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Thread: EUR/USD pair discussion
  1. #4441
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    Hello,
    Let's consider the situation with the euro-dollar pair.
    Yesterday, there was something weird in the market, when the Americans were left alone, the pound made all my sales, the euro closed at a break-even point loss and in order to somehow go back to zero, due to the pound, I had to close the middle-term positions.
    Now a rather interesting situation is developing with the dollar index:

    So far, the price is moving along the upward trend, but the price has already come to the test of the trend and now there is every chance to break through it. If we break through the trend line, there will be a correction and the south will canceled for a while.

    I put the idea of a breakout of 1.1300 and a fall to 1.1130 aside, since, as I see, we are going to a rebound of the 1.1300 support. In fact, there is nothing new, because I have already considered this option in the previous posts on the daily chart:

    Since the breakout has been canceled for a while, and I donít know whether there will be the second test of the 13th figure, I decided to open in "buy", but I didnít see a clear signal for the euro, so I was guided by the dollar index.

    The pound left the south and frustrated all my plans.


    To be honest, I do not know whether we will go above the downward channel or not, but if we look at yesterday's behaviour of the pound, we can assume that the euro may do the same.

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  3. Sonata 19
  4. #4442
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    The pair is still in a strong viewing area and is supportive of a strong ascent. Expect correction at 1.1370 and then climb to 1.1410, 1.1490, 1.1550, and last 1.1700
    Elaston 1.1300

  5. #4443
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    Technical analysis for a pair (EUR USD)
    Euro dollar pair could skip level (1.1443), but fails consistency, which supports a continued decline.
    And to frame the husband walks four hours trend rising, and anchored at the point (1.1405), and shows the two support when (1.1360-1.1321), and where the price closed at 1.1389 probably more landing down to those levels, but that depends on consistency without point (1.1405), but that would be a pain Anticipate going up towards the levels (1.443-1.1490 then to 1.1620

  6. #4444
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    First of all eurusd, after correction it may proceed it downward movement again. Price made bearish pin bar at key level 1.1430. Price is in neutral zone because 1.1300 level have important. If price crossed it then next target is between 1.1200-1.1100. In hourly time frame price breakout the bullish trend line. Price may test demand zone around 1.1450, then proceed to 1.1300 level.

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  8. #4445
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    Hi, everyone.
    If we attach the trend line of October, 15 to the chart, then weíll get two lines at once. The first one will be based on the shadows of candlesticks, and the second one will be composed of those candlesticks.
    In the first case, the rebound level can be found in the range of 1.1450.
    In the second case, we can see the price to pull back from 1.1300.
    These levels coincide with the horizontal levels that I have depicted on the chart.
    As the price settled below the horizontal level of 1.1390, there is a good opportunity to sell.
    If there will be no price gap at the market opening, then I will place a sell trade.
    The nearest take profit level is located at 1.1350.
    As for the bullish divergence, it has already been confirmed, so let us just skip it.




    As for the downward movement on Friday, it occured after the bearish divergence had been formed. The fact of it is not a signal for me to enter the market, but a signal that the price may reverse.
    The divergence is usually formed at false breaks. A false break together with divergence can be considered as the condition to enter the market.
    Currently, there are following scenarios to enter the market:
    Sell at the current price after the market opening with target at 1.1350.
    A false break of 1.1350 occurs with the price holding above it. This will be a sign to open a buy deal.
    After the price breaks 1.1350 and reaches 1.1300, we can open a buy deal. In case the price holds at 1.1300, a false break may occur. After that, a buy signal will become stronger.


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  10. #4446
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    Hi, my dear colleagues!

    Itís Monday, so itís time to settle down to work and get profits.
    Here I provide my laconic outlook for EURUSD.


    The market opening was rather calm (comparing with the pound). The price managed to rise slightly but then pulled back.
    I have a couple of scenarios for trading intraday.

    The most probable scenario is:
    Conditions
    The should not hold below 1.1370. That is quite an important condition. Here the lower boundary of the high volatility range is located. If the price slides below it, the fall will deepen.
    The downward impulse is possible to test the sloping channel that has not been broken yet. Afterwards, the price may rebound.
    The upward target is at 1.1460. I donít want to not jump ahead so I did not set higher targets.
    The stop can be set at 1.1300.



    According to the alternative scenario, EURUSD can decline.
    Conditions
    The price will rise to 1.1460 where is will face resistance.
    The pair should not hold above the zone near 1.1490.
    Further, I expect a fall with the first target at 1.1340.


    Today I count on a rise in the pair in both scenarios.
    Todayís boundaries of disbalance lie at 1.1461 and 1.1280. These levels serve as reliable support and resistance levels. Besides, they can provide good signals for closing/opening deals.



    Options.

    Importantly, the pair may be quite volatile during this week. However, by the end of the week, it is likely to return to the range between 1.1450 and 1.1550 + the value of options (forex price is 1.1410-1.1510). Otherwise, options will be profitable which is not beneficial for the options sellers (Chicago Mercantile Exchange in this case)




    Wish everyone hefty profits!

