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Thread: EUR/USD pair discussion
  1. #4501
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    Many traders write about the presence of a triangle, it means that it has really formed.
    I also wrote about its presence on the H4 chart. The price way out beyond this triangle will be the main signal for price movement.
    The breakout of the triangle's borders most often happens in the form of an impulse, so we should expect a strong price gap at the opening of a new trading week.
    Today, my priority is to buy.
    In order to create conditions for purchases in the current situation, a false breakout of the 1.1300 level is needed.
    After the price consolidation above 1.1300, the conditions for opening a purchase will be created.
    The main level for fixing profit will be in the price range of 1.1350, because this level will be the nearest resistance.
    Stop loss order should be better set below the level of a false breakout.
    If there is no false breakout, buyers will be able to raise the rate above 1.1350. This will be a signal that growth will continue and the best option is to buy.
    The condition for purchases will be the price consolidation above the level of 1.1350.
    In this case, the nearest resistance will be at 1.1400, therefore take profit order should be placed in this range.
    At a loss, the purchase should be closed after the breakout of the 1.1300 level.

    At the moment, the market has already opened, and the price gap in the direction of growth has been formed. The price has reached the resistance level of 1.1350. There is a test at this level, so I opened a sale.
    I set a take profit order for this sale in the range of 1.1300.
    If the price makes a strong boost in the direction of growth, with the breakout of 1.1400, the stop loss order, which I have set for this purchase, will go off.
    An additional condition for a way out of the sale will be a downward correction after the breakout. This will close the sale with a minimum loss.
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    The level for a take profit order will be at the nearest resistance range of 1.1350.
    The formation of the false breakout of 1.1300 will also be a signal for purchases. The price consolidation above 1.1300 after the breakout will be a condition for purchases.
    The level for a take profit order will be at the same resistance level of 1.1350.
    Stop loss order should be better placed below a false breakout or after the breakout of 1.1270.

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  4. #4502
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    Let's consider the current market situation:
    At the opening of the market, there was a northern gap. This is a good signal that growth can continue.
    Growth is well-founded, and we can still do an optional analysis.
    According to the weekly contract, on Friday, there was a large trading volume at 1.1350 at futures prices, and 1.1335 at forex prices.
    The price managed to drop a little below this level, but there was no way out of the risk premium.
    Now this level will act as key support.
    Based on the put volume on this level, we can conclude that they will stand for this level and hold the line to the last.
    Now this assumption is fully confirmed, as growth of 60 points, from the beginning of the trading days.

    Top 10 levels in terms of open interest.
    Now let's consider top ten levels with the highest trading activity.
    The most active call level is at 1.1650 and 1.1500. Since the first one is still far from the current prices, we can take the level of 1.1500 as the nearest strong resistance.
    Key put levels are at 1.1350 and 1.1300, which once again confirms that we can buy from this range.

    Trading plan:
    I still have three open purchases in operation. The last upward momentum almost brought these purchases to zero.
    In case sellers want to test the 13th level, I have set another limit purchase.
    If the level is reached, the growth is expected to be strong.
    Today's gap has not been closed yet, and this may also indicate that a decline is unlikely.
    Traders may try to sell at the closing of the gap that will only stimulate further growth.
    As for the upper limit, I can say that the optimal level is 1.1500, but first, we need to wait for the level of 1.1400, from which a lot of traders may open sales.


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  6. #4503
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    On Monday, the price completely canceled the level of 1.1350 as meaningful. After the opening of the session, the price reaction to this level was positive. From this level, I opened a sale. Initially, the sell signal worked out, but towards the European session, the level of 1.1350 was broken. This was a condition for transferring the take profit order to the level of the sale opening.
    The price managed to come back to 1.1350, so the sale was closed. At the same time, there was the price consolidation above this level, which created conditions for purchases.
    After the opening of purchases, the price broke through the level of 1.1350 again. After the breakout, the price reduction created the conditions for transferring the take profit order to the range of the position opening.
    The price successfully returned to the entry level, so the purchase was also closed.
    Such market conditions shifted the horizontal levels of resistance and support.
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    In addition, the borders of the triangle developed on the M30 chart. In view of the fact that the triangle is narrowing, the breakout of this range will be impulse. I will not enter into the breakout, I’d rather wait for its test and only then I will open a position.
    To open a buy deal, we need the price increase with the breakout of 1.1380, then after a successful test of the triangle's upper border, I will open a purchase.
    To open sell deals, we need a downward exit of the price with the breakdown of the 1.1300 level. Then after the corrective movement, we can open a sale.
    The triangle's base is about 120 points, so the momentum can also be 120 points.

