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Thread: Market Vision of currency pairs

  1. #91
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    Hi, everyone!

    The euro did not provide any surprises at the opening of the session, so the market was trading calm.
    However, buyers managed to reap profits at the opening, gaining about 10 pips.
    As for the options, the picture is the following:
    EUR/USD EUUN8 Expected Range

    On this chart there has been no changes so far.
    Thus, the nearest call level on the euro lies at 1.1750. Sell trades can be opened at this level.
    I opened my sell trade before this level became important. The pending order is at the critical level of the payoff for risk.
    The put level on the traded volume is located at 1.1650. So, this level is not the last important range. There is also the key support level of 1.1500.



    Payoff for risk
    The payoff for risk in options trading is also quite different at these levels.
    Thus, the payoff for risk at the put level of 1.165 is 38 points.
    On the call options with the strike price at 1.1750 the payoff is 64 points.
    With the forward point of 75 points, the key level for the call options is 1.1740.



    Trading idea:
    I think that sell deals are in priority now.
    The level of 1.1675 is the resistance level. We can open sell trades at this level.
    In this case the take profit level should be set at 1.1575, and the stop loss level should be set at 1.1775.
    The trend remains bearish, but it can reverse and in this case I will open long deals.


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  3. #92
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    Hello. Euro: Asia is trading on the dollar strengthening. Consequently, the trading idea remains the same Ė long positions. Now I will explain. First, you need to understand who is who. Who is the market leader? So, Asians often pull prices up to the "preferable levels". Now they have given the bottom to the lower border of the density of Americans, and this is a good signal to open a long position at the density lower border test. I made these conclusions, referring only to the graph. Now look at the delta:

    According to the delta, we see the divergence. But this is not a classical one. Now people will use the moving average to sell. But for the delta, there is a limit buyer. And here are Weak hands. That is, the crowd, chaos. Therefore, the trading idea is long positions from the accumulation limit of the lower density level, i.e. 1.1632 level. Market conditions: for purchases we need to wait for conditions. These are micro-densities on M1. There must be a floor, from it we must see a micro-reaction towards the north, and only after that we enter the market on retest. It looks like this:


  4. #93
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    Hi, everyone!

    Earlier, I wrote that the euro was trading in a local flat zone. The upper boundary of that zone was located at 1.1675 while the lower boundary was found at 1.1625. Based on that, I had the following scenario: a break and successful test of 1.1675 which would be a signal to buy. The key level for fixing profits is near 1.1725.

    My expectations of a further rise of the euro were confirmed. Ahead of the American trading session, the price managed to break the level of 1.1675 by 30 points. It was enough for me to start searching for buying opportunities. After the break, the price tested the level successfully.

    At such moments it is good to open trades with a signal.
    I did not open a deal, as I was not at my desk at the time when the signal was formed.
    I have one open buy deal, and the price is approaching the profit fixing level.



    Speaking about the pound sterling, I wrote earlier that there was a horizontal range from 1.3220 to 1.3310. I planned to open more buy deals if the price broke the level of 1.3310. In this case, the stop level could be minimal while the growth potential was rather high.
    In my case I placed a take profit for buy deals at 1.3430 while the stop loss was set at 1.3200.
    But the level of 1.3230 was held. Numerous attempts to break it failed. Now the price is approaching the next level of 1.3310. The previous scenario of breaking this level and rising above it is valid.


  5. #94
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    I donít think the price will go down from 1.1750. If it does, the level of 1.1695 will be left behind. According to the M15 time frame, the price should go higher. Iíve got a plan to sell without a signal if the price reaches 1.1800, Iíll open a large sell deal there. There is a chance that the price will touch upper levels during the Asian trades. The higher the price will move, the better for sales. Usually, if there is a big movement in the Asian session, the European trades do not continue it. For now, everything points to the upside. The H4 time frame is full of expectations. Weíll see where the bearish activity will revive. As for the Japanese yenÖ no one knows what it wants. The yen shortly jumps in all directions but is not heading anywhere for sure.



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  7. #95
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    Iím taking a closer look at short selling USD/JPY. The situation is the following. The pair created a reversal Head-and-Shoulder pattern (the blue line). Its height is 147 pips. The neckline has been already broken. Indeed, the yen should have advanced against the US dollar a long time ago. Thatís why USD/JPY is set to decline.



    Earlier, I mentioned that the pair would fail to overcome the level of 111. All attempts of a further price growth had been rejected by sellers. After active selling, the price was pushed down to 109. Just a little to be done is left. The price should break out and hold below an intraday low of 109.25. This price action will confirm strong sellers in the market. The yen should give up losing in value. Indeed, it is too undervalued.




    Iíve already opened a long position on EUR/USD at the price which coincides with the pending short order. I expect a price growth to 1.1740. I plan to close my long order at that level. The important moment is just around the corner. There are 20+ pips to the take profit level. My bullish expectations for a price growth came true. I didnít waste my time, waiting for the sell level. At the level of 1.1740, I expect a temporary halt in the price growth. Besides, Iíve already set a pending order from that level. Iím selling from the price of 1.1739, bearing in mind a risk premium for a call option with a strike price of 1.1675. Stop loss and take profit are about 100 pips in both directions.



