photo
Earn up to
$50000
for inviting friends
to get StartUp Bonus
from InstaForex
No investments required!
Start trading without
any investments and risks
WITH NEW STARTUP
BONUS 1000$
GET BONUS
55%
from InstaForex
on every deposit
  1. InstaForex affiliate program - the highest rewards on Forex! Earn by attracting clients! We pay up to 67% from company's profit!
+ Reply to Thread
Page 4 of 6 FirstFirst ... 2 3 4 5 6 LastLast
Results 31 to 40 of 54

Thread: Methodology for analyzing the current market situation on the basis of CME reports

  1. #31
    Forex in the blood
    ----
     
    bukky12 is an unknown quantity at this point bukky12's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    251
    Accumulated bonus
    745.88 USD
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 7 Posts
    The aussie at 0.7?
    We need to start with the pricing of options. Practice is the best master. The further the option from the current price, the cheaper it is and the less its delta is. What does the delta tell us about? About the percentage change in the option price in relation to the price of the core asset when the price of the last one moves by one point. What does it mean? It means that if the option lies even in the zone of 68% probability (at the level of the 15th delta), its value will change only by 15% of the price of the core asset. I can not remember exactly what the delta of the 700th strike amount in the beginning of February, but now it is -1. Not only is this extremely impossible!!! So, this also means that when the price of an asset takes one point closer, the cost of this strike will remain unchanged, as it, in principle, has been for two months, although it is growing insignificantly. But as we approach an expiration, the time value naturally absorb all this gain!!!


    And now, being aware of it, answer a question - why would someone buy an unchangeable strike price, which the price is unlikely to reach? This cannot be even described as hedging! Well, depending on the volume of the core asset. And according to the volume of the purchase, this volume is quite considerable!!! But in any case, the following question is relevant: why this strike?!!! Why not the 710th or 720th? And even better 740th, the probability of achieving which is more likely. Well, unfortunately, the truth is inaccessible to us. And it makes no sense to guess.


    It is better to calculate the profits and losses of the transaction participants. The situation at the current moment. First, let's remember what happened:

    1.jpg
    And now let's look what we have:

    2.jpg
    What do we see? A buyer purchased an asset at 0.0006 and the price is now 0.0001. The buyer is in the red. What about a seller? He sold at 0.0006. And is his profit still 0.0006? What is the reverse sale transaction? That's right - buying. That is, profit of the seller is not 0.0006, but slightly less. However, he is in the black! Yes, yes, I know, many have doubts ... So, in that case, I've got a screenshot of Trade Builder that visualizes (and displays in digital form) losses of the seller:
    3 (1).jpg

    And if you still have doubts - there is a screenshot of the simulator selling 0.74 strike:
    P.S. It was just a theory (and simulation). In reality, everything can be far worse and as a result, both the buyer and the seller will lose!!! So think, and do not build theories! Well, or build thoughtfully.

    4.jpg

  2. <a href="https://www.instaforex.com/company_news">&#1060;&#1086;&#1088;&#1077;&#1082;&#1089; &#1087;&#1086;&#1088;&#1090;&#1072;&#1083;</a>
  3. #32
    Forex in the blood
    ----
     
    Ademic is an unknown quantity at this point Ademic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    263
    Accumulated bonus
    67.77 USD
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
    Analysis of market conditions based on options and wave analysis

    I think that options cannot provide a comprehensive picture of the market situation. For example, the options analysis turned to be inaccurate when the euro was trading at 1.05 and 1.1. But for now I’m more interested in the Australian dollar.
    Recently, I forecasted that the aussie will move lower. But I did not specify the time when it will happen. Then I published the first forecast, targeting the level of 0.84 and my second forecast was targeted above 1.
    However, my second forecast is long term. I expect the price to rise above 1 only by the 2023-26 years. So, we need 8 years to confirm this outlook. But options do not show us anything in such a long term.
    Options can provide outlooks for no more than 3 quarters. Currently, the contract with the longest expiration is December this year. But the most accurate forecast can be provided only for the current quarter. What do this month’s figures show us? They show that in June the upper boundary is likely to be located at 0.78 and the lower boundary will be found at 0.738.

    adum8_vv_2018-04-24_10-35-46.jpg

    As we can see, the 0.84 and 0.7 marks are not included into this range. So why did buyers open deals at the strike price of 0.7 two months ago? My technical indicators pointed to the level of 0.84.
    As for the 0.7 mark, I don’t have it on my forecast. As seen on the chart, this is just a support level which is unlikely to be tested. As for the 0.84 mark, specifically 0.845, it is 38.2% Fibonacci correction.
    But options do not show these levels while the technical indicators do. The next level is 0.895. The level of 1.223+ will takes years to be reached. This longer-term planning cannot be carried out with the help of options. It can be done only with the help of wave analysis. However, options are also worth our attention, so we shouldn’t forget about them while making forecasts.

    audusd_month_2018-04-24_10-37-53.jpg

  4. #33
    Forex in the blood
    ----
     
    bukky12 is an unknown quantity at this point bukky12's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    251
    Accumulated bonus
    745.88 USD
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 7 Posts
    Timeframes really exist, they cannot but be!!! Or what the charts demonstrate.