    Yesterday, there was a small volume at the level of 1.1350, to which the price managed to fall. The test of the level was positive and then the price began to rise from it.
    The next level with a small volume is at the level of 1.1380.
    This level will also be the nearest resistance level, from which the price correction is expected.


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  8. #4504
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    Yesterday, there was a parody of trading.
    The price was not shifted even by a point. The market opened at 1.1351 and closed at the same mark.
    There were 30 points back and forth, and the trading day closed in nobody's favour.
    It is a good thing that the trading amplitude turned out to be about 60 points, but this did not affect my trading result. The final target were not achieved, so I look forward to further development of the situation.
    In addition to the fact that at the end of the day, the price almost remained unchanged, the trading range for option levels also did not changed.

    It is also a good thing that the trade volume differs from the previous range.
    The most interesting thing for me is that from this trading range, there is a persistent turnover of put options at 1.1300.
    Yesterday, there were 30 points left to reach that level, so the option with a decrease is postponed to today.
    The limit purchase has waited long enough for the price at this level. If I start with growth from the current ones today, I will remove the limit order.
    The upper range at 1.1400 at futures prices for opening an intraday sale was not achieved.
    Since the levels have not been worked out, we will try to do it today.


    Open interest:
    The situation with a short contract contributes to the further growth of the euro. There is the largest number of put options at 1.1350 at futures prices, which does not allow the price to collapse. In fact, yesterday's trading day was fully confirmed.
    Even if they try to descend to 1.1300, the risk premium at the strike of 1.1350 will allow such a maneuver to be made.
    The maximum accumulation of call options is at 1.1450. This will be the upper range, at least until Wednesday.
    Just in this range, I have got take orders for open purchases.
    The range is not great, only 100 points, but this is quite enough to earn 100 points from each open transaction.
    By the way, there is the Max Pain level at 1.1350, where the profitability from options is minimal, so we should not work at this level for a long time.



    As for the trading actions, there were no such conditions to close purchases either with a profit, or at a loss. Besides, the pending order was not achieved.
    I only changed the levels for take profit orders. Whereas previously they all were at the same level of 1.1480, the targets are now 100 points above the entry points. In addition, I removed the differences between take and stop orders to 100 points, according to the strategy.
    Given the fact that stop orders are outside the risk premium, and profit orders are within the premium, these are good conditions for transactions.


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  10. #4505
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    The range of 1.1395, which was allocated earlier, really turned out to be an important level at which sales were opened. Buyers managed to make the price increase again, but this growth did not bring any support. The impulse growth was replaced by a strong fall in the price.
    Additional conditions for sales were also confirmed.

    After the initial price increase, the price began to fully work out the downward impulses that occurred in advance.
    The price reduction broke through the level of 1.1380, but there was no test of the level, so there was no entry according to the basic conditions of the trading system. The sale was opened on the basis of additional conditions and the target for this sale was insignificant.
    If we consider sales, the first signal for this will be a breakout of the 1.1320 level.
    Price consolidation below this level will be a condition for opening a position.
    The nearest resistance level is in the range of 1.1270, so a take profit order should be better placed here.
    Stop loss order should be placed after the breakout of the 1.1380 level. This level will be the nearest resistance.

    Now, it is better for us to consider purchases. The first signal of possible growth is a failed attempt to break through the level of 1.1320. The presence of two candles with great shadows indicates the weakness of sellers. Besides, this level is a test of the broken triangle, to which I have referred earlier.
    Due to the creation of such conditions, I opened the purchase. The nearest resistance level is at 1.1380, so I am going to close the position with a profit at this level.
    If you want to close the purchase using a stop loss order, it should be done after the breakout of the 1.1270 level, which is the next support.
    If buyers manage to break through the level of 1.1380, this will be another signal for growth. The condition for entering will be the price consolidation above it.
    Take profit order for this purchase should be placed at the level of 1.1420.

    The market profile indicates that at the level of 1.1395, there is still a significant range of sales.
    Above this level, there is the level with a small volume; the price will try to test this level.
    In addition, on the way to growth to 1.1415, there is another level with a small volume that the price can test in the very near future.


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  12. #4506
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    Good night, everyone!
    As one fellow trader noted, yesterday’s key level was 1.1350.
    There was a guess in the morning that the price would easily reach the 13th level especially after the breakdown of the14th level. The price really dropped by quite a lot of pips but didn’t manage to touch the target of 1.1300.
    The market situation indicated the reason for a slowdown in a pace of price decline. All options with different expiration dates found support and stopped at 1.1350.
    I agree that there would be a greater put volume at 1.1250 but it doesn’t make all the previous levels not significant. If there was no considerable volume at 1.1350 and 1.1300, it would be logical to keep euros, yet, the market suggested otherwise.
    I’d say the best situation we could find on a daily range for a weekly contract.
    The 1.1350 level is an obvious support favorite there and the resistance is seen at 1.1550.