    The curious thing is that I deliberately highlighted only todayís session on the chart. Virtually, since the beginning of a trading day small speculators rushed to open sell positions and contracted long positions. What is the result of it? The euro has been developing a rally. Now I can judge how accurate traders analyze the current market situation and how efficiently classical technical analysis works out.


  8. #96
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    As for the euro, while it's above 1708, the pair will grow with the target of 1740-45. A breakout of the 17th figure down and then 1670 (to yesterday's spike on the Americans). In doesn't matter how to implement the script, going this way and that way is necessary. The only thing you need is either to wait for the arrival or to catch with pending orders.
    There are two nuances: firstly, 1740 is the upper border of the reversal zone and its breakout will mean another increase by 100 p.

    Secondly, after the breakout of the short-term resistance of bears in the form of MA 89, it is support for bulls and there was no test for it. Now it is at 1630 and it is preferable to go there if the growth targets have not been achieved yet.

    Therefore, I am waiting for the growth completion and test of the bottoms for strength, especially when this is a sure sign of the growth ending

  9. #97
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    Hi!

    Here I sum up the results of my trading.
    Earlier, I presented the following forecast:


    The price hit the high at 1.1671. It was enough for the limit sell order to be opened.
    Once again a test of the broken level at 1.1680 was successful. If I donít see any other tests of this range, then the initial rise that started in the European session will serve as an impulse.
    The target for closing my sell deals is located at 1.1600.
    I set the stop loss at 1.1725.


    As for now, we can see that the price confirmed my suggestions. Sell trades that were opened at 1.1670 were fixed with profits. Overall, I managed to make profit of about 70 points. The key levels were also confirmed.
    As for the current situation, I can say the following:
    The range of 1.1600 that played a role of support was breached.
    Weakness of sellers and strength of buyers confirm this fact. I think sell deals can be more profitable now.
    The key level at which I will open a sell deal is also located at 1.1600. If the price returns to this level, it will provide a great opportunity for opening a short deal with the target at 1.1500.


    On the pound sterling I set a stop loss at 1.3337 and take profit at 1.3115.



    My expectations were met. The level of 1.3115 was reached. At first, I decided to fix my sell trade opened at 1.3226, and only after that I closed my sell trade from 1.3115. Earlier, I expected the target at 1.3150 to be hit. I chose this level today as well. But sellers managed to push the price down to 1.3100.
    On both EUR and GBP charts buyers are strong. Under these conditions sell deals are safe. So, if the pound breaks the level of 1.3100 by 30 points at least, I will open new sell deals once the price pulls back.


  10. #98
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    Hi everyone! So Iíve received a report from InstaForex to my email. It turned out I had about 5,000 of profits before the today close. If I closed all my deals, I would have lost almost everythingÖ
    And now for changes in the market situation:
    Hereís my account balance:

    My floating profit makes up around 4,000 and it keeps changing. However, this was not thanks to my lot but to more successful entries than our bank had.
    For now, the deals are at Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.
    In future, I plan to shift to Morgan Stanley only. It has vast statistical data and nice final results.
    Now more details:
    AUD/USD

    On the Australian dollar, Iím still winning, though my entry was a bit late. Sometimes it is worth placing limit orders if the bank does so. The profit made up around 70 pips.
    GBP/JPY:

    On this pair, I was even more successful (my entry was 80 pips better) than the bank. My profits on the pound-yen pair were about 200 pips! A large decline is ahead.
    Actually, I think a couple of deals will close with losses due to correlation, butÖ.
    Besides, today the price was very close to the stop on the euro-pound and I dared to enter with a short stop to smooth the situation.
    Weíll see where the price will go. If everything is OK, maybe I even close the deals without expanding losses.

  11. #99
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    i have rehearsed a course of action for these days as easy as silk. the whole lot became as expected. anticipated range quantity, or greater surely, the expected intraday range, offers clearly exact hints. within the morning, the action plan was as follows: whilst the rate is again to the level of 1.2262, i'll open a buy with prevent and earnings orders of 100 factors. For increase, today I see the primary issue is overcoming the extent of 1.2314. If the rate is discarded in each possible way, then we will leave the position, or get a prevent loss, and then watch how they agree among themselves.

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  13. #100
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    Hello, everyone.
    The current market situation based on VD (Volume + Delta)
    The pound:
    Today, as for the instrument, I'm waiting for the north. Asians gave lows, and yet, our Asian friends are often cut off.
    I highlighted the areas of SR on the screen. From where, after reaching market conditions, it is possible to conduct intraday trading.
    I consider both shorts and longs.
    In the morning - long. And for this, market conditions are almost formed, as follows:

    As for the delta, there are limit purchases. Therefore, there is pressure from the buyer


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