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Thread: Technical and Fundamental Analysis

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    Technical and Fundamental Analysis

    Technical analysis
    A Technical Analysis is what one uses to attempt to predict future price movements, based on past time framed analysis and the reading / understanding of graphics. Although within a Technical Analysis various thought patterns exist, generally all are based on historical graphics of a currency. As long as one realizes the various differences of Fundamental and Technical Analysis, both can be used to parallel one another, even though both may present different conclusions.
    • Fundamental Analysis
    The study of specific factors, such as wars, discoveries, and changes in Government policies, which influence supply and demand, and consequently prices in the market place. Fundamental analysis comprises the examination of macroeconomic indicators, asset markets and political considerations when evaluating a nation´s currency in terms of another. Macroeconomic indicators include figures such as growth rates; as measured by Gross Domestic Product, interest rates, inflation, unemployment, money supply, foreign exchange reserves and productivity. Asset markets comprise stocks, bonds and real estate. Political considerations impact the level of confidence in a nation´s government, the climate of stability and level of certainty. Sometimes governments stand in the way of market forces impacting their currencies, and hence, intervene to keep currencies from deviating markedly from undesired levels. Currency interventions are conducted by central banks and usually have a notable, albeit a temporary impact on FX markets. A central bank could undertake unilateral purchases/sales of its currency against another currency; or engage in concerted intervention in which it collaborates with other central banks for a much more pronounced effect. Alternatively, some countries can manage to move their currencies, merely by hinting, or threatening to intervene.

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    GBP/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for June 15, 2011

    The GBP/USD fluctuated heavily on Tuesday, especially with the dollar holding weak and the inflation figures that added to the volatility in the
    market.
    U.K. inflation held at its highest since October 2008 at 4.5% in May while core inflation dropped. The steady inflation was marginally expected
    stripping the heavy effect and was rather better than the expected continuation of rising pressures.
    The dollar remained week on the relief rally seen in the market which prompted sterling gains amid the volatility and mixed sentiment in the
    market.
    The overall outlook has not yet changed and growth continues to find more obstacles domestically in the United Kingdom and globally and the BoE are
    still caught between a rock and a hard place between rising inflation and slowing growth.
    On Wednesday the volatility will extend for the pair with the heavy data queued from both nations. We see the likelihood for downside pressure on
    sterling with the expected softness in the labor market as the recovery continues to struggle at a very slow pace.
    Unemployment data from the British economy will be out at 08:30 GMT, where ILO unemployment for the three months ended April will linger at 7.7%
    while jobless claims will ease to 6.5 thousands in May after 12.4 thousand in April as for the Claimant Count rate it is expected steady at 4.6%.
    From the United States the CPI index for May is due at 12:30 GMT and expected with 0.1% rise following 0.4% and at 3.3% on the year from 3.2%. The
    Core CPI is expected with 0.2% in line with the previous gain and at 1.4% on the year following 1.3%.
    At the same time the Empire Manufacturing Index is due for June and expected to have ticked higher to 13 from 11.8.
    At 13:00 GMT, the Total TIC flows for April are due; where in March the total net TIC flow rose $116.0 billion and the Net long TIC flows rose
    $24.0 billion and expected with further rise in April to $35.0 billion.
    At 13:15 GMT, the Industrial Production for May is expected to have increased by 0.3% after a flat reading in April; Capacity Utilization is
    expected at 77.0% from 76.9%.

    http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story.php?id=1413943

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    Insights of a Fundamental Analyst
    UK Growth – Where?


    Mon, Jun 27 2011, 05:53 GMT
    GDP growth in Q1 is likely to be confirmed at a disappointing 0.5% q/q, thereby indicating that the economy only flat-lined over the previous 2 quarters combined.
    The overall tone of the latest data and surveys is likely to point to an economy continuing to find life difficult in Q2.We expect national accounts data out Tuesday to confirm that GDP grew a disappointing 0.5% q/q, thereby only reversing the 0.5% GDP contraction suffered in 4Q10.
    Year-on-year growth is also seen unrevised at 1.8% in Q1, which would be up from 1.5% in 4Q10 but down from 2.5% in 3Q10. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the national accounts data will show revisions for 2009 and 2010, so there is the potential for significant changes.

