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Thread: EUR/USD pair discussion

  1. #4131
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    Hi everyone! We see that 1.2341 has been nearly approached. The pair closed the North American session higher. The pair made a minor correction in the Asian trade. Then the price shot up to force sellers out of the market. The most advanced long-term traders moved stop orders below 1.2445. How much have they saved? Are the conditions favorable for further profits? An interesting question Ö

    pasted image 0 (4).jpg

    I also reckoned the same scenario when the North American session closed. I didnít like it. Now Iím going to make my assessment. Judging by longer time frames, I assume further growth of the pair. The ongoing retracement has not reached the downward target, but failed targets are common things. It seems to me that I wasnít careful enough and left my positions open downward. I didnít change stop orders because I decided that everything was going on well and price was on track to reach 1.2250-1.2270. As for longer time frames, things are all right. The price is expected to move northward. Then, when the pair dips, it will be also possible to benefit from this. Speaking about the 4-hour time frame, I have alternative scenarios. The yellow line shows my favorite scenario. The orange line looks like the most realistic one if we recall how the US session finished.

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  3. #4132
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    Hello, everyone! The pair is still moving in the upward channel. Yesterday the upper boundary of the channel was reached at 1.2350, however, it was not broken, and the volumes accompanying yesterday's growth were sufficiently low that generates questions, maybe it is all a scam? So far, I'll be waiting for the decline of the pair to the level of 1.2317, and already there it would be necessary to closely monitor the situation.

    1.jpg

    To judge by clusters, yesterday the biggest volume was gained just during the lower boundary test at 1.23, and everything sounds like a repeated test of this zone before the resumption of full-value purchases. So we are waiting for a decline.


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  4. #4133
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    Now, the time is ripe to open long positions on EUR/USD. Bears will find it difficult to overcome two angles and the crossover level. The pair has been rising for 107 hours. The trend reversal has taken place and the crossover level remains the same.

    Letís carry on analyzing a balance. After 107th hour of growth, the time is over. Now, we can start searching for a good market entry point. Today we expect an intraday reversal point. There are 27 hours between the next two reversal points. In figure terms, 107+11=118. This is an approximate time of reversal. It will take 118 hours to cover the distance from a low to a high. Yesterday, we had three downward target levels. We have traded the first level 57 pips downward. The next ones are 79 and 129. Letís measure 152 pips at the most and 79 pips at the least. We should do the same for the second downward target.

    Again weíve come across a reversal. 107 hours have passed. A balance between a high and a low is 27 pips. The pair grew for 118 hours. First, the pair declined 57 pips. Then, EUR/USD went 79 pips down. On the whole, the pair gained at least 79 pips, having completed the price action. Now we can set the second target.

    In case the next reversal occurs on March 12, a balance suggests a decline for at least 39 hours, 47 hours would be prefect. In point terms, we assume 173 points from a high. Then, we can set three targets. The closest one is 240 points, then Ė 280 points and the double bottom is to follow. Then, I will have to project the next scenario. The decline from the first top took 25 hours. Therefore, we should be on alert from the second top after the 25th bar. Correction of 57 pips will follow to reach the first target level. Finally, 93 pips downward. If growth halts at the third level, we can expect the third target level in a decline, i.e. the double bottom. So, the 25-hour decline is over, but the minimum balance of a decline is 39 hours. The pair hasnít done it. On the plus side, the price slid 173 pips. Thus, the decline is expected until March 14. On March 12 there was a downward reversal as a correction is over. The correction was 57 pips and we set the fourth target of 93 pips (we should keep it in mind).

    Now letís calculate the third target. A decline was 173-25=74 pips. At present, a decline has been exactly the same. The recent balance of growth was 27 hours. It means at least 27/2=14. 27 would be perfect. Plus or minus out of a balance means that we failed to reach a balance. Ow there is a good point to carry on a decline. Where can we expect a halt in the price and time? We should add a part of a balance. The decline from the maximum of 400 pips for 227 hours. Zero balance has been reached, but it was predicted during the price action. As a result, the price surpassed the balance by 30 pips for 14 hours. Now a decline should be balanced for the price to go upward. There are several scenarios. The price can reach a double bottom and reverse that will be a perfect balance. The second scenario is that the first and second decline can reach a balance. We can try to make a forecast, but we can just wait and see where the price will go. If both the price and time come up as predicted, we can expect a reversal at least for a while. If the price falls short of expectations and the time is not over yet, we expect a further balance.
    Now Iíd like to predict a further move. If a reversal happens on March 14, we will have a perfect balance of growth. 91 hours were needed before the first top and 188 hours passed before the second one. The same time is needed for a decline. As for the price change, it should move 200 pips from a high to a low. From the local high we see a double bottom + a balance in time and price. Perfect. However, things are not always develop in a perfect way. Thatís why we donít rule out that a decline could be 200 pips. In this case, a balance is highly probable. Growth up to the first top is 91 hours. We lack 91 pips up to the low plus we have to work out a balance of decline in 200 pips. The third scenario is the least probable, but it is early to rule it out (I expected it yesterday). The first decline was for 227 hours. Thus, if the second decline is 227 pips, the price can again strike a balance. At this very point, we have several balances amassed. Correctional growth up to the first top is 91 hours and a decline could be also 91 hours. From the second top we could have 64 hours and we lack 64 hours to reach the low. According to Gannís theory, tolerance in balances could be up to 4 units like in Gannís cycles. Thatís why we admit tolerance from 1 up to 4 pips on the chart. In time terms, there is also tolerance.

