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Thread: 10 advises

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    10 advises

    10 advises

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1. Trying to Predict Forex Prices

    Most novice traders think that the way to win is to predict where prices are going but that's simply hoping or guessing and you won't get far with that currency trading - you need to trade confirmation of trend changes only.

    2. Believing Markets are Scientific

    Forex traders who try to predict also fall victim to the myth that markets are scientific. They follow forex trading systems based around - Elliot Wave, Gann, or Fibonacci and lose. Of course these systems all fail because if there was a scientific theory of market movement, we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market!

    Trading FX is a game of odds not certainties.

    3. Day Trading

    The most common myth of all. More novice traders try to use forex day trading systems than any other method - it doesn't work. As we have said forex is a game of odds not certainties and there is no way you can possibly work out where prices are going within a day.

    If you day trade the odds are against you and you will lose your money - period.

    4. Trading to Often

    Most traders think they should always be in the market in case they miss a move but this is rubbish. You should only trade when your currency trading system tells you there is high odds trade, then and only then should you execute your trading signal.

    5. Trying to Buy Low Sell High

    This again goes with the trader who wants to predict prices with their forex trading strategy - but it wont work and the best moves with the best odds are breakouts. Most major trends start from new market highs and you need to learn to buy them if you want to make money.

    6. Blindly Following a Vendor

    There are plenty of vendors selling forex trading signals and forex trading system software where if you follow it they tell you that you can make money - the vast majority are junk and come with simulated track records. Try and find one with a real track record and get ready for a long search.

    We can all make money in hindsight but that's not the real world.

    7. Trying to Trade the News

    If people could trade by following the news there would be a lot more winners than losers! Sure the stories are convincing but that's all they are stories. I love Harry Potter books but I don't think I can fly! News reflects the greed and fear of the herd and if you trade it get ready to dump your money quickly.

    8. Making Their Forex Trading System to Complicated.

    Many traders assume the more inputs they cram in the better a trading system will work however the total opposite is true - cram too many indicators in and the system will break. Simple systems work best as they are more robust.

    9. Failure to Run Profits

    There is a lot about said about traders not keeping their losses small, but a far bigger reason for losses is their failure to run profits. Traders get excited when they get a profit and the bigger it gets the more tempted they are to take it. Of course a few dips in their open equity, sees them snatch it - then what happens?

    It turns into a mega trend and goes the way they thought and their not in - this happens all the time. You need to have confidence and conviction to accept huge gains.

    10. Over leveraging and Stops to Close

    Sure you can get 400:1 leverage and trades use it and place stops within normally volatility. I often hear people talk about using a 30 pip stop! Well you may as well flip a coin; market volatility will kill your equity.

    You need to de leverage and give a s top that's logical

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    you need to trade confirmation of trend changes only.
    It is very hard to do, although it sounds easy.

    If you are using heiken ashi, the trend changed with heiken color changes,, it's just fear that the price changes occur only for a moment, because of the price correction.

    When we realized it was not corrected, it turns out the price trend has changed again ..

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    Quote Originally Posted by moleh999 View Post
    It is very hard to do, although it sounds easy.

    If you are using heiken ashi, the trend changed with heiken color changes,, it's just fear that the price changes occur only for a moment, because of the price correction.

    When we realized it was not corrected, it turns out the price trend has changed again ..
    Not really, bro. But, sorry, I won't talk about heiken ashi since I know nothing about it.

    "Confirmation of Trend" is something you decide on your own. For example, suppose you trade using moving averages crossover. When the fast MA crosses slow MA, many newbies wrongfully consider it as "signal." The truth is, it is a "setup" condition -- a condition to set you up that a trade opportunity is imminent. If you want to "trade confirmation of trend changes," then you'll decide what will be your "trigger" after this setup condition. You can wait until a bar/candle open and close on different sides of slow MA, for one, then you open position at the next bar/candle open. For another, if the MAs widened to such percentage compared to before crossover, you open a position.

    These, bar/candle open-close on different sides of slow MA or MAs widened to certain percentage, is what you called "confirmation of trend changes." Otherwise known as "trigger."

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    good advice, I'll do your suggestions .. that so my problem so far is: I was often late entry of the transaction. I was trapped when the trend has ended, I was confused where the use trends. if the daily trend. daily, hourly? please help explain to me

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    All you need is never do entry / open position if the trending is so strong.
    Just wait a bit for correction, that's the time to entry.

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    Quote Originally Posted by VOREX View Post
    All you need is never do entry / open position if the trending is so strong.
    Just wait a bit for correction, that's the time to entry.
    if we predict that trend will continue, why not take a position?
    rather than having to wait for a correction but with the correct analysis.

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    Quote Originally Posted by agungsetia View Post
    good advice, I'll do your suggestions .. that so my problem so far is: I was often late entry of the transaction. I was trapped when the trend has ended, I was confused where the use trends. if the daily trend. daily, hourly? please help explain to me
    Mostly, trend following traders use indicators to recognize the beginning or ending of a trend. But each time frame has its own trend. If you see a downtrend in daily TF for example, the long streak of bar after bar or candle which drove price downward, it doesn't consist of bearish bar/candle only. You see some bullish candles/bars in it -- what is commonly known as "pullback." But, too often, this "pullback" only consist of a single bullish bar/candle. So what does it mean?

    It means that you should take care that trend in each time frame doesn't always corroborate -- or run in the same direction -- as the one in other time frame. For example, you see a downtrend in TF daily, but when you SELL on 15 minute time frame, price moves upward instead of downward for the day. And on the next day, price may keep moving upward, or reverse back downward. Thus, you must not use a daily trend following indicator to pinpoint the beginning or ending of the trend in 15 minutes time frame.

    Still, you don't have to stick to a single time frame for a trend following strategy either. Some traders, they use 1 hour time frame to recognize the trend, but use 15 minute time frame to recognize pullback. By doing so, they hope they could reap the maximum chance to gain profit for the day. And, to tell you the truth, quite many of them succeeded this way. You just have to spend many hours, pouring over so many charts in both time frames, to hone your recognition skills.

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    Quote Originally Posted by khoirul View Post
    if we predict that trend will continue, why not take a position?
    rather than having to wait for a correction but with the correct analysis.
    but i think it can't be just a prediction..
    we must know many aspects of our analysis..
    not only one, but both fundamental and also the technical..

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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousfx08 View Post
    but i think it can't be just a prediction..
    we must know many aspects of our analysis..
    not only one, but both fundamental and also the technical..
    If only using Technical analysis should avoid news that will happen, perhaps with an estimated 1 hour cease trading before the news happened until 1 hour after the news happens

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kinjeng View Post
    If only using Technical analysis should avoid news that will happen, perhaps with an estimated 1 hour cease trading before the news happened until 1 hour after the news happens
    You don't have to do that. Just review your past execution of strategy. If you have a round up strategy, when news trigger price to move against your position, your strategy has a way to overcome it. And if news make price move the same direction as your position, so much the better.

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