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Thread: EUR/USD pair discussion
  1. #4661
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    Technical Analysis EUR/USD, March 12 2019

    Hello friends, traders in arms, hopefully in today's healthy state and have a strong working spirit to pick up fortune today, the movement of EURO USD in these two days tends to lead to a bullish direction, it looks like this is looking for a correct correction direction, yesterday the EU was at the price of 1.12497 and now the EU is at the highest price 1.12745 does not rule out the EU will still move towards the price of 1.13000 if this price correction is of course a long price correction and we must be aware of a bullish trend occurring at the EU fair while the big trend still leads bearish direction if we trade not carefully in the use of lots will definitely suffer losses.

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    Today's EU and GU are moving up as if this has something to do with the important event that will occur in the EURO Zone. It could be that the EU moves up and down from the moment of the Brexit decision, so that the EU corrects a decent price yesterday. the question, why is it going up high while the big trend is still potentially bearish so those who do have to be alert to fear that the riject will occur when the EU price moves down suddenly.


    Looking at calendar news today there are a lot of news that will certainly affect market movements today, especially those that should be a concern, BREXIT's news vote that can affect the EU news market movement today is a lot, so don't be careful. reasonable to prevent any further losses there are some high news from USD tonight, of course money management must be safeguarded.

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    today EURUSD still has the potential to rise, we must remain vigilant, do not let the wrong entry of the EU still look for a price correction, at least look for a right footing to be able to plunge back to the closest support.

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  3. #4662
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    Hello, forum dwellers.
    Yesterday was not that interesting in terms of trading, even though there was a good point of entry for scalpers. I read that some guys managed to make a profit from a downtrend.
    I agree with one fellow trader that the euro is going to give us some tough time, even though it had been trading smoothly for couple of days last week. However, it was rather an exception than a rule.
    As for the pound, I was waiting for the price to retreat to open short positions. So, I opened it. Now, Iím waiting for the results.
    The EUR/USD situation is not clear, it looks more like flat.
    The price broke through the local low, but then rebounded and stayed around there. So, we have to wait and see.
    Name:  c1mar12.PNG
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    The current situation.
    Here everything is very simple. There is a zone of accumulation 1.1220-1.1260. Now, the price should move downwards. Why downwards?
    I have 5 reasons:
    1. There is a zone of short positions around 1.1290-1.1320. The reaction for accumulation was good, the price met the strong support level 1.1200+-. There was a breakout, but the price returned back to the range right after it. Then, it retreated.
    2. The trendline stopped at the first resistance level and reversed downwards.
    3. Yesterday the price moved upwards and tested 1.1260+-. Then, it retreated.
    4. A new futures contract is coming up soon. It will be accompanied with the downtrend tending to cover the gap caused by the price difference between old and new contracts. We can see in on futures, the platform will not show it.
    5. Basically, the trend is bearish. It is not clear, but it is there. So, whatís the point to go against the trend? Therefore, I think itís too early to enter purchases.
    I believe, the price is likely to reach 1.1320, and then go down. However, the higher it gets, the lesser will be a downward movement.
    A strong rebound after a sharp decline indicates a weakness of bear traders. Yet, we might see a stronger trend after additions around 1.1290-1.1320 in case there are volumes. No volumes Ė no movement.
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    As for options, a new monthly contract entered into force.
    Here are some tips for you.
    So, the maximal accumulation of the open interest for calls is at 1.1500 and for futures Ė 1.1550. So, I expect the growth of about 1.5 pips.
    The put situation looks even more interesting.
    Here several strikes happened to be support levels, 1.1350 and 1.1150 were the most important ones.
    Please pay attention to 1.1150 as the open interest tends to rise here.
    So, 1.1150 may become a put level with the maximal open interest soon. Therefore, the price may get going this side as well which would be about 2 pips down from the current positions.
    Considering the bearish sentiment, this scenario seems to be very likely.
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  5. #4663
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    EUR/USD FORECAST TODAY

    The EURO rose slightly during the trading session again on Tuesday we have seen a good recovery after the European Central Bank press conference sent the euro right at 1.1300 levels. However, it is very possible that long-term traders will return and because this is the main support level at the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

    That is an important level more than once, so it's not too surprising to see institutional purchases in that area if we do that is a very bullish sign. This is not to say that it will happen once, but in the meantime it seems that a short-term pullback will continue to be considered a buying opportunity in this market. However, even though we broke the 1.1300 level, we turned back.

