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Thread: Market News
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    GBP/USD reaches under 1.5700

    The Cable continues to the downside, breaking past support at 1.5700 and recording a new daily low just under 1.5690. The pair has since been able to make a partial recovery past the psychological barrier yet remains vulnerable to further losses on US dollar strengthening.

    The AceTrader recommends: “Similar to euro, as long as 1.5612/15 holds, intra-day upside bias remains for this week's rise from 1.5485 to extend to 1.5690/00, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 1.5725 and bring a much needed retracement of aforesaid corrective upmove. Buy on dips and only below 1.5580 confirms correction is over and yields weakness to 1.5550/60 later.”

    Regarding critical levels, they list support at 1.5612/1.5580/1.5561 while resistance is placed at 1.5725/1.5743/1.5770.

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    The Eurozone to receive pressure from IMF

    On Monday, the Eurozone finance ministers' meeting will have a special guest. If the pressure from the debt markets was not enough, the head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, will make sure pressure on the subject is the right amount. The message Kahn will be bearing is two-fold: On one side it will call for the Ministers to enhance the "war chest" for members in crisis, the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). On the other, he will make a push for the European Central Bank (ECB) to increase the rate of bond purchases.

    Last Thursday and Friday were charachterized by markets easing the pressure on the borrowing costs of Spain, Portugal and Italy, countries that had been under siege in the past weeks, presumably because of the ECB conducting an aggresive bond purchase. Some say it is like putting a bandaid on a bullet wound. There was mention by Luxembourg's PM and the Italian Finance Minister for the creation of the "E-bonds", common European debt. The argument is that this step would cement the euro and make a strong statement that the Euro is not going anywhere.

    The IMF will also claim that the safety net not only needs expansion but also the possibility of using the funds with more flexibility. In this context, flexibiity means using them to support banks if necessary. In terms of the countries that might be needing it, Portugal the so called "next one", approved a very tough budget for 2011 in hope that they will not have to ask for aid. Spain has also annoucnced deficit-control measures including pension reforms, tax hikes on tobacco and cutbacks on subsidies.

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    Germany Govt Opposes Eurobonds, Sees No Need To Beef Up EFSF

    Germany's government opposes the idea of issuing joint Eurobonds to support ailing Eurozone member states and also sees no need to step up the current volume EU rescue funds, a German government spokesman said Monday.

    Eurogroup Chairman and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker together with Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti proposed in an opinion piece published in Monday's Financial Times that the European Union should create a single sovereign bond issuing agency for the entire region to help calm market concerns over debt among Eurozone peripheral states, and to lower borrowing costs.

    "The German government opposes Eurobonds," German government spokesman Christoph Steegmans said at a regular press conference here. The government is opposing Eurbonds both for economic and legal reasons, he stressed. Issuing joint Eurobonds would require "extensive modifications" of the EU Treaties, he argued.

    German finance ministry spokesman Martin Kreienbaum, speaking at the same press conference, added that Eurobonds would also undermine the budget discipline in the Eurozone. "A Eurobond would distract [member states] from their national responsibility for budget and fiscal policies," he argued.

    Steegmans underlined that Germany feels committed to the euro and its stability. "If the euro fails then also Europe will fail," he warned. "Everything that is good and necessary for the euro is currently [being] done, the people and markets can trust in that," he pledged.

    Finance ministers at today's Eurogroup meeting and tomorrow's Ecofin gathering "will send a joint signal for more stability and trust," he said.

    The government spokesman rejected demands for stepping up the current EU rescue funds. "We currently do not see any necessity at all to increase the volume of the euro rescue umbrella," Steegmans said. He noted that at the moment only a small part of the rescue funds are being used.

    These comments are a rebuff to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which at today's Eurogroup meeting is expected to call on Eurozone governments to increase funds available under the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and to pressure the European Central Bank to further step up its government bond purchases, news agency Reuters reported, citing an IMF report.

    ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet hinted strongly on Friday that the ECB was open to larger bond purchases and that the EU governments should increase the funding of the EFSF. Measures taken by the governments and the ECB, he said, must be "commensurate with the magnitude of the challenges" in financial markets.

    Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders on Saturday also suggested increasing EFSF funds, reflecting the growing urgency among policy makers to thwart potential contagion from Greece and Ireland.

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    Bernanke: Repeats Call on China For More Flexible FX Policy

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated his call for a more flexible Chinese currency policy in outtakes from an interview aired Sunday on CBS television's "60 Minutes" program.

    Bernanke, in comments made in an interview conducted Nov. 30 when he was visiting Ohio State University in Columbus, reiterated his belief that China's policy of pegging the yuan against the dollar is not only hurting the U.S. and other economies, but is also not in China's own interest. The portion of the interview that was broadcast was reported Sunday.

    Bernanke said "keeping the Chinese currency too low is bad for the American economy because it hurts our trade."

    He added that Chinese currency policy is "bad for other emerging market economies."

    What's more, "It's bad for China because, among other things, it means that China can't have its own independent monetary policy because if they fix their currency to the dollar, then they have to have the same monetary policy essentially that the United states has," Bernanke said.

    "Now, the United States has and needs a relatively supportive monetary policy. China is growing very quickly," he continued. "They're risking inflation by importing U.S. monetary policy, and that's a problem for them."

    Asked if Chinese exchange rate policy is irresponsible, Bernanke replied, "Well, I think it's not even in their own interest. They need to continue doing what they have been doing which is to allow their currency to appreciate to something more appropriate in terms of its market value."

    In another outtake, Bernanke took pains to further explain the Fed's policy of buying $600 billion of longer term Treasury securities, saying "there are two things it is not."

    Bernanke also elaborated on the Fed's reasons for resuming quantitative easing, repeating much the same arguments he has made previously.

    He said there are "two things it (QE2) is not."

    "It is not fiscal policy," he said. "It's not spending. It doesn't increase the deficit. In fact, because the Fed earns interest ... on the securities we buy, which we remit back to the Treasury, it will actually decrease the government deficit. It is not deficit spending."

    "Secondly, it's not money printing," Bernanke went on. "People talk about the printing press. That's is not what this is about."

    "This policy does not increase the amount of currency in circulation," he continued. "It does not increase in any signifiant way the amount of money supply as measured by say bank deposits."

    "By buying securities on the open market we bring down interest rates or at least hold down inserts rates in the economy, and that in turn feeds through to people's decision about buying houses, about buying cars, firms' decisions about investing or expanding their business," Bernanke said.

    "By keeping inserts rates a little bit lower and helping credit flow we help the economy grow a little faster, and that's essentially what we're trying to do," he added. "I's nothing exotic. It's nothing we don't understand. We've done this before. We think we understand it well and we think it will helpful to the economy."

    Following up on his earlier comment that an increase in the amount of QE2 was "certainly possible," Bernanke said, "We're going to be regularly reviewing this. This is not something that we've set into automatic motion going forward. We want to continue to think about it, whether it needs to be changed, whether it needs to be increased or decreased or modified."

    Bernanke professed to be surprised by the criticism the Fed has received since announcing QE2 since Nov. 3.

    "We had been signaling and sort of explaining to the market since August that we were going to do this or at least we were seriously considering doing it, and in fact on the day we announced it the markets barely moved because everyone anticipated this was going to happen," he observed.

    "The one thing I found a bit surprising is that after two months of essentially broadcasting to the world that we were going to do this that only after we made the announcement suddenly there was concern raised," he said.

    Bernanke offered another defense of the action: "While there are uncertainties associated with this policy there are also some very important risks with not acting, including the fact that unemployment is high and not falling. Inflation is very low and coming close to the deflation zone. so I think the balance of risks is in favor of this policy."

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    ECB Weekly Bond Buys Rose To E1.965 Billion In Wk Ended Dec 3

    The European Central Bank stepped up its purchases of sovereign EMU debt last week in a bid to counter rising peripheral bond spreads, spending some E1.965 billion on bonds that settled by Friday December 3, the ECB announced Monday.

