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Thread: EUR/USD pair discussion

  1. #4251
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    Let me present my outlook on EUR/USD.



    I would prefer a real buy limit, but my money withdrawal is suspended now. So, it would be troublesome if the price touches my stop orders before I withdraw my funds. Thus, here is my rough outlook. I wish I could take out my money as soon as possible. I have some ideas which I want to put into practice. The US dollar has to regain 40 pips up to the target area. It seems this area will hardly be reached now. EUR/USD is likely to trade flat until the US session opens. Then, the price will go down.

    My scenario is to enter the market on Friday before the end of the trading day. I think the price will rebound slightly northward after testing 1.1730-1.1745. This will allow a market entry at the best price and an immediate trade in the green provided that the market continues the upward bias on Monday. It would be great if the price reaches 1.1830-1.1840 on Wednesday. I think it would be quite easy and it will confirm my market vision. Meanwhile, this is just my guesswork. By the way, the market often springs surprises )

    One of the forum participants has shared her disappointment with yesterdayís trade. She had too much buying and the market punished her. This trader confesses she is unable to make a good judgment. Yesterday, she lost 60.000 rubles ($983). She wants to learn a lesson.
    I feel an urge to reassure her. $983 is not a big loss. This year, I lost 150.000 rubles ($2.459) when the US dollar fell against the Japanese yen. In fact, I lost the whole deposit. Now, Iím recovering my losses slowly but surely.

    Last week, I decided to take a more serious approach to my trading. I used to open deals with every new bonus. Can you imagine? I had 7-8 attempts to increase my deposit ten-fold, but all my efforts failed. Interestingly, I had an opportunity to close with a 100% return and even 150-200% return. Nevertheless, I didnít do this because I was obsessed by greed. Eventually, I regretted about it.

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  3. #4252
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    Hi, dear traders and analysts!

    The euro-dollar pair tried to break the level of 1.1840, but it did not manage to do it. Today a technical rebound occured below 1.18. All those who sold from the upper levels together with me can close their trades and fix profits. The pivot point is at 1.1805, while the target of the local upward channel lies at 1.1847. So, a retest of the weekly high is possible. Moreover, the price can go even higher towards 1.19. If the 4H candlestick closes below 1.1770, the downward bias is likely to be formed with targets at 1.1720 and 1.1660. Today is Friday, so profits may be fixed by the end of the day. In that case a counter-trend movement by 30-50 points is possible.


  4. #4253
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    The euro was now caught by the levels, both at 1.1840 and 1.1740 at the bottom. In this situation, it is logical to at least wait for the breakdown of one of these levels, that would understand in which direction it is better to open positions. In general, the situation is also triggered by the fact that globally the trend is downward, and the local trend is up.


  5. #4254
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    Here is my outlook on EUR/USD for today and this trading week.

    Hello everybody! Today, I guess the levels for the week have changed slightly. The target levels in the north are 1.1910 and 1.1950. I cancel the northward weekly outlook because of a breakout of 1.1590.

    Now letís estimate what weíve got for intraday trading. According to the chart of the 15-minute timeframe, the trendline points northward. The target levels are 1.1830 and 1.1860. Afterward, I expect the price to be rejected and retreat to 1.1779. Thatís the price move for today. I donít rule out a breach of 1.1779, though I doubt it. Then, I expect the price to head for 1.1750 and 1.1710. At these levels, Iíll be waiting for a breakout and a move higher to 1.1910. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, weíve entered a trading range where the pair is going to trade in a zig-zag manner. The most important here is to identify moves up and down. Meanwhile, the price is higher than 1.1779, heading northward.

    Iím not sure but it seems we can trade without stop loss today until the price enters a zig-zag. I donít mean to advise you this. Itís up to you to decide. Everyone trades according to their skills. Anyway, Iím going to trade with stop loss as usual as I find this safer and more efficient. Thatís all I wanted to tell you. Now, Iím going to roll up my sleeves and Iím ready for nice profits.

    ---------- Post added at 03:14 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:09 PM ----------

    Hi! I had the same variant until Friday. I mean growth to 1.1950-1.2070 as the main scenario. However, the price reversed upward on Friday according to the chart of a 1-hour time frame. For a start, I expect a retracement but lower than a high of last week. I wish the price made Fridayís low according to the chart of a 1-hour time frame. Then, Wednesday and Thursday will come up. So, the levels under these time frames will not be valid. In this case, we should consider longer time frames. I mean what breakout levels are to be reached and what levels would be rejected. I expect pair to trade inside that triangle.