    The first decline from an annual high lasted for 294 hours and growth came in at 291 pips. In the third scenario, we admit tolerance of 4 hours. So, we donít rule out this scenario and we need just some time to wait for the second bottom. For me, the first scenario is a priority, i.e. a decline by 291 pips and 91 hours from the top from March 8. In this case, the price can refresh the second top of today though this move is not welcome as yesterday/s growth will be out of balance.

    Now let me draw a conclusion. We always know a balance in advance. We can predict 4 variants of a price move. So, to choose a scenario we need experience or intuition (as you like). We will recognize the right scenario immediately. Itís the same when we look back on the history and we donít doubt and recognize a certain balance or a certain cycle, etc in the past. In the same manner, we see the price reach a balance. In rare cases the price makes a reversal, failing to strike a balance. If we trade according to Gannís method, we should trade following a trend and donít just catch correction. Then, we wonít face any problems because we donít reach a balance.

    EURUSDH1.jpg

  5. #4134
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    Hello, dear traders! The overflow of the main liquidity on futures runs in a rather narrow range just at the weighted average price of March. This indicates that there won't be extreme volatility before the Fed meeting: within +/- 2 month fluctuation of VWAP (i.e. on the forex range of 2230-2430 from the current 2330). And they are likely to go to one side with a possible return to current prices. But this is all from the area of wild speculation. [B] Open interest of March declined by 33111 to 402 thousand, one of June increased by 38470 to 152 thousand. It is interesting that on short and low liquid futures of May OI grew by 410 contracts, but given that this growth is 35% , then it is worth paying attention to it. The overflow with account of Friday occurs in the range of 2366-2433 (FX 2276-2343). Monday worked mostly above the 24th on the futures. There is still more liquidity and open interest on the March futures, but I personally do not operate it. Forward between the forex and June futures is 90 points. Current range of the June futures: 2366-2433 (FX 2276-2343). Resistance on the June and March futures: 2487-2517 (FX 2397-2427). Support 1 on June and the core on the March futures: 2279-2326 (FX 2189-2236). Support 2 on the June one, i.e. the lower boundary of the cost zone of the June futures: 2178-2225 (FX 2088-2135). What conclusions? No, so far, no conclusions. On the one hand, the new futures is loaded high - above the 24th. But not very actively. It gives the impression that we can go to the area of 21-22th figures on the futures, i.e. almost on the figure below on Forex. It is there it's better to look for buyers. And we'll see soon how things go. So, fellow traders, take care of your nerves and deposits.

    b.jpg

  6. #4135
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    Hello! Today I've read about Trump and his outrage regarding the dismissal of the Secretary of State. That is no way to do so, in an unmanly way, and not in a presidential way. If I were the US Senate, I would kick him out. I don't like him ... The main US stock indices demonstrate a negative trend in the last hour of trading session: Most components of the DOW index are in the red (23 of 30) .The leader of growth is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH, + 1.68%.). The outsider is General Electric Company (GE, -4.47%). All sectors of the S&P are in the red. The sharpest decrease was demonstrated by the technological sector (-1.3%) - The fund is in shock!

    41.jpg

    On H4, the pair is still in the downward channel within the timeframe. Technically, I do not see threats to the dollar and the continuation of growth can only cause a greater accumulation of positions for sales. None of the parties has not taken decisive steps yet, although they've come close, with an attempt of breakdown, to the psychological level of 1.24. The next serious step may be the update of the last week high of 1.2445 with the subsequent consolidation.

    2.jpg

    The daily chart more clearly explains today's price growth. In recent days, a doji has been received confirming the intentions of growing. Ignoring such a signal serves as another lesson for those who have not learned it. Sometime tomorrow, I expect a growth, but without updating the high of 1.2445, otherwise the odds for a decrease are getting worse, that will allow buyers to push the pair further into the 25th figure.

    2..jpg

    While the growth is not over, at least there are no signs of its ending. Perhaps tomorrow we will get a full turn on Draghi's speech, but it's still far away. There's the Asian session ahead, which can also please its movement. I remain in sales, it's too late to buy, and it's not enough to cover, because the price has also come to the north. Let's look at the reaction to Draghi's speech. I wish everyone success in trading.

