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Thread: Daily global macro overview with Nigeria-Forex forum.

  1. #211
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    Global macro overview for 31/05/2018.

    The Bank of Canada kept interest rates at the current level (1.25%), but the prospects for future tightening were outlined in a more pronounced language. The Bank of Canada removed "cautious" from the monetary policy statement, suggesting a slightly less data-dependent approach to policy normalization. It means the July interest rate hike might be almost certain and it was somewhat confirmed in this passage from the BoC Monetary Policy Statement: "This should lead the market to price in a July hike with more conviction." Another very interesting quote from the statement: "Furthermore, clarification of the reasoning behind the change will likely come from BOC officials ahead of the July meeting, which could provide further hawkish surprises" might be seen as one more confirmation of a very possible interest rate hike in June.

    Considering slightly worse data and considerable uncertainty regarding the future of the NAFTA agreement, this should be interpreted in the categories of a big surprise.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. In the initial reaction, the price of USD/CAD drops from 1.3045 to 1.2944 and this move is being continued further. Currently, the price has broken below all of the intraday supports and it might be heading towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2742. Any violation of the level of 1.2730 would indicate the bears have now a full control over the market and the key technical support at the level of 1.2526 might be challenged soon.


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  3. #212
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    Global macro overview for 01/06/2018.

    HICP inflation in Eurozone accelerated from 1.2% to 1.9% on a yearly basis, strongly defeating the market consensus of 1.6%. What's more, core inflation jumped from 0.7 to 1.1% y/y. Such a scenario hung in the air after yesterday's data from Germany and earlier readings, among others from France, where the annual growth rate of prices is the highest since 2012. In the result, the euro has been gaining again since yesterday, however, mainly due to the calm of sentiment on the Italian Treasury bonds market.

    Less than two weeks before the planned decision on the future of the bond buying-in program (QE), the European Central Bank (ECB) faces a real challenge. On the one hand, the political crisis in Italy has raised the yields on bonds of weaker countries and calls into question the integrity of the region, which would indicate the need to maintain - at least in the short term - market support with ultra-smooth monetary policy (QE in Q4). On the other hand, inflation in the largest Eurozone economy has risen to the highest level in 6 years. According to preliminary estimates, the CPI in May amounted to 2.2%. The last result was recorded last in February and earlier in July 2013, but in both cases, it was the peak of dynamics for the next few quarters. Currently, it is unlikely that the price growth will stop at this level, taking into account the behavior of oil prices in recent months and their strong impact on the prices of consumer goods and services in general, especially in the situation when further, long-term records of low unemployment are achieved on the labor market (5.2% in May - the lowest since unification). The discrepancy within the common currency area makes monetary policy difficult, so Mario Draghi and the company will again have to face the task of proper calibration of its parameters and tools. The currently most likely scenario is still dovish, so the QE will be extended for at least another three months. However, it is not certain whether this will calm the situation in the markets and the euro-related pairs.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture at the daily time frame. The fall from the swing top at the level of 137.40 has almost hit the 50% Fibo and stopped at the level of 124.57. Since then the market is trying to bounce higher and possibly test the technical resistance at the level of 129.11. Moreover, it looks like the market is currently moving inside of the parallel channel, so any breakout in either direction will be an additional important clue. The short-term bounce in EUR/JPY is being supported by the oversold market conditions, so the bias remains bullish.


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    Global macro overview for 04/06/2018.

    The American economy has created 223,000 new vacancies in May and this is definitely more than the median of forecasts, which was at the level of 190,000. A month ago, the change in employment amounted to 162,000 new jobs, so the data not only beat the expectations, but beat the previous month reading as well. Moreover, the data for April and March were reviewed in total by 15,000 up. The unemployment rate has dropped further, amounting to 3.8% and contrary to the consensus, did not remain at 3.9% and now is on the lowest levels in history. The key variable for the dollar prospects is recently the wage pressure. The payroll growth rate was 0.3% m/m and 2.7%y/y, so this part of the job report did not disappoint as well.

    Another pleasant surprise form the US was the publication of ISM index data for the manufacturing sector: readings exceeded expectations of 58.7 (forecast: 58.2) and the most of the sub-components were moving further into expansion territory as well. In the wake of other indicators of the economic climate, the index indicates the good condition of the US economy.

