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Thread: Market Vision of currency pairs
  1. #1
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    Market Vision of currency pairs

    Here are few market moves overnight. To begin with, the pound sterling failed to rally and closed buy orders just to be on the safe side. I was lucky that the GBP/USD pair did not slump to the open level at night.
    Second, on the contrary the euro didnít reveal interesting market moves. This makes a trading range narrower. Iím not going to trade this instrument. Thereís nothing to discuss here. The EUR/USD is still trading sideways. Iím bored with this.

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    Third, the New Zealand dollar was among the best performers. The kiwi is trading exactly as I predicted. The NZD/USD pair hit yesterdayís target of the Shark pattern and surpassed it. Probably, the pair is now reversing upward again following my words about a deep correction before a new rally. Nevertheless, I changed my mind to open a new long order. Thatís what I saw:

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    It turns out that being at the same point I and the US banks are looking at different directions. Well, letís do this way. Iím going to open a small buy order (0.01) from the current levels according to my yesterdayís forecast for the second climb to the upward target levels (423.6 - 7280). Some banks placed stop orders there. Iím going to set stop loss where banks want to take profits. We will see who is smarter.

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    P.S. A small remark. Banks set stop loss not at my target level, but further by about 100 pips. My aim is to work out my target level.

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    I've rehearsed a plan of action for today as smooth as silk. Everything was as expected. Expected Range Volume, or more simply, the expected intraday range, gives really good tips. In the morning, the action plan was as follows: when the price is returned to the level of 1.2262, I'll open a purchase with stop and profit orders of 100 points. For growth, today I see the main thing is overcoming the level of 1.2314. If the price is discarded in every possible way, then we can leave the position, or get a stop loss, and then watch how they agree among themselves.

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    That's how it happened. In the morning, the price confirmed a decline to the level of 1.2262, where a large volume of put options was located. Further there was an increase from this level to 1.2314. This was just the main level which should have been achieved today. Exactly in the range of 1.2314 there was a fight for the further course of the price. Specially watched this. And the FOMC Press Conference was scheduled. That's just when there was the victory of buyers. Now we can wait quietly for the upper range at 1.2412. This range is relevant for today. Tomorrow it may change, but the trend, I think, is still clear. There is a screen from the account as a confirmation:

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    For the period of news, Insta has disconnected the server at all, so there are some gaps. Most importantly, the gaps are in our favor. So, the position on a purchase, that was opened yesterday, today is already closed with profit. Point to point, the price worked out the target, followed by a large corrective movement. Honestly, I didn't expect such accuracy with profit.

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    Today, it appears that the market has no intention to give up and stop here. I draw such conclusions for a reason. The reason for this is today's expected range, Expected Range Volume. At the moment, here's such a situation:

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    The level of 1.2300 on futures acts as a very powerful support, as there was the largest volume of put options. I do not see strong call levels. The nearest strong level, which is above the current price, is at 1.2600 on futures, and the level of 1.2512 is on forex, taking into account the forward point. Another interesting level is Max pain. Today, it will act as a good area for opening purchases. At the moment, it is located at the level of 1.2400 on futures (corrected price for forex is 1.2312).

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    I myself have already bought the euro from the level of 1.2340, which, according to the technology, can serve as a support. If the price drops to 1.2312, we can buy again. The main thing is that it does not violate the trading risks and is included. Summarizing the discussion above, the market is still strong. Yesterday, buyers took the initiative. The best positions are purchases. The main purchase is from the level of 1.2312. I set stop and profit orders by 100 points.

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    As for Moving Averages, there was a tense moment in the morning, when the support of bulls was pierced down at 2357, then upwards (but I warned that another jump is needed), at the opening of London they went down on real volumes. 2363 became for bears. And only after the States worked out the bottom (by the way, they reached the balance of TST at 2287) and calmed down - they approached the section - the bear support at 2311. Here, apparently, we'll fall asleep, handing over the keys to Asia.
    Hello! I agree. Europeans often like to start a trading session "in the wrong way" They will make a push into the direction of decline, break the local minimum, so to speak, for "confirmation of the intention", then turn the medal on back over ... Well, okay, let this temperament of Europeans be a signal for the best entry points for us. With points of exit, Americans will help to understand their love to high volatility and the news.
    I myself bought from the previously assumed level of 1.2300. But such a mood in the market, as now, discourage taking part in trading at all.
    Greetings. Today, I also have a buy order, almost from the price zone that you have marked. You think right. Increasingly, I'm an adherent of optional levels, where zones of increased interest are present. This is reflected both in large volumes of put options (purchases) and in call options (sales). I use the daily expected range as a basis and make an action plan from it. At the moment, I have a strong resistance level at 1.2512. So, our purchases have so much room to grow.

