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Thread: Politics and the economy.
  1. #101
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    2019: Imo monarchs reaffirm support for Buhari

    The monarchs had, at Isiala Mbano in April last year, endorsed the president for a second term in office.

    However, reaffirming their support in an interview with our correspondent, the traditional ruler of Ihim community in Imo State, His Royal Majesty, Eze Oliver Ohanwe, Gburugburu I, said that their reasons for endorsing Buhari had not changed.

    Ohanwe said that apart from the president’s dedicated service to the nation, his commitment to ensure common good for all and his unwavering drive for the peace, unity and progress of the country, Buhari was the only president that could ensure the emergence of Igbo president in 2023.

    He said: “We said it before and we are saying it again, Buhari is our choice for 2019 election. He is the only one that can ensure that an Igbo man becomes a president of Nigeria. We are prepared to vote for him on Saturday.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by facetoface View Post
    The monarchs had, at Isiala Mbano in April last year, endorsed the president for a second term in office.

    However, reaffirming their support in an interview with our correspondent, the traditional ruler of Ihim community in Imo State, His Royal Majesty, Eze Oliver Ohanwe, Gburugburu I, said that their reasons for endorsing Buhari had not changed.

    Ohanwe said that apart from the president’s dedicated service to the nation, his commitment to ensure common good for all and his unwavering drive for the peace, unity and progress of the country, Buhari was the only president that could ensure the emergence of Igbo president in 2023.

    He said: “We said it before and we are saying it again, Buhari is our choice for 2019 election. He is the only one that can ensure that an Igbo man becomes a president of Nigeria. We are prepared to vote for him on Saturday.”
    Nigerian People Choose State Governors

    Nigerian voters returned to polling stations on Saturday (03/09/2019) yesterday to elect state governors.

    The election was held, two weeks after Muhammadu Buhari, was re-elected president for a second term, after the election process had been postponed. The vote was held to elect 29 of 36 governors in Nigeria, which are the biggest oil producers in Africa and the largest economic power on the continent.

    Many of these states control budgets more than small countries. Previous elections were marred by violence, including shootings and armed groups who seized the ballot boxes. Some of the results of the gubernatorial election are expected to be known today, Sunday (03/10/2019).

    Buhari of All Progressive Congress (APC) defeated Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) in the presidential election last month, gaining 15.2 million votes compared to 11.3 million. It is estimated that 35.6 percent of voters gave their voting rights.

  4. #103
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    The U.K. pound surged during the latter stages of the New York session, as the U.K. prime minister flew off to Strasbourg to meet with the E.U. Brexit negotiating team. Unfounded rumours had circulated around Westminster during Monday afternoon, that the E.U. had finally relented and were prepared to deliver a compromise, ensuring that the problematic backstop issue was declared as temporary and not permanent. The U.K. government was scheduled to make an announcement at 10:00pm U.K. time on Monday 11th March. At 20:00pm U.K. time GBP/USD traded at 1.313, up 0.97% on the day. Initially falling through S1, price reversed direction as cable whipsawed in a wide range, taking out the second level of resistance R2, towards the latter stages of the New York trading session. Sterling pairs experienced similar price action throughout the day’s sessions; whipsawing in wide ranges, initially bearish, to then change direction, registering significant gains. Once news had been broadcast from Strasbourg; that some extra legal clarification had been wrapped around the withdrawal agreement, at 23:20pm U.K. time the daily GPB/USD rise reached 1.71%, as price breached R3. On Tuesday evening, the U.K. House of Commons is still set to hold the second meaningful vote on the withdrawal agreement, FX traders can therefore possibly expect more of the same, intense, whipsawing action, as the day’s Brexit developments unfold.

    Tuesday is an extremely busy day for U.K. high impact calendar news. At 9:30am U.K. time a raft of data will be published by the U.K. stats agency, the ONS. The latest monthly GDP growth figure for January will be broadcast, expected to come in at 0.20% according to Reuters, with Q4 2018 forecast to come in at 0.20%. At the same time the latest U.K. data on: manufacturing, construction and industrial performance will be published. Monthly (for January) improvements are predicted, but year on year the series of figures for production and output are forecast to remain negative. This raft of ONS publications, coming on the day when the U.K. Parliament is due to take another critical Brexit vote, could result in sterling experiencing intense speculation, during the day’s trading sessions. At 12:30pm U.K. time on Tuesday, before New York opens, the latest CPI data for the USA economy will be published, the Reuters forecast is for the rate to be held at 1.6% YoY. The latest weekly earnings rise will be revealed for February (year on year), which is expected to come in close to the January rate, at 1.90%. Both the CPI and the latest wage data, always has the propensity to move the value of USD, particularly if the figure misses, or beats forecast. Therefore, FX traders who specialise in USD, should be prepared for these releases. Late evening on Tuesday, as the Sydney session opens and the Asian session awaits, the value of yen could come under increasing focus, as the latest January machine orders data for Japan are published. Month on month, the orders are forecast to fall by -1.5%, with the year on year fall forecast to accelerate to -2.10%. With the Japanese economy under scrutiny, due to recent poor key metrics and the neighbouring Chinese economy suffering, analysts could downgrade the value of yen, if the data relating to factory performance, misses the economists’ targets.

