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Thread: Wave Analysis by InstaForex

  1. #2791
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    Euro buyers need to be very careful

    Yesterday, a number of good fundamental data on the US economy had a good support for the US dollar and statements by representatives of the Fed, which are scheduled for this week, gave even more optimism to investors. For example, a representative of the Fed, Evans, said yesterday that the regulator could continue to gradually increase interest rates, even though there is no risk of excessive acceleration of inflation. Charles Evans also voiced anxiety about the uncertainty regarding foreign trade policies, which could carry risks to the US economy. His colleague in charge, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams, also remains optimistic about the rates and growth pace of the US economy. However, Williams sees the risks for the growth of the US economy in the next few years, which are mainly tied to the foreign trade policy of the White House. First of all, according to the president of the FRS San Francisco, under the negative impact of the current policy of Trump, there will be companies and ordinary consumers. According to Williams, he expects that the GDP growth rate this year will average 2.5%. Fed President Philadelphia Harker did not comment on the situation associated with the prospects for monetary policy, saying only that unemployment is now below the natural level, which is a good signal for the Federal Reserve System. For today, there is a planned release of a number of important fundamental statistics for the euro area, including inflation, which may determine the further direction in the EURUSD pair at the end of the week. As for the technical prospects, while the trade is above the lower border of the rising channel, which is currently taking place in the area of 1.2340, there is no special reason to worry about the further growth of the euro. However, its breakthrough will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders of large buyers, which will quickly pull the euro down to levels of 1.2300 and 1.2270. In case of further growth, problems for bulls can occur at the levels of 1.2380 and 1.2420. The Japanese yen ignored good data on Japan's export growth and continued its decline against the US dollar. According to the report of the Ministry of Finance, Japan's exports in March 2018 grew as a result of good foreign demand, mainly for cars and equipment. Thus, exports increased by 2.1% compared to the same period of the previous year, while economists forecast a larger increase of 4.9%. Japan's foreign trade surplus in March amounted to 797.3 billion yen against 440 billion yen from economists predicted.



    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/203756

    ---------- Post added 04-19-2018 at 07:39 AM ---------- Previous post was 04-18-2018 at 09:41 AM ----------

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April, 19 2018



    Wave iv/ is pushing the limit. A rally above the low of wave i/ at 1.6981 can not be allowed, or the preferred count will be invalidated. We do expect important resistance at 1.6981 to remain untouched and will be looking for a break below short-term support at 1.6861 soon, to confirm a top being in place for renewed downside pressure towards the 1.6625 target.

    R3: 1.6981

    R2: 1.6957

    R1: 1.6925

    Pivot: 1.6861

    S1: 1.6844

    S2: 1.6815

    S3: 1.6755

    Trading recommendation: Our stop at 1.6915 was hit for a 70 pips loss. We will sell EUR at 1.6920 or upon a break below 1.6861. Our stop will be placed at 1.6985.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/113704
    Best Regards,
    PR Manager
    InstaForex Companies Group

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  3. #2792
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    The sterling has every chance to continue its decline

    The British pound again fell in the wake of a sell-off due to the release of weak data on retail sales and volume in the UK.

    According to the data presented, the base retail sales index in March fell by 0.5% against the forecast of a decline by 0.4% and the February growth by 0.4%. In annual terms, the indicator in growth fell to 1.1% against expectations of growth of 1.4% and the previous value of 1.2%. The retail sales in annual terms fell to 1.1% against the forecast of growth of 2.0% and the previous value of 1.5%, and its March value fell more than expected, by 1.2%, against 0.5% and February growth by 1.5%.

    First, after the publication of the data, sterling, oddly enough, even received support and began to gain against the US dollar. Such dynamics of the market can be explained by the general weakness of the US dollar and the likely desire of a number of large market players to take advantage of the low activity of market participants and "collect orders" for those whose bet on the selling of the GBPUSD pair. But everything already fell into place in the Asian trading session, the pair fell more than one figure and "lies" at the support level of the short-term uptrend.

    Assessing the prospects for the Bank of England, we note that it faces a difficult task, which, it seems, will force itself to refrain from deciding to raise interest rates at the June meeting. The reason for this is the latest data of economic statistics, which indicated not only a drop in inflationary pressures, but also a general decline in economic growth, as the latest GDP data show.

    Another strong negative for the British pound is the unresolved issue of Britain's withdrawal from the EU. After the active negotiation process in the winter of this year, in the spring everything was quiet. The British agreed on a transition period, but it seems that they have failed to reduce the financial compensation of the EU, which has a negative impact on the country's economy, of course, apart from the very factor of the severance of many economic ties between Britain and continental Europe.

    It is likely that we will witness a new wave of a decline in sterling.

    Forecast of the day:

    The GBPUSD is trading above 1.4065 on a wave of expectations that the Bank of England will continue the cycle of raising interest rates in the near future. Estimating this, we can assume that the pair after overcoming the mark of 1.4065 will then fall to 1.3960.

