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Thread: Market Vision of currency pairs
  1. #81
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    Hello, dear traders.
    I wish you were as lucky as the day started for me today. I opened the platform today and saw that my buy deal was closed profitably. My target was reached.
    Congratulations to everyone who also profited from purchases opened yesterday.
    The ones who did not join the growth yesterday can do it today. The upper boundary for the options trade volume was raised yesterday and now it is at 1.1850 for futures. Fifty pips may be gained as profits today.
    The lower boundary has remained at 1.1700.
    EUR/USD EUUM8 Expected Range

    Letís add this range to the forex market and here what we receive:
    The lower boundary (put level) 1.1700 - 0.0004 = 1.1696. Given bonuses (8 pips) for risk, the level is 1.1696 Ė 0.0008 = 1.1688. This level is the maximum possible downward risk.
    The call level, or resistance, is in the range of 1.1850 levels for futures. We should consider the forward point, which is mere 2 pips today, and we get the price 1.1850 - 0.0002 = 1.1848. The bonus for call options with the strike at 1.1850 is also 8 pips today.
    Thatís why the maximum risk for today is at 1.1848 + 0.0008 = 1.1856. It will be the maximum level for call options sellers. The higher price will result in losses for them.

    Small speculators are opening sales. Purchases are being closed, but the euro is actively sold from 1.1510 levels. Given the situation in the options market and the sentiment of small traders, there is an imbalance.
    Big players are buying the euro, small ones are selling. Where the euro will go is obvious.

    The first purchase was closed profitably yesterday. The second purchase is fixed today.
    I applied the options levels to the chart, getting ready for purchases.
    The best level for purchases is 1.1688, but the price will hardly correct to it.
    Thatís why Iíll open purchases from 1.1760 and lower.
    SL and TP are both 100 pips.
    The risk is 2% of the deposit.


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  3. #82
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    Hello, everyone
    Well, there is a saying: buy when the market is down and sell on growth.
    But when you hear from a neighbor that potatoes are getting cheaper in the market, or some other products. What will your friends do? Yes, they will start buying. Risky and greedy people will wait for the moment when it will be possible to buy cheaper. And there are two options: they will buy either at a lower price or at a higher price; due to demand, prices will rise. But if prices do not rise, it will simply be bought at a low price, and we will be out of product.
    Same with the market. There are market makers instead of wholesalers.
    On Thursday, they sold on the market:

    Both the market and our wholesalers allowed to lower prices. Consequently, there are several outcomes again:
    It is no secret that on news, the price is stopped only by limit orders. If the price was lowered, it means that MM was not going to buy market shorts out. If there is no purchases, therefore, you can not expect a trend change. But rather its continuation.

    Here is the latest COT report. As you can see, we have the main aces at correction from 1.1510 - have added longs. As for the euro, assets are leading. Therefore, if they buy the cheap euro, their targets are tops.

  4. #83
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    There was a very quiet trading day. As for the pound and euro, the price was traded in a narrow range. If the euro was able to strengthen by 30 points, following Monday's results, then the pound, on the contrary, dipped by the same 30 points. As for the euro, an important detail should be noted. False breakout of 1.1560 was also successfully tested. From it, the trend began its strengthening. In this regard, now there is an important range with the borders at 1.1630 and 1.1560. The range could not be broken. Most likely, today we will go beyond this range. That particular output will indicate a further trend for the euro. So far, I have a sale that is in a slight debt. As soon as there is a breakout and consolidation above 1.1630, I will close the sale and open a purchase. As long as the price is within this range, there will be no new signals for trading. The main target for growth is 1.1730.

    As for the pound, the situation is more clear for me now. I've made a sale at 1.3262, and still keep it. In contrast to the euro, the upper range is kept better than the euro. Growth of the rate to 1.3300 has not been made. The reduction of the rate with a breakout of 1.3200 also has been failed. It turns out that we have a range from 1.3300 to 1.3200. If you trade within this range, then only as in the flat. Personally, I will be waiting for a breakout and price consolidation, beyond this range. Now I have one sale. The level of take profit is set at 1.1512. The level of stop loss is set at 1.1654.


  5. #84
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    Am I right that Mario Draghi gave a speech on Tuesday? I opened a nice bearish position in the market, waiting for Draghiís speech. However, his remarks were of no importance to the market. It seems as if it was me who gave a speech but not the ECB president. Volatility is zero. If the economic calendar did not contain Draghiís speech, I would think that today is a holiday, so the market has come to a standstill. Letís leave aside the euro because an interesting situation is unfolding with the pound sterling. GBP/USD is now trading in a range of around 1.3250. This is exactly the level of the put option at the forex price. Amid a trade volume, I have 1.3250. The maximum trade volume of call option is at 1.3550. Considering a forward point, I have 1.3200 where the most probable scenario is capped growth, i.e. resistance.