    I often hear the phrase "timeframes does not exist" ... Let's see if that's true... And also, we'll dispel the myth of the optional analysis - that the price chart brings us nothing.

    Firstly, who exactly claims it? Adherents of real data and options in particular. Okay. But how are options calculated? What is the basis of their pricing?

    Everyone knows that the value of an option consists of two components, one of which is the time value. Now listen to these words: time value !!! Their price depends on the time, and thus on the timeframe. Don't you believe? How do you think why the closer to expiration, the narrower the range of probability? Why do the option channel borders narrow near the expiration? Let us suppose that there are seven days left until the expiration. How to calculate the probability of price movement for these seven days? Blindly? Already guessed? Right. Look at the history and take it back 7 days!!! That is, roughly speaking, look at the daily timeframe and take it back ... More precisely, do not even take it back, but take all the values that the price has passed for seven days ... in other words, make a selection. And if the price has passed only 50 points for the last 7 days, so, both volatility and dispersion will be minimal. But the timeframe doesn't have to be daily. It can be different. No one can stop you from making the same selection, like, within a day or even an hour!!! That is just the point that in the calculations we perforce limit ourselves to time frames. Whether we like it or not, the price is also measured by the time!!! Today, milk will cost more than yesterday, because tomorrow it will sour!

    Moreover, options are traded for a certain period, and therefore within a certain timeframe.

    Well, we've taken it back, what's next? you may ask. And then, based on the available historical data, we calculate the distribution of this probability ... the first standard bias and we draw a figure of probabilities (the same dispersion). For example, for the EUR/USD pair and for a range of 7 days it will look like this:

    1.jpg

    That is, the expected range of price deviation from the current one is 1.215-1.228. If the CME did not own historical data, it would not be able to display a chart of this type:

    2.jpg

    And traders around the world would not know what strike they need to buy and what to sell ... !!! Everything happens in that order, not the other way around!!! So, the conclusion is that the chart is primary !!! It's even more significant for periods that exceed the coverage of the option time frames.

    The main problem is that, based on the chart, you can calculate theoretical or historical data. But volatility (and probability) for today might not be the same as yesterday. Therefore, the market is predictable, but only to a certain extent and we can predict about 70-90% of the future movement. The main thing is to distribute your forces so that the remaining 10% will not deprive you of the whole deposit!!! So I wish you a successful trading

  5. #34
    Forex in the blood
    ----
     
    Ademic is an unknown quantity at this point Ademic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    263
    Accumulated bonus
    67.77 USD
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
    Optional Stochastic
    You are probably very interested, what does it look like? And then everything is in words and words ... I think it's time to shed some light on that. And we will do this in comparison with the chart of the main instrument - the EUR/USD pair. So, let's take a look:

    euro_optstoch_2018-04-26_08-57-42.jpg

    The stochastic itself is at the bottom, EUR/USD is at the top. Do not you notice anything? Personally, I see a complete similarity of curves. I do not guarantee fitting with the scale, but I think it's clear that they are fitting. So, we have oversale - around 10%. As is the case with the ordinary stochastic, this does not mean that the pair has nowhere to fall - quite the opposite! And in general, it's a 50-50 chance. I hope you understand what I'm talking about. If you don't, open a tester and run an advisor on stochastics in the visualization mode. It will become clear to you at once, believe me!!! What is the point? The fact is that the price doesn't follow the stochastic ... the stochastic follows the price!!! The asset's price does not care whether someone loses on options and how much he loses!!! The only thing that can happen is the reallocation of funds – puts will be taken off and calls will be bought (fix ... hedge ... just open new positions and so on). Stochastics, in its turn, will slow in the oversale zone, but will be directed downward. The asset can also fail further. If you do not believe me, check it yourself - trust and verify. P.S. Homework: if the price turns around and goes up today, what will the stochastic indicate tomorrow? Think about it, we'll check tomorrow.