    The USDCAD pair continues to grow towards our target level of 1.270 amid the Canadian CBA's lack of desire to raise rates. The pair also supports and stops the rise in oil prices after reaching a local peak. Most likely, if the pair overcomes the level of 1.2700, its growth will continue to 1.2800, if the price of oil again unfolds upwards.





    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/203918
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  4. #2793
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    Daily analysis of USDX for April 23, 2018

    The index has been consolidating above the 200 SMA following a breakout of the tight range in which has been trapped. The next target to the upside still lies at 90.36, where a corrective move could take place in order to gather enough momentum to break higher. If that happens, then it could be on the way to reach the 91.75 level.



    H1 chart's resistance levels: 90.63 / 91.75 H1 chart's support levels: 89.36 / 87.88 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 90.63, take profit is at 91.75 and stop loss is at 89.49.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/113932

    ---------- Post added 04-24-2018 at 08:50 AM ---------- Previous post was 04-23-2018 at 09:28 AM ----------

    GBP/JPY Bounced Nicely Off Its Support, Lookout For a Further Rise

    GBP/JPY tested its support at 150.58 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, ascending support line) where we expect it to rise further to its resistance at 153.85 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance). We do have to be cautious of the intermediate resistance at 152.19 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (89, 5, 3) bounced off its support at 2.03% where it has a lot of upside potential. Buy above 150.58. Stop loss 149.69. Take profit at 153.85.



    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114059
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  5. #2794
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    GBP/USD Bounced Nicely Off Its Support, Potential Breakout

    GBP/USD bounced nicely off its support at 1.3930 (100% Fibonacci extension) where we expect it to rise further if it breaks out of its immediate resistance at 1.3992 (horizontal overlap resistance, descending channel). Once this level is broke, a bullish acceleration would be triggered, causing price to rise to its resistance at 1.4176 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). We do need to be cautious of the intermediate resistance at 1.4090 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (89, 5, 3) shows a corresponding bounce off its support at 2.6%. Buy above 1.3930. Stop loss at 1.3848. Take profit at 1.4176.



    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114175

    ---------- Post added 04-26-2018 at 08:00 AM ---------- Previous post was 04-25-2018 at 08:53 AM ----------

    Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 26, 2018

    USD/JPY

    This pair has gained about 180 pips this week, and the price is now close to the supply level at 109.50. The supply level would be breached to the upside as price targets other supply levels at 110.00 and 110.50. There could be bearish efforts along the way, but things would be overpowered by the ongoing bullish momentum.



    There a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which is brought about by the recent rally. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they may have an impact on the market.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114320
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  6. #2795
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    Trading plan for gold for April 27, 2018




    Technical outlook:

    Gold 4H chart has been presented here for a larger swing picture. After consolidating for past several weeks, the yellow metal finally peaked at $1,365.00 on April 11, 2018. Since then the story is of lower lows and lower highs and it is still expected to continue the same. Looking at the short term structure, the metal is expected to find the interim support around $1,310 levels. Besides, the the fibonacci extension of 61.8% is also seen to be around $1,313 levels, and hence bullish reversal is expected soon. Please note that this should not be considered as a trend reversal but just a corrective rally is expected for now. Looking at the wave counts, the yellow metal seems to be into its 3rd wave now, which is most likely to end soon. Conservative traders should be looking to book profits in the short term and look for opportunities higher to sell again.

    Trading plan:

    Aggressive traders look to go long with stop below $1,305 levels. Conservative traders please take profits on short positions taken earlier and remain flat.

    Fundamental outlook:

    Watch out for German unemployment rate at 03:55 AM EST today.

    Good luck!


    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114461
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  7. #2796
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    Trading Plan for AUDUSD for April 30, 2018



    Technical outlook:

    The daily chart view presented for AUD/USD is suggesting that the current drop that began in January 2018 from 0.8130 levels is nearing a major price support and Fibonacci 61.8% extension near 0.7500 levels as shown here. Please note that while dropping lower for last 4 months, the pair has broken below its 1-year support trend line and is also looking to take out the price support near 0.7500 levels, before pulling back. Traders who are holding short positions, should prepare to book profits for now and remain flat; while aggressive traders should be preparing to turn bullish for a potential counter trend rally. Looking into the wave counts, the current drop has unfolded into 3 waves until now. Hence chances remain for a continued rally as well. It is still unclear whether AUD/USD is wanting to drop into 5 waves or not. It can be only confirmed in the coming sessions where the counter trend rally would end.

    Trading plan:

    Prepare to take profits on short positions taken earlier. Aggressive traders prepare to go long around 0.7500 levels with a tight stop.

    Fundamental outlook:

    Watch out for German consumer Price Index and US PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively. Good luck!