    The last three days are good for the euro, as opposed to spontaneous reactions. That is a very good sign, when we start approaching the 50-day EMA. The EMA has of course been sliced ​​several times, so I think at this point it is very possible that the moving average has lost its importance, and therefore I do not believe too much. However, the 200-day EMA, which happens to be above the larger consolidation area, is still above. Because of this I think we continue to see a lot of ignorance in this market when the Federal Reserve is on the sidelines, and the ECB is most certain after the press conference.

    This is a couple that tends to make traders see one side of the other, but never at all. When we start focusing on the Federal Reserve again, it will bode well for the Euro. However, the EU economy is not strong enough to cause escape. After all that noise, it looks like we are still bouncing between the 1.1270 level at the bottom, with 1.1400 as the top. Because we are getting closer to the bottom, it makes more sense to start buying at low prices.

    Technical Analysis and Forex Strategy Pair EURUSD

    Wednesday, March 13, 2019

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    the price on the EURUSD pair on Tuesday went up again
    up to the highest level at 1.1305. Daily Moving Average Directions start to rise and direction from Moving
    Weekly and Monthly Average starts flat again. Most likely today the price is only
    will move sideways only.

    We can do BUY options as close as possible to the level of 1.1248 with Stop Loss at the level of 1.1212
    We can do SELL options as close as possible to the level of 1.1321 with Stop Loss at the level of 1.1356

    Key Level:
    Support: 1.1140 and 1.1121
    Resistant: 1.1321 and 1.1346

    Information :
    Daily Moving Average: Green Line
    Weekly Moving Average: Pink Line
    Monthly Moving Average: Blue Line
    Least Square Weekly Moving Average (LSMA): Pink Red Line.

  6. #4664
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    Hello, everyone.
    As for the EUR/USD pair, I have been telling you about the uptrend for three weeks. So, dear traders, the moment has come and the uptrend has arrived. However, it has been too short-lived.
    In fact, H1 made a reversal signal to the upside, but then the price went away without fulfilling the conditions for an entry. Well, it happens, especially when the market is waiting for something. In our case, it is the vote on Brexit.
    On H4, the debt was left at 1.1200. On M15, the debt was left at 1.1220. And on H1, the debt was left at 1.1210.
    I do not lose hope, Iím still waiting for a downward movement tomorrow. Even if we go to 1.1350, I will be waiting for a downward movement. The higher we go up, the more debt we leave. And the faster we go down, the faster we end up with the debt.
    So far, of course, we are looking downwards within the day. I hope that today, we will finally break through the intraday level of 1.1249. Then it will be possible to go to 1.1210, and then to 1.1210. If everything is correct, we will be able to prepare for an upward movement.
    Name:  a1mar13.PNG
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    Intraday levels.
    Intraday levels show us the way. For example, let's take 1.1257, I serves as a guide. Well, after the breakout, we saw that the direction was upward.
    And now let's see what we have for today in terms of the levels.
    The top is 1.1293.
    The bottom is 1.1249.
    Today, they will show us what to do, but considering how we ended the day yesterday, I do not rule out that we will start the day with the uptrend.
    Name:  a2mar13.PNG
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    As for the intraday trading, we are keeping the upward trend, the level of 1.1293 with the target of 1.1320 will confirm the uptrend. Cancellation of the uptrend is a breakout of 1.1249. I am going to wait for a pullback which will show its northern trend. So far, I am not going down without a zigzag. The uptrend has finally came, but there are no conditions for entering.
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    M15 went to the ďsellĒ zone, but we are spinning at the upward level. To be honest, I do not understand where the trend is. There was a downward movement amid the news and then a return back up. This has been going on for three months. All hope is now for Friday, if there is no downward zigzag, the way out to the upside will be false. In addition, I want to add that we need to go to yesterday's high. Here, on the chart, there are places highlighted in blue which indicate that we should not go further.
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    Hello, dear traders.
    Yesterday, we reached the target within the 13th figure with great difficulty. Initially, I placed take profit orders at a price of 1.1304, but then decided to close everything manually in order to avoid a sharp pullback.
    Then the price would reach the take order exactly point to point and start pulling back. But that's okay, the loss received earlier was almost offset, and taking into account trading with the help of other instruments for the last trading days, there is some profit. In particular, we managed to catch yesterday's drop in the pound. I planned that there would be something similar with the euro, but the news on the vote worked in advance.
    Then almost nothing has changed, the pair is stuck in a narrow flat. The ground for a breakout of 1.1325 is probably being prepared.

