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Thread: EUR/USD pair discussion
  1. #4511
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    Hello, dear traders.
    Today, the main option is purchases from the level of 1.1340. It will be interesting if there is another false breakout of the false breakout.
    Even if we take the monthly option put level of 1.1350, the premium is 28 points. If you consider the level for Forex, we get 1.1312. (1.1350 - 0.0010 - 0.0028 = 1.1312). Yesterday's low was at 1.1310, that is, even according to the risk premium, there is no update of yesterday's low... But the Americans can change the situation. In this case, I have a pending order for the purchase.
    The upper limit is at 1.1400 at futures prices. This will be the nearest important level where the price will meet resistance.
    As for the weekly contract, I expect even 1.1550. So, we will be waiting for the 14th figure and then make a decision.

    Changes in open interest:
    There is a significant addition at 1.1400. But this is only to our advantage, since I expect growth, and the addition of call options at 1.1400 will be good for further growth.
    At 1.1350, another put options were added, thus strengthening the level of support again. This level is being tested for the fourth day in a row, but today, I expect the final race from 1.1312 to 1.1401.
    Furthermore, 1.1401 is the minimum for growth. At best, the local level of 1.1420 will be broken.

    Trading plan:
    Three purchases are already in the works. The range for purchases turned out to be from 1.1328 to 1.1341.
    Take profit orders are placed a little higher than 1.1401. If necessary, I will close at this level manually.
    Stop loss orders start from 1.1240 and below.
    There is an option with sales from 1.1400, but we need to see the willingness and desire of influential sellers to lower the price from this level.
    If there are large volumes, or there is a pin, it will be clear that the level is for sales.
    If this level acts as a pullback, there will be low activity there and we can expect an increase in the price.


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  4. #4512
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    The EUR / USD pair made fresh positive attempts but SMA 50 continues to form a strong resistance against the pair. The downside movement remains valid for the coming period, with stability below 1.1443 being the key requirement for continued bearishness targeting 1.1300 and 1.1181 as next major stops.

  5. #4513
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    My expectations have been realized. Now there is only one small concern regarding the direction.
    Until 1.1420 is not achieved, the south is still in force.
    Yesterday, the pair managed to give the necessary movement.
    I closed purchases, but did not sell.
    Still, I expect the continuation of the north until the news on non-farm payrolls is released.
    As soon as there is news, I will close my deals.
    I do not like being nervous, nerves, I'd better watch from the sidelines and get some rest.
    This week is not so active, as demonstrated by the balance sheet.
    The news on non-farm payrolls will be able to turn the price in any direction.
    In my experience, such news often determines the further direction of the whole movement for several weeks.
    This is not the only one, but it can set the course.

    What is the current situation?

    Now the pair is quietly going down for a pullback.
    I will try to buy in the area of 1.1350-1.1320. Or earlier, if there is an entry point.
    We should get here at the very beginning of Europe, and then go to work off the north at about 1.1450.
    But it is unlikely to achieve the 15th figure.
    There is the only hope for the news, after which we’ll finish off the top with an impulse.
    The level of 1.1450-60 is intermediate, but it can rebound the price well.


    There is still no certainty about the options.



    Most have already switched to the new monthly contract, and the current one is spending its last hours.
    Although if you take weekly options, we can dedicate the working area for intraday trading.
    The maximum volume of PUT options is at the strike of 1.1350. This level can act as support.
    The maximum volume of CALL options is at the strike of 1.1550. I doubt they will be able to get here.
    There is the Max pain level at the strike of 1.1500. I mentioned it before. I am sure they can reach here.

    This is the level where the price will strive before the expiration which is supposed to be today.


    An alternative may be the southern movement.
    In this case, I will skip it.

    Conditions for changing the trend:
    - the price consolidates below 1.1305;
    - there is volume; there are clearly expressed sellers
    - the targets for a decline are the level of 1.1270, and then 1.1220.


    This option may be realized next week after the release of positive data for the dollar.
    In general, today, I expect growth, movements due to the news, and then the south.