    The figure was the highest weekly total since the week ending July 2, when the ECB bought and settled E3.7 billion worth of bonds before curtailing its activity dramatically in the weeks and months that followed. The volume purchased and settled last week was smaller than many had expected, and hoped for, but it likely understates total purchases last week since bond buys conducted Thursday and Friday had not settled by the end of the week.

    According to traders, the ECB was again in the markets buying "aggressively" on Thursday and Friday. The ECB specifically targeted Portuguese and Irish bonds, buying in tranches of E100 million, up from E25 million previously, traders said. Since the purchases made on Thursday and Friday will feed into next week's data, the figures can be expected to show relatively high volumes next week.

    The future course of the ECB's bond purchasing under the Securities and Markets Program is less certain, even if ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet did seem to suggest that the door was open to a higher volume of purchases when needed.

    Trichet assured that the program is "ongoing" and its amount is not limited. He also said that ECB bond buys going forward will be "commensurate" with the malfunctioning of the markets.

    There has been some speculation that the word "commensurate" may be new code language reflecting a change of strategy in the direction of a more active attempt to keep spreads down at levels "commensurate" with fundamentals, rather than only intervening when new records are being tested.

    However, Trichet made abundantly clear that it is primarily the responsibility of fiscal authorities to take action to address the sovereign debt crisis. In line with this thinking, the ECB last week resisted pressure to pre-announce the launch of a massive bond-buying offensive that some market participants thought should be as high as E2 trillion.

    It will likely take a few weeks before it becomes clear whether the ECB's approach towards bond purchases has indeed changed. Action may also depend on progress being made on other fronts, including a potential increase of resources for the European Financial Stability Facility, to calm market concerns that enough money may not be available to bail out larger countries such as Spain or Italy.

    There is, however, no question that the ECB will continue sterilizing purchases made under the SMP, Trichet assured.

    On Monday, the central bank said it would reabsorb E69 billion Tuesday in a quick tender to collect one-week term deposits.

    That total represents the cumulative volume of bonds purchased through the Securities Market Program since its inception in May and settled as of last Friday, rounded to the nearest half billion.

    The operation, to be conducted on Tuesday at 10:30 GMT, will be in the form of a variable-rate tender with a maximum bid rate of 1.00%, the bank said. The liquidity will be held for one week at the bank as a term deposit. The fixed-term deposits can be used as collateral in the Eurosystem's credit operations.

    The central bank also said it intends to hold another liquidity-absorbing operation next week.

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    EU Rehn: See Some Eurozone Opposition To Eurobond Concept


    There is some opposition to the creation of common Eurozone bonds, or E-bonds, even though the idea is intellectually attractive, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn said on Monday.

    Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker and Italy's Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti have tabled a plan for E-bonds, suggesting that the current crisis could be ended with the creation of a European Debt Agency, which could issue common Eurozone bonds.

    Germany is one of the opponents of the idea, which will be debated at this afternoon's meeting of the 16 finance ministers of the Eurozone, attended by Rehn and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet.

    "Eurobonds are a broad concept," Rehn said as he arrived for the meeting. He added that there has been a broad debate about the bonds for more than a decade.

    While Rehn said he finds the idea of common bonds "intellectually attractive," he cautioned that there was likely to be some opposition to the idea among the Eurozone's finance ministers.

    "The Commission made a proposal in May for a community instrument," Rehn said, but that was voted against in the EU Council, he said, adding that he understood there was some opposition to the idea among the Eurozone's 16 finance minister.

    "We always study very carefully any proposal from a member state," Rehn said.

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    Greece Papandreou: Greece, Some Others Back Eurobond Proposal

    Greece and a number of countries back the idea of common Eurozone bonds, Greek Prime Minister Georgios Papandreou said on Monday.

    Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker and Italy's Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti have tabled a plan for a euro-bond, suggesting that the current crisis could be ended with the creation of a European Debt Agency, which could issue common Eurozone bonds.

    Germany is one of the opposers of the idea, which will be debated at this afternoon's meeting of the 16 finance ministers of the Eurozone, attended by EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet.