    When the price exits the triangle, the price will follow that direction from my viewpoint. However, thereís a scenario that the pair will trade inside the triangle until the Fedís policy meeting. In the alternative scenario, traders will sort out dubious outcome of the G7 summit.

    I guess the triangle could be inside a wave that will be followed by an advance to 1.19-1.2 roughly. Meanwhile, it is too early to discuss whether the price will go there or not. In the screenshot, it is clear that I sold, thinking that the price would not grow and decline. However, I closed a sell position with a small profit because I saw that something was wrong with a decline from 1.1840. Indeed, that decline is of a correctional character.

    Iíve just looked at the 15-minute chart. I see a diagonal upward from a Fridayís low and then a downward correction. Then, I assume growth to 1.19 from the current level. Iím not 100% sure about it, this is my guesswork. Meanwhile, Iím in a wait-and-see mood. As soon as my trading system signals a market entry, Iíll open a deal immediately.

    By the way, on a 5-minute chart the price has moved 100 pips upward. The important thing is a 5-minute chart, but not a 1-hour chart. In the latter, the price is trying to push lower. Thatís why Iím out of the market so far. It is no good to be in a hurry. Everyone knows that. Traders expected a robust market response to Trumpís activities at the summit. In fact, the market took no notice of Trumpís remarks. Only USD/JPY has created a wide gap of less than 50 pips. In other words, the market is indifferent to Trumpís activities or the market doesnít believe him.


  6. #4255
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    The EUR / USD currency pair moves up the upward corridor on the 4-hour time frame. I expect that the currency pair will rise to the level of resistance 1.3377, which will be broken and the currency pair will rise to resistance level 1.3383. If the currency pair breaks through this resistance level, the price of the currency pair will rise to resistance level 1.3389.


  7. #4256
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    Of course you have to understand that today is an important day and in the evening the FRS will somehow create some movement and naturally the rate increase will be (IMHO) and it's already in price and most importantly it's a statement. And so it can be said that while we are in the outset, we can not break below 1.1740, but also above 1.1815-1.1835 we can not get away either, I personally still look at the southern direction, and if I get to foms, I think I'll try to sell.


  8. #4257
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    As you can see, the Fibo level is 1.1770, gave a good breakdown and in case of not the ability of the euro to gain a foothold higher, it is likely to go to the first support 1.1750, and in case of a possible breakdown, to the very same until the penetration level 1.1732. I can be wrong, it's just my point of view.


  9. #4258
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    Hello all fellow traders and high-fliers in particular! At the weekend I wrote that it would be nice for EUR/USD to stay flat on Monday Ė Tuesday and make a spike later amid the news background. Itís good the pair remained trading sideways. Otherwise, the pair could have resumed sideways trade in the news context, if it had abandoned a trading range earlier. Now, I expect a northward bias as an inverted Head-and-Shoulder pattern is still valid. The second shoulder has to be formed. To do this, the levels 1.1830-1.1840 have to be breached. In this case, we can see growth to 1.2000 and even to 1.2100. Therefore, buying looks especially gainful now.



    I opened a pending buy order at the price of 1.1730. The 15-minute chart hasnít drawn the north yet. Thatís why there is a probability of a lower low. I certainly want to enter the market at the best entry point. During my previous attempts, the price immediately bounced from 1.1745-1.1730 on the 15-minute chart. This time, the price has been frozen at 1.1745 for 6 hours in a row.



    It seems the price is getting ready for a lower low that I told you about above. Anyway, I expect a bounce afterward because the price is trapped in a trading range before the Fed policy decision. If market players had wanted to escape a trading range, they would have done this yesterday. Now, traders are planning to open positions. Somebodyís mood will be spoilt tonight. I hope not mine. At present, the number of buyers is 56% and the number of sellers is 44%. Viewpoints differ as usual. I predicted the price would hover around the same level of 1.1830(40) to gather more sellers when the US Fed will announce a long-awaited rate hike. In this case, the Head-and-Shoulder would have been already nicely formed. Actually, the ongoing price move attracts bulls so far that is the opposite scenario. Letís wait and see. Meanwhile, Iím sure about buying.

