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Thread: Bitcoin currency discussion

  1. #61
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    Bitcoin analysis for 07 December, 2017.

    Indonesian Central Bank revealed that it is considering introducing new regulations that would prohibit Bitcoin transactions from 2018. Chief of Transformation Onny Vidjanarkko said yesterday that the bank wants to introduce a ban because of concerns about the potential use of Bitcoin in financing terrorism, money laundering and trade drugs.

    The Central Bank, which has the power to decide on monetary policy, is currently conducting research to determine whether Bitcoin will be regulated in accordance with the applicable provisions on electronic money or in separate frameworks for cryptocurrencies. According to the Jakarta Post report, Vidjanarko stated: "Currently, there is no single regulation applicable to all those who carry out transactions using Bitcoin." The official also appealed to companies accepting Bitcoin payments to stop this practice. He justified this by saying that the Bank of Indonesia will not be liable for losses incurred as a result of such transactions.

    If Indonesia actually banned Bitcoin as a payment method, it would join other countries that oppose cryptocurrencies, such as China. Russia's Minister of Finance also has a similar position to Indonesia, which in September declared that it expects a law on cryptocurrencies, in which a ban on payments with the use of Bitcoin will be introduced.

    Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture. Weekly, daily and H4 charts have been changed due to update in a main Elliot Wave scenario. The current Elliott Wave development is very bullish as the market participants are in wave 3 progression towards the first target around the level of $25k. On the lower time frame charts, the local support is at the levels of $14,071 and $13,031.All of the weekly pivot resistances has been surpassed already and the price continues a parabolic move upwards.


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    Bitcoin analysis for 08 December, 2017.

    The British State Treasury is planning to introduce regulations on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The agency is increasingly concerned about the possibility of using digital currencies in illegal activities, such as money laundering and tax evasion, due to their increasing popularity.

    According to the planned legislation, which is to cover the entire European Union, cryptocurrency traders will be forced to disclose their identity and report any suspicious activities. Such a move by the UK government may cause confusion among industry players, as most of the stock exchanges in the country are already in line with existing customer-awareness regulations (KML) and money laundering laws (AML).

    The proposed regulation can be implemented by the British Government immediately due to the rapidly growing digital currency market in the country. The constant increase in their prices on the market, in particular Bitcoin, which attracted many people, may encourage further investment. The constant lack of applicable regulations regulating the trade and use of cryptocurrencies may cause the degree of risk to increase.

    According to the spokesman of the British Ministry of the Treasury, a new regulation on cryptocurrencies may be implemented by the end of 2018. However, the date of introduction of the regulation may be changed, and the details of the proposed regulations are not yet specified. It is also expected that in the near future more regulations related to digital currencies will be introduced in various EU countries.

    Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has made a new all-time high at the level of $16,628 and now the internal corrective cycle is in progress. The local support at the level of $14,066 holds the line very well so far. From the Elliott Wave Theory point of view, there is still one more wave to the upside missing - wave (v). No indication of an uptrend change so far.


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    Bitcoin analysis for 12 December, 2017.

    There are many stories about lost and long-lost Bitcoins that are worth a fortune today. The Bulgarian government may just be holding bitcoins seized a few months earlier, worth as much as about 18% of the country's debt. It is about Bitcoins confiscated in May this year by a criminal group operating in the Balkans. Criminals dealt with the installation of Trojans on government computer services.The tactics of criminals consisted in recruiting corrupt customs officials in Greece, Serbia, Macedonia, Romania and Bulgaria in order to infect customs information systems. After installing the virus, criminals were able to manage cargo and cleans information. In total, 23 people were detained, 5 of them were Bulgarian customs officers. The police intercepted communication devices, computers, tablets and bank documents. On one of the computers, there were ... 213,519 Bitcoins. Today, when the exchange rate is around $ 15,000, the value of requisitioned Bitcoins is well over $3 billion. The whole situation resembles that of Silk Road, where the services have seized 144,000BTC. Bitcoins have been sold on several auctions.

    Whether the Bulgarian government will decide to sell Bitcoins is not known. At the moment, there are no plans for a seized cryptocurrency yet. Any possible sale will not be easy even for legal reasons.

    Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. A new all-time high has been made at the level of $17,216 but there is still a potential for another high in wave (3) as the current internal wave progression looks incomplete. The nearest support is seen at the level of $15,950. The trend is still up and there are no signs of a trend reversal.


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    Bitcoin analysis for 13 December, 2017.

    Reuters informs that the French government has issued an official statement regarding trading in unlisted securities using Blockchain technology. According to this article, the government has adopted new rules that will enable banks and fintech companies to create Blockchain platforms for unlisted securities. The change will allow trading in assets without intermediaries and theoretically in real time. The country's finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, said the new rules would be a boon for Paris as a financial center. Then he added:"The application of this new technology will enable fintech companies and other financial entities to develop new ways of trading in securities that are faster, cheaper, more transparent and safer." This move is part of a national policy to promote Paris as the center of financial innovation.

    Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. Another marginal higher high was made at the level of $17,390 as expected, so it was labeled as a temporary top for the wave (3).Nevertheless, the overall structure is still unfinished, as there is still corrective wave (4) and impulsive wave (5) missing. The technical support at the level of $15,952 is important from the intraday perspective, but the key mid-term support remains at the level of $12,627. Please notice the clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator, which supports a temporary pull-back scenario in wave (4) to come soon.


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    Bitcoin analysis for 14 December, 2017.

    Over the past month, Bitcoin's price has seen phenomenal increases, which was crowned by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), which began trading Bitcoin futures on December 10th. At the same time, the price of gold fell. However, according to Jeffrey Currie, Head of Research for Goldman Sachs, the huge increase in Bitcoin prices did not have a major impact on the demand for gold. His comments in a recent Financial Times interview run counter to the analysis carried out last week by other financial experts.

    In an interview, Currie added that these two assets have different investor pools. He also stated that Bitcoin's lack of regulation makes it difficult for traditional investors to enter the market. He claimed that Bitcoin and gold had a different characteristic, and their recent price movements result from the growing demand for assets. In addition, Currie added:"In our opinion, Bitcoin attracts more speculators than gold." An additional claim by Currie is that there is no clear evidence of mass deviation from gold. In confirmation of his words, he drew attention to the fact that the current portfolio of ETF funds is at the highest level for over four years. Currie also stated that while the lack of liquidity and the high volatility of Bitcoin may be beneficial to traders, the same features deter investors who prefer the benefits of gold diversification and security.

    In addition to Currie, general manager of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, also recently commented on Bitcoin. At the beginning of November, he announced that although his bank still does not have Bitcoin-related products, he is still very interested in this leading cryptocurrency.

    Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. After establishing the local top at the level of $17,390, the market entered a corrective cycle and broke below the local support at the level of $15,952. The bulls have managed to close the H4 candle above the mentioned level, but the damage was done as the local low was now set at the level of $15,450. The next target for correction is the support at the level of $14,066.


  7. #66
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    Bitcoin analysis for 15 December, 2017.

    In a film released on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the activities of traditional banks would eventually become obsolete and could be replaced by Bitcoin. He based his claims on the reliability of Blockchain technology and on the constant, notable increase of Bitcoin. In the film, Netanyahu said with conviction that the banks will eventually become obsolete and will be replaced, although when and by what, it still turns out:"Is the purpose of the banks ultimately disappearing? Yes. The answer is yes. Does it have to happen tomorrow? Do we have to do it with Bitcoin? This is an open question."

    The head of the Israeli state also talked about the role of banks, explaining that they were created and still exist to provide credibility and security for the transaction. Banks, not to mention governments, still control how they spend money and continue to use this control at the expense of the parties to the transaction. Blockchain, the basic cryptocurrency technology, enables people to make transactions without intermediaries. At the same time, this decentralized technology gives the same as centralized institutions - reliability and security."The truth behind what I just said is what drives Bitcoin" said Netanyahu, but at the same time, he expressed doubts about Bitcoin's ability to grow further at such an amazing pace.

    Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. After a bounce from the local support at the level of $15,952, the price of Bitcoin tested the recent high at the level of $17,390. Currently, the price stays around this high, but the upwards momentum is diminishing and there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator. In a case of a further downside breakout, the nearest support is seen at the level of $14,066.


  8. #67
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    Bitcoin analysis for 18 December, 2017.

    The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), claims that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies do not pose a threat to existing financial systems around the world. In its 152-page report, FSOC has declared that virtual currencies are used only by a small number of consumers, and Blockchain technology offers potential in a variety of industrial applications. They said in the report: "Virtual currencies are used by a small number of consumers. We give slightly more loans of trust for much wider applications of the so-called technology of a dispersed book, which is the basis for innovation. It is worth noting that this wave is also a regulatory challenge because data storage is decentralized."

    The opinion on digital currencies is somewhat surprising due to the negative attitude of several personalities from the financial industry. An example is the recent claim of the president of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, about which I have written many times. The report also cites various monetary, geopolitical and cybernetic risks that are confronted with the global financial system. Bitcoin, however, has not been mentioned as a threat.

    The virtual currency market has seen significant growth throughout 2017. However, despite phenomenal statistics, the total market value is still well below $ 1 trillion and is probably too small to be a systemic threat to the global financial sector. At the same time, the potential that can be released by cryptocurrencies is extreme.

    Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has made a new high at the level of $19,661, which can be labeled as the top for the wave (5). The local support at the level of $17,894 has been tested and together with a weekly pivot at the level of $18.062 will now act as a strong support zone for the price. Please notice a strong bearish divergence between the price and momentum indicator, which clearly favors the downside correction scenario.