    The risk premium today is the following. For put options with a strike price of 1.3200, the sell premium is 45 pips. For call options with a strike price of 1.3500, the premium is about 36 pips. If we apply these figures to Forex, weíve got the critical level for a decline at 1.3208, the critical level for growth is 1.3526.



    What is my further strategy? As the price is exactly at the put level, Iím going to open a buy position from this level. Take profit and stop loss is 100 pips each in any case. If profit is fixed at 1.3342 and the price moves downward, we could buy again with a target level closer to the call level. In case of emergency when the price declines rapidly, Iíll close my buy order at 1.3145.



    Remarkably, some analysts still speculate about Brexit and say this is the reason why the pound could lose in value even more. Hey guys! Please be serious. Brexit is no more a time-sensitive topic. The market had been on verge of a slump before the Brexit referen dum. It looks like the UK is still shocked due to its looming exit from the EU. No one wants to invest in the pound sterling.


  6. #85
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    Hi, everyone!

    Yesterday the euro rebounded from the balance line at 1560 and today the bias is bullish. Though the balance decreased slightly to the area below 1551, the mandatory zone serves as the support level and the short-term target at 1626 indicates the upward trend. Buy deals are reasonable while the price is below the upper boundary of the intraday channel at 1685.
    My technical indicators show that the dayís peak lies at the top of the 16th figure. Itís important for us to break the resistance at 1640. The support is found at 1610 from where I plan to open sell trades.


  7. #86
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    The US dollar is the main currency on Forex. Since it is traded on the stock exchange, its quotes depend on the supply-demand ratio.
    The Fed has finally raised the interest rate, and now we see the results of this measure. The fundamental factors will influence the greenbackís movements during a month at least. The bearish bias is prevailing.
    Frankly speaking, I donít care what will happen with the dollar. I only want to know how much I can earn on its rises or falls.
    As for the euro, the market has been trading downwards since last Thursday. When will the trend terminate? I think nobody knows it for sure. I can only suggest that the trend is more likely to continue rather than reverse in the nearest future.
    Now, let us take a closer look at the chart provided by ClusterData:




    The picture is not favorable for long trades. On Thursday the southward movement was triggered. The bottom prices are 1.1543 - 1.1573 which coincide with the levels f 1.1630-1.1677 on Globex. This is the range for buy orders. Besides, we can see a cluster on the chart that was tested, and prices showed a counter-trend reaction. But the rebound was short-lived. Moreover, yesterday sell deals were closed by stop orders. And again there was weak activity of buyers. Bulls are put under pressure.
    Itís the middle of the week, the peak of trading.

    Trading idea:


    Iíve highlighted the supply zones, from which the price rebounded. From the last zone the price fell during the Asian session. Consequently, I will open a short trade at 1.1587 with targets at 1.1530-1.1500. The stop is placed at 1.1648, but risky guys can set it at 1.1596.
    I donít have an alternative scenario as Iím not going to buy.

  8. #87
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    Hello, dear traders.

    One of the forum participants, Yurisss, wrote that when the market is flat, small movements can make the key levels weaker. Therefore, as he thinks, it is possible to break these levels even if your trading volumes are not big. I agree with Yurisss. Indeed, I think that key levels can be broken by zig zag movements.

    By the end of of yesterdayís trades, the euro did not breach any key levels. There was only a false break of the local level at 1.1590. After that the price started to decline.
    A break of 1.1590 and reaching 1.1600 met my expectations.

    Besides, a rebound from 1.1600 reinforced the significance of the sloping line from which two pullbacks have already occured.

    My sell deal from June, 15 is still open. The trading range is so narrow that even now the price is trading near the opening level.
    If the price breaks and holds above the sloping line, it will be a signal to buy and close my current sell deal.
    The level for fixing profits is found below 1.1530.



    On the pound sterling the situation is better than on the euro.
    My earlier suggestion of selling at 1.3215 confirmed.

    As soon as the price reached this level, I decided to open a sell deal. The opening price was 1.3207.
    However, my expectation of breaking the level of 1.3145 were not met. The price rebounded and reached a higher level a few pips before a stop loss order.
    Nevertheless, I expect a break of 1.3145 and continuation of the downward trend. Specifically after the break I see the desired level for fixing profits.
    In the worst-case scenario, I will close my deal at a breakeven point if the price rebounds.
    In the best-case scenario, I will open another sell trade after the price holds below 1.3145.