    The current breakdown of the GDP data shows growth was entirely dependent on a huge contribution from net trade as exports jumped and imports fell. This was partly influenced by a correction after trade patterns were distorted in 4Q10 by the bad weather (it appeared to hit exports more than imports), although there was clearly an underlying improvement in the UK's trade performance in the first quarter. Meanwhile, domestic demand contracted appreciably in the first quarter as consumer spending fell 0.6% q/q and business investment slumped 7.1% q/q.

    On the output side of the economy, growth was dragged down in Q1 by a sharp drop in construction output, which still seems at odds with the relatively decent-looking surveys during the period. Utilities output was also a drag. On a more positive note, the services sector saw a decent if unspectacular bounce in growth after contracting in Q4 and manufacturing output was resilient. One important piece of information that will come with the new national accounts release is what happened to households' real disposable income and the savings ratio in Q1? Was the sharp drop in consumer spending the consequence of another marked fall in real disposable income, the result of worried consumers looking to save more, or a combination of the two?

    The muted Q1 rebound in GDP growth and a recent flurry of disappointing data and surveys reinforce belief that growth will be limited going forward as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, some temporary growth drivers wane (notably restocking) and consumers limit their spending in the face of serious headwinds, most notably the major squeeze on their purchasing power. In addition, slowing global growth threatens to weigh down on UK exports, while the heightened Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is an ongoing threat to growth prospects. Specifically, we project GDP growth to be ‘limited’ to around 0.4% q/q through the second–fourth quarters of 2011, and there is a very real risk that growth could be softer still in Q2. We see overall GDP growth at ‘only’ 1.4% in 2011.

    The GfK/NOP consumer confidence index (overnight Wednesday–Thursday) is forecasted to show that sentiment slipped after a surprisingly sharp spike in May. We suspect that consumers' spirits were lifted in May by a recent series of public holidays, a lingering "feel-good" factor following the royal wedding in late April, and some good weather.A flurry of recent disappointing economic data and surveys—not to mention wetter and colder weather—is likely to have dampened consumers' spirits in June. Specifically, we expect the consumer confidence index to have relapsed to -24 in June after spiking to a 5-month high of -21 in May from a 26-month low of -31 in April. It should be noted that despite jumping in May, consumer confidence was still very low compared with long-term norms as the long-term average for the index is -8. We expect the survey to show that consumers' views of the economy deteriorated appreciably in June.

    The manufacturing PMI (PMI; Friday) is expected to show that the sector saw activity improving ‘marginally’ in June after recently losing appreciable momentum from the peak levels seen early on in 2011 and in 2H10. Specifically, we forecast the PMI to have edged up to 52.5 in June after falling to a 20-month low of 52.1 in May from 54.4 in April and a record (1992) high of 61.7 in January. This would point to relatively modest expansion, given that a reading of 50.0 indicates unchanged activity. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has already released its industrial trends survey for June, which showed a welcome pickup in orders but companies' production expectations for the next three months falling to a 6-month low.

    The overall impression remains that manufacturers are now finding life more challenging as stock rebuilding wanes and tighter fiscal policy weighs down domestic demand. There are also signs that slower global growth is dampening export orders.
    Meanwhile, high oil prices and other elevated input costs have been causing problems for manufacturers by substantially squeezing their margins and putting pressure on them to raise prices and risk losing business.In addition, events in Japan are causing problems for some manufacturing sectors through causing supply-chain disruptions. Indeed, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported that UK car output fell 4.9% m/m in May after a drop of 12.2% in April as production of vehicles and engines was hit by shortages in parts coming from Japan

    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...-2/2011/06/27/

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    Mon, Jun 27 2011, 11:15 GMT

    Volatile Markets

    Greece's debt saga continues to cause nervousness among the marketparticipants for another week. Fears from a possible debt restructuringor a default is keeping sentiment on a razor's edge.