    "This is a proposal that we have also accepted, Greece has also been positive and this is also a Greek decision, I know that there are a number of countries that have accepted this or that have proposed this in different forms and manners," Papandreou told reporters in Brussels.

    "I think that we need to seriously discuss this issue, do it in a way which is organised, and which is responsible," he said. "If there is an understanding and a consensus, I would think that this would be an important step for a wider and more robust economic governance facility," the Greek prime minister added.

    Papandreou was in Brussels for a meeting with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

    "The idea of eurobonds is an old idea," Barroso said. "It was never possible to come to an agreement, that is why, before commenting on this latest proposal, I need to be more sure about the political feasibility," he said.

    Barroso paid tribute to Greece's prime minister, who is currently implementing a strict austerity plan in return for an EU/IMF aid deal worth E110 billion over three years.

    Papandreou "has grasped the nettle of economic reform in his country, he is delivering, not just committing," Barroso said, adding that "The Commission stands fully behind the Greek government."

    "Greece is on track to deliver on its reform agenda," Barroso said. "The economy should improve in 2011, wage and price inflation is beginning to moderate, setting the stage for improvement in competitiveness."

    "All our efforts are directed towards moving out of this crisis," Papandreou said. "We very much intend to adhere to the path that we have embarked upon."

    Greece is one of two eurozone countries forced to ask for aid to help manage its debt burden. Last month Ireland was offered E85 billion in loans to help with its debt and banking sector restructuring.

    Barroso said the European Council had decided that the "maturities of loans to Greece and to Ireland have to be aligned."

    "This was a crucial decision for the credibility of the programme," he said, adding that the technical details of that move would be finalised soon.

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    TheFXSpot: Euro Steady Despite Pending Ireland Vote/EU Events

    Despite ongoing uncertainty about eurozone peripheral happenings, the euro regained its footing Monday, and rallied off earlier lows near $1.3250.

    The euro was trading at $1.3302 heading into the close, in the middle of a $1.3248 to $1.3441 range.

    Traders favored selling rallies over $1.3400 and were ready to buy dips below $1.3250 in the short-term, but stressed that larger direction will hinge on events about to unfold in coming days.

    Monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada (both expected to leave interest rates unchanged) will provide a mild diversion Tuesday, with the focus more squarely on Ireland's budget vote and the eurozone finance ministers' meeting taking place in Brussels.

    On the Irish vote, strategists at Brown Brother's Harriman note that after the November 25 by-election,the majority's Fianna Fail party maintains just a two-seat majority.

    "More important,though,is that the budget is contested by the minority Fine Gail party and it is highly uncertain if Fianna Fail will have the votes to pass," they said.

    "A failure to pass the budget would be catastrophic for the Irish government and may even call in to question the recent IMF/EU loan of E85 billion," the strategists said.

    As for EU/EC happenings, rumors were fast and furious Monday, with talk ranging from the European Central Bank considering the issue of European government bonds to reports that the European Financial Stability Fund may need to be increased from the current E440 billion.

    Peter Schaffrik, head of European Rates strategy and Jens Larsen, Chief European Economist at RBC Capital Markets, noted that in addition to Eurogroup/Eurozone finance minister meetings Monday and Tuesday respectively, a European Council meeting will also be held next week.

    "These gatherings present a good opportunity to get a deal done - In fact, they may be the last good opportunities before the Christmas break and "more importantly" the supply frenzy at the beginning of 2011," they said.

    RBCCM expects to see about E150 billion - E200 billion in eurozone sovereign bonds issued in the first two months of 2011.

    "If nothing has been done by then and markets have not miraculously turned around by then, things may turn nasty: so either something bad or something big is likely to happen," Schaffrik and Larsen said.

    Euro trading set the tone for the day, although the greenback was also an occasional driver as market players pared back dollar shorts put on in the wake of last Friday's weak U.S. non-farm payroll data.

    Market players were conflicted by comments made by Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke in a "60 Minutes" interview made public Sunday.

