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Thread: Daily Forex News
  1. #41
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    Overview of Gold: $1,300 Break Remains Indefinable Despites the Weak tone in US Dollar

    XAU traded a bit lower against USD and closed at 1288.78.

    • Gold picked up a bid on Monday, tracking the weak spot in the US dollar, but the bull momentum ran out of steam at $1,295.
    • The dollar index (DXY) fell to 2.5-month lows below the 100-day MA.
    • The yellow metal is still struggling to break past $1,300.
    • $1,276 is the level to beat for the bears.

    According to the Analysis, The XAU/USD.X pair is expected to find support at 1282.62, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1276.47. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1294.99, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1301.21. Previous Day range was 12.37 and Current Day Range is 7.69.

    The yellow metal failed to cross the psychological barrier of $1,300 on Friday and carved out a bearish-lower high of $1,288 yesterday, despite the drop in the US dollar - gold's biggest retribution.
    Notably, the dollar index found acceptance below the 100-day moving average (MA) yesterday and fell to 95.64 - a level last seen on Oct. 22.
    The greenback is indeed on the defensive, having closed below the 100-day MA for the first time since Sept. 27 amid dovish Fed expectations.
    The yellow metal is still struggling to pick up a strong bid. As of writing, it is reporting moderate losses at $1,286 per Oz. Gold's inability to capitalize on DXY's break below the 100-day MA likely indicates the bulls are facing exhaustion.

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    Overview of Crude Oil: WTI Continues to Climb on Trade Hopes

    US Oil – also known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Texas Sweet Light – is another type of ‘sweet light’ crude oil, that has a lower sulphur content and density than UK Oil. It is drilled in North America, primarily in Texas, Louisiana and North Dakota, and sent via pipeline to Cushing, Oklahoma for price settlement. As this is a landlocked area, most WTI oil is consumed in the US, making this the primary benchmark for the US market.

    According to the analysis, USOil.x pair is expected to find support at 48.95, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 47.89. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 50.60, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 51.89.

    USOil.x previous day range was 16500 and current day range is 9000.

    • US-China trade talks continue, and markets continue to bid up on hopes of progress.
    • Commodities are catching a relief run on hopes of improving trade, after a tense ending to 2018.

    Crude energies markets are continuing to spin higher as investors hope for peaceful trade talks to resolve between the US and China, which are at present underway at the vice-ministerial level, extending into a third day of talks with traders awaiting announcements following the trade meetings. Trade tensions between the US and China have spun out broader market sentiment in recent months, and investors are looking for any signs of a recovery in global trade in order to offset the increasing signs of economic slowdown across the planet for 2019.

    The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator is published weekly. It measures the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US companies. It is one of the indicators affecting world oil prices.

    Growing crude oil stocks indicate a weaker demand for oil and can have a negative impact on the oil barrel price.

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    Technical Overview of GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD Currency Pairs

    GBP USD


    The GBP traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.2746.

    The GBP/USD pair trades at the upper end of its weekly range as the dollar remains weak. Upside capped by Brexit uncertainty, looming Parliamentary discussions.

    Manufacturing Production m/m shows the change in the value of goods produced in the manufacturing sector of the UK industry in the given month compared to the previous month.

    Manufacturing (production of foods, pharmaceuticals, light industry, metal processing, etc.) accounts for about 80% of the overall UK industrial production. The indicator growth may have a positive effect on the pound quotes.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.27154, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.26853. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.27874, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.28293.

    Previous Day range was 72 and Current Day Range is 25.3.

    AUD USD


    The AUD traded lower against the USD and closed at 0.7185.
    AUD prints session highs above 0.72 following a better-than-expected Aussie retail sales release.
    The pair is struggling to find acceptance above 0.72 and could feel the pull of gravity during the day ahead as both the USD/CNH pair and gold are hinting at a recovery rally in the US dollar.
    Australia Retail Sales m/m show a change in the turnover of goods and services sold in retail outlets in the given month compared to the previous month.
    The turnover of goods and services sold in retail outlets include retail sales, wholesales, takings from repairs, sales in public places, commission from agency activity, as well as the goods and services tax.
    The indicator growth can have a positive effect on the Australian dollar quotes.
    The pair is expected to find support at 0.71548, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.71248. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.72059, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.72270.

    AUD USD previous Day range was 51.1 and Current Day Range is 31.6.

    NZD USD


    The NZD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6779.

    The NZD/USD pair is probing the trendline falling from December highs for the third day straight. As of writing, the trendline resistance is located at 0.6786. Interestingly, the 100-period moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart is also located at that level.

    Building Consents m/m reflect summary data on permits for the construction of residential and non-residential buildings priced at 5000$ and higher, granted by New Zealand consent authorities. The indicator is calculated as a change in the reported month compared to the previous one. The calculation accounts for taxes on goods and services, however it is not adjusted for inflation.

    Data on construction approvals are considered as an indicator of confidence in the domestic economy, therefore construction consents are also considered as a leading indicator of the construction sector activity.

    According to the analysis, NZD/USD pair is expected to find support at 0.67684, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.67581. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.67915, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.68043.

    NZD/USD previous day range was 23.1 and current day range is 42.5.

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    Technical Overview of Bitcoin by XtreamForex

    BTC traded a bit lower against USD and closed at 3653.36.

    Bitcoin breaks key levels again after breaching $4k.
    Long term bottom is not in place yet.

    According to the Analysis, The BTC/USD pair is expected to find support at 3589.71, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 3526.05. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 3708.30, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 3763.23. Previous Day range was 118.59 and Current Day Range is 37.66.