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    An additional indicator of the fact that "strong participants of the market" are interested in the growth of the euro, is open purchases on the euro.
    Hello! Sometimes I myself watch the actions of banks. I am a little skeptical of this matter, but there is still some truth in this. If you look at the profitability of all these positions, then their accuracy and truthfulness catch the eye. Among the many open orders, on various positions, orders bring profit to their holders in almost all cases.

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    Well, we will watch, "take a note" their logic of actions and try to tie it to their trading system.

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    Morning everyone! Yesterday, it was an interesting day in terms of market moves. I expect this trading week to finish on the same positive note. Letís start with the euro as usual. The EUR/USD pair opened below the balance of 1.2309 and the important zone of 1.2310-1.2315. The price broke these resistance levels by the first candle. We can predict a decline back to the important zone and from there the pair would grow to the upper border of 1.2383. I think the pair is unlikely to go higher today. Yesterday, there was an intraday high at that area. We can plan sell orders from the upper border and close to it. When the price reaches this level, it could be late at night. In this case Iím not going to open sell positions for the weekend. If this level is reached earlier, then everything is possible.

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    Speaking about the GBP/USD pair, the price was inside the range between the important zone of 1.4062-1.4096 and the balance of 1.4213. From my viewpoint, the market conditions favor buy orders as the pair opened in proximity to the important zone and there is the lower border of 1.4056 next to it. The pair is still unable to rebound and close near weekly highs. So it would be a good idea to buy the pair when it returns to the important zone. Sell orders should be planned from the balance, but there is no guarantee that the pair will go to that level. If it reaches the balance, it is likely to happen before the market close.

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    Letís discuss the CAD/USD pair. The situation here is right the opposite to GBP/USD. CAD/USD is currently between the important zone of 1.2941-1.2973 and balance of 1.2854. Since early morning, the price is declining. The pair opened in proximity to the important zone, close to it we can see the upper border of 1.2993. Sell orders were a good decision from the important zone where there was a balance yesterday. The price has already left that area. Now it would be a good idea to open buy orders near the balance where the pair started growing yesterday. I donít expect any interesting market moves today. The pair is set to trade between the important zone and the balance.

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    Well, that's the beginning of a new week ... At the same time, there are already updated levels on Monday. So, I will plough through it.
    Euro. With the opening of the session, the pair went up and already passed through the balance of the day of 1.2360:

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    It seems that the euro decided to go under the red scenario and test the zone of 1.2388-1.2420 at first, and only then turn down:

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    Although the bottoms don't seem to be passed today. There is a bottom of the day channel at 1.2308. So, from this side, there is confirmation too... Deeper decline will obviously not occur today, but on Tuesday.
    Pound. This currency has also been going up since the opening of the session. Obviously, here is an effect of the inertia of Friday... Additional support appeared at 1.4108 as a lower boundary of the day channel:

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    But GBP/USD is a very dynamic pair, so I keep my forecast of Saturday in force:

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    Both 1.4108 and 1.4085-1.4075 can easily do! For the pound, such a breakdown of the lower border of the channel absolutely is not binding in any respect... Once it is pierced, then it will return back to the channel! Just in case they do not go first to a rollback, and immediately fly on tops, then the drop will be deeper. But so far I'm waiting for a passage under the scenario - waiting for full-fledged trading in Asia...

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    As for the euro, it's a pity that 2386 has not been given, but I'm patient. If not now then already, I think we will visit the 24th. And Europe will logically roll back, I knowingly said that below 2324 we need to catch only buys.

    Here's the picture of the pound. Yesterday I had no strengths to post and wanted to look at the TST levels.

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    According to the CME data, I did not look so high. But the bottom of 4105 and as a possible 4088 - right into "one point with you beat"
    I highlighted 4168 and only after the breakdown - its further growth. As we see, Asia bumped into it.
    By the way, thatís where I sold the pound


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    P.S.1 To be honest, I am not very happy about this growth, since for a real continuation upwards, pairs need to be flat and strengthen the bottoms. As for euro 2330 and pound, the bottom is the 41st. Only thereafter, since Wednesday, you can "get ahead of yourself". If we begin to update highs today, neither growth nor movement will come out of it.
    P.S. 2 In my theory, that's what will happen with euro

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    Well, the "sabbat" in the market continues. If we pass 2790, then the target is in the 26th figure. The pound is without a mandatory zone and the balance is at the top again. Therefore, 4190-4298 is its operating range. As for the euro, everything is more complex - the rapid growth of quotations is only gaining momentum and the balance of the day with the mandatory zone serves as support at the bottom. Therefore, I will cover a part of sales at 2423, I'll buy at 2378. The top was shown yesterday Ė 2490, today there is a powerful barrier, so it will be difficult to pass 2498, really difficult.The maximum increase peaked on the 1245 strike call and this is 2478 and there is a real possibility to tarde there. Therefore, the maximum upward movement is40p, the maximum downward movement is 80p, so everyone should select priorities.