  10. #4259
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    Outlook for intraday trading and level correction for weekly outlook
    Hello, fellow traders! First, letís consider weekly levels. My target was 1.1930, but it has changed to 1.1860. The breach of 1.1650 will cancel the upward scenario. Without the breach, my expectations remain bullish, but I keep my eye on intraday changes.
    Intraday trading
    On the intraday basis, there is a bearish signal on the M15 time frame. The target is at 1.1710 and 1.1650, which is worse. As Iíve already said, the level of 1.1650 will cancel the upside. The downside cancellation is the mark of 1.1762. Remember that later in the day the FOMC meeting minutes will be revealed, so be cautious. Thatís all I have to say. Today I will be bearish for the euro-yen pair. Who wants can earn about 100 pips for the downside.



    ---------- Post added at 02:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:56 PM ----------







    Hi everyone! Enjoy the trend as expected! The euro has been developing a rally since late May until the present. The reason is that ECB chief economist Peter Praet said that the central bank is going to discuss plans of tapering QE program at the nearest policy meeting. So, traders expect to know some comments before the ECB starts to wind down its bond-buying program in September. The policy meeting in July seems to be the best timing for the discussion as the ECB policymakers have enough time to assess economic data. This is especially important in the period of economic slowdown in the eurozone. After the ECB announces the plans on tapering, the single European currency is set to strengthen. Nevertheless, any assessment will be have a temporary effect as deviation between monetary policy of the US Fed and the ECB remains in place. The market expects the ECB to exit from its QE program by December 2018. After the exit, the funds which used to be allocated for bond buying will be reinvested like the US Fed did to keep the balance sheet of $4.5 trillion in 2014-2017. The Fed has already completed this procedure. It is keen now to increase the balance sheet and raise interest rates.

    The ECB is to follow the same path. Last week, Mr. Praet said there are signs of inflation approaching the target level which is the main driving force of the eurozoneís economy. Indeed, this fact is responsible for wages. Recent inflation data confirms confidence that inflation will reach the target level of around 2% in the medium term. Besides, the economist added that expansion of the ECB program is accompanied by inflation expectations which are close to the target level. The key point of his speech is that the ECB governing board has to assess this week whether the progress is enough to wind down bond buying. This is viewed as a dovish statement for the market. It signals that the central bank will carry on its stimulus.

    At present, the euro is trading at the price of opening and edged up 0.1%. This growth is likely to be short-lived in the context of the weekly dynamic. I assume the euro to lose ground today. Since the start of the trading week, the euro has lost its advantage and shed 0.2% against the US dollar. Perhaps, the situation will worsen by the end of the week. Since June 1st, the euro is still in the green zone, having gained 0.45%. However, amid such a rapid decline the euro could lose its advantage. So EUR/USD is unlikely to close in the green.

    As for pivot points, the scenario is not good. The pair is holding below the pivot point PP 1.1754. This could be a bad signal for today and the whole week. In the current situation, I expect the pair to decline to S1 1.1667, then to bounce and return to PP 1.1754. If the price breaks upward, the target level will be R1 1.1856. It is hard to believe. Iím more inclined to believe that S1 1.1667 will be breached and the price will decline to the pivot level of S2 1.1565. If this decline is supported by todayís statistics, the pair will be able to reach easily S3 1.1478 by the end of the week.

    The technical aspect of EUR for 13.06.2018. EUR/USD remains in the buyersí zone according to the 4H chart. Buyers open their deals from 1.1685-1.1705. According to H1 chart, the pair can carry on falling under the sellersí influence. The zone of sellersí interest is 1.1805-1.1835 under H1 chart. According to 15M chart, the pair is also in the zone of sellersí interest which is capped by 1.1785. The price is gradually moving to the zone of sellersí interest according to H1 chart. It means that the price growth will be difficult today. Meanwhile, Iím inclined toward a decline of the pair after retracement to 1.1785 -1.1835 where I expect a reversal and a drop to 1.1685. If the level is breached, I expect a further decline to 1.1640. Afterward, a retracement is possible and a consequent fall to 1.1560. If broken, the next important level is 1.1475. In case it is breached, the new target level is 1.1230. If 1.1835-1.1840 is broken, I assume a price reversal and further growth to 1.1910 amid robust buying activity, then I expect pullback to 1.1960.

