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Thread: Methodology for analyzing the current market situation on the basis of CME reports

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    Methodology for analyzing the current market situation on the basis of CME reports




    They clamped it in the range of 1250-1300 pretty hard, so it will continue to swing for a long time ... For now it would be necessary to go down first to test the market's desire to move upwards in general!" If the correction to 1260-1258 passes without an energetic pairing at the bottom, so the market is set to shift into some more promising assets ... The key will be test 1295-1300. If they break through above, then 1450 will not be the limit of desires ... But for the time being something is stirring up, as if not hijacked as a result below 1230 in a couple of months! [/ QUOTE] like this, just one si with the trend 1266, but on the other 1262 and 1259, and that's all in the structure and with the passage of 1266, many will begin to cover the bays and shorten and the range of 1262-59 will give a lot of joy.Who are the megalots who will still lose tomorrow not the day after tomorrow, but who MM observes in the BU will.

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    Happy New Year to all of you comrades! Well, about the last financial cut of the outgoing year - a sketch. The end of the year, and it's time to rip off the European bank annual balances. And moreover, most of all it concerned the dollar loans, moreover, against the background of the increased state regulation of the rate. Clearly the smell of a deficit of dollar liquidity. Actually, the premiums on swaps for dollar loans began to rise in November this year, but then the problem was brought to a close by the sales by the world financial institutions of the state Treasury. At the end of this year, the problem has risen again in full growth. And then the Central Bank interfered in the matter.



    The Fed fired on the 12/12/2017 at the ECB - 11,907 billion dollars, the largest swap for the ECB since December 2012. The Japanese central bank got much less - 101 million. As the ECB placed the sale of the dollar in small portions on a thin holiday market, one can see from the first minute of the opening of the exchange in Sydney on December 27, 2017 and on the evening of yesterday. The result of this procedure is the 92.00 dollar index and a bum of hopes for those who were expecting the New Year's rally of the dollar ... But this is the trivia of life. How did the ECB sell the dollar in small portions in a thin holiday market, the opening minutes of the exchange in Sydney on 27.12.2017 and on the evening of yesterday. There are still no sales, at the tender ECB lends, from a week to a month, at a monthly rate of USD-LIBOR (in a moment 1.3 ++) + its commission of 0.5% (500 BP). So 1, 89% and will be obtained though for a month, but at the level of 9/11 monthly Libor for $. In 2011/2013, there was no demand for bucks, more than 10 million in one hand could not be solved. Has now appeared. When they return on Thursdays, next. it seems the 18th, since the morning embargo on the payment of all $, first the return of the ECB (through the Bundesbank), and then everything else. I while in doubts, that it presses on a course, at all euro of a krupnjaka among themselves and amers cross curency swaps, with a face value on 100/150 Mln. for the transaction, this is unlikely to fall into the statute, as these are bilateral treaties and a report only before the national regulator (for us, BUBA is the Bundesbank); the truth is here, too, the swap is an exchange, not a sale, when it ends, terminated, you can take a new one (propellit), and not panic buy / sell the underlying asset (either or $); I'm afraid in both cases there is no speculative component, except for the positions authorized by dealers on speculation, which are interrupted by limits for the loess. Basically for trading (swaps), it's hard to believe that the regulator, being concerned about the lack of dollar liquidity in the eurosystem, is flooding the market with swaps (due to cbash swaps) due to overclocking or hedging of speculative poses by players. Evra by the way in the moment a little bit, I can and 1,1860 will give for refueling. But they say this is almost the standard situation for 2011/2013. when hedgers have long poses greater than 100K)) #Euro drops below $ 1.20 as Hegde funds go all-in. Long euro positions are historically high at> 100k contracts. When we've seen this level of positioning in the past, such as 2013 and 2011, the euro has fallen [/ koi peremyty limit on the loss. Basically for trading (swaps), it's hard to believe that the regulator, being concerned about the lack of dollar liquidity in the eurosystem, is flooding the market with swaps (due to cbash swaps) due to overclocking or hedging of speculative poses by players. Evra by the way in the moment a little bit, I can and 1,1860 will give for refueling. But they say this is almost the standard situation for 2011/2013. when hedgers have long poses greater than 100K)) #Euro drops below $ 1.20 as Hegde funds go all-in. Long euro positions are historically high at> 100k contracts. When we've seen this level of positioning in the past, such as 2013 and 2011, the euro has fallen koi peremyty limit on the loss. Basically for trading (swaps), it's hard to believe that the regulator, being concerned about the lack of dollar liquidity in the eurosystem, is flooding the market with swaps (due to cbash swaps) due to overclocking or hedging of speculative poses by players. Evra by the way in the moment a little bit, I can and 1,1860 will give for refueling. But they say this is almost the standard situation for 2011/2013. when hedgers have long poses greater than 100K)) #Euro drops below $ 1.20 as Hegde funds go all-in. Long euro positions are historically high at> 100k contracts. When we've seen this level of positioning in the past, such as 2013 and 2011, the euro has fallen that the regulator, being concerned about the lack of dollar liquidity in the eurosystem, is flooding the market with swap $ (for cbash swaps) because of the dispersal or hedging of speculative poses by the players. Evra by the way in the moment a little bit, I can and 1,1860 will give for refueling. But they say this is almost the standard situation for 2011/2013. when hedgers have long poses greater than 100K)) #Euro drops below $ 1.20 as Hegde funds go all-in. Long euro positions are historically high at> 100k contracts. When we've seen this level of positioning in the past, such as 2013 and 2011, the euro has fallen that the regulator, being concerned about the lack of dollar liquidity in the eurosystem, is flooding the market with swap $ (for cbash swaps) because of the dispersal or hedging of speculative poses by the players. Evra by the way in the moment a little bit, I can and 1,1860 will give for refueling. But they say this is almost the standard situation for 2011/2013. when hedgers have long poses greater than 100K))#Euro drops below $ 1.20 as Hegde funds go all-in. Long euro positions are historically high at> 100k contracts. When we've seen this level of positioning in the past, such as 2013 and 2011, the euro has fallen But they say this is almost the standard situation for 2011/2013. when hedgers have long poses greater than 100K)) #Euro drops below $ 1.20 as Hegde funds go all-in. Long euro positions are historically high at> 100k contracts. When we've seen this level of positioning in the past, such as 2013 and 2011, the euro has fallen .But they say this is almost the standard situation for 2011/2013. when hedgers have long poses greater than 100K) #Euro drops below $ 1.20 as Hegde funds go all-in. Long euro positions are historically high at> 100k contracts. When we've seen this level of positioning in the past, such as 2013 and 2011, the euro has fallen


