Oil succeeded to achieve our first awaited target at 57.86 and attempts are being made to breach it, awaiting the extension of the upside wave towards our next target at 65.00, noting that stability above 54.30 is the most important condition for the continuation of the suggested bullishness.
The euro is now in the sideways trend, and any increase in the price is immediately compensated by reduction, without giving an opportunity both for buyers and sellers to make a profit.
Expected range
As for to the intraday option trading, the main levels of support and resistance were at 1.1300 and 1.1400.
These levels can be easily moved to today's price borders, from which we can start to work.
Yesterday, the levels with the maximum volume were at the far strikes of 1.1150 and 1.1500.
On the account of whether the price will be able to descend to 1.1150, I can’t say anything, but an increase to 1.1400 and later to 1.1500 is quite real.
Open interest.
As for the new contract, which entered into force yesterday, there is a curious situation on the new contract.
At the moment, the put level with the maximum open interest is higher than the call level.
And Max Pain is at the call level. In short, there is kind of a mess. Apparently, traders were wondering about whether to start proper growth and exit from the four-month flat or try again to update the low of 1.1215.
So far, I’m sticking to the first option, and if I don’t see clear signals from the seller, I will refuse to sell and buy either amid corrections or after breaking through the call level and consolidating above.
As for the weekly contract, the current trend of the market is clearly seen, but the option levels did not help much in understanding where the price will be in a week.
Trading actions:
Since the rate is slowly but surely moving up, I decided to remove limit purchases and stop only one working purchase with the target of 1.1439.
Stop loss order was placed just below 1.1244.
Besides, I opened a new limit purchase at the level of 1.1285. Stop loss and take profit orders are 100 points each, the risk is also standard, 3% of the deposit.
I wanted to sell from 1.1380, but then I decided to buy only under good option conditions.
Good sales will be when I see the exit of large buyers from the market.
Of course, no one prohibits to sell using scalping, but since I set targets of 100 points for the transaction, I see no point in getting distracted by sales.
facetoface (02-21-2019), sweetfriends (Yesterday)
Good morning, forum.
Indeed, bulls got what they wanted as the price reached 1.1370 without any issues.
Meanwhile, yesterday’s news from the FOMC meeting did not change much. Well, I expected that.
Now, here are my thoughts about today’s movement of the EUR/USD pair.
I believe the price will retreat to 1.1324 and then rebound to 1.1350. After that, it will retreat again to 1.1300 and face a resistance zone there.
I think a notable movement will take place only on Friday, today the pair is likely to trade flat.
Currently, H1 is headed upwards. Yet, I have a signal of downward direction on M15, we have to consider this fact. Although, the breakout of 1.1362 will cancel the downward movement.
What is required to get a bearish trend
In order for trend to become bearish, there should be a zig-zag movement on H1. When the white line on H1 will be headed down, it will mean bears are winning. When it is in horizontal position – chances are 50/50. For now, the white line is headed upwards, so the trend may remain bullish. Nevertheless, I hope for it to become bearish.
facetoface (02-21-2019), Jekai (02-21-2019), sweetfriends (Yesterday)
Hello. I have noticed that the news background heeds the technical analysis, so that some news is ignored in the market (worked out in advance). The situation in the market is currently very depressing, perhaps due to the US-China trade negotiations. Large investors are waiting and do not open positions. Due to the uncertainty about a successful outcome of the negotiations, the whole market is standing in the same place. But for us, small speculators, unlike large investors, the movement of 50 points is also a profit.
I personally do not notice a huge amount. As you can see from the volume profile, the whole volume is spread out and it’s not possible to determine the exact price where exactly they buy and sell. I dare to conclude that the entire volume includes buy and sell orders. Now everyone has their own truth, someone is waiting for the price at 1.14, while someone - at 1.12.
Based on even the open positions graph, it can be argued that almost equal shares of orders are open on both sides. In this case, it remains to wait until the strongest win and jump with him in one train.
On the hourly chart, we can see the upward channel. According to it, the level of support for the channel is expected at 1.1320. What concerns me is that the whole market sees this channel. When many know what is located on the chart (figure, candle, important resistance), the price goes in the opposite direction.