  5. #104
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    Estimated release of poor US GDP may increase EURUSD

    EUR / USD continues to retrace sharp buying after a meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) as US data shows an economic slowdown, and exchange rates can make a bigger rebound in the coming days because it starts a series of highest highs. & low. EUR / USD extended gains from earlier this week as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly narrowed to 1.5% from 1.6% per year in January, with the core inflation rate highlighting the same dynamics as the indicator falling to 2 , 1% from 2.2% during the same period.

    Looking ahead, the update of the US Durable Goods Order report may also produce a bearish reaction in the US dollar as demand for large quantities of goods is expected to contract 0.4% in February, while Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders do not include Aircraft, proxies for business investment, projected to decline 0.2% after holding flat in the previous month.

    As a result, the Fed Atlanta GDP forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 was 0.2 percent on March 11, down from 0.5 percent on March 8, 'and the Federal Open Market Committee ( The FOMC) can continue to turn the guideline forward on the next interest rate decision on March 20 because 'some risks to the downside have increased, including the possibility of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in global economic growth, especially in China and Europe, reduced fiscal policy stimulus, or further tightening of financial market conditions. '

    It seems the FOMC is trying to leave the hiking cycle because the central bank prepares to reduce $ 50 billion / month in quantitative tightening (QT), with Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating that 'Committees can now evaluate the timing and the right approach to the end of balance sheet runoff' because Fed officials lower estimates they are for growth and inflation. It remains to be seen whether there will be further adjustments to the Summary of Economic Projection (SEP) because the previous update still shows long-term interest rates from 2.75% to 3.00%, and material changes expected by Fed estimates to influence short-term prospects for US dollar because the central bank dropped guidelines for hawkish advances in monetary policy.
    [10:17, 3/13/2019] Trader Ardi: CPI Supports Fixed Interest Potential, US Dollar Depressed

    The US dollar partially trimmed gains against the Japanese yen and extended its losses against the euro after the US consumer price index showed that inflation remained low despite a tight labor market, supporting the discourse of unchanging Federal Reserve interest rates.

    The US consumer price index rose for the first time in four months in February, but the rate of increase was moderate, resulting in the smallest annual increase in almost 2? year. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against its six rivals, fell and ended down 0.165 percent at 96.96.

    The euro ended up 0.38 percent against the US dollar, with prices last at $ 1.1287 when Tuesday's session was closed. Against the Japanese yen, the US dollar strengthened 0.13 percent at 111.33 yen, trimming previous gains.

    Like the US dollar, the yen also acts as a safe-haven investment in times of economic and political volatility. When the greenback rises in value, the amount of yen needed to buy one US dollar increases.

    The Fed cited a lack of inflationary pressure as one reason why it was comfortable to stop the cycle of rising interest rates. The US central bank uses the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index to track inflation against its 2 percent target. But the CPI provides insight into the state of US inflation.

    The US Department of Labor reported on Tuesday that the consumer price index rose 0.2 percent, lifted by increases in food, gasoline and rental costs.

    The CPI has not changed for three consecutive months. Excluding volatile food and energy components, CPI edged up 0.1 percent, the smallest increase since August 2018.

    In the 12 months to February, core CPI rose 2.1 percent. Core CPI has increased by 2.2 percent for three consecutive months on an annual basis. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected core CPI and CPI to rise 0.2 percent in February.

    The slowdown in domestic and global growth keeps inflation under control even though a tight labor market raises wages. Annual wage growth jumped 3.4 percent in February, the biggest increase since April 2009, from 3.1 percent in January.

    The latest news regarding Brexit, namely the rejection of the British Parliament on the draft Brexit agreement proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May, can increase uncertainty over Britain's fate.

    Britain slid into new unpredictable political territory when the country's parliament, for the second time, rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's plan to leave the European Union, leaving her authority in pieces and the country apparently without steering just 17 days before her scheduled departure from the block.