  6. #35
    Forex in the blood
    ----
     
    Ademic is an unknown quantity at this point Ademic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    263
    Accumulated bonus
    67.77 USD
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
    Hi!
    Here is my medium-term outlook for the euro.
    The options for euro with expiration in June signals that a new trend is being formed. It means that options traders expect the euro price to change by 720 pips. It is very likely to happen as the price has been trading in the flat zone for too long.
    But the question is, in what direction the price will go. Either it will move towards 1.28 or slide to 1.14.

    34.jpg

    Here are my current plans for the euro (short term):

    I’m going to buy euro. Want to know why?
    First, I see that there are active options near the support level of 1.2150 which is the key level according to my trading strategy. It means that the deals on the spot market are hedged.
    Second (technical analysis + some elements of VSA), a few days before, a bullish candlestick of a big volume has been formed (Candlestick 1 on the chart). This candlestick can be called neither a pin bar, as it does not look like it, nor it is an inside bar as it also looks different. So I just named it Candlestick 1. Bulls were rather strong but they failed to continue movement. Subsequently, bears gained control again and the downward trend has been dominating so far, coming close to the support level.

    Screenshot_1 (1).jpg


    During the movement from Candlestick 1 to the support level sell orders were closed which is proved by a fall in open interest on the futures market. Along with that, bulls were building up their buy trades. Their attempts to reverse the trend can be clearly seen on smaller time frames. Small pin bars (1-2) indicate that the trend paused near the key support. Yesterday’s flat trading suggests that bulls have probably gained liquidity. This idea is supported by a rise of open interest on the futures market.


    12.3.jpg
    And the last thing: when the price is near the support line 1.2150, I don’t think it’s good to sell as selling capacity is too small, and nobody can say for sure what will happen after the support is breached. But these conditions are favorable for placing a short stop order. If the euro will not hit the support at 1.2150 (a false break), then I will reopen my buy trades. I think that bulls will at least reach as far as 1.2289 (at least).
    If the price breaks the support at 1.2150 and holds below it, then my buying scenario will become invalid and I will start selling.

  7. #36
    Forex in the blood
    ----
     
    Ademic is an unknown quantity at this point Ademic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    263
    Accumulated bonus
    67.77 USD
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
    As for the pound, the situation is slightly different. Yesterday the pound updated the current low, continuing the downward trend. The news calendar for the pair is empty today, so data on non-farm payrolls can acts as a driver for a movement like for the euro. On a monthly basis, the pound was fixed below the first level of the buying zone at 1.3590.
    1 (1).jpg
    According to the Global, the pair is at the third level of the buying zone, and still holding above it, the mark of this level is 1.3550.
    2 (2).jpg
    As for the levels, the borders of the channel expanded again and shifted down, and alas, there is no mandatory zone. The signaller indicated the pattern 1-2-3-4. The opening of the day was near the upper border of the channel, so there is hope, though slight, for the beginning of the corrective movement.
    3 (2).jpg
    If the pair can fix above the upper border of the OC, I'll look for purchases

  8. #37
    Forex in the blood
    ----
     
    bukky12 is an unknown quantity at this point bukky12's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    251
    Accumulated bonus
    745.88 USD
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 7 Posts
    Hello, this is a standard situation for Friday Yesterday the euro was flat, and after the Fed's decision on the rate, the pair could not decide on the movement. On a monthly basis, the price is still holding above the first green level at around 1.1950. But there are three more below, and what level will act as a rebounding one, today the report on employment in the labor market of the US will show us.
    11.jpg
    According to the Global, the price is trying to fix above the second level of the buying zone of the indicator at 1.1980. There is a slight hope for the long-awaited correction
    12.jpg
    As for the levels, the borders of the option channel narrowed and shifted upwards. The upper border of the channel is closed by the mandatory zone. I consider this border to be very strong resistance.
    13.jpg
    Therefore, for today I consider two options of the pair movement within a day. A rebound from the upper border of the channel and continuation of the downward trend. Or there will be a breakout of this border on the news and the beginning of the long-awaited correction of the pair.