    To sum up: every indicator illustrating the condition of the labor market in the US was better than expected, clearing the way for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve at the June meeting despite renewed concerns about the European debt crisis and global trade relations.

    Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has almost hit the larger time frame technical resistance zone between the levels of 95.15 - 95.55. Nevertheless, the bulls failed here and broke out of the channel, which was briefly tested from below after a temporary support has been established at the level of 93.71. The market is currently in the middle of the intraday range, but the conditions are oversold, so another possible test of the level of 94.60 might come soon. Otherwise, if the support at the level of 93.71 is violated, then the next technical support is seen at the levels of 93.42, 93.29 and 93.11.


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    Global macro overview for 05/06/2018.

    The financial media reported that today is the start of a four-day visit of the British negotiating team in Brussels, where the topics are "future relations, Ireland, divorce cases". There is a field in each topic for the disappointing results and signs of the government's defeat, Prime Minister Theresa May. Speculations are also fueled by recent reports according to which the May government plans to postpone the publication of the next edition of the so-called White Paper, which was supposed to include plans for future relations with the EU. The document is to be released only in July, after the next EU summit on June 28-29. The change of the date is part of the voices of conflict and lack of consensus on key issues in the government itself. Secretary of Brexit Dawid Davis, one of the most ardent supporters of the prime minister, allegedly stated that the postponement is "disappointing". Previously, it was thought that publication of the document before the summit would give time for discussion and consultation of what the government wants to move to Brussels. Perhaps the reason for postponing the publication is important (some things are better negotiated without public intervention), but for now, the whole case is negative for the pound sterling.

    But there is some good news from the UK economy today. The UK PMI Services data was released at the level of 54.0, which was better than 52.8 points a month ago and better than the expected reading of 52.9 points. The Composite PMI was also released better than expected at the level of 54.5 points versus the forecast of 53.4 and 53.2 prior.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. The current GBP position is problematic and strongly shaky. Without the help of good data (as today in the case of PMI), the nervousness around Brexit can take the lead and negatively affect the exchange rate. In the meantime, GBP/USD is closed in the range between 1.33-1.34. Breaking out will shift attention to 1.3470 - 1.3790 (high from May 22) or 1.3250 (low from June 1).


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    Global macro overview for 06/06/2018.

    Today's data is expected to show Canada's trade deficit at CAD 3.4 billion, while in the US it is to be USD 49 billion. In addition, the Ivey PMI for Canada will be published at 04:00 pm GMT. A slight decrease of this index is expected below 70 points after a good print of 71.4 last month. The Building Permits data are expected to decrease -1.0% this month after 3.1% increase in April.

    Moreover, this weekend, the G7 meeting will take place, during which issues related to customs tariffs and negotiations in relation to the NAFTA agreement will be discussed. Canada refused to switch to negotiating a bilateral agreement with the US yesterday. Trump's chief economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, admitted yesterday that the White House chief is increasingly willing to talk 1 to 1 with Canada on the subject of the NAFTA contract, rather than in the formula three (plus Mexico). In addition, Mnuchin asked Trump to cancel tariffs on aluminium and steel in relation to Canada.

    Trump guesses that there is no chance of accepting a new NAFTA treaty this year. The negotiations with Mexico are difficult, and at the beginning of July there are key elections to the parliament and the presidential election, which makes time for ratification of this the agreement very short, so he begins to put in bilateral agreements. In the context of the November partial elections to US Congress, the White House and Republicans are hungry for some successes, because the risk of losing the majority of votes is high.

    In conclusion, this could be an element of NAFTA negotiations, but it is also a might signal that the issue of possible exemptions from customs duties for other countries begins to return. In that case, the USD might get weaken across the boards and the CAD might likely to move up, especially of the move will be supported by solid macroeconomic data.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the scheduled data are released. The market had made a fake breakout above the technical resistnace at the level of 1.3045 and since then the price is dropping. Currently, the USD/CAD is testing the local support at the level of 1.2905 and if the data will be solid, then the break out lower is imminent. In that case the target is seen at the level of 1.2834 - 1.2819 zone. The weak momentum indicator pointing to the downside supports the bearish outlook.


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    Global macro overview for 07/06/2018.

