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Thread: Methodology for analyzing the current market situation on the basis of CME reports

  1. #51
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    Here is the current situation on the euro. I donít know whether it is a fact or postfact. My opinion is the following. If yesterday a trader failed to sell and take a part of profit on some price move, this is bad.

    In the current situation, I would not advise you to sell the pair or add more to the available sell positions. I explain what exactly confused me and why I am not going to increase short positions. The reason is that there was a positive delta during yesterdayís decline. I ventured to execute a small deal at 1.1702. I expect the price to decline further. However, I also expect the decline to be confirmed. So, I donít rush to add more positions. I want to check how the price will move close to the level of 1.1702 (my chart is in the area of 1.1612 -1.1630). Only after that, Iíll take a decision on whether to add more to short deals or not. Alternatively, Iíll decide whether to sell or not. If the above-mentioned level is broken during a long bet, Iíll most probably increase my positions on a retracement. If I donít see a breakout, perhaps Iíll open a long intraday bet. Right now, I cannot say for sure what decision Iíll make in the proper moment.

    Once again, I insist that it doesnít make sense to increase long bets at present. This is my viewpoint.

    A few words about options Ö Options, which expire in September, are now reversing into short positions. However, we need some signs to confirm that. What we have to do for a while is to wait and refrain from entering the market.

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  3. #52
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    Letís look at EUR/GBP. The pair made a price move, which constitutes 74% of EUR/USD. Interesting! Most traders expected EUR/GBP to hit 0.8750, but optimists were betting on 0.8650. However, something went wrong and the pair is developing a steady rally without any retracements. If the rally carries on, EUR/USD will also follow. From my viewpoint, the main levels of 1.1490/1.15 are impassable. They look like concrete. In case the price enters 1.15, this will be for a short time for sure. A good idea is to buy EUR/USD. The recent inflation data from the US is rather solid, but not superb.

    Making the logical conclusion, the US Federal Reserve is likely to take a pause until September/October before the next rate hike. Mario Draghi, on the contrary, did everything possible last week to evade the question about tapering the QE program.

    I agree that it is complicated psychologically to trade in the flat market. It is easy to make a mistake when recognizing when a price exits from the trading range. Speaking about EUR/USD, the flat trade will be over soon. This is my own viewpoint and I donít insist on its truth. Considering the flat situation for the daily chart, here are my conclusions. First, I see a decreasing volume of the daily trade. It indicates that the flat market is gradually coming to an end. In the recent days, a small downward channel has been formed. The price is making lower lows that looks like invitation to selling. This is my intraday analysis.



    Now, my analysis for the 1-hour chart. Yesterday, the level which looks like a local spring was tested. In my opinion, this test failed completely, thus forming a double spring. I guess this price move undermined the level. In other words, in the flat market the bear sentiment is dominating the bull sentiment. Buyers (or bulls) are still weak. Yesterday, bulls were not able to refresh a local intraday high. From my viewpoint, logically the price is going to extend its decline to the lower border of the trading range. On the other hand, Iím not 100% sure that buyers are too weak. They could revive at some point, to be more exact during the second test of 1.1612. So, I expect the price to decline at least one more time to 1.1612. When it happens, Iím going to make a decision in that trading context. Either the price will break out 1.1612 and continue falling or the price will bounce and extend yesterdayís rally. Iím more inclined toward a breach of the lower border. But I donít rule out the alternative scenario. Letís wait!


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  5. #53
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    Letís look at EUR/GBP. The pair made a price move, which constitutes 74% of EUR/USD. Interesting! Most traders expected EUR/GBP to hit 0.8750, but optimists were betting on 0.8650. However, something went wrong and the pair is developing a steady rally without any retracements. If the rally carries on, EUR/USD will also follow. From my viewpoint, the main levels of 1.1490/1.15 are impassable. They look like concrete. In case the price enters 1.15, this will be for a short time for sure. A good idea is to buy EUR/USD. The recent inflation data from the US is rather solid, but not superb.

    Making the logical conclusion, the US Federal Reserve is likely to take a pause until September/October before the next rate hike. Mario Draghi, on the contrary, did everything possible last week to evade the question about tapering the QE program.

    I agree that it is complicated psychologically to trade in the flat market. It is easy to make a mistake when recognizing when a price exits from the trading range. Speaking about EUR/USD, the flat trade will be over soon. This is my own viewpoint and I donít insist on its truth. Considering the flat situation for the daily chart, here are my conclusions. First, I see a decreasing volume of the daily trade. It indicates that the flat market is gradually coming to an end. In the recent days, a small downward channel has been formed. The price is making lower lows that looks like invitation to selling. This is my intraday analysis.



    Now, my analysis for the 1-hour chart. Yesterday, the level which looks like a local spring was tested. In my opinion, this test failed completely, thus forming a double spring. I guess this price move undermined the level. In other words, in the flat market the bear sentiment is dominating the bull sentiment. Buyers (or bulls) are still weak. Yesterday, bulls were not able to refresh a local intraday high. From my viewpoint, logically the price is going to extend its decline to the lower border of the trading range. On the other hand, Iím not 100% sure that buyers are too weak. They could revive at some point, to be more exact during the second test of 1.1612. So, I expect the price to decline at least one more time to 1.1612. When it happens, Iím going to make a decision in that trading context. Either the price will break out 1.1612 and continue falling or the price will bounce and extend yesterdayís rally. Iím more inclined toward a breach of the lower border. But I donít rule out the alternative scenario. Letís wait!


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