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Thread: GBP/USD pair discussion
  1. #3231
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    Hello good morning people

    Good news for all of us yak? How about trading yesterday? make a decent profit or even a lot of minus?

    If you see yesterday's GBP currency movement can be used as a momentum to take it for a short time, after the day after being attacked by quite a lot of BUYERS until hundreds of pips yesterday, it turns out SELLER who dominates and can balance yesterday prices, BUY and SELL in two days can not be separated from the fundamental influence yes ...

    Fundamentals

    Discuss from the fundamentals first, Quoting from Reuters that MPs destroyed Prime Minister Theresa May's EU divorce agreement on Tuesday, pushing Britain deeper into the crisis and forcing parliament to decide in a few days whether to support Brexit which has no agreement or looking for last minute delays.

    Lawmakers voted against the Brexit agreement which was amended in May to 391 to 242 when his last talks with European Union leaders on Monday to ease fears of his critics eventually proved futile.

    Voting places the fifth largest economy in the world in uncharted territory without a clear solution; leaving the EU without agreement, delaying the date of divorce March 29, general elections or even another referendum is now possible. May may even try a third time to gain parliamentary support in the hope that the hardline euro MPs in the Conservative Party, the most vocal critic of his withdrawal agreement, could change their minds if it is more likely the UK will remain in the European Union after all.

    While he lost, the margin of defeat was smaller than the record 230 loss suffered by his agreement in January.

    Lawmakers will now vote at 1900 GMT on Wednesday on whether Britain must exit the world's biggest trade bloc without an agreement, a scenario that warns business leaders will bring chaos to markets and supply chains, and other critics say it can cause food shortages and medicine.

    May said the government would not instruct members of its own parliament how to choose, as usual.

    A Labor opposition spokesman said this meant he had "stopped pretending to lead the country". May political spokesman said he had not discussed resignation.

    The prime minister, who was raucous after midnight talks on Monday, told lawmakers: "Let me explain. Choosing to oppose going without agreement and for an extension does not resolve the problems we face."

    Deadlock

    He said the parliament was now deadlocked: "Does he want to revoke Article 50 (announcing the intention to leave the European Union)? Does he want to hold a second referendum? Or does he want to go with an agreement, but not this agreement?"

    Graham Brady, an influential Conservative MP, said the two scenarios were most likely to leave the European Union without an agreement "or some kind of endless delay".

    Andrea Leadsom, who runs the government business in parliament, insisted that "it is still our intention, if possible, to leave the EU on March 29 with a good agreement".

    The European Union says the Brexit risk without a broken deal has "significantly increased" but there will be no more negotiations with London in terms of divorce.

    Sterling, which earlier on the day fell 2 percent to $ 1,3005, traded around $ 1.3086 shortly after the vote.

    "One door has closed but other possibilities have been opened and the market hopes that Wednesday's vote on Brexit without an agreement will suffer a big defeat," said Timothy Graf, chief macro strategist at State Street Global Advisors in London.

    Opposition to the May agreement among members of the Conservative Party stems from the belief that it does not offer a clean pause from the European Union that has been chosen.

    Brexit supporters argue that, while "no agreement" divorce might bring short-term instability, in the longer term it will enable Britain to develop and establish profitable trade agreements around the world.

    However, the parliament is expected to firmly reject Brexit "there is no agreement" too, so lawmakers will then vote again on Thursday - whether the government should request a delay in the date of leave to allow further talks.

    Both May and the European Union have ruled out other changes to the agreement, hit after two and a half years of winding negotiations.

    Technical

    After being quoted at length from Reuters, I became increasingly confused with the English fundamentals so we could discuss technical matters only,

    And according to the analysis yesterday, GBPUSD will drop back from BUYER the day before, but its okey, and I even think of other things like my description below.

    If it is only limited to theory, then it is welcome, not followed, it's okay.
    If we skip the 2 days ago or we remove it from the chart and jump immediately on this day, the chart will be worth the price, why is it balanced, because if we pull the trend line from the high then the price has now touched the trend line.

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    So my analysis for today is that GBPUSD will continue to fall again because it touched the trendline, so as far as I can, the target area is the Demand area valued like yesterday at 1.2923 - 1.2898 as the first fresh demand area and if it can be penetrated it can refer to the second take profit the price of 1.2805 - 1.2787 which is also the second demand area.