The daily chart is shocking us more and more. Yesterday, a Doji reversal pattern was formed again. But given the fact that we have rebounded from the lows of the daily chart of 1.1240, we should expect a further movement to the upside, but I am not sure.
Conclusion: I am looking at the chart and do not understand what is happening, it is not even possible to predict where we will go. I think that the reason is the situation between the US and China, their trade agreement. When there is accurate data, it will be clear which way the trend is expected to go in the medium term.
facetoface (Yesterday), sweetfriends (Yesterday)
The EUR / USD pair is trading in a negative direction towards the 1.1310 support, which is one of the keys to the next trend along with the resistance at 1.1380, and as long as the price between these two levels continues in neutral until we get a clearer signal for the next direction, Would push the pair towards 1.1190 in the near term, while breaching resistance will lead the price to gains starting at 1.1443 and extending to 1.1550.
I have the level of 1.1330 as the main support. This range acts as support for the put level, where there was a powerful put level yesterday and the day before.
The price confirms it. And yesterday, the maximum volume was at the same level of 1.1350 at futures price / 1.1330 at forex price. It is clear that the premium may have an impact, but a decline within the premium is normal, so at the critical mark of 1.280, I opened another position in reserve.
The main target is the call level of 1.1430. I have been waiting for it more than one day, that's why I hope for today. On Friday, the price movement is usually interesting.
At the moment, I have only one purchase at the price of 1.1339 with the target at 1.1439.
I will fix losses at 1.1239.
The limit order at 1.1283 is waiting for its turn and so far in the "standby" mode.
The targets of this purchase is 100 points from the entry, the risk is 3% of the deposit.
Today, I would like to see the price within at least 1.14 …
And so I hope that today, the market situation will be interesting. Limit the risks and wait for the long-awaited rally! Especially when the news background is full of significant events.
facetoface (Yesterday), sweetfriends (Yesterday)
Hello, everyone.
First, I will tell you what happened yesterday, because all this is a link of one chain.
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair drew zigzags, that's what we were waiting for.
Thus, we are creating a reversal model. It is not ready yet, since yesterday, the day was boring. And passivity is the first sign of the speculators' uncertainty. This means they can go in any direction. Yesterday, for example, I showed the difference between the kiwi and EUR/USD. So look at the New Zealand dollar and then at the EUR/USD pair, and you will understand why I predicted the downward movement of the kiwi, but as for EUR/USD, I am not sure yet, because this pair does not draw anything, it draws both the upside and the downside.
My expectations are the same, that is, the downside. I am sure in the downward direction, while the technique does not indicate it clearly.
From a technical point of view, the situation is currently 50 to 50, there is a sign of a reversal. First, the pressure on the downside is necessary; secondly, the second breakout of the 1.1322 level is needed.
Today, I plan to pick up the downward targets. From the level of 1.1320, we will probably get a rebound again and pull back. I do not rule out a pullback to 1.1360. Then a movement to 1.1265 is anticipated. I expect a rebound from 1.1320, since H1 is not ready yet, it delays a reversal.
According to my calculations, today, we may not have time to get 1.1210. It will be difficult for EUR/USD. But considering that we were standing in the same place and didn’t do anything yesterday, we can arrange a good rally.
As you can see, H1 faces the downside, which means that the northerners have a chance. And if they use this chance, the target will be 1.1420. So, bears, our downside is not ready yet, the technique is not ready for this yet ... Yes, I am a bear, but a bear as for daily candles. According to the technique, it is early to sell. And in order to sell, the price should go to 1.1350-60 and then down. Only in such case, it will be able to open sell deals. And now the bears can be easily moved with stop orders. The situation is unclear. In addition, M15 begins to reach for the upside. The intraday levels are 1.1321 and 1.1365, so let's see what level will be broken.
facetoface (Yesterday), sweetfriends (Yesterday)
The EUR / USD pair did not show any strong movement today to continue to fluctuate between 1.1370 and 1.1380 support levels, so we will continue to neutral until a breach of one of these levels is confirmed and then the next one is identified more accurately.
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