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    For Euro short opinion!

    The euro is likely to make all the same jump! Or at least it will pierce the resistance on Jan. 4, 1.2086 ...

    But looking at the footsteps of the optional analysis above area 1.2150 - 1.2250 which is now considered as an area of ​​medium-term resistance, the price most likely will not immediately pass ... And from here, Euro (at least) ... Area 1.2150 - 1.2250 (by options), this is the level of hedgers, and the price to here may not reach. Thus, in the course of growth, it is worth looking closely and looking for points for sales already on their vehicles.

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    [= soleil; 17916219] Is there a graph, Money supply and near price? My forecast ruble strengthened. But it is possible that the money will be spilled ... [/ QUOTE] The graph is naturally available, only the question is - what do you want to see there? !!!
    All this belongs to the category of flood, philosophizing and conspiracy theories. Here the ratio of the money supply to the monetary base is more important, which in countries with an absolutely healthy economy should be 5-6. At the moment in Russia this ratio is five! In the US, this ratio in the year 2007 (before the crisis) was 15. This was a liquidity crisis, in which there was a high risk that the chain of defaults would develop ... In our country in the 90s, banks on the contrary did not give loans - it was unprofitable and dangerous. The central bank actively squeezed the money supply, fighting inflation. The ratio at this was 1.2! And it was called the "default crisis". Demura is ruining the ruble, Khazin is beating down the dollar, and they are alive all the more alive! All the bottom is looking for ... Like a beard top ... One diver is already planted - who's next?

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