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  4. #3232
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    I would not mind if the pound continued yesterday's decline.
    So far, I don’t see any good signals for growth either according to technical analysis or according to the options.
    The previous day only confirmed that the rate is not yet ready to grow higher than 1.3300.
    Even an update of the high of 1.3286 was not made. Today, it seems to be an unlikely action as well.
    I highlighted an important level of 1.3150. Today, there is the Max pain level for the short option contract.
    Once this level is reached, we can safely start selling.
    So far, the target is 1.3000. We are unlikely to be able to fall below today.
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    The level of 1.2500 is very significant. An addition of cheap put options at the far strike have been continuing for some time.
    There is still a place to decline to this range, but traders are purchasing huge amounts of put options.
    Yes, they are cheap, but they will be useful in handy when there is a strong decline, but the question is different:
    Will there be such a strong decline after another vote on Brexit?
    According to the strong activity, traders again fear the decline which was at the very beginning of the process of Britain’s exit from the EU.
    I don’t see strong activity for call options, they probably expect a decline rather than growth.
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    Regarding yesterday's sale, I closed it successfully at 1.3015.
    At the price of 1.3137, I placed the first pending order for the sale. Besides, I placed the stop loss order of 100 points and a take profit order near the level of 1.3000.
    The second pending order for the sale is within 1.3183. Stop loss order is 100 points, while the take profit order is 170 points.
    The risk is at 3% of the deposit.
    Well, we are waiting for the vote, increased volatility, profit on sales or stop loss order execution in case of growth.
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  5. #3233
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    While there is complete uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the pound has increased by 320 points in a day.
    Yesterday, the trading principle included a large addition of positions, even without providing small speculators with a pause.
    Yesterday, I was selling. The first two sales from the call level and the border of the risk premium were knocked out immediately. Then he began selling even higher, but these sales were knocked out with stop loss orders.
    In short, the profit that I received the day before, I had to return yesterday.

    The trading range in terms of volume was very large yesterday.
    At the moment, the best levels where a reversal is possible is in the range of 1.3400 and 1.3000 at futures prices.
    The level of 1.3200 failed to stop the growth. It just delayed yesterday's growth, but failed to show some kind of strong protective reaction.
    As a result, we get a range of 350 points for active steps. Well, let today's vote be in favor of all sellers which were surprised by yesterday's growth.
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    Changes in open interest were made in favor of 1.3000 and 1.2800. The addition of new put options at these strikes is promising. I think that there is some reason they are buying them. It means that a decline is possible.
    Surprisingly, with such an increase in price, insurance in the form of call options was hardly acquired. But those who could have bought insurance as call options would not be afraid of yesterday’s strong growth, since the risk would have been limited by the premium.
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    Today, I expect strong steps from sellers, probably even better than the bulls showed yesterday.
    If there is another provocation of growth, then I will sell it at the new low which was hit yesterday. In the other case, I placed take profit orders at a distant level of 1.2990.
    Yesterday, we managed to take about 12% of the deposit. Today, under favorable conditions, I expect an increase of 30%.
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  6. #3234
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    Daily GBPUSD trading analysis ===

    Discussion of GBPUSD I am only based on technical, where GBPUSD is in accordance with my analysis yesterday in the post here still under bullish pressure on the Daily Timeframe, so that if anyone follows it, of course there will be enough profit. The current price has moved above the supply level at the price of 1.3215 and breaks the resistance at 1.3347. Stochastic daily shows prices are overbought.

    For alternative GBPUSD trading based on forex technical analysis, today we can look for sell signal confirmation in the 1.3280 area. The target potential is quite narrow because it only makes use of the correction, which is up to the range 1.3180.

    Given the price has already broken 1.3347 then be careful if the price returns above the range because it has the potential to frustrate this seller scenario and projection. So we must use stoploss to avoid unwanted things.

    Alternative strategies or plan B (BUY) we can follow the analysis below:
    A break above the 1.3347 area with one bullish candlestick potentially will be followed by an upward movement to the 1.3450 area. If you are going to open a BUY position, make sure we observe the breakout that occurs is really valid according to the breakout parameters of the area psychology. For a while this is only this, if anything is added, welcome.

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  7. #3235
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    Gbp/Usd pair is makes very difficult and interesting now a days. Because of the failure of May's Braxit deal, Now Pond makes very strong and it can break 1,3400 price level in next week.
    We need to use small lot size because now a days Pond has moved 100,150 pips, That's why, be careful while entry any trade today.