    In his remarks, the Fed Chair downplayed the risk of deflation, but said inflation is so low that it is "awfully close" to verging on a decline in the price level. Bernanke said that deflation would be a "more serious concern" in the absence of QE2.

    Bernanke also maintained that unemployment would be "much, much higher" -- possibly as much as 25% -- in the absence of the Fed's aggressive response to the financial crisis and recession.

    Addressing concerns that the Fed's resumption of quantitative easing, or QE2 as it has been called, may lead to higher inflation, dollar depreciation and new asset bubbles, Bernanke countered that market players are failing to look at "the risks of not acting."

    Without the Fed's unconventional monetary stimulus, he maintained, low inflation could morph into economically damaging deflation and unemployment could go even higher than it is already.

    As it is, Bernanke said, "the unemployment rate is just not going down" and warned it could take four to five years before it is back to "more normal" levels.

    The Fed chief expressed "100%" confidence in the Fed's ability to control inflation through interest rate hikes when the time comes, but he acknowledged the "trick" will be to decide when it is time to tighten monetary policy. (See additional details in Fed watcher Steve Beckner's analysis on Market News mainwire at 7:16 a.m. EDT)

    In other FX pairs Monday, dollar-yen was closing at Y82.66 and cable at $1.5708, after trading in respective ranges of Y82.59 to Y82.98 and $1.5657 to $1.5773.

    On the commodity front, NYMEX January light sweet crude oil futures settled up $0.19 at $89.38 per barrel after trading in a $88.56 to $89.76 range.

    Initial resistance is found at $90.24, the resistance line from November 24. The front contract last traded above $90 a barrel in early May.

    Spot gold was closing at $1423.25/oz after trading in a $1409.40 to $1427.01 range.

    This is a record high close for gold. Also. the precious metal broke above the $1424.10 record peak seen November 9, so the $1427.01 posted earlier is a record high.

    The S&P 500 closed at 1223.12 Monday, after trading in a 1220.67 to 1225.80 range. The index posted a record high of 1226.87 November 5

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    China PBOC Sells 1Y Paper At Unch. Yield, Resumes 28-day Repo

    The People's Bank of China sold just CNY1 billion in one-year central bank paper on Tuesday as part of its open market operations, with the yield remaining unchanged at 2.3437%, traders said.

    The central bank sold the same amount of one-year paper as last week, which matched the smallest since a sale conducted on October 23, 2007, when the PBOC also auctioned CNY1 billion in one-year paper.

    The central bank also drained CNY5 billion via 28-day bond repurchase agreements earlier Tuesday, after declining to use the 28-day instrument for the past seven months, traders said.

    The central bank last drained CNY55 billion via 28-day repo on April 27 at a yield of 1.18%.

    Interbank market liquidity conditions have been improving since late last week as hot money continues to flow into China and government agencies increase spending at fiscal year end.

    The benchmark seven-day repo fixing rate fell 24.22 basis points on Monday to 3.0920%.

    The size of PBOC open market operations have shrunk in recent weeks as buyers refuse to buy at the yields currently on offer and the PBOC refuses to raise yields to avoid stoking expectations that it will soon raise official interest rates.

    The PBOC has been using the deposit reserve requirement ratio as its primary tool for draining market liquidity in recent months. Two increases last month removed over CNY600 billion in interbank liquidity.

    The central bank injected a net CNY38 billion into the banking system last week via open market operations.

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    AUD holding at 0.9900, RBA leaves rates unchanged

    The RBA offered no surprises to the market, leaving rates unchanged at 4.75%.

    The immediate reaction from the Aussie was to the downside, pulling back from 0.9915 to 0.9890, yet after 10m. bulls are pushing prices higher again, we are back at 0.9900.

    Comments relating to the rates were more dovish than expected, after the RBA stated “that rates will remain on hold for quite some time”. They also stated “policy is appropriate for the time being”, and that “lending rates are slightly above average”.

    In another front, household saving is starting to pick up at a nice pace, the Central Bank sees inflation not an immediate threat as AUD is helping to contain it. Employment growth remains strong.

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