    Today, the call level is at 1.1310, but the risk premium is large, 60 points. Taking into account this premium and forward point, we get the upper border of 1.1310-1.3370.
    The lower border is at the level of 1.1160 - 1.1139.
    The range between the levels is 150 points. Taking into account the premiums, it increases by 80 points.
    This range is quite enough to make good money amid the price reduction.
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    Today, sales are more attractive than purchases. More recently, I was a supporter of the euro growth and I was careful with sales, but now, the situation has changed. Now Iím waiting for another upward movement of the euro and then a decline. The higher the euro goes up, the lower it will have to fall further.
    The level of 1.1160 is chosen correctly, but taking into account the risk premium, it expands to 1.1139.
    Yesterday, changes in OI were in favor of the levels of 1.1500 and 1.1250 at futures prices.
    For example, 594 new call contracts were added at 1.1500. As a result, at this level, now we have the maximum interest of call options for the monthly contract.
    This range will clearly act as the resistance level from which it will be possible to open sell deals.
    The level of 1.1250 was also strengthened by new put options, but the maximum OI of put options is at 1.1350.
    Let's see how the price will react to 1.1350at futures price /1.1260 at forex price. If it meets support, sales will no longer be relevant.
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    Trading actions:
    Firstly, yesterday, I fixed all my purchases at the level of 1.1297, which brought almost 6% of the deposit.
    Secondly, I opened a new sale from 1.1283 with the targets of 100 points.
    Thirdly, there is another limit sale at a price of 1.1362 with the targets of the same 100 points and the risk of 3% of the deposit.
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    After a dramatic fall, the euro has been making attempts to grow for the third day. Today, I do not exclude a short-term growth, after which it is expected to decline.
    If the low at 1.1177 is not updated in the coming days, the rate will be able to strengthen significantly, but for now, I expect a decline.

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  10. #4666
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    Hello, everybody.
    The review of EUR/USD.
    Let's consider yesterday's situation regarding the EUR/USD pair. Within the day, there was a breakout of the 1.1293 level. And this means that there is confirmation of the uptrend and there is a chance to reach the target of 1.1320. The intraday forecast was confirmed, but it is not enough for me, since I was waiting for another downward movement, but it was being delayed. The problem of a zigzag delay is that the upward reversal is broken. And the higher we go, the more we break the uptrend. And we break the uptrend, because we return back to the original point from where the upward movement began.

    As a result, we can say that the uptrend which I am waiting for can be at risk. Everything depends on how far we go up.
    Each time we move to the upside, we create a boomerang formation. We already have it on M15, but we do not take it into account, it is a short period of time. The same boomerang was drawn on H1, and H4 can give the same formation as well. And in order to ensure it will not happen, we should not reach the level of 1.1370, otherwise our upward movement will be over. Given that everything points to the upside, the EUR/USD pair is gradually becoming inappropriate for the medium-term trading. All that is left to do is to conduct intraday trading.

    Intraday levels.
    Intraday levels indicate the way to profit.
    The top is 1.1315.
    The bottom is 1.1277.
    Yesterday's level of 1.1293 was achieved. After the breakout, we successfully reached the target of 1.1320, and well, the vote on the Brexit deal finished off what's left of the target. So let's see what Friday will show us. We are aware of the levels, it remains to determine the targets. The upward target is 1.1370, while the downward one is 1.1250. Well, then intraday levels will show us the direction.
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    Intraday trading.
    Within the day, everything is the same. The target is 1.1350. The breakout of 1.1315 will confirm the uptrend. But in fact, we have already broken through it. We can only wait for the European session. The cancellation of the uptrend is the breakout of 1.1277. That's what I think of the intraday trading.

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    It can be seen that speculators perceive Brexit as the upward trend. The most interesting is that today is the last day of the vote, and we have the last levels of 1.1350 and 1.1370, the breakout of 1.1370, that's all. We can say that H4 is being broken, from the upside, but with a return to the upside. And then there will probably be a flat which will begin on H4. Well, that's not bad, I'm pretty much okay with a flat on H4, it will be possible to work there within the day. So let's see how this plays out. Everything depends on what the US will show us. Yesterday, they showed us an upward trend.

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  12. #4667
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    Welcome to the forum everybody!

    The Euro-dollar currency pair unfortunately did not decline, as it was imagined. Nonetheless, it moved higher on the “Wolfe” target and was able to broke through the critical level. Therefore, the upward movement of the pair is currently being looked for. For the time being, a decline to the level of 1.1274 is anticipated. From there, we can expect an increase to the level of 1.1350 once again. Such goal to move the prices is quite expected this day or to the following day. Meanwhile, the indicators on the daily chart supports the upward movement of the pair. The stochastic indicator, on the other hand, turns around to make a movement downwards. In this case, it is expected to have a small correctional movement below, after which, the pair can increase again.