    The Chinese department of trade confirmed that it is in talks with the US regarding the purchase of agricultural goods and energy. It was acknowledged that "specific" progress was made in the negotiations, details require "catching up" and the initiative is now on the US side. Mass media, on the other hand, speculates that Trump may adopt a "confrontational" tone after the last meeting of the G-7 finance ministers, the United States has been criticized by 6 other states for customs practices.

    The dollar continues to sell against the basket of currencies. The issue of the global investor positioning for information from the FED meeting next week (June 12-13) is not yet taken up by the markets, although it seems that it is a good time, and the dollar has undergone a healthy correction in recent days. One can get the impression that the G-7 Summit in Canada is starting to become a problem, with the issue of US trade policy becoming the main topic. It is speculated that Trump may adopt a confrontational tone, which, of course, would not have been well received. Moreover, yesterday the European Commission announced that higher tariffs on selected American products could be introduced from July 1, which is a form of retaliation for not placing the EU on the list of countries excluded from higher duties on steel and aluminum. In conclusion, the G-7 summit may result in the escalation of mutual tensions, but it does not have to. This way or another it is an event worth to keep an eye on as it will have an impact on the financial markets.

    The European session in the foreign exchange market is intensifying the pressure of USD sales. EUR/USD is the main driver of changes and pushes 1.1830, but also GBP / USD broke by 1.3470. Despite increases in European exchanges and growing yields on US debt (10Y 2.983%), USD / JPY is not able to stay above 110. The weakness of USD is less visible in relation to the currencies: CAD, NZD, AUD. Overall, therefore, everything seems to be a separate correction of the strength of the USD, rather than the impact of fluctuations in risk appetite or the impact of correlation with the debt market.

    Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the daily time frame. Historically, the dollar did not perform well in June. Even terribly to be specific. I the previous decade, the dollar index lost only harder in July and April. On average, it fell by 0.6% in June, moreover, the American currency lost in eight out of ten recent cases.

    Currently, at the intraday hourly time frame, the market is still heading downward after the technical supports at the levels of 93.71 and 93.42 were violated. The next support is seen at the level of 93.11 and 92.85. Please notice the oversold market conditions and growing bullish divergence are indicating a short-term pull-back possibility, but the overall bias remains bearish.


  8. #217
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    Global macro overview for 08/06/2018.

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) raised the main interest rate by as much as 125 basis points, from 16.50%. up to 17.75% This is the first decision of TCMB after the reform of the interest rate system announced in May. Prior to yesterday's TCMB management meeting, analysts were divided. 9 out of 17 analysts surveyed did not expect interest rate hikes. The rest counted on a rise of 50-100 basis points.

    In addition, TCMB has threatened that it is "ready to further tighten" its monetary policy if necessary. In the language of central bankers, this means readiness to make further interest rate increases. In this way, Turkey defends itself against the currency crisis and the outflow of foreign capital. Since the beginning of the year, investors have lost confidence in Turkey, where under the rule of Erdogan, the central bank lost its independence in conducting monetary policy. TCMB delayed interest rate hikes, despite the fact that inflation stopped on the leash and exceeded 10% on a yearly basis. Only the threat of currency meltdown forced the Turkish authorities to react decisively. On May 23, at an extraordinary meeting, the Turkish central bank decided to "emergency" interest rate increase by as much as 300 bp. This, however, did not help and the lyre continued to weaken. It was only after the reassuring statements of President Erdogan and the "unveiling" of interest rates by TCMB that the Turkish currency began to stabilize.

    The Turkish economy is struggling with fluctuating inflation - in May the prices of consumer goods grew at a rate of 12.15%. annually. The country also has problems with an excessive foreign debt of the private sector and a rapidly growing current account deficit. The cure for these ills is usually a tightening of monetary policy. It's just that the Turkish authorities have been delaying the administration of this drug for so long that they eventually had to use a horse-shaped dose. Raising loan costs from 12.75% up to 17.75% in just over a month, it can drive the country into a recession and in the result, the Turkish Lira will depreciate even more across the board.

    Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture at the H4 time frame after the interest rate had been hiked. The market reacted violently by dropping to the level of 4.44 before any corrective bounce has happened. The price is still trading below the mid-term trend line resistance and if the bulls will not manage to break through this trend line, the continuation of sell-off is imminent. If the level of 4.44 is broken, then the next technical support is seen at the level of 4.37. The momentum indicator is still hovering around its fifty level, so currency there is not much pressure on the market to go up or down, but it might change very quickly.


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    Global macro overview for 11/06/2018.

    Punctually at 08:30 am GMT the first, important data from Europe appeared this week. The British Industrial Production report and its trade balance are astonishingly surprising.

    The latest data from the ONS clearly indicate the large divergence of forecasts by market analysts with real production values in British factories. April data surprise with a decline in the growth rate of 1.4%, wherein March it recorded a cosmetic change of -0.1%. The dynamics of industrial production are also deteriorating - the index in April is down 0.8% on a monthly basis and a deterioration to 1.8% from 2.7% on yearly basis.

    Office for National Statistics also reports a noticeably worse balance of international trade recorded in April by the British economy. The UK deficit is growing to GBP 14.04 billion after a loss of only GBP 12 billion in international trade in March. The UK deficit is also growing in settlements with countries outside the European Union - the value of the index amounted in April to GBP 5.37 billion against earlier GBP 3.79 billion.

    Let's take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The first market reaction is in line with what we could expect from the disappointing values of the latest reports. the GBP/USD pair drops below 1.3400, creating new daily lows at the level of 1.3360. This level is very close to the technical support at 1.3353 and might be tested today as the market has fallen out of the golden channel and it looks like the lower prices are possible. The untested technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3399 and only a sustained breakout above this level would change the short-term bias to bullish.


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    Global macro overview for 12/06/2018.

    For the second month in a row, data from the British job market are coming out as expected. Although the wage growth rate dropped to 2.8% year-on-year basis, which is slightly below the previous reading and median forecasts of 2.9% ), it is still a solid result close to several-year records dynamics. Moreover, the Claimant Count Change data (data on those individuals who are out of work and who are claiming some sort of unemployment benefit) dropped more than expected as well (-7.7k vs. 11.0k expected, 28k prior). The market could be afraid of weaker data after yesterday's industry data. Maybe other sectors of the economy are doing so slowly, but the labor market with unemployment at 4.2% it is not the worry of the Bank of England.

    The market participants remain focused on today's Brexit votes and tomorrow's reading of inflation. If these figures fall out decently, the August hike will remain in the game (currently its chance is estimated at 54%). This move of BoE would likely result in a broad appreciation of the Pound across the board.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. After the data release, the pair remains above the level of 1.3399 which is the major intraday technical support for the bulls. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3422 and then 1.3451. On the other hand, if the bulls will lose control over the market, then the intraday decline might be quite a several as the next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.3354 - 1.3340 zone.


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  12. #220
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    Global macro overview for 13/06/2018.

    The UK Consumer Price Index data in May was as dynamic as in the previous month, which is 0.4% or 2.4% on a yearly basis. The same situation applies to the base indicator, which maintained the value of 2.1% y/y. Both publications were exactly in line with market expectations.

    The secondary inflation indicators of RPI and PPI are usually treated as secondary as they reflect trends in prices in retail trade and producer prices. The PPI Input data (a monthly survey that measures a change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operating costs of running the business) were released at the level of 2.8%, sharply higher than market expectations of 1.7% and better than the last month figure of 0.6%. On the yearly basis, the PPI Input prices rose from 5.6% to 9.2% already. The PPI Output data (a monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as "Factory Gate Price" because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory) were released at the same level as a month ago, that is 0.4%, a tad higher than the anticipated figure of 0.3%. On the yearly basis, the PPI Output prices rose from 2.6% to 2.9%.

    Today's readings do not bring much new to expectations in relation to the probability of interest rate hikes in August. It is worth noting, however, that yesterday, consistent with consensus, information from the labor market helped the pound, today readings with similar characteristics were unable to do so. Until the August meeting, one set of monthly data has actually become one and the increase is estimated at 51%.

    Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the reading, the pair noted a temporary deepening of the morning slide towards the 61% Fibo at 1.3306, but it was quickly erased and the rate returns to 1.3340. There is a technical resistance at this level, so the bulls might be very active here if they want to keep the bounce valid. In a case of a successful breakout, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3369.


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