  9. #88
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    If the price grows, breaking through 1.1600, bounces 20-30 pips, and retraces to the broken level, Iím going to open a long deal. The main level for profit taking is around 1.1730. This is a level which was breached on June 14 and hasnít been tested yet. So, the alternative scenario for the euro has come true today. The euro was on verge of selling below 1.1530. The price has broken up by 20 pips. This is a minimum price move to identify a breakout and further consolidation. I saw such attempts on shorter time frames. It happened right before the news from Switzerland on interest rates. I didnít feel like opening a new order before the news. I decided to be an impartial observer. What happened later confirmed that I was right. Long positions from 1.1600 logically became unwanted. In the US session, traders managed to breach even 1.1600 and now I see attempts to secure the price. Iíve just decided to buy with stop loss at 1.1496 and take profit at 1.1727. Following my trading system, this is the best idea for today.



    As for the pound sterling, I wrote the following. To confirm a further decline, the price has to hold steadily below this level but not just break out. At the moment, the price has broken out by only 20 pips. This decline is too small to speak about a clear signal. Thus, Iím going to take decisions based on real facts.

    I missed a good sell position after a retracement to the breached level of 1.3150. However, I hesitated to enter the market during the news on the pound sterling. As a result, weíve got a sharp bullish bar. The decision not to open a buy position proved right later. AT the moment, the local level of 1.3215 has been breached. I expect a correctional move from the current level of 1.3215 and then Iím going to buy the pair. Iíve already placed a limit order. The upward target is set at 1.3450. In case no retracement occurs for some reason, I want to buy during a breach of 1.3270. I also donít forget about a stop order for the buy deal.


  10. #89
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    Hello, everyone. I wish you all a good trading day. I agree that the sale is possible only below 1580, but the target is the bottom of the daily option channel and this is 1550. I do not know whether it is worth bothering with it, but the purchase from 1587 is much more interesting, besides, it is the bottom of the mandatory zone. Therefore, if the balance of the day at 1608 is pushed, another 20 pips are needed to retest the trading zone and then going up. Today, it is at 1671, the main thing is to consolidate above 1626



    ---------- Post added at 01:43 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:35 PM ----------

    Finally, that was a relieving day.
    I fixed a pyramid of sales for the franc and a pyramid of buying on the GBP/CHF pair.
    As for the yen, I kept the sales. There are too many signals for sale from banks.
    Then, I expect a breakout of 109.50 and a continuation of further decline.

    The euro against the dollar.
    As for the euro, I am gradually taking a long position.
    The same Citibank opened a purchase from the level of 1.1640.
    It took some time for the price to start working out, but it managed to go even lower.
    I was able to open two more refills for the purchase. Now I have 3 positions in the direction of growth. The overall result is positive so far.
    Their target is at 1.2000, so if you want, you can join.

    CAD/JPY.
    It turns out a prospective sale for this cross rate. In addition to the main sale from 85.08, there are already two refills. They opened them on a pullback. Under the new system, it was possible to set a stop sale grid with a step of 50 points, and all these sales would have been in operation.
    Now, there is an opportunity to open another sale. The target for all positions will be at 81.00.


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  12. #90
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    Hello, everyone
    The new trading week has started, so I wish everyone successful and productive trading.
    So, here's a trading plan for the euro for today.
    Last week, the level of 1.1510 was broken by false breakout. Almost immediately after the breakout, the price reaction turned out to be positive and the rate began to grow rapidly.
    I suppose that the new working week will begin with the continuation of growth. In addition, there may be a test of the 1.1600 level. If the level manages to resist this time, then a buy signal will be relevant and therefore, it is better to expect growth.
    The main level where it will be possible to fix profit for a purchase is the nearest broken range of 1.1840.
    In this case, stop loss will be at 1.1500.

    If, when the price falls to the level of 1.1520, there will be its breakout, then I will be waiting for a consolidation below. If the consolidation is confirmed, this will be a signal for sale.
    In the case of the rapid response to the breakout, it will be possible not only in time and profitable to roll over the position, but also to close the loss on the purchase with the least amount of deficit.
    The target for a decline is in the range of 1.1320.
    Such variants of stop loss are possible, but they require high skill of trading and extended control of the market situation.
    As for me, pending orders are better.

    The main advantage is more free time. Setting a limit order gives time for breaks and an opportunity to relax and gather your thoughts. Also, they save from sharp price hikes, which people are usually unable to react to.
    With these sharp hikes, trading decisions can change much and you have to trade manually.
    Such rapid trading decisions are often contradictory to those decisions that were made for the pending order and the result is not always positive.
    Money likes silence, not emotion, they are mainly lost on emotion.

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