  8. #3236
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    GBPUSD TODAY FORECAST

    Fundamentals


    There was nothing special in the vote yesterday but the decision was that the parliament opposed for the second time the Brexit agreement proposed by British Prime Minister Theresa May for Britain to leave the European Union without an agreement and refused to vote refused 391 refused and 242 supported.

    There is a possibility that market expectations expect the Brexit crisis to open up a second referendum that allows the UK not to leave the European Union, besides that there are many emerging questions. How long should it be extended?

    On Thursday, the British Parliament agreed that Brexit could be postponed three months, until June 30. However, it was on condition that lawmakers agree to a deal next Wednesday so that there is enough breathing space before it is implemented. But the only agreement on the table now is the same as what MPs rejected on Tuesday. What will be delivered will not be rejected again? On the other hand, the EU has indicated that they want a longer grace period.

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    GBPUSD technical analysis

    I see GBPUSD still in bullish pressure on the H4 timeframe. Yesterday's price movements tend to be sideways and have not yet indicated whether there will be bullish forwarding or even bearish. The current price has moved above the supply and resistance levels at the price of 1.3210 - 1.3230. Stochastic H4 indicates the price is at level 50.

    GBPUSD trading recommendations are based on technical analysis of supply demand and resistance support, today we should wait and see first because Supply and resistance are currently not fresh because they are always tested by running prices.
    Seeing the market has broken through supply 1.3218 and resistance 1.3347 then be careful if the price returns up because it has the potential to strengthen and follow the bullish trend.

    Alternative strategy or trading plan we can follow the movement on the H1 timeframe with a short term target. Given the current dominance of BUYER, you can take BUY
    A break above the 1.3347 area with one bullish candlestick potentially will be followed by an upward movement to the 1.3450 area. Beforehand, make sure we have determined the risk by installing stoploss.

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  9. #3237
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    The GBPUSD has maintained a tight position since yesterday, holding price presently at 1.32498 at the time of writing this:

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    It appears the NY session could send the pair high as 1.33080 or higher.

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    The reason behind this analysis is the fact that the pair have held on to gains, though given up a small part of it. Seems like it is awaiting some extra buying pressure from the buys to further push it higher. I would definitely go for a buy on this pair once I see even the slightest buying pressure. We can see that price is also slightly above our 10d day simple moving average. Well, if you want to join, please do so with extra caution. Wish all a lot of pips today being the last day of the trading week.

  10. #3238
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    GBPUSD has negatively supported the support at 1.3206 but has maintained its stability so far, so the bullish trend is still valid for today, supported by Stochastic moving near oversold areas, awaiting a visit to 1.3490 as the next major station, with the reminder That stability above 1.3226 is important for the continuation of the suggested bullish wave.

  11. #3239
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    The Pound was down against the Dollar at 0.79%, with GBPUSD trading at 1.3227.
    Against the yen, the pound was down 0.44%, with the GBP retreating to 147.60.
    The euro rose against the British pound to 0.85446, soaring 0.64%.
    The Canadian Dollar was up against the Pound at 0.60% and the GBP is trading at 1.7633
    LONDON: Britain's exit package from the European Union, negotiated by Prime Minister Teresa Mae with the European Union, is "the only one on the table," British Trade Secretary Liam Fox said on Thursday.

    He continued to warn that delaying Britain's exit from the EU in the long run would send a signal to British public opinion that there were "some" in parliament trying to "steal" Britain's exit from the EU.

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  13. #3240
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    The price reached the resistance zone formed by 1.33000 and 1.33500 resistance levels. We get a bearish divergence which tells us about a possible trend reversal. RSI confirms that the market bounces from the resistance and probably we should be ready to see further falling. MACD and DMI support buyers and the market can try to break the resistance zone one more time. As a result, the price action at 1.33000 and 1.33500 levels will be important for us.

    If the price breaks the resistance zone , it will confirm the continuation of the uptrend. But entry levels for buying will be far from the better zone at SMA50 and the main uptrend line. For buying, we will have to wait for a correction movement and buy only after getting reversal signals.

    As for selling, the price is at the resistance and short positions here will be logical. We have the bearish divergence which can be used for open sell trades based on the daily timeframe , but I think there will be more interesting signals on lower timeframes. I suggest to use them with profit targets at 1.32000 level and SMA50 from the daily chart .

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