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Thread: EUR/USD pair discussion

  1. #4061
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    Ladies and gentlemen, I, as mistaken in the morning, will allow myself to take the floor again. So, if all this started baer, then we mean the fact that now we need to work at the levels of the past week. Yesterday was held on megadelt in the buy-in, these purchases are working. And today's bays are working. Yes, package sales have not gone anywhere, but I will repeat the thought that was voiced earlier: on Eurodollars, the trend for falling is almost always the positive total delta, and the trend for growth is negative; so it's worth looking for a delta on the trend; in the flat - the delta works from the levels.
    But it's half the battle. Now the turnover is ZASHKALIVAYUSHCHY . Yesterday was 295903 on D1, today - already 215 thousand, and Chicago only hour trades. The hourly distribution of turnover: 56 thousand, 51 thousand, 35 thousand and another 22 thousand for the current half an hour.
    Thus, yesterday + today are key sessions . If the market goes to storm 21 and above, then you can easily try to join. If the market decides to go back to the 19th zone and below, then we can say that the buyer still lacks the strength.
    Key levels on the forex market in 1990-2010 , this is where the bifurcation point will be. If America closes above 2050, then the message, I think, is clear. If by some miracle, based on package sales at the levels of last week, we leave again in the 19th figure, then the fence is better. Because there is a bottom, but there may not be an exit from it (I did not find it there this week ). Or the output is not too far.

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    Yesterday's plan for the growth of the euro in the previous consolidation zone and jump to 1.2080-1.2060 justified all expectations, but then buyers without any compromise and correction drove the price above the 1.21-th figure, and most likely the ultimate goal of the current unreasonable, but very powerful growth is located right in the area of ​​1.2140-1.2150, respectively, now the support level is 1.2100 and we will be oriented to it, namely, we will have to wait for the anchorage already under it and the fastening with good passing at least 1.2050. In principle, the trigger for the downward movement in the pair EUR / USD may well be today's publication of inflation data in the US, as well as the level of retail sales, which in principle should grow due to the holiday excitement of last month.


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    It seems to me, gentlemen, it was a comedy. Contrary to forecasts, inflation in the US rose to 0.3%, but this does not have any effect on the pair. While for other pairs, including gold, the buck recovers its losses. If the euro / dollar pair did not go to correction now and on such data (20 points do not count), then on Monday it definitely will not. Well, I say, until you stretch the bears to 1.22 and do not align the positions of the correction should not be expected. Let's wait for the chief of the transport department to say in 17-30.

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    Good day to all.
    This morning, I saw that my sales could not close without loss.
    At night there was a breakdown at the level of 1,20580. Initially, I planned to open another sale, just above the level of 1,20580, but then decided that the technical picture was not very suitable for sales and removed the pending order for sale.
    After once again the level of 1,20660 was updated, I decided to close the sales and not wait any longer. The total loss was about 100 points. It is good that before these losses, there was a profit, which with a small profit compensated this loss. At the moment, the price has again reached the upper boundary of the rising channel. Also today, a very important level of 1.20900 was struck.
    Perhaps all this will serve to reduce the rate. I'll wait for the signal. If the euro continues to grow further, then I will wait for fixing the price above the upper border of the inclined channel and buying.



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    Why the volume is corrupt? It's not that the big volume is sales / purchases. It is worth remembering that the growth of volume (not climatic) in the growing market speaks about luring more and more people who want to buy into the purchase, as well as to sell. + growth on bull candlesticks indicates the presence of a strong buyer in the market And after the news we see a good volume which is more than 2 previous + on a bearish candle. It's already calls, that it's worth watching closely! The Clusterelles also have a large literature, for example: http://clusterdelta.com/voltheory/5


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    Greetings colleagues that we have here today;
    The key level of support is 1.2188 .
    The target resistance level is 1.2272 . In today's trading session, I expect the euro to continue strengthening against the US dollar towards the target resistance level of 1.2272. On the other hand, the withdrawal of the price below the key support level of 1.2188, will serve as a cancellation of this scenario and will replace the moods for the more bearish.


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    By pair, the euro-dollar will rebound at the opening to the level of 1.2100-1.2070, towards the equilibrium zone of the shif-villas and the main villas on the hourly scale, after the rebound, the price will continue to rise and work in the channel range Shift villas of the hour scale, but most likely we will return to our flat state, the Dow Jones index is still growing stronger dollar [ATTACH = CONFIG] 1757280 "> [/ QUOTE] However, it has not happened yet. I think many are waiting for a rollback. sales, and in the second and it's time. But the technical picture shows that at the opening of the market the pair EUR / USD surp Rizov did not offer flate in the narrow corridor from 1,2191 to 1,2208. On the daily chart of the pair, it can be seen that the quotations are traded above the moving average near the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands indicator bars, which indicates continued growth. In addition, the stochastic is growing. I hope that on the release of the first news the pair will still roll down, but not deep, I think, the maximum in the area of ​​1.2130 (the goal of the 4-hour timeframe), where again we should expect growth in the pair Euro / Dollar to the level of 1.2280.


