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Thread: Methodology for analyzing the current market situation on the basis of CME reports

  1. #11
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    Hello, everyone!
    Unfortunately, Im not at my work PC right now, so today Ill drop some details.
    Earlier I expected the price to go to 1.1850, but it didnt go there, moving upwards to 1.25 instead.
    As my forecast failed, Im developing new strategies now and making new forecasts.
    As for the euro-dollar pair, it is trading at a quite interesting spot.
    It looks like buying, but at the same time, its too early for purchases.
    Look at the attached chart for my new method that does not test history:
    The end of the decline is beyond the dome boundaries (marked in pink). Do not care about the text on the image I borrowed the image from another guy, so pay attention only to the pink circles.

    cm.jpg

    On the other hand, there is another development:
    The range of 1.2200 1.2150
    Will the level of 1.2150 play the support role for the second time?

    h.jpg

    Thank you!

  2. Fb
  3. #12
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    It's interesting, but how do the ideas that the market is chaos with the absolute order of the normal Gaussian distribution, given on the example of a board with balls, are combined in the head? The normal Gaussian distribution refers to the CLT. Central limit theorems (CPT) are a class of theorems in the theory of probability claiming that the sum of a sufficiently large number of weakly dependent random variables having roughly the same scales (none of the components dominates, does not contribute to the sum of the weigh, and has a distribution close to normal. The obvious question to ask is: how weakly dependent is the random variables, i.e. large players, in the global world? And the second question, do they have the same scale and no one dominates? The market is still a nonequilibrium environment, a factor called "dealer", aka a liquidity provider, maintains equilibrium in it. We do not know all the intricacies of the market, but we should not run to extremes, proving that the market is working on the Gaussian distribution, or that this is a nonequilibrium chaotic system. Again, the very assumption of indeterminacy is important here. This law is subject to a lot of things: for example, from the fruit size of any sort of any plant and balls on the board to the capacity of the subway carriages (the busiest are in the center, the less crowded - the last ones). Although in each of the examples under certain conditions the normal distribution MAY shift, and may become abnormal. That's what the market is about. Balance is a normal distribution in accordance with all parameters; disbalance is abnormal one.


    Let us leave these fantasies. No, well, imagine. I go to the RT site to see their newsline, and the use of the Gauss curve is getting slaughtered in there, as applied to the election. Again, the very assumption of indeterminacy is important here. This law is subject to a lot of things: for example, from the fruit size of any sort of any plant and balls on the board to the capacity of the subway carriages (the busiest are in the center, the less crowded - the last ones). Although in each of the examples under certain conditions the normal distribution MAY shift, and may become abnormal. That's what the market is about. Balance is a normal distribution in accordance with all parameters; disbalance is abnormal one.

  4. #13
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    The reports on EUR/USD are just fantastic for second consecutive day - the MaxPain points are sitting tightly at the top, however, the wave analysis indicates that we are in the downward abcH4 wave, the aH4 wave has passed, and the bH4 wave is being completed, while the downward dD1 wave has already been. Once upon a time one of the traders warned not to go against the H4 trend. He is one hundred percent right, although he sometimes breaks the rule)


    13.jpg

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    How have we stooped so low! Now the dolls publish data about their positions! And where do you get these numbers from? I hope that these data provide reliable but very secret sources in some mysterious Swiss bank. Well, seriously, you've been great! Trading boldly, out in the open, actually giving signals here. As for the fact that there are dolls of all kinds in the market, or someone who is ready to collect our stop orders every time - this is a philosophical matter. To a greater degree, it is better to consider why it turns out that most lose money, but not earn? Maybe this is about the same approach to trading? Especially about the psychology of trading behavior? I believe that herein lies the so-called "dolls"
    The following is often recommended to cut losses and let profits grow. That's right, but why in practice, things don't work out the way most want? Again dolls? All this data is in free access. But do not forget that this is only partial information. If the bank is looking one way or another, this doesn't mean that it has only one naked position without additional insurances. I think that banks are not very interested in the clients to look into the banks' pockets, and even copy their actions. Perhaps this is specially done to just disorient beginners... In any case, you can and you should watch these data and choose a bank or several banks the forecasts of which have the best results.

