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Thread: Market Vision of currency pairs

  1. #61
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    Hello, everyone.
    I keep my eyes on the euro, according to highs, it looks much better against the background of the pound. The instrument is ready for a medium-term trend change. According to some data on May 9, the OI decreased by -6,120.


    That day, the lows of December 19, 2017 were updated. Consequently, we can assume that the shorts were shorted. This is confirmed by the delta. On the delta, I did not see limit sales, therefore, the lack of pressure from sales gave the opportunity to get a pullback.



    Trading idea: Work in long. Trend is globally downward, do not forget about it. Shorts are also relevant. The drivers of the FOMC protocol continue to be worked out. The range for sales: 1,1958 - 1,2009 - this is the range of M30 standard deviation on May 2.
    Market conditions:
    Longs are also relevant until we break through the level of 1,1853 - this is the area from which we were collecting limit longs. Range of the day: 1,1891 - 1,2009
    According to the current state of the trend, I did not see the market conditions either for purchases or for sales. According to the footprint, the reworked volume has a northern reaction. And while this volume is not unloaded ... it's early to talk about shorts.


    So, I consider two options for opening a position: 1. Long. Purchase from the level of 1,1967 after the breakout. On the test. With targets: 1,1990. 2. Short. From the level of 1,1990 with targets of 1,1967 - ... and lower) When the market conditions are implemented. In general, I expect the following:


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  3. #62
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    Hello, everyone.
    Briefly about the main thing: EURO
    The trading idea from Monday 14.05 was worked out by 90%. On the Americans, the reaction of the south was given. They merged the instrument from the range of the FOMC protocols. Globally and locally, we are still looking to the south.
    Working range for Tuesday: 1,1891 - 1,1996
    Now in more detail ...
    On the footprint, the Americans give the bottom. It is important! Movements in the direction of the trend. From the top, from the priors, the reaction of density is short. Hence, short positions are are being gained. This is confirmed by the delta:



    On the screen, I highlighted the working pattern: Volume + Trend + Test + Confirmation. Intraday targets of the trend: The lower limit of the day's range: 1,1891 - from where the shorters were bought out by limits. Therefore, I expect a reaction at the level. If I succeed to consolidate below, then the next goal is a local low: 1,1822
    Today, Asians have been trading the euro in a quite narrow range. We got resistance at the level of 1,1937 - the lower limit of the prior of the Americans. Therefore, I expect the trend to continue.
    On the delta, it is clearly shown that from the tops, longs were accepted by limits, which points to a seller in the market. If the current prices satisfy, the trend will continue:



    So, I expect the following:


  4. #63
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    Hello, everyone. The pound has not yet been adjusted, and buy on it still exist but on the very edge. Now only on H1, bulls resist, and consolidation below 3545 will send the pair down. However, I do not expect much down and the whole 35th figure is covered with strong supports starting from 3535. The main one is at 3500, but the bottoms are near and I'm not going to catch 20-30p to test an annual low. In support of bulls, I would single out the daily candles where a very powerful model, a two-fractal candle, appeared. Look through the history and see what they mean when they appear on local high or low. Therefore, when approaching to the top of the 35th figure, I will close the greater part of the sales and look for a place to enter into purchases.



    ---------- Post added at 12:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:43 PM ----------

    As for the pound, the beginning of the week is almost as expected. There was a "bumpiness", only not in the range as it was supposed:



    but over the range and between the level of 3610, which keeps the price from a growth:



    Personally, as I have imagined, I'm waiting for the exit to the north side. And this is not the first time I have written the reason here. But once again I repeat, two ranges of "buying out" serve as support for us. From the upper one, we have already rebounded and we are in it now. And it seems that the price is trying to go north from it. I'll attach the old picture:



    But why do I regard it as support and why do I think that we should not put it down?! So, again, when the low to 3459 was updated, then there was a huge volume, after which the price went to the north, and then it is persistently held above the area of "buying out", thereby creating good support.