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    It would be logical not to let out bears today, and to pull without a pullback as much as possible until tomorrow afternoon. Then the piano will fall with a crash. If they are unloaded, then they are likely to hang out on the highs of the year until the end of the month

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    Hi!
    Here is my outlook for majors according to TST levels. As usually, let me start from the euro.

    We can see continuation of the bullish trend here. The price is above the balance line of 1.2427 and the obligatory zone of 1.2356-1.2385. Besides, the lower boundary near 1.2356 is close to the obligatory zone which signals a possibility of a further rise. Today the price may rise to at least 1.2490 (the upper boundary). However, as the price often breaks this level by 50 points, then we can expect a rally above this level. It will give us a great opportunity to sell.

    We should buy only upon a pullback. If we take a closer look, weíll see that the price is in the narrow flat zone, but it can exit this zone in any direction. So, my observations are based on pure guesswork. I will sell only above the 25th figure and will buy from the obligatory zone today.

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    On the pound sterling chart, there is no obligatory zone and we can expect a reversal. A good entry point in this case is 1.4298. It is located near this yearís high, but the price will probably fail to reach this level and the pair will decline from 1.4250-1.4260.
    Todayís target lies at the lower boundary of 1.4190. Below this level we can start buying.

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    The loonie stubbornly copies moves of the sterling, but in the mirror image. It has even opened without the obligatory zone, and we can expect a rise today. However, it can fail to reach the balance line at 1.2731.

    In March a level was formed that is too tough and the price cannot breach it. As today the bias is bullish according to TST, we can expect that this level will not be broken again, and the price will go north from it. Speaking about the upper boundary at 1.2856, the price opened near it, so it wonít be a resistance today, as the price may break the boundary by 40-50 points.
    Meanwhile, at the levels above 50 points, where the upper boundary and the obligatory zone were found yesterday, we can think about opening a sell trade

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    Greetings. As for EURO... But the tops were not completely passed, although the mandatory approach already existed. Call options, characterized by the largest increase in OI, are 1240 and correspond to the price of 2423. Of course, Europe would like to go there, but it is not a fact. It is interesting that this strike was hidden behind the barriers and at the bottom of 2406 and at the top of 2440 and this range, I believe, can become the day's high. The lower ones are much more attractive and we must first make 2391. So let's pass and take a ticket to 2356. Perhaps, 2321 but somewhere there will be a serious fight for possession of the "first night" with 2298 or a throwback to the 24th.

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    P.S. While I was posting, the price just came to 2391, but I also managed to sell in the morning.

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    Hello, everybody! A for the pound, I accidentally entered into sales, because I set a pending order to the previous lower boundary, but forgot about it. I won't remove it, because despite the buying sign, the lower border is in the mandatory zone, but there is another sign that the price has opened under (and even if slightly higher and next to the lower boundary, then it can pierce it). That's the situation with pound, especially when the yesterday's debt on the broken border was worked out. Now here's the situation with euro. And here today there is no obligatory zone, and this is now a sign of a turn to the south. The price opened near the lower border of OK 1.2407, so there is a high probability of breaking the channel down by 50 or more points, and as for the euro, this happens without it, the probability increases. And given the bullish Wolfe on the dollar index, I expect the pair to decline and most likely from the current, as there is no need to wait until it reaches the balance at 1.2515. Regarding purchases, I don't think I will have them today.

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    As for the aussie, I leaned towards to the north, but the price opened below the balance of 0.7721 and the mandatory zone of 0.7714-0.7721. It opened next to the lower border of OK 0.7674, which indicates that the price is likely to be able to break it. There's one exception if we draw a level from the last low on March 21, from which there was a rebound, we get a level of demand, which we still can not break through. So sales should be only from the mandatory zone, and there we can pass to the breakeven point and wait for the price to see its behaviour near the level.

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    Now the most interesting part is loonie. It seems to be a twin brother of pound on the levels, which walks on its hands. Surprisingly, it seems that way. Opening at the border of 1.2882, which is in the mandatory area of 1.2867-1.2890. It is like a selling situation, but the opening is near the border again, so you can not exclude the probability of its piercing and straight from the current. Secondly, bullish Wolfe on dollar. And thirdly, the green level that yesterday highlighted and indicated purchases from ir, is still operating and if the price approaches it today, then can bounce again and go to the north. Regarding the loonie, today I will leave purchases, in the evening I'll probably remember, but it depends where the pair will be at that moment.

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