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  7. #4514
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    Congratulations to all buyers who managed to earn on the growth of the euro.
    The first signals of growth were yesterday, and the day before yesterday, when sellers failed to consolidate below 1.1320. False breakout of this range was a confirmation signal for further growth.
    Successful test of the broken range created the conditions for opening purchases.
    Yesterday, the level of 1.1380 where there were take profit orders for purchases, was successfully reached. Maximum for growth was at 1.1410. After reaching this level, there was a impulse correction to the broken level of 1.1360 level. The test of this level was successful, so after another achievement of this level, we can open a purchase.
    Take profit orders should be better placed in the area of the nearest resistance at 1.1410.
    If buyers manage to break through the level of 1.1410 and make a successful test of this level, this will be a condition for opening another purchase.
    Take profit order for this purchase can be placed in the range of 1.1470.
    If, after entering, the price is lowered to 1.1360, this will be a condition for closing the purchase with a stop loss order.

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    Conditions for sales:
    If we consider sales, the first signal will be a breakout of support at 1.1360.
    The price consolidation below this level will be the main condition for opening a sale.
    Take profit order for this sale should be set at 1.1320. This will be the closest support after the broken level of 1.1360.
    Stop loss order should be better placed after the breakout of the 1.1410 level, which is the nearest resistance at the moment.
    The formation of a breakout of 1.1320 will be another signal for a sale.
    If, after the breakout, the price consolidates below this level, then after a successful test of this level, we can open a sale.
    In this case, the nearest support will be at the level of 1.1270, so in this range, we should place a take profit order.
    Stop loss order should be placed after the breakout of 1.1360.

    Following yesterday's results, the minimum volume was at 1.1365. The price has already tested this level.
    The accumulation of the maximum volume was at the level of 1.1395. This level served as resistance.
    The test of this level gave the sellers a chance to lower the rate by 35 points.
    Now the price is testing this resistance level again.
    If there is a breakout of the 1.1365 level and the price consolidates below, it will be possible to sell.
    Growth with a breakout of resistance at 1.1395 will be a signal for continued growth.


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  9. #4515
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    Hello, dear traders. Today is Friday, which means that we need to sum up the trading week. It is very useful, because it is possible to do an analysis of trading and even improve your trading system.
    Yesterday, I expected the continued north, but the updated data showed that today, the northern movement is too risky.
    Let’s start with the changes in open interest.
    I looked at the monthly contract and realized that yesterday's sales range of 1.1390 was very good. Yesterday, 1,833 contracts were added at this level. Any attempts to get the 14th figure will come under resistance.
    The only bad part is that the lower border is at 1.1350. By the way, yesterday, there was an addition of put options at the level, thereby attracting the price to this level.
    According to yesterday's range, the margin for reduction is only 50 points.
    If we put a priority on open interest of the monthly option contract, a reduction can be made even to 1.1200.

    Yesterday's addition of a huge number of call options even changed the upper border of the monthly contract.
    Now the max call level is at 1.1400. This is despite the fact that there is an expiration today.
    If we take into account yesterday's daily range, in which the maximum call level is at 1.1400, and compare it with the open interest of the monthly contract, we will get a very strong level of 1.1400, from which it is possible to open short positions.
    There is the max put level at 1.1200, that is, there is nothing to do below this range. Somewhere in the middle of the range (about 1.1300), there will be the best option for major traders.

    Trading situation:
    After fixing yesterday's purchases, I opened two sales from the level of 1.1400.
    The entry price for the first sale is 1.1395, and that for the second one is 1.1383.
    The stops and profits are 100 points from the entry point.
    On the one hand, the main lower range is above take profit orders, that is not very comfortable, but we can always move them higher, for example, to 1.1340.
    So far, I will not be in a hurry with fixing. Now I am waiting for the news on non-farm payrolls.
    If they take 1.1328, I will join them. If they don't, I will close the sales with a profit of 50 points.


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  11. #4516
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    The EUR / USD pair has been showing a weak trading since morning and maintaining stability below 1.1443 and therefore does not change our expectations for a bearish trend that depends on stability below the mentioned level, noting that our main targets start at 1.1300 and extend to 1.1171.

  12. #4517
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    Yesterday, I was a little tense about the euro.
    Honestly, I waited for the price to be at 1.1380, where the market opened, well, maybe a little lower.
    I placed a pending order for the purchase, then it worked out, but the pair moved even lower.
    Moreover, now it is trying to slip below 1.1360, and this is very bad for the north.
    There may be provocations, but if we do not go up from the current levels, this will indicate that the bears do not want to give up.