    And as you can see on the picture, this was the largest volume of the last month, and I do not think that it's so easy to "be done" with it. So, from it, I expect a significant northern correction as a minimum, and a turnback with targets in the 50's figures as a maximum.

  5. #64
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    Hello! As for the pound, yesterday's purchase from the lower border of the channel with a short stop still exists, and inside the day I do not take a long-term view, at the moment I'm drawing such an option with growth in the direction to the mandatory zone and there, if given, I will close. The situation with the triangle is not quite clear for me and I'm going to be careful here with medium-term retention.



    To sell or not? From the mandatory zone or from the upper border of the channel? Well, let's react depending on the situation, whether we are there and if so, when. Since, according to the global (I showed it on Monday) and the monthly time frame, we are in the lower levels, and a visit to the yellow and white monthly levels looks tempting.


  6. #65
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    If things move according to an unplanned scenario, then it is better to close such a deal until the situation is clearer. So I did. The sale of GBP/USD is closed with a profit of 65 points.
    Why was such a decision made?
    Yesterday, the bears were able to update the local low just by a few points and now the currency pair is trading above the support of 1.3450, that is, the set of positions within the range continues: 1.3450 - 1.3605. To date, the publication of any important news on Great Britain is not scheduled, so it doesn't make any sense to hold a short position near the lower border of the range. And, if consolidation continues, then the probability of the pair rising to the upper limit and the execution of my breakeven stop increases.
    I sketched out the scenarios, according to which I plan to open purchases in the future:


    Of the open deals, I have only the purchase of natural gas (# NG). The long position on the air was knocked out at night, and a pull in the EUR/CHF sales was finally closed with a total profit. Gas was transferred to the breakeven point, because the order is below the "mirror level" of 2.770. I expect that from this mark, the bulls will start to increase speed again and the growth of the “blue fuel" will continue:



    I have just opened a light oil sale (#CL). The risk to the deal is minimal - the stop loss is put several points higher than yesterday's spike (the H1 time frame). If it works, then I plan to restart when rebounding from the resistance level of 71.85. False breakout will be fine for me, too.
    The ground for sale: the H1 time frame – the Over & Under pattern was formed; the H4 time frame - the Double top figure is being formed.


  7. #66
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    Hello, everyone! Let's see what today can bring us. The levels give us a selling sign, the mandatory zone is above the price. But here's the thing... We are moving flat and drawing an expanding triangle, MZ has been in the same diapason for seven days. A shot can be at any time. Therefore, I will work with half of the working lot and look for sales from MZ with the target of 1.3460. The dollar index drew the 1-2-3-4-5 pattern and if not broken, with the help of majors, we can pass well into buy. As for the pound, I will consider buy orders after breaking through the upper OC and consolidating there)))




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  9. #67
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    Hello, everyone! As for the pound, there was a northern movement, which resulted in the price increase above 3550, above the upper range (about which I have repeatedly mentioned). I expected this movement during the day, but in the afternoon we once again "took" it on the bottom and in the lower range of "buying out". But let's see what this movement indicates:



    As we can see on the screen, all the decrease was sold in the market, and it is not surprising that if going through the forum, many even those, who looked to the north, have already changed their course to the south. But these sales were also "bought out" by the limit orders. But I also wanted to note the range (it's highlighted with a black rectangle on the screen) - this is the moment when they traded partially, in the lower range and between the two ranges. In general, the point is that the price was almost in the flat, while the delta was falling, so they collected the sellers. Apparently, they were "carried away" in the minus by going to the north. Well, let's look at one more screen, where these ranges are highlighted:



    As you can see, yesterday there was another attempt to break below the "buying out" range, but again they were quickly returned back, after which they "traded" the range (in the negative delta, as we already pointed out before). After that, there was an exit upward with a price outperforming even the upper range. Now we can monitor a return to the upper range, I think before the arrival of Europe, which will pick up the Asian movement and continue it in the northern direction. So, these are my expectations for today.

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