    Trading plan on EUR/USD for 13.06.2018.
    1. I opened a long pending order at the price of 1.1785 with stop loss at 1.1835 and target level of 1.1230. The deal volume is small because stop loss is big.
    2. When 1.1835 is breached, I keep my order with stop loss at 1.1780 and target level of 1.2085. This is a preliminary target in case 1.1960 is broken. Without a breach, Iím going to close following the market.
    3. I cancel the long pending order. I donít see the sense as 4H chart is weakening and cannot retain sellers, so buying will be risky.

    ---------- Post added at 02:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:07 PM ----------

    On the chart of EUR/USD we can see a symmetrical bearish triangle. It is a sign that the southward movement may continue. But it is not for sure, as confirmation of patterns in this pair is not a 100% factor.
    Intraday I have the following scenarios.
    Currently the pair is trading near the level of 1730. It is not far from it, so it can break it at any moment. If the price breaks this level successfully, then it can go further to 1650-40.
    Furthermore, if the pair goes higher and holds above 1780, then we can expect a rise to 1860-70.
    Today we have a fundamental factor that can influence the dynamics of EURUSD. So, be cautious before the news as the price can be quite volatile and provide false breaks.
    However, if speculators focus on news, then we can see flat trading in the range of 1730--1800-20.
    I think, this scenario can happen. The first sign of it will be a move towards 1730 and a gradual rise from it.
    Hope, it is clear from my screen where to buy and sell.
    I wish you good day!



    ---------- Post added at 02:28 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:18 PM ----------

    Major market participants expect the ECB meeting more than the Fedís meeting. Regarding the Federal Reserve, some expectations have already had impact upon the quotes of EURUSD. Particularly, the expectation of one or even two rate hikes. The bias can be changed only if the Fed officials announce plans to hike the rate three times. However, the latest minutes proved that the Fed rhetoric is likely to be dovish. Besides, if the outlook for the GDP growth rate and inflation improves, it can also provide support to the pair. But I doubt that the CPI reading will be revised upwards, as the private consumption expenditure decreased in the United States. The current acceleration of inflation may be contributed to seasonal changes. However, the latest news release encouraged dollar bulls yesterday.

    I expect that quotes may decline lower after the meeting. What is worse, they can decrease below 1.1720 towards 1.1600 if the hint about a rate hike will be too obvious. However, I donít expect a selloff below 1.1500. As for now, the preferable scenario is to buy the greenback. The number of big players who buy the commodities, gold and the euro decreased significantly for the past two months.Thus, despite the expected actions of the ECB, the US dollar still dominates the market, and the bias can be changed no sooner than in September. Until that the price may be stuck in the range between 1.19-1.16. Along with that, the euro can be much stronger than other major currencies.

    Now let me provide you with the longer-term monitoring of banksí strategies. It seems that the big market makers such as JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley expect the German bonds to decline, so they increase their portfolios in order to sell them afterwards. This factor may boost a rise in the euro after some time, but not now. These three banks expect the euro-dollar pair to be in the range of 1.23-.1.26 which matches my expectations by December. A strong bottom is somewhere near. The price only needs to show it and increase the volume there. It will look like a sideways movement. Once the price breaks a range, the further direction will be determined.

    The banksí interest have shifted slightly towards normalization of monetary policy stances. For now there is no doubt that the ECB will taper the quantitative easing program gradually. Starting from September the monthly purchases volume will be 15 billion euros, and by September purchases will likely be terminated. The question is for how long the ECB will wait until it hikes the rate and what comments Mario Draghi will give in this regard. I think that traders will remain cautious, and the price will unlikely skyrocket. But in the short term a rise is possible ahead and after the ECB meeting.


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  12. #4260
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    The EUR / USD is slowly recovering from the recent collapse. The market is relatively calm, sellers are resting and give the opportunity for buyers to implement a compensation model. In this situation, players can react to the output of current news. Among today's catalysts, mention should be made of the speech of ECB head Draghi, who can try to soften investor sentiment, drawing bright prospects for reforming the eurozone and, of course, publishing data on the number of issued construction permits in the US.
    With the development of correction, the price is able to reach the level of resistance 1.1720 (Murray 0.8), but it should be noted that buyers can begin to curtail their positions already when approaching the base area of ​​the 17th figure (Kijun H4). As for sales, when they resume, the goal for short positions will be the foundation of the 16th figure (Murray -1.8).


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