  9. #4068
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    Good morning to you. The market really entered the impulse phase and made a good price increase. I already closed my purchase. I did not postpone the purchase for the next trading week. I'm a little afraid of strong price gaps between the closure and the opening of the market. If the price confirms your forecast and the price really fails to fall below 1,21150, then if there is a buy signal, I will buy it again. Moreover, in the price range from 1.20900 to 1.20150, there is a level from which you can buy when a signal appears.
    What about your purchases? Do you keep them open or also closed? It will be interesting to read your opinion. [/ QUOTE] Good morning! In vain you, of course, closed the gauntlet. But I also covered it for the restart. As I said on Friday, the Americans seemed to have deliberately dropped feet twice to buyers during their session: they cleaned unnecessary passengers from the locomotive called the trend. Well, they just collected a lot of liquidation in one place. [B] Turnover on Friday is the maximum for the year - 356737 [/ B] (I do not consider the session when the liquid was pumped from one contract to another, there may be more turnover, but it is not clean, as in this case), open interest + 22500. The range of opening deals - 2117-2136 on Forex. That's why this range is now the key for buyers. It is here that the market bought quotes higher for pushing. This week should not be allowed to continue the upward dynamics. I note that the weekly turnover is also the maximum for the year - 1 million 394 thousand. [B] Let me remind you that the three main signs of the trend are: 1) the growth of turnover (the maximum and corresponds to that in during the impetus last year). 2) the growth of open interest (open interest is maximal and has grown in a shock session). 3) price increase (came out of the zone of balance 1,1950-1,2050 on Forex). [/ B] All this extravaganza is accompanied by an honest positive delta (serious sellers were in the beginning of January in the figure below). Thus, [B] can draw several conclusions. [/ B] 1. The extreme range of purchases 2117-2136. The price should not be fixed on daily TF less (up to 2080-90 breakdowns are real). 2. Despite the deviation of the price from the range of purchases, it is not worth looking for a sale; The market in the impulse phase likes flat or on the strength of 50% correction. 3. In the case of flat corrections, do not be afraid to buy at current prices, because this is only an excuse to buy further. But remember that with each breakdown upward the probability of a deep rollback (within the limits of extreme pulses at 4n 1d TF, but not deeper than 2117-2136) increases. 4. Search for sales is possible only if the price is fixed below 1.2000. In the picture below, three options for the development of the week. 1. Imbalance from the current at 2250-2300 and search after this weekly balance. 3. Test 2117-2136, a set of weekly volume and imbalance in the 23rd figure. 4. Deep test down to 1,2020 (this is an extremely unlikely option this week). with each breakdown to the top, the probability of a deep rollback (within the limits of extreme pulses at 4n 1d TF, but not deeper than 2117-2136) increases. 4. Search for sales is possible only if the price is fixed below 1.2000. In the picture below, three options for the development of the week. 1. Imbalance from the current at 2250-2300 and search after this weekly balance. 3. Test 2117-2136, a set of weekly volume and imbalance in the 23rd figure. 4. Deep test down to 1,2020 (this is an extremely unlikely option this week). with each breakdown to the top, the probability of a deep rollback (within the limits of extreme pulses at 4n 1d TF, but not deeper than 2117-2136) increases. 4. Search for sales is possible only if the price is fixed below 1.2000. In the picture below, three options for the development of the week. 1. Imbalance from the current at 2250-2300 and search after this weekly balance. 3. Test 2117-2136, a set of weekly volume and imbalance in the 23rd figure. 4. Deep test down to 1,2020 (this is an extremely unlikely option this week).

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    Hello everyone, today the price is trading above the weekly pivot 1.21111 and above the daily pivot 1.2150 here we have a purchase target for buying pivot levels R2-1.2228 (blue) for opening deals inside day from the day pivot 1.2150 higher by 20 points 1.2170 we buy a profit of 40 points 1.2210 and from the day pivot 1.2150 lower by 20 points 1.2130 sales profit by 40 points 1.2090 today important levels to be noticed (support) blue 1.2150 1.20350 at the seller level and the buyer. Price worked key level 1.2100 blue strokes column today waiting for the spire on the day and the reversal of the main uptrend.

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  12. #4070
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    The week was closed with strong growth and this is not good ... The couple began to push harder on the growth of optimism due to the fact that Germany still formed the ruling coalition. But this growth almost all worked out on Friday, plus to-morrow there will be no Americans in the market - the low is a national holiday. Therefore, it is very tempting to strip Americans, who bought the euro above 1.2145, this time. So after a small jump up at the opening then it is very desirable to descend to the area of ​​1.2135 and possibly even to 1.2070.

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