  9. #38
    Forex in the blood
    ----
     
    bukky12 is an unknown quantity at this point bukky12's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    251
    Accumulated bonus
    745.88 USD
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 7 Posts
    The level of 1.353 which was previously identified we performed
    111.jpg
    Now what? On the current contract, there is nowhere to go. Today, there is expiration, and a pullback is possible. Roughly up to 1.37. As for June, in principle, there is nowhere to go any further, and the optional stochastic is resold:
    222.jpg
    But, as we do remember, its location in the oversold zone indicates the presence of a bearish trend, and its turn does not mean anything yet - the stochastic line is pointing down. In general, the next level on the way is 1.33. So we go to it. Maybe after a pullback. Well, you know the rest

    333.jpg

  10. #39
    Forex in the blood
    ----
     
    bukky12 is an unknown quantity at this point bukky12's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    251
    Accumulated bonus
    745.88 USD
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 7 Posts
    You consider hedgers as participants of the market, THEY ARE NOT MARKET PARTICIPANTS, THEY ARE MANUFACTURERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! They produce and hedge their risks for the time when they sell their products!!!!!!!!! For example, there is Ford, the Japanese ordered Ford for $10 billion, the problem is that Ford in the US will be made in dollars, then it will be sold to Japan in yens and if at the moment of supply, the dollar will be at the top and the yen will be at the bottom, then after Ford receives money from Japan and converts them to the national currency, it will go bankrupt. For this reason, before buying a car, Ford buys yen futures, insuring itself!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And now they do not care what happens with money. They do not care where the price goes, they just insure themselves against default!!!!! Large speculators make money on hedgers, they give money, but it is profitable for them! And the fact that hedgers bought many francs is their insurance against a possible growth. However, experience shows that in 99% of cases, they are against the market, but they are even happy to receive even more! And speculators that Frank sold these dough in the pocket put and do not believe, everyone will be happy and everything with money!

  11. Sonata 19
  12. #40
    Forex in the blood
    ----
     
    bukky12 is an unknown quantity at this point bukky12's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    251
    Accumulated bonus
    745.88 USD
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 7 Posts
    Hello! The assets cut their purchases. That is, they sold them. On the chart, this was reflected by a downward trend, because to sell a lot of volume, without losing an essential asset of the instrument, a counter buyer is needed. That is the reason for declining. Here we need to understand that in order to gain a position, our stars need liquidity and volume. I won't be able to do it in a narrow range. Accumulation is needed. There are phases in the market: accumulation - distribution and culmination. Here is an example of the euro:



    I highlighted zones where they were accumulating and distributing. After each set, there is a disbalance. Impulse. The culmination often happens on a driver: interest rates, non farm, FOMC, and so on. The price will be in such a range until the same assets, or other major participant, gain or lose the position. Such large players have no problems with money, if they wish they can push the market "where necessary" And what is the point? We also need to earn money. If we talk about the euro, then on this instrument, Asset Managers are leading. They have the most open positions. Therefore, they call the shots.



    Pay attention to the highlighted zones. And the price nature at the time of these zones. Assets generate trends, while speculators follow the trend. On May 8, assets shortened longs - -4,242. Before that, they accumulated them up in a falling market. Therefore, we can assume that the global bullish trend will continue. Of course, it is reasonable to analyze these data only globally, in order to guess in what range the instrument will be traded.

+ Reply to Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
Forex Forum Nigeria – Presentation
You are welcome to the Forex Forum Nigeria serving as a virtual salon for communication of traders of all levels. Forex is a dynamically developing financial market which is open 24 hours a day. Anyone can get access to this market via a brokerage company. On this forum you can discuss the numerous advantages of trading on the currency market and all aspects of online trading on MetaTrader4 and MetaTrader5 platforms.

Forex Forum Nigeria – Trading discussions
Every forumite can join a discussion of various issues, including those related to Forex but not limited to. The forum has been designed for sharing opinions and helpful information and is open for both professionals and beginners. Mutual assistance and tolerance are highly appreciated. If you would like to share you experience with others or deepen your knowledge of trading craft, you are most welcome to the forum threads dedicated to trading discussions.

Forex Forum Nigeria – Dialogue between brokers and traders (about brokers)
In order to be successful on Forex, it is crucial to choose a brokerage company with due diligence. Make sure you broker is really reliable! Thus you will be impervious to many risks and will make profitable trades on Forex. On the forum a rating of brokers is represented; it is based on comments left by their customers. Post your opinion about the brokerage company you work with, it will help other traders avoid mistakes and choose a good broker.

Unleashed communication on Forex Forum Nigeria
On this forum you can talk about not only trading issues, but any other topics you like. Offtopping is allowed in a special thread too! Humour, philosophy, social problems or practical wisdom – converse about anything you are interested in, including forex trading if you like!

Bonuses for communication on Forex Forum Nigeria
Those who post messages on the forum can receive money bonuses and use them for trading on an account of a forum sponsor. The forum is not meant for gaining profit; however forumites can get these small bonuses as reward for the time spent on the forum and sharing views on the currency market and trading.