    Bitcoin, the king of Cryptocurrencies, has broken down of some key levels after breaking below $4,000 and is now at the risk of breaching $3,000 too as long term bottom is not yet in place for the largest crypto.
    BTC/USD trading flat on day at $3,633 and in less than one percent range for the day - typical low volume and even lower volatility weekend trading that is. Earlier this week, Bitcoin and all the other major coins saw massive sell-off all over again, resulting in BTC breaking $4,000 again and as a result also broke some key levels on the short term (180-minute) as well as long term (daily) chart.

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    Technical Overview of EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD Currency Pairs

    EUR USD


    The EUR traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.1468.

    EUR/USD slipped back below the pivot at 1.1468 on Friday, falling from a high of 1.1540 to a low of 1.1451, consolidating between there and 1.1480 in a sideways drift in the main.

    ECB President Speech reflects the official position of the European Central Bank, therefore every speech is carefully examined by the market participants and analysts. If the ECB President's speech suggests any conclusions on the monetary policy or a clear assessment of the economic and financial situation of the euro zone, the speech influences the EU currency.

    If the speech suggests the tightening of the monetary policy, it is seen as positive for the euro.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.14519, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.14360. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14825, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14972.

    Previous Day range was 30.6 and Current Day Range is 24.4.

    AUD USD


    The AUD traded higher against the USD and closed at 0.7194.
    The AUD/USD bounce gained further traction last hour, with the bulls testing highs into the 0.7220 level following fresh monetary and fiscal stimulus measures announced by China. The spot is on its way to test the monthly tops at 0.7236.
    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Member Speech may contain indications on the possible future changes in the Fed's monetary policy. Committee members participate in interest rate voting, determine appropriate monetary policy measures and assess the risks to long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.
    The pair is expected to find support at 0.71737, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.71537. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.72158, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.72379.

    AUD USD previous Day range was 42.1 and Current Day Range is 31.5.

    NZD USD


    The NZD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6821.

    Electronic Card Retail Sales m/m reflect a percentage change in electronic card transactions over the reported month compared to the previous one. The indicator can be used in the estimation of consumer spendings and economic activity.

    The indicator values are seasonally adjusted and can be revised on a monthly basis, while monthly movements can fluctuate.

    According to the analysis, NZD/USD pair is expected to find support at 0.68006, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.67803. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.68367, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.68525.

    NZD/USD previous day range was 36.1 and current day range is 34.2.

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    Technical Overview of GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF Currency Pairs

    GBP USD


    The GBP traded lower against the USD and closed at 1.2858.

    The GBP/USD pair is struggling to cross the 9-month-long falling trendline for the third day straight, having charted a big doji candle at that diagonal line yesterday.

    Bank of England Governor Speech is given by the head of the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee and has the greatest influence over sterling's value among all members of the Committee. The BoE Governor's public engagements suggest clues regarding the change in the exchange rate and future monetary policy of the Bank of England.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.27176, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.25770. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.29563, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.30544.

    Previous Day range was 238.7 and Current Day Range is 47.1.

    USD JPY


    The USD traded lower against the JPY and closed at 108.631.
    USD/JPY is on the retreat, having faced multiple rejections near 108.75 in the last 24 hours.
    Risk-reset is likely on shaky grounds. China stimulus pledge could be overshadowed by the global growth slowdown.
    BOJ Governor Speech is an event having the greatest impact on JPY among all public statements made by the Japanese regulator. The Governor's rhetoric reflects the official position of the Bank of Japan.

    If some hints at tightening the monetary policy by the Bank of Japan are detected in the Governor speech, it may affect JPY positively.

    The pair is expected to find support at 108.253, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.875. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.884, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.137.

    USD JPY previous Day range was 6310 and Current Day Range is 3350.


    USD CHF


    The USD traded higher against CHF and closed at 0.9876.

    With major European currencies remaining under strong selling pressure on Tuesday, the greenback attracted investors' attention and the US Dollar Index recovered all of the losses it recorded last week and broke above 96 to refresh its highest level since January 4 at 96.23.

    Retail Sales m/m reflect a change in the US retail sails in the reported month compared to the previous one. The indicator is calculated based on statistics received from 5,000 retail stores of different types and sizes, and the data are then extrapolated to the whole country.

    The indicator is used for estimating inflation. Its growth may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

    According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.98208, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.97656. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.99124, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.99488.

    USD/CHF previous day range was 91.6 and current day range is 8.1.

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    Technical Overview of EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD Currency Pairs

    EUR USD


    The EUR traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.1388.

    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Member Speech may contain indications on the possible future changes in the Fed's monetary policy. Committee members participate in interest rate voting, determine appropriate monetary policy measures and assess the risks to long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.13708, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.13535. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14055, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14229.

    Previous Day range was 34.7 and Current Day Range is 13.9.

    GBP USD


    The GBP traded lower against the USD and closed at 1.2983.

    Retail Sales m/m show the changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK for the given month compared to the previous one. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers.
    The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting and in the development of the UK financial and economic policy. The retail sales growth can affect the British pound quotes positively.

    The pair is expected to find support at 1.28772, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.27714. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.30437, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.31044.

    GBP USD previous Day range was 166.5 and Current Day Range is 25.6.


    NZD USD


    The NZD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6761.

    BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) is compiled based on a monthly survey. It serves as a leading indicator of New Zealand's manufacturing sector activity.

    According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.67303, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.66995. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.67892, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.98173.

    NZD USD previous day range was 58.9 and current day range is 22.4.

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