  9. #68
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    Bitcoin analysis for 19 December, 2017.

    Immediately after the start of the Bitcoin futures trading, by the CME Group, which will be closed in January, Bitcoin's price jumped to $ 20,800, after which, at the time of publication, it fell back to $ 18,800. However, contracts that expire in February, March, and June are still valued at $ 20,000. Considering the current market price of $ 18,500, Wall Street believes that the price is overstated. These conclusions are drawn despite the fact that the fall of 4% in the world of cryptocurrencies is relatively small.

    The media also became interested in the opening of new CME Group products. The BBC has reported this fact, stating that the opening of this market is conducive to the widespread adoption of Bitcoin. The BBC considered it necessary to combine the above event with the statement of the chairman of UBS, Axel Weber, who expressed the opinion that Bitcoins are not money.

    There are many theories about what will happen after the opening of the CME market. Although there are legitimate arguments for the possibility of investors breaking, new ones should remember that the trend is their friend. Recently, even JPMorgan Chase president Jamie Dimon admitted that before his fall, Bitcoin can be priced at even $100k at some point in time.

    Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has made a new high at the level of $19,661, which can be labeled as the top for the wave (5). The local support at the level of $17,894 has been tested and together with a weekly pivot at the level of $18.062 will now act as a strong support zone for the price. Please notice a strong bearish divergence between the price and momentum indicator, which clearly favors the downside correction scenario.


  10. #69
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    Bitcoin analysis for 20 December, 2017.

    Despite the fact that Bitcoin begins to hover above $18,000, financial institutions and regulators are still skeptical about the rapid growth in its value. The British head of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), Andrew Bailey argues that Bitcoin is a speculative bubble, and new investors will lose the money invested in this cryptocurrency. The British regulator has expressed concerns about the way of valuing Bitcoin. Considering that the cryptocurrency recorded over 1000% increase in value over 12 months, he predicted that investors would lose all their money:"If you look at what happened this year, you will be careful. We do not know much about what sets the price of Bitcoin. This is a strange commodity, because the supply is maintained all the time. If you want to invest in Bitcoin, be prepared to lose your money - this is my serious warning." Bailey acknowledged that Bitcoin is classified as a commodity, given that its quantity is limited to 21 million coins.

    The head of the FCA repeated what the deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Sir John Cunliffe, said in November, warned investors to train before investing in cryptocurrencies. In November, the analyst compared Bitcoin's rise to dot.com bubble from the 90s, emphasizing supply/demand as a driver of Bitcoin's value. According to this report, the supply of virtual currency may be the cause of its loss in the future.

    Let's take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market broke through the local support at the level of $17,984 (now resistance) and dropped lower towards the next local support at the level of $15,470. This pull-back is a part of the corrective wave 4, which might get more complex and time-consuming pattern. The key level to the downside is still at $12,686.


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  12. #70
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    Bitcoin analysis for 21 December, 2017.

    The launch of the Bitcoin futures deal has focused the attention of major financial institutions on cryptocurrencies. While the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CMG) have been recognized as pioneers in the Bitcoin futures market, discussions on cryptocurrency are underway around the world. Last Friday, Reuters informed that EU countries agreed to introduce stricter rules on the use of cryptocurrencies. Bearing in mind the fight against money laundering and tax evasion, these rules require greater transparency on the part of exchange operators. European Commissioner for Justice, Consumers and Gender Equality, Vera Jourova said: "Today's agreement will bring greater transparency, which will improve the prevention of money laundering and prevent the financing of terrorists."

    In a recent interview for Reuters, an intelligence officer at MI5, Annie Machon, said that the European Union's decision to tighten the rules on cryptocurrencies exchanges is taken mainly to protect the interests of large banks. Analyzing the situation, Machon said it was a reflex reaction to the clash of new and old solutions. She further stated: "Any violation of our privacy rights on the Internet is always under the pretext of trying to stop money laundering or stop terrorism, pedophiles or anything else. I think most of the Bitcoin community probably use it in a lawful way, and governments just have a reason to break their right to privacy." Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have a bad reputation for associating them with dark internet markets. But as Machon reminds us, the hands of banks are not clean either: "Yes, the criminals will use them, but criminals also use banks. Many banks have been caught laundering on a massive scale and have received huge fines for laundering of black and gray money, especially from drug trafficking. Maybe let us suggest to the EU that it should also close our banks."

    The discussion is being observed by whole cryptocurrency society and enthusiasts as one of the most important discussion ever emerged in this field.

    Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The local support at the level of $15,470 had been tested and the price reversed higher towards the level of $17,390. The key level to the upside is still the technical resistance at the level of $17,894. The corrective wave 4 might still get more complex and time-consuming if the wave progression will evolve into a triangle pattern.


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