    Under the circumstances, I can't get a strong increase.
    The most it can be in the zone of yesterday's American session, where they began to push the price. That is, 50 points from the current levels, and then the south again.
    In general, according to the data that I use to forecast and search for entry points into the market, we should have already moved north.
    But the pair does not do this, which means that there are some preconditions for restructuring.
    Perhaps, the pair paints a southern scenario it intentionally.
    On the technical side, M15 has already got a sell signal.
    So far, it is weak, but it does exist.
    On the M30, the north will break below 1.1310-1.1300.
    I have a stop loss order below this zone.

    Now we have to hold off on the north. In any case, I will not consider it as the main direction.
    The pair may move up, but it is unlikely that we will go above 1.1400-1.1410 tomorrow.
    In this area, it will be possible to look for points for intraday sales with the target of about 1.1320.
    After all, this is where the Americans began to push the pair.

    The market situation according to the option analysis.
    Options also surprised me.
    They did not work out at all.

    Moreover, as for the weekly contract, the pair failed to reach the critical zone.
    According to statistics, the price reaches this zone in only five cases out of 100.
    There is something wrong with this decline. But what?
    We will figure it out tomorrow.

    Conclusion.
    On the technical side, we have a pullback to the north, after which we will work out the area of 1.1320.
    As for the options, I expect growth to 1.1450 and above.

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  14. #4518
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    The EURUSD seems to be targeting the 1.1500 level, which is the point of resistance for the pair if it breaks it will go long distances but it has to reach that point first the pair is climbing very weak and is now at the levels of 1.1391 and is likely to return to rise again to touch levels 1.1443 then descends from Again, this very weak bullishness puts the possibility that the pair will fail to break the resistance, which will push it to the downside, thus completing its long downtrend targeting the 1.1150 levels, but that will only happen after the pair breaks the support levels it faces. 1.1325 and 1.1270


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    The EUR / USD pair rebounded sharply after testing the 1.1400 level today, to reach our first target of 1.1300 now, waiting to break this level to confirm the rally towards 1.1181 which is our next major stop, to keep the bearish trend valid and effective during the coming sessions provided stability below 1.1453.

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  18. #4520
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    Yesterday, the pair worked out the south 100%.
    Earlier, I wrote that I expected a small pullback, after which I was going to sell.
    Nothing went wrong, except the deal that remained closed. There were onle 2 points left.
    I was not there at that time, and the limit order was not reached ...
    The main thing for today is not to break my own rules. In this case, a stop loss order can help.

    What trend of the pair do I expect today?
    The M15 and M30 time frames face the south. Н1 is in the flat. So, today, I consider the south.

    1. The main option is southern.

    Considering that since the beginning of the week, the pair has slipped well and the Americans are going against Europe towards the south, it means that we are going south too.
    It would be logical to sell today. There is only one nuance - the support area.
    Since last week, the range of buyers has been between the prices of 1.1320-1.1305.
    Here the price may be delayed and the growth may be resumed. But so far, there are no preconditions for the end of the downward wave, which means that we should sell.



    2. Option with a decline without a pullback and consolidation below the zone of buyers.
    In this case, in order to earn, we need to have time to sell. While the bears are pressing, we need to catch the end of the upward impulses and open short position. At the moment, there are more preconditions for the pair's decline within the day.
    In such a case, the targets for reduction are 1.1265, and then 1.1215.
    Moreover, if you look at the delta, it can be noted that there have been a lot of buyers in the market, but the Americans have absorbed them with an impulse.
    I suppose that tomorrow they will finish off, because there are stop loss orders below 1.1305.
    In addition to stop loss orders, there are buy limit orders placed below.



    3. Alternative with growth.
    In addition to the fact that I consider the option with the south, I do not exclude an option with the north within the day.
    I will hardly work to the top, but it is necessary to be prepared for anything. Especially when there is the flat on H1, and we are near the lower border. Isn't it a good reason to grow?
    But in order to go up, we need certain conditions. What are they?


    For growth, we need to overcome at least two zones in which we opened short positions yesterday:
    - the first zone is at the level of about 1.1360,
    - the second one is 1.1400.
    The target for growth is 1.1440.
    Once again, purchases are possible, but this is not the main option. Therefore, we should be very careful about long positions.
    That's it.
    I wish you all more profitable deals!

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