  6. #15
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    To simplify things, then when the price hangs around the balance, teeth-grinding starts here. Why? Yes, because they get into transactions near this balance) But when the price is at the borders, where you need to take deals, it does not interest anyone there, or rather interests, but.. The price has gone, so they go looking for guilty parties on the forum, in general, under the same scenario

    GBPUSDH1.jpg

    It was often recommended to take a deal from the side, close how much you think is right on the balance, transfer the rest to the breakeven point and forget, then only wait until the price comes to the border again.

  7. #16
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    As I see, TST levels show the same picture on the chart of the British pound. The quotes are still below the balance line but above the obligatory zone. The only difference is that the trading range has narrowed. The demand is in the area of 1.3745-1.3780 while the supply is located near 1.3979-1.4001 (the boundary of the channel at 1.3977 reinforces the level)
    Ive spotted one more level at which the price paused yesterday and today the balance of 1.3906 is located there. From this level I expect a decline towards the obligatory zone.
    I will not reenter the market at this level as some key reports are scheduled for release today.

    79.jpg

    The euro is also trading between the balance line and the obligatory zone. The trading range is even narrower. The important levels may appear only near the channel boundaries according to TST. The demand level remained in the same area at 1.2250-1.2264. It is below the lower boundary of 1.2302 which is a good sign. The price can slide by 50 points. If it happens, I will open buy trades.
    Sell trades are recommended from the supply level of 1.2425-1.2456. The upper boundary of the channel is inside the zone of this level, so I will wait until the prices rebounds from it.

    93.jpg

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    dealers are engaged within the pastime, which may be defined by way of their call: they sell the asset (offer an possibility to shop for/promote the asset) to all different agencies that make money on fluctuations inside the futures exchange price, that is act as the sell side. Their income is unfold/commissions. certainly, they do now not trade on rise/fall, they make sure their dangers between the markets, and the boom/fall in their function isn't associated with how they are expecting the motion of an asset but are related to the conduct of all of the different individuals.

  10. #18
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    Hi everyone! Speaking about the EUR/USD pair, I havent made analysis of options sentiment yet. However, Im ready to share my analysis of the futures chart and its volatility. Looking at a 1-month chart, the chart showed a waves fall at the early trading day. Apparently, somebody closed long positions. Then, in subsequent minutes somebody bought the pair again and raised the wave a bit higher. We see a waves peak on a 5-minute chart.

    12.3.jpg

    What conclusion can we make? The price rally started on March 1 with a breach of the lower border of a flat range (1.2163). This waves behavior is a good reason for a conclusion that the pair can extend its rally with a target level at the upper border of a flat range (1.2554), which is also medium-term resistance. The rally can meet an obstacle at 1.2445 which acts as local resistance. Judging by the waves jump, I suggest the scenario that this level can be at least tested if the situation does not change radically today. The brave scenario is a breach of the local resistance level and a further climb to 1.2554. This is my outlook for today. Forewarned is forearmed.

    15 .jpg

  11. #19
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    The yen
    CFTC Stochastic is between the overbought and oversold zones. Meanwhile, dealers continue to increase the volume of their sell trades.

    1.jpg

    According to the CFTC reports, the market is waiting for further strengthening of the Japanese yen.
    As for the options levels, there is quite a big volume at the strike price of 109,89(1/0,0091):

    2.jpg

    What is this strike level? It is the level that I could never expect to appear on the chart.

    3.jpg

    So, the possibility to reach it is close to zero, i.e. it is almost impossible. Here we should also mention delta, well speak about it later.

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  14. #20
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    Let me say a couple of words about the Australian dollar. Last week I noted that the market was uncertain.
    So, all I could do was to wait and see and watch for alternative scenarios. However, those scenarios were not bound to come true because they were not based on real data and were cooked up. However, I had a chance to exit the market
    What has changed since then? Actually, a lot has changed! CFTC Stochastic reversed and now it is down-oriented. Following it, speculators increased volumes of their sell trades.

    a.jpg

    Speaking about the sentiment on the options market, selling pressure can lead the price towards the long-awaited level of 0.76. What does it mean? It means a possibility of correction at least. What is so unusual about this level of 0.76? Lets have a look at the chart. We see that the price is in the upward channel and the last correction level was at 78.6% Fibonacci.

    b.jpg

    As during the current correction we have already passed the 61.8% Fibonacci, we are heading towards 78.6% which is located near 0.7628.

    c.jpg

    Importantly, it does not mean that the price will reverse from this level after hitting it, nor does it signal that the price will move further. This level is just a long-awaited target.

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