    Open interest:
    Finally, the update on the open interest is out. Apparently, noticeable put volume was added at 1.1250. This addition could allow the price to go down to that level, although such a deep lowering didn’t happen.
    The largest call volume was added at 1.1500. However, yesterday this level was not reached anyways.
    The hedging was done far from actual prices, probably, due to fears of increased volatility amid the G20 summit.


    Trading plan:
    1. I had to close 2 of yesterday’s sale deals at 1.1340 urgently. The initial targets were lower, but situation had changed during the day, so I had to act accordingly. Otherwise, I would still hold sales.
    2. I entered market to buy at 1.1340. The first trade came out at 1.1341, and the second one was a bit delayed. I could buy for 1.1316 but I noticed it too late. So, I put stop order and limit within the current price avoiding profit loss. I’m going to keep that buy trade which will be opened first, and the other one is to be removed.
    3. I set goals for 100 pips from the opening level. Deals’ risk is 3% of the initial deposit.

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    I wish the price to grow for all the buyers and to decline for all the sellers. Have a good time!

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  14. #4507
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    The euro continues to heat up the situation.
    I suspect that the next target will be the 12th figure.
    And maybe not straight, through a pullback, but still ... It is not too comfortable to buy with the targets above 1.1380, because the bears are pressing.
    Yesterday's price movement was quite obvious. The only thing I did not expect was sharp impulses.
    In the morning, the target above 1.1420 was worked out, and then there was a sharp collapse that closed the north on H1.
    Yes, the range of 1.3010-20 is not broken, but purchases are already questionable. Even if you want to buy, in this case, the target should be not higher than 1.1380.
    By the way, there is also the range of Monday's maximum liquidity here.
    Now this zone acts as resistance.
    As soon as we can go higher, we will continue to grow.
    I do not strongly believe in continuation of the north, but I do not exclude this option.


    Everything is about the 13th and 14th figures.
    We can not decide. This behavior can only indicates the accumulation of positions by a major player.
    Staying in the flat is the best way to drive impatient sellers and buyers into the market.
    In general, I don’t like the situation with the euro. I don't even want to trade.

    In short, the situation is as follows:
    1. The price will give a pullback towards the north in the area of 1.1380. Here, we can search for a point for sale.
    Without such a pullback, I will hardly open a sale. I will adapt the situation.
    2. Yesterday and today, there were buyers in the range 1.1320-30, but so far I do not see the continued north.
    It may well be that, reaching the level of 1.1418, they have just fixed their positions.
    3. The target of the decline is 1.1270-80. Here, the bulls will maintain the price. But it does not mean that they will be able to do this.

    The delta chart shows that the market is dominated the buyers. But the price is not allowed to increase much.
    In my opinion, major tragers do not want to drive up the price so high.


    As for the option levels, the situation is as follows:
    - the call level is at the price of 1.1380;
    - the put levels at prices of 1.1330 and 1.1280 (I highlighted two of them).

    At these levels, the price will receive support or resistance.
    So, at about 1.1380, we can open sales with the targets of 1.1330 and 1.1280.

    As for the north, we need to go through two levels and consolidate higher:
    - the first obstacle is at 1.1380;
    - the second obstacle is at 1.1420.
    After overcoming these obstacles, we can safely open long positions.



    So, I wish everyone successful trading!

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  16. #4508
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    Hello, dear traders.
    Today, I expect the northern trend, but I have not only a northern pullback, but a northern movement.
    The targets for this growth are higher than 1.1380.
    At 1.1350, there was a maximum turnover of put options yesterday, and for all option contracts (weekly, monthly, and half-weekly).
    At 1.1270-80, the bulls have long supported the price, at least since 28 November. If there is a decline to this level today, it will be a blow for buyers.
    I have got support in the current price range. The put level is at about 1.1350 at futures prices. It is about 1.1340 at forex prices. Given the risk premium, we get a critical mark for a decline at 1.1305. Any way out of the price below 1.1305 may create a backlash, as it happened to the call level yesterday.
    As for the option call level for today, it is at 1.1500. In the forex market, this is the area of 1.1490. The premium is not significant there, so growth is unlikely.