  7. #4136
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    On a smaller timeframe, we see how the demand is absorbing the offer, so the most profitable purchases for today will be in the price mark area of 1.2367 (from the demand price to the next offer). The American market closes strongly, on highs, therefore I do not exclude the growth of the instrument from the current positions... The Americans set the clock this weekend, and the US market closed more than an hour ago. As for the pair, then it turned out that I have a pullback from the southern movement, as well as the main downward movement in priority. So far, I don't want to look deeply after such a rise, for now, I think the target is below the area of 1.2295-1.2332. But the north will begin if the price consolidates above 1.2420, then the north will be with targets at 1.25. But it is definitely necessary to see how the Asians will drive the pair. The Americans left on the highs, this is a hint to the Asian markets that they want to push further north.

  8. #4137
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    The Greenwich Mean Time is 23:55. It means we should add 3 hours to find out time in Moscow, Minsk, and the CIS. Hi ladies and gentlemen and all forum participants! I suggest discussing whatís going on with the pound sterling. Letís look at the poundís values against all currencies on March 10, i.e. at the weekend. The pound/dollar pair was valued at 1.4738. The currency pair was trading at the same price on May 26, 2016. That day the pair hit an intraday high of 1.47378. Remarkably, the market was like that a month before the Brexit referendum. Letís fancy the cable will be able to reach the same level this May Ö

    Interesting developments are now unfolding in the market. If the market does not spring a surprise and the upward trend does not reverse abruptly, Iíd like to see the EUR/USD pair at 1.2493-1.2541. It would be better refresh a high from February 16 with the target level of 1.2589. The trading sentiment on the euro is going long on the dip at 1.2351. Like the euro, the pound sterling is also set for the upward trend with the following target levels: 1.4048-1.4093 and even better at 1.4150. I expect a decline to 1.3914 and then back northward.

    However, things can be unpredictable on Forex. I wish the euro and the pound trade only northward in the nearest week! For the EUR/USD pair I planned 1.2286-1.2406-1.2131. Sell orders from 1.2406 brought me 100 pips. After expiration time, I detected the buying sentiment in the market. Why not to buy?

    On Friday, I was selling the Canadian dollar aiming to breach TST levels that brought me 60 pips. Yesterday, we saw a strong breach of TST levels at 1.2871. I expected 50% retracement from Tuesdayís high which was 1.2926. This hasnít happened yet. From my experience, when the TST level is breached, a price can jump 300-500 pips. I would like to recommend something to those who trade according to the TST levels. Donít be in a hurry to sell the loonie. It could find solid support from a steady oil rally. A test of the breached TST level might take 21-42 days. I wish everyone fat profits!

  9. #4138
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    We see two curves which are almost identical. It indicates that the forces are similar and the price is most likely to hang out between them. The curves are visible but hanging out between them is no joy. I think we are going to take the old debt at 2467. Everything above is pure science fiction and we do not follow the path. As for the rest, first, I'm waiting on the balance of 2351, second, the execution of the day and week highs and then ... we'll see. At least, this is the most suitable way. And we'll see how it goes, Trump or May may try something again, and mess up everything.

    123.jpg

  10. #4139
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    Hello, fellow speculators! The opening bell has already rung, which means itís time to start working.
    The open interest data was revealed. Yesterday, 43,886 March futures were closed and 72,716 June futures were opened. In total, 128,336 June contracts were traded, with 41,192 contracts, a third, seen in platforms. The remaining two thirds are dealers that provide us with liquidity.
    Liquidity placement took place from 8 to 12 in Chicago, which is clearly seen on H4. Main activity was in the ranges of 2451-2473 (FX2361-2383) and 2484-2491 (FX2394-2401). These are most liquid ranges for the June contracts on H4. There, the smartest market players traded according to the sell delta (I hope these were not arbitrage transactions, otherwise I will have to reconsider my positions). There is the delta buyer at the level of 2472 (FX 2382), below which the price does not go. This is quite suspicious.

    5.jpg

    Iíve placed my sales at 2452-2454 (FX 2362-2364), 2465-2468 (FX2375-2378) и 2484-2487 (FX 2394-2397).
    For now, the price is fluctuating at reached highs. The bullish domination is obvious on a weekly basis. What confuses me is that purchases were opened in the same range, in which they were opened on the March futures. Another thing that confuses me is that the high is at 2570 on the Globex, while we are standing at the 2500 levels. If the price goes higher by 100 pips (up to the 2500 levels on Forex), all sell developments well be put aside. For now, I believe that the price is controlled by short-term buyers and soon mid-term sellers will come as it is reflected in delta and volume.


    7.jpg

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  12. #4140
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    Well, we are in the channel with two perspectives. The stumbling block for the bulls is the resistance level of 1.2530 - this is the level of the day's divergence. The local resistance of 1.2450, which is worked out 2 times, is also a barrier for the channel development. Therefore, we can go to the support at 1.2150 from two positions, either from 1.2450 or from 1.2530. Since there is little time left before the resistance along the channel at the 1.2530 point, the drop option from 1.255 has a higher priority. Also I do not exclude the middle variant when the price will break between 1.245 and 1.2530, because the divergence level is still not closed. But in any case, we are waiting for the downward segment of the tunnel 1.2530-1.2150.

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