper and iron ore (under the influence of oil rally) inhibits the decline of AUD, but the macro background supports the view of continuation of the downtrend. The next immediate support is seen at the level of 0.7625.


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    Global macro overview for 09 November, 2017.

    There are just three rounds of negotiations before December's EU summit, where EU leaders will have to decide (again) if sufficient progress has been made. Except for the recent "dovish hike" by Bank of England and self-evident Brexit uncertainty. the negotiations might have an impact on the British Pound exchange rate as well as the recent internal development on the UK political scene. Scandals are threatening PM May's thin majority and are likely to leave the Tory party (and May's leadership) weakened. Moreover, the UK Government is under the pressure to publish 58 "secret" studies examining the economic impact of Brexit.Those studies are the assessments into how the EU withdrawal will impact on sectors ranging from tourism to pharmaceuticals, which make up nearly 88% of the UK economy. Failure to publish the raft of studies has prompted a major political row with more than 170 cross-party MPs urging their release, while campaigners also threatened the Government with legal action if the assessments were not made public.

    Finally, October's CPI will be released next Tuesday, and that may also drive some volatility in the GBP - considering the highly contingent nature of the BoE's current tightening cycle.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market failed to rally above the level of 151.59, reversed and currently is trading close to the technical support at the level of 148.61. A breakout below this level will likely lead to the test of 38% Fibo at the level of 147.66 again and if the sell-off accelerate, then the lows of 146.89 might be tested as well. Weak momentum development supports this bias.


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    Global macro overview for 13 November, 2017.

    This week's event is Tuesday's presentation of the four major global central banks (the Fed, the ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan) at the European Central Bank's "Challenges in Policy Effectiveness, Responsibility, and Reputation Communication" conference in Frankfurt, Germany. Discussion can be an opportunity (planned?) for coordinated action by the central bankers on the financial markets. The majority of economists thinks it can take the form of a confirmation of the direction of monetary policy in the most important economic regions of the world (tightening), ensuring win against deflation and signals of inflation return and, most importantly, warnings of markets that current prices are too low, cost of money and future interest rates. This prediction brings with it the potential for a stronger deterioration of moods and a drop in risk appetite on the financial markets in the next weeks.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The Euro might be strongly impacted by the conference conclusions, but so far the bull camp looks too weak to continue the bonce after the failure at the trend line resistance around the level of 1.1676. Moreover, the trending conditions look overbought and the upwards momentum is diminishing. If the conference outlook will be worse than expected, the price might continue the downside move towards the technical support at the level of 1.1554 and below.


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    Global macro overview for 14 November, 2017.

    The ECB hosted the conference "Challenges in Policy Effectiveness, Responsibility, and Reputation Communication" starts today in Frankfurt, so the market participants are wondering whether the outcome from this event will be similar to the earlier one from Sintra, Italy from July this year. It is difficult to anticipate the outcome, but it looks like the central bankers are now in a slightly different situation than before. Firstly, most central banks have outlined their path in recent times. This is a different situation since this July, when for many institutions their future strategy was unclear or we were at the threshold of a change of attitude. The ECB has now drawn up its plans for the QE program by September 2018. The decision was received as dovish, but the euro-related decline was not severe. Thus, Draghi does not have to strive to stabilize the course and, on the other hand, cares not to lead to more appreciation. As a consequence, the neutral tone should dominate. In the case of the Bank of Japan, the situation is even simpler, as here the message indicates the status quo for many months yet. Janet Yellen is bound by the fact that he leaves office in February 2018, so it would be inappropriate to comment on next year's interest rate path. And if it opted for the December hike, its words will not change much for the market valuation of 90%. Carney, chairman of the Bank of England, has the biggest leeway, who announced at the beginning of the month a rate hike but packaged in an exceptionally high tone of dovishness. BoE would like to stop the pound sterling and fuel inflation, but promising a continuation of the hike will threaten the reputation of the economy, as the economy does not allow it.

    In conclusion, none of the chairpersons should go out of the way of communication, and on the other hand, events like today's Frankfurt are the main source of surprises.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has managed to break out of above the black trend line, but so far no new high was made, so the consolidation zone between the levels of 112.94 - 114.72.was maintained. The move up might be a simple bounce from the oversold conditions as the momentum indicator is still hovering around its fifty level. The bias remains neutral-to-bullish as long as any important levels are not violated.


  7. #146
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    Global macro overview for 15 November, 2017.

    Charles Evans, a dovish Chicago Fed official, said in his interview with CNBC television that the yield curve of US debt remains relatively smooth. In his view, FOMC members should pay attention to the dual purpose set in advance, albeit further highlighting the key drivers of consumer price dynamics. Evans allowed inflation to hit 2.0% and an increase in the deviation of the unemployment rate from the NAIRU level by descending below 4.0%. In his opinion, the observed trends in potential output should draw the attention of other members who have time to revise their adopted monetary policy framework.

    Looking through the short-term economic factors, it is pretty difficult to find a composite measure of US prices that has on average seen 2.0% annual inflation since the 2007-2008 crisis. In fact, former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has recently noted that the level of core PCE the central bank's other preferred inflation measure remains 4.5% lower than where it would have been had the Fed been successful in meeting its 2.0% target. It's, therefore, no surprise to see current FOMC members like Williams and Evans talking about potential price-level targeting in the future.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The dollar remains relatively insensitive to his statement as the vertical rally at this pair continues higher. Currently, the price is trading just below the technical resistance at the level of 1.1862 and momentum indicator points to the north despite the overbought trading conditions. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1805.


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    Global macro overview for 16 November, 2017.

    Mark Carney, Governor of Bank of England, reiterated the need for a transitional process in leaving the European Union. Applying the above solution will minimize the occurrence of shocks not only in the island economy but also in the euro area. Carney declares that the BoE can use a broad range of instruments if necessary and admits that BoE will support economy whatever the Brexit deal outcome.

    There are just three rounds of negotiations before December's EU summit, where EU leaders will have to decide (again) if sufficient progress has been made. Except for the recent "dovish hike" by Bank of England and self-evident Brexit uncertainty. the negotiations might have an impact on the British Pound exchange rate as well as the recent internal development on the UK political scene. Moreover, recent scandals are threatening PM May's thin majority and are likely to leave the Tory party (and May's leadership) weakened.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains locked inside of a horizontal zone between the levels of 148.01 - 150.32. The momentum in either direction is low as the indicator oscillates around its fifty level. The market participants are waiting for the breakout in this pair.


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  10. #148
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    Global macro overview for 17 November, 2017.

    The US Industrial Production jumped a solid 0.9% in October as factory activity recovered from the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma (consensus: 0.5%). New light for the expected growth rate for the fourth quarter threw a massive jump in factory production (1.3% m/m, consensus: 0.6%) which was recorded at its seven-year high. Mining activity slipped 1.3% in October as Hurricane Nate caused a brief decline in oil and gas drilling. Production at utilities rose 2.0%.

    Maintaining these trends will lead to an increase of the US economy by 3.5% annualized GDP growth. Over the past 12 months, manufacturers have added 156,000 jobs. That's the strongest annual growth since the middle of 2015.

    Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market violated the golden trend line and it is currently trading below it at the level of 93.67. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 94.07 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 93.39. It is worth to notice, that the sequence of the higher lowe had been terminated as the low at the level of 93.39 is lower than the previous low at 93.50.


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