    Changes in open interest:
    The monthly contract, the expiration of which will be held in two days, deserves particular attention. In addition, there were the most significant changes in the monthly contract.
    According to these changes, the most important thing we can point out is a significant outflow of put options from distant strikes at 1.1250 and 1.1300.
    What is interesting about these levels? If we look at the Expected Range, there was the maximum turnover at these levels yesterday. On the one hand, this is the level from which we can buy. On the other hand, the outflow of put options indicates that these levels may not be reached, as interest in them decreases.
    As for the call options, there are no significant changes.

    Trading plan:
    Yesterday, the first purchase at the price of 1.1341 was opened. Stop and profit orders are 100 points from the opening price.
    Today, I have opened another purchase at the price of 1.1328. Stop and profit orders are also 100 points from the entry.
    The risk in transactions is 3%.
    The best thing about this situation is that take orders are below the resistance level, while stop orders are well below the critical level for reduction.


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  18. #4509
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    I’ve noticed a rather interesting situation at 1.1345.
    Let me provide more details. During the European session this level was broken by a bullish impulse. It was the first signal for a further rise.
    After that, the price tested this level and settled above it. This conditions were formed on the M5 time frame.
    I could open a buy deal under these conditions but I missed this opportunity.
    Even if I were at my desk at that moment, I would not open a buy deal as I already had a buy trade in this range.
    The nearest resistance level lies near 1.1380 so I will close my buy deal in this range.
    I set the stop loss for my buy deal below the level of 1.1270 that is the nearest support level.
    If buyers manage to break the level of 1.1380, it will be another signal to buy. The main condition for opening a buy deal is if the price holds above the level of 1.1380.
    The take profit can be set at 1.1420. The stop order should be placed after breaking the level of 1.1320.
    At this level the bullish divergence has been formed that is a sign a continuation of the bullish trend.



    Conditions for selling:
    A false break of 1.1360 will be the first signal of continuation of the bearish trend.
    This level was formed today.
    If the price settles below the level of a false break, it will be a signal to sell.
    The nearest support will be found at 1.1320, so you’d better set a take profit at this level.
    A break of the 1.1320 level will be the next signal to sell.
    If the price holds below this level, it will be a condition for opening a deal.
    The nearest resistance level is found at 1.1270, so the take profit should be set in this range.
    The stop loss is better to be placed after the price breaks the level of 1.1360 which is the nearest resistance level.



    The market profile shows that small volume is located near 1.1345. The price has already tested this level, so it can be an additional signal for a rise.
    The biggest volume was seen at 1.1365 that serves as the resistance.
    Besides, the delta of the market shows a big number of buy deals were opened.
    It is also a signal for continuation of the upward trend.


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  20. Fb
  21. #4510
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    The euro is taking sure steps ... but in the same place.

    Hello, everyone.
    There is some sort of mix-up in the market. There is no one direction of the pair. It is just going up and down.
    Yesterday, there was reduced volatility in the market due to the Americans. And the Europeans cannot move the market themselves, so they spent the whole day in the range of 50 points.
    Is there something interesting for us today? Maybe.


    Today, I am going to work off the intended target in the range of 1.1380-1.1400. This is the right place for fixing purchases and a possible search for sales, but only after a signal that the growth is completed.
    Today, I will not place pending orders, I will try to monitor the situation and enter manually.

    There is an option with a false breakout of the 1.1310 support level.
    Based on the data on options, this option is possible.
    Today, the optimal points for opening buy delas are the following levels:
    - 1.1340;
    - around 1.1310-1.1320.
    The targets for purchases are closer to the local high: 1.1390-1.1400.

    Cancellation of the north.
    After the price consolidation below 1.1310, I will consider sales, since after such a decrease, the intraday north will be canceled. And this means that we can consider sales with the targets in the area of 1.1270 and below.


    Option levels.

    Based on the data from the Chicago exchange, we can note the option levels of support and resistance.
    So, today, the main resistance of the price for further growth is the call level at the strike of 1.1400 + premium.
    At forex price, this range is from 1.1390 to 1.1410-20.


    This is the place where we can close purchases and wait for a point to sell.
    The following put levels act as support for the price:
    - 1st at the strike of 1.1350 (1.1340 at forex prices);
    - 2nd at the strike of 1.1300 (1.1290 at forex prices).

    Thus, we get the range for intraday trading: 1.1290-1.1340-1.1390-1.1400.

    Conclusion.
    So, I am planning to keep purchases in the area of the 14th figure. Then I will adapt the situation. As soon as there is a signal that the growth is completed, it will be possible to sell. The cancellation of the north within the day will be the price reduction below 1.1310. False breakout of this level is possible and is not considered to be a growth cancellation.
    So, I wish everyone profitable trading!

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