    Volatility may persist this week as the Greek government is set tovote on a 78 billion euro austerity package in the next few days inorder to receive the fifth installment of last year's 110-billlion-euroaid package and a second bailout.

    The Asian stocks fell sharply today while the European indexesfluctuated as caution throughout the broad markets became evident,especially since investors await the release of the U.S. consumerspending.

    Lately the U.S. economic data has done investors no favors, thedurable goods came below estimates on Friday, while the consumerspending today could probably rise in May at the slowest pace in almosta year.

    "Persistent high unemployment, a weak housing market, high fuelprices and inflation all put pressure on consumers", said president andchief executive officer of Walgreen, Greg Wasson.

    Lackluster economic data continues to come from Europe, U.K., andthe United States. This could lead investors to believe that acontraction of the economic recovery is on its way, if not recession.

    While Europe will be light with data today, the safe heaven dollarfell considerably this morning, while gold fell below the $1500.00 perounce. However some optimism on Greece's vote managed to sustain theeuro.

    The single currency is consolidating around the 1.4200 levelalthough this morning the euro recorded the lowest of 1.4101, but asthe German Chancellor Angela Merkel the euro area intact, the eurofound some backing.

    The pound moved in a euro centric mode today consolidating aroundthe 1.5975 as of this writing although this morning it fell to thelowest 1.5911. The yen weakened trading above the 80.70 level.

    The lost the sustain they enjoyed from speculators. Gold is tradingaround the $1500.00 per ounce level, while oil continues to be underpressures therefore is trading around the $90.50 per barrel level.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...ts/2011/06/27/

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    Forex News – Fears Reemerging
    Tue, Jul 5 2011, 11:43 GMT

    As full volume returned to the Forex and commodity markets today since trading was thin yesterday because of the Independence Day holiday in the U.S., fears over the global economic outlook reemerged.

    The global economic picture is now not only affected negatively by Europe's debt crisis and the slowing U.S. economy, but also by the questions about China’s prospects for growth since it’s the world's third biggest economy.

    A possible slowdown of China's economic growth could have a negative impact on the global recovery. Moody's warned about China’s bad loans that are posing a threat and the problem is being underestimated by Chinese officials.

    Concerns over the European debt crisis also resurfaced after the Standard and Poor’s said it will consider a French plan to rollover Greek debt as a “selective default”, which weighed down on the Euro as caution prevailed.

    Risk aversion may persist as later this week the ECB will hold their monetary policy meeting on Thursday while on Friday the U.S. will release its important non-farm employment change report.

    Commodities are also under the microscope. Gold remains below the $1500.00 an ounce while oil is affected by the negative longer term economic outlooks and is almost unchanged since yesterday trading around the $95.00 level.

    The euro fell today and as of this writing is trading around the 1.4475 level since both Europe and Germany release a disappointing PMI services report for June while the dollar index extended its gains trading around the 74.50 level.

    However the British pound managed to extend its morning gains since the economy released a better than expected PMI services report, and now is trading around the 1.6120 level.

    The Australian dollar fell against the dollar today after the RBA left the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, while signaling that economic growth in 2011 won’t be as strong as forecasted earlier.

    Today Europe also released a disappointing retail sales report, while the U.S. will be releasing later in the day its factory orders report. However the focus will continue to be on the political developments within Europe and Greece.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...ts/2011/07/05/

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    Combnation of both may give you the best results, but tecnicale analysis is more suitable for trade you cant do trade successfully without Ta fundamental analysis is more can not be profitable.