  6. #105
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    The durable goods data for the USA beat the forecasts, suggesting that USA businesses and consumers are prepared to invest in expensive household items and business equipment. The durables reading came in at 0.40% for the month of January, beating the expectation of -0.40%. Inflation data, specific to business, also proved to be bullish for USA equities; PPI came in at 2.50% year on year up to February, falling from 2.60%. Construction spending beat the Reuters forecast; coming in at 1.3% month on month up to January, improving from the -0.80% figure registered in December. Mortgage applications rising by 2.30% up to March 8th, also added to the overall economic optimism, leading to the risk on appetite developing in USA equity markets. USD/CHF traded down -0.44% at 1.003. USD/JPY traded down 0.05%, at 111.2. The ongoing saga of Brexit entered a new chapter of incredulity and confusion during Wednesday, as the U.K. parliament voted to prevent a no deal Brexit, although if no withdrawal agreement is reached, a no deal Brexit will in fact occur by default. On Thursday MPs will vote to ask the E.U. for an extension to delay the implementation of A50, scheduled to come into effect from March 29th. However, despite the U.K. inching towards avoiding a no deal exit, the E.U. have made it clear that the U.K. has had its second chance, it won’t obtain a third chance. Moreover, the E.U. have stated that no extension will be granted for more wasted time; there must be a definitive purpose for an extension to be granted, such as; a referendum or general election. Despite the deadlock and impasse still remaining in place, FX analysts and traders bid up the value of sterling during Wednesday’s sessions, in what appeared to be a relief rally; markets are pricing GBP pairs on the hope that the U.K. will avoid the no deal crash out.

    GPB/USD rallied to an approximate four month high, at 22:30pm price had breached R2 and traded up 1.86% on the day, at 1.331. EUR/GBP fell to a level not witnessed since May 2017, plunging by -1.51%, to below the 0.850 handle. U.K. GDP growth to 1.2% for 2019. He claimed to have generated a surplus of circa £28b to spend this fiscal year, with little of it earmarked for spending on social services. At 22:40pm EUR/USD traded up 0.44% at 1.133, as the euro made gains versus several peers during the day’s sessions, with the exception of the significant fall suffered versus the U.K. pound. The Eurozone industrial production figure beat the forecast, coming in at 1.40% for January, rising from -0.90% in December. On Thursday the latest German CPI data will be revealed, the forecast is for a reading of 1.60% year on year up to February, with the monthly figure expected to come in at 0.50%. Producer import and export prices for the Swiss economy will also be published early morning European time, data which could impact on the value of EUR and CHF. A raft of data relating to the export and import prices for the USA, both monthly and yearly, will be published. Import prices are forecast to have risen in February, whilst exports prices are expected to show a fall. New home sales for January in the USA are predicted to have fallen back to 0.30% growth, from the 3.70% rise in December. The initial and continuous jobless claims data will also be published, there is no expectation for any change in the recently unemployed data, significant enough to cause an impact on the value of USD.

  7. #106
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    US: DOVISH Sentiment Against FED RATE Reappears For This Week

    In the past few days, expectations have emerged on the market that The Federal Reserves (The Fed) will hold the benchmark interest rate at this week's meeting.

    It is even possible that Jerome 'Jay' Powell and colleagues lowered the Federal Funds Rate, although not in the near future.

    The reason, signs of economic slowdown Uncle Sam's country increasingly visible. Last weekend, the New York region manufacturing activity index data showed a significant slowdown.

    The preliminary reading in March was 3.7, down from February at 8.8, and the lowest since May 2017. After the data release, the yield on US government bonds was 10 years tenor, which is usually the indicator of the increase in interest rates The Fed, moving down to 2.58%. The yield was the lowest since 4 January.

    These factors made the US dollar depressed, even though it entered the European session of trade the pressure was still not strong. Market participants may still be cautious about addressing the situation.

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  9. #107
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    PM May wants to bring MV3 ASAP

    British Prime Minister Theresa May's spokesman recently crossed the wires in the last minutes saying that the PM wanted to bring the third meaningful vote on the Brexit deal as soon as possible and reiterated that it was up to the speaker to determine whether or not they came up with something substantially different for a new vote.

    Key quotes (via Reuters)

    * PM spoke to Juncker on phone about letter asking for delay.

    * Brexit extension is best way to see deal ratified.

    * Clear PM’s firm belief that long extension not right way to go.

    * No plans to extend implementation phase.

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