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  12. #4447
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    The EUR / USD pair has maintained its stability below 1.1425, supporting expectations of a bearish trend targeting 1.1310 and 1.1155 as next major stops. The 1.1425 break will halt the expected decline and lead the pair to gains starting at 1.1585 and 1.1755.


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  14. #4448
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    Hello,

    I do not expect any significant movement from the pair today. Let's consider what we have according to the trends and levels.
    It is possible to assess the situation with the help of the D1 time frame.
    Currently, the pair is under the confirmed trend, well, and until the trend is broken, I expect that there will be a rebound from the trend.
    And accordingly, there is a resistance zone at the top, which was support, and now there is a test at the bottom of the zone, which means that the resistance is now 1.1430-1.1455 on the daily chart and there is a trendline at the top in this resistance.
    According to the daily chart, a downward movement to the support zone in the area of 1.1315 is possible.

    Well, if we review the situation with the help of H4, the pair has already changed its direction in favor of growth. The descending channel was broken, high was updated, yesterday the pair made a pullback to the 61th figure, and now may well go th the overhigh. In order to confirm the growth, an overhigh is needed, and then it would be possible to build a channel for growth on H4, that's where there will be resistance and the upper limit of the daily channel according to D1. So it may not go north.

    Here, we should probably wait for an exit if the pair is able to break through high at 1.1455, or low at 1.1353. And if EUR/USD is able to move through some of these extremes and consolidate, it will most likely go there.

    I believe that the pair will most likely flat and make a triangle here. In my mind, such a triangle is the most likely scenario. Besides, I expect a way down from this triangle.

    Well, if the daily trend line is not broken in the northern direction, and the pair goes down, according to D1, it is likely that the pair will perform the wedge pattern. And then after the downward movement to the fifth figure, it will eventually give way to the north, probably break through low, and develop the northern trend.


    So, I expect that the news will lead to some moves which, as a result, will push the pair to the north after updating the low.

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  16. #4449
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    Hello, everyone.
    Today, in American deals, there is an increased degree of stress due to the election.
    As you can see, passions also run high in the market.
    The purchase was closed with take order at 1.1370.
    I also chose a comfortable place for sale with a target of 1.1395.
    Let's see, after all, everything depends on news, but I will not go back.

    Now let's figure out the current situation with the euro-dollar pair.

    I highlighted the current growth by the channel. The graph clearly shows the zone where major players are now trying to gain a position.
    During the Asian session, the price entered the resistance zone and received a rebound. Currently, it is trying to get there again.
    I suppose that this time it will be rejected.
    In general, I expect a decline to the lower border of the channel and support in the area of 1.1390-95.

    An option with the price decline.
    Conditions.
    1. The price should not be consolidated above 1.1500.
    2. It is even desirable not to leave the resistance zone (that is, not higher than 1.1485).
    3. The target of the decline is 1.1390-95.
    Another argument for a short-term decline is a formation that is very close to a "false breakout".
    Let's see how it justifies itself.

    After the decline, I will look for a point for purchases again.
    The entry is the same as on Monday.

    Conditions for growth.
    1. The price should not be consolidated under 1.1390.
    2. The entry for a purchase is in the area of 1.1395.
    3. Potential for growth is 1.1500.


    The disbalance borders today are as follows:
    the upper limit is 1.1517;
    the lower limit is 1.1336.

    Options.
    I wonder who of the major players benefits from investing much money in put options at the strike of 1.1350 a few days before expiration.
    Moreover, there was another decent amount in call options at the strike of 1.1550.
    Against the background of a general outflow at different strikes, these levels stand out greatly.


    I assume that this behavior indicates a flat movement. Although my priority is to growth to 1.1500.

    That's it. So I wish everyone successful trading.

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  19. #4450
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    Hello, everyone.

    Yesterday, there was a pullback. Today, I’ve drawn a couple of lines on the chart. And it turns out that somewhere from the current levels (a couple of points, give or take), we will go further north.
    The first trend line was built according to the bodies of candles, the second one is built according to the shadows of the candles. At the moment, we are drawing a breakout on the first trend line.

    So far, these are some options I have. I expect a growth to 1.1530-1.1550, and after a pullback, but it remains to be seen whether there will be just a pullback or a reversal. Of course, I hope that we will break through the level of 1550 easily. But so far, we have stopped about the level.

    If we consider the situation with the euro-dollar pair through the dollar index, we can say that the upward movement in the euro will go on, since the dollar index continues to move below the downward trend line. The breakout from the trend will occur at the levels of 96.20-96.30, then the euro will be able to hit the level of 1.1420 (10). It will be necessary to place stop orders a bit further, they are too close, so may be knocked down...

    I don’t consider an approach to the 16th figure today, as we should pass much from the current ones. So, it will be okay if we come to 1.1530-.11550, and even to the current high of 1.1500 today.
    Last edited by Haviz; 11-25-2018 at 03:10 PM.

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