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    Technical analysis is good. Fundamental analysis is also good.But a successful trader will make use of both of them to develop his strategy as well as modify his strategy.For instance, if your technical analysis says EURUSD is upwards this week. and unfortunately, ECB cuts interest rate from 1.00% to 0.75%(fundamental),within the week, you need not be told that the trend will change downward due to that 0.25% decrease.So use both TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Alok View Post
    Technical analysis
    A Technical Analysis is what one uses to attempt to predict future price movements, based on past time framed analysis and the reading / understanding of graphics. Although within a Technical Analysis various thought patterns exist, generally all are based on historical graphics of a currency. As long as one realizes the various differences of Fundamental and Technical Analysis, both can be used to parallel one another, even though both may present different conclusions.
    • Fundamental Analysis
    The study of specific factors, such as wars, discoveries, and changes in Government policies, which influence supply and demand, and consequently prices in the market place. Fundamental analysis comprises the examination of macroeconomic indicators, asset markets and political considerations when evaluating a nation´s currency in terms of another. Macroeconomic indicators include figures such as growth rates; as measured by Gross Domestic Product, interest rates, inflation, unemployment, money supply, foreign exchange reserves and productivity. Asset markets comprise stocks, bonds and real estate. Political considerations impact the level of confidence in a nation´s government, the climate of stability and level of certainty. Sometimes governments stand in the way of market forces impacting their currencies, and hence, intervene to keep currencies from deviating markedly from undesired levels. Currency interventions are conducted by central banks and usually have a notable, albeit a temporary impact on FX markets. A central bank could undertake unilateral purchases/sales of its currency against another currency; or engage in concerted intervention in which it collaborates with other central banks for a much more pronounced effect. Alternatively, some countries can manage to move their currencies, merely by hinting, or threatening to intervene.
    There are many trading tools available for Forex traders to trade with in forex market like candlesticks and trend lines, technical analysis and trading news etc. In addition to these trading tools fundamental analysis and fundamental trading strategies form the broad base of forex trading. Fundamental analysis and trading strategies are way too important and they play an equal important role whether you are trading with the help of some software program or personally.

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    The dollar strengthened on all fronts at a rapid pace now against the European currencies.
    The dollar strength is felt especially against the euro which is involved into the financial meltdown in Europe and could not assert itself over 1.23 in the last evening.
    Thus, the euro is heading towards its lowest reading in 2 years, which is 1.2161 for the moment. Technically, the daily chart below provides a picture of bearish inverted flag whose goal is at the 1.2125 area.
    The British pound remains slightly firmer despite downside movement it also does not lose its upward trend in 4 hours charts. Overcoming of the 1.57 might even give you a new bullish, yet it depends on the progress of the overall market.
    The situation is different within the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. The Aussie managed to arrive in the last hours to 1.0442 from 1 May. The downward correction shown now could become a figure of below trend, and find the area of �‹�‹1.05 during the American session.
    In the case of the Loonie, the strength of oil in recent days has given a new bullish move, and is close to parity against the dollar. This possibility would be altered to break 1.0110 where it spends a trend line in the short term charts, and whose breakdown will change the direction of the crossing.

    As for Europe, the problems of the high costs of Spain debt, the mess generated by leaders of the troubled countries together with their statements, releases, gossips and comments only managed to blur the image and what is worse, they added more pessimism and distrust in the future. The euro, one of the most powerful currencies until now, wanders in the direction of bassist and without conviction as a result of this situation.

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    Technological research is usually beneficial. Standard research is additionally beneficial. Although a very good broker will probably employ both equally advisors in order to develop his or her approach together with transform his or her approach. In particular, but if your technological research states that EURUSD is usually way up that full week. in addition to sad to say, ECB pieces monthly interest by 1. 00% to help 0. 75%(fundamental), in the full week, you would like definitely not find out which the tendency will vary downward caused by of which 0. 25% minimize. And so work with both equally TECHNOLOGICAL IN ADDITION TO STANDARD RESEARCH

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