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  13. #4668
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    Hello, everyone.
    The review of the EUR/USD pair.
    Let's begin the most important point. The general trend is downward. At the moment, we have a pullback from the downward movement to the upside. So far, I have to postpone my plans to go upwards. There are reasons for that. The first reason is to wait for a pullback to assess the situation. During the pullback, H1 may be turned to the downside again. The second reason is a flat. I think that there will be a flat in the range of 1.1190 and 1.1400, because our upward movement was not in the way it was supposed to go according to the technical analysis.
    The levels of 1.1190 and 1.1200 still serve as support for large time frames.
    The weekly and monthly charts also remain upward. So far, they are still in force. They will show their strength more than once, especially at the lower levels. When approaching the lower levels, we can get a rebound. If this movement occurs without news, there will not be a breakout. Such levels as 1.1190 will have to be broken through amid significant news. So, if we go downwards to the level of 1.1190, a trick is possible.
    And in order to be aware and understand when the downward trend comes, I will briefly tell you about it. The first level of confirmation of the downtrend will be a breakout of 1.1250.
    After the breakout of 1.1250, there should be a rebound and return to 1.1320, these will be two conditions for a reversal to the downside, and the final condition which will turn H1 to the downside is indicated on the chart in yellow.
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    Levels indicating directions.
    Yesterday's level of 1.1315 gave us the uptrend, but alas, it was weak. The main target of 1.1350 was not achieved, but a new level of 1.1336 was created. And today, the latter will serve as confirmation of the upward direction.
    The level of 1.1293 is now the most important for me. It points the way to the downside. The fact whether there will be a downward reversal or not depends on it.
    The top is 1.1315.
    The bottom is 1.1293.
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    Intraday trading.
    Within the day, the north remains in force. The target is the same, 1.1350. The level of 1.1335 will confirm the uptrend. The cancellation of the uptrend is the breakdown of 1.1293. At the moment, the M15 has come to the upside. According to M15, we will pull back a little further to 1.1300 and then go upwards.
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  15. #4669
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    The uptrend is still the priority. The bears have been passive for two days. It appeared that they entered the market and then took a step back. There was no activity on the part of them. In the meantime, M15 went into the ďbuy" area. It remains to confirm the uptrend with a breakout of 1.1336 according to the levels. Then we will reach 1.1370.
    But the 1.1370 level breaks H4 with a downward signal and creates a boomerang with a movement to 1.1200. Now bears need to lower the price to 1.1305 in order to at least slightly strengthen their position, if we are not able, the bulls will immediately begin to push the upside. In general, I am surprised at such a movement without turning zigzags, this is a very dangerous movement which can be turned back at any moment. In this regard, the pound made a great job: it went up by 340 points, return down, performed a zigzag, and then continued its upward movement. While the EUR/USD pair has been drawing some figures for three months. It is difficult to understand whether it is a trend or a flat. In general, I think that we have a flat with a focus on the downside, after which I expect an upward reversal.
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    As for the zones, it turns out that the remaining zone is 1.1200, although there is no downward signal, but 1.1200 is waiting its turn. Most likely, we will reach it next week, as we will not have time today. For the EUR/USD pair, 120 points will be too much.
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  18. #4670
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    Good morning, guys!
    So, what is the euro up to?
    It seems like it decided to test the upward boundary once again. Thatís right.
    Today is day X for our currency pair.
    Everything is ready for the bearish trend. However, things are not that easy as there are strong support level to break through.
    The first support level is at yesterdayís lows of 1.1295-1.1300.
    If we take a look at volumes, we can see that the previous rise did not really have a strong basis.
    Today the futures contract should change. Considering this fact, the downward movement to close the gap would be perfect.
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    Otherwise, the price might increase and consolidate above 1.1340, and even go higher.
    I donít want it to happen, yet itís possible.
    Anyways, I wonít close my sell deals for now considering purchases at the same time.
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    I expect the downward movement to start, however, the high might still get renewed before it. The euro followed this scenario many times, why not again.
    The news background is quiet today.
    The European CPI and American JOLTS are due today. The data from the US labor market is promising, therefore, it will support the greenback. Actually, the JOLTS has been having an uptrend recently.
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    So, letís see if forecasts will be confirmed this time.

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