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114635
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  8. #2797
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    Bitcoin analysis for 02/05/2018

    The latest Gov't report from Hong Kong reports that Bitcoin puts a "medium-low" risk in financial crime, according to Hong Kong Financial Services and Treasury (FSTB).

    The report was to establish a status on money laundering and terrorist financing. It states explicitly that virtual currencies, such as Bitcoin, are not particularly used in any type of financial crime, although there is an inherent vulnerability to money laundering.

    The report mentions the use of cryptocurrencies in the pyramids, so-called Ponzi and cybercrime. The report refers in particular to police reports, where in 2013-2017, 167 Bitcoins participated in such non-legal projects. "Although we have not found a significant risk in these modern payment methods, it is a rapidly growing field that requires constant monitoring."- notes the report, pointing out that financial supervision authorities in Hong Kong and law enforcement agencies will work together to look at the risks associated with ICO and generally cryptocurrencies.

    According to the report, cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in Hong Kong.

    FTSB suggests that because Hong Kong is one of the freest economies in the world with a dynamic currency market and a lack of capital control, VCs are not as attractive as in economies where people may try to avoid currency controls or seek refuge from high inflation rates.

    Finally, it was also added that BTC ATMs in Hong Kong are not widely used by citizens. Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame.

    The price has broken below the black trend line at the level of $9,126 and now is heading towards the level of $8,706.

    The key technical support is still seen at the level of $8,355, but the current price action does not look impulsive actually.

    It is quite possible that instead of five waves to the upside, the market will perform only three waves up and will continue with the downtrend.



    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114767
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  9. #2798
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    Technical analysis on USDX for May 3, 2018

    The Dollar index continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Trend remains bullish as price remains inside the bullish channel. The warnings from the RSI bearish divergence are still there but now we have also another reason to exit longs. Price has reached very close to the triangle breakout target.



    Black lines - triangle

    Blue lines - triangle breakout target

    The Dollar index is above the Ichimoku cloud. Price has reached the triangle breakout target very closely. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 95.15 is also around this area so Dollar bulls should be very cautious at current levels. Trend remains bullish as long as price is above the Daily cloud at 90. A break below it opens the way for a push to new lows below 88.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    ---------- Post added 05-04-2018 at 10:46 AM ---------- Previous post was 05-03-2018 at 11:05 AM ----------

    Technical analysis on Gold for May 4, 2018

    Gold price remains inside the bearish channel. Price bounced yesterday but was unable to break out of the bearish channel. Price got rejected and is pulling back. I expect price to make new lows towards $1,300-$1,290 today and reverse to the upside.



    Blue lines - bearish channel

    Blue upward sloping line - bullish divergence

    Yellow rectangle - target for reversal Gold price has short-term resistance at $1,319 and support at $1,295.

    The RSI continues to diverge and a new lower low might provide the final divergence signal. I'm medium-term bullish Gold looking for a new low with divergence in the RSI to be bought for a reversal at least towards $1,330.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114968
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  10. #2799
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    Technical analysis on USDX for May 15, 2018

    The Dollar index is bouncing after a couple days of a bearish reversal towards 92. I do not expect the index to make new highs. Resistance by the Ichimoku cloud is at 92.90 and I expect the price to get rejected there today and turn lower. Support is at 92.25-92.15.



    My first target for this pullback is at 91.80 and next at 90.80 where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is found. Short-term support is at 92.50. Breaking below it will increase chances of moving to new weekly lows towards 91.80. If resistance at 92.90 is broken, we could see a test of the highs at 93.40. I'm bearish the Dollar.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/115813

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    ---------- Post added 05-16-2018 at 09:41 AM ---------- Previous post was 05-15-2018 at 09:54 AM ----------

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 16, 2018



    EUR/JPY - 4 Hourly

    EUR/JPY has resumed its downtrend towards the ideal target-area between 123.33 - 125.32.

    With wave iv in place at 131.27, the final decline in wave C of (E) is now developing. The next minor support is seen at 129.96 and a break below here should accelerate the decline in wave iii/ of v lower to 128.80 and likely even closer to 128.40 as the next downside targets.

    The former support at 130.73 has now transformed into resistance and is expected to cap the upside.

    R3: 131.13

    R2: 130.98

    R1: 130.73

    Pivot: 130.54

    S1: 130.28

    S2: 129.96

    S3: 129.64

    Trading recommendation:

    We took profit at 130.70 and booked a nice little profit of 52 pips. We sold EUR again at 130.95 and has placed our stop at 131.20.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/115925
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  12. #2800
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 17, 2018



    EUR/NZD - 4

    Hourly We were looking for upside acceleration, but important resistance at 1.7310 once again proved to be strong to break and the bulls gave up the effort to conquest this resistance. Instead, the bears turned EUR/NZD 180 degrees around and managed to break below short-term important support at 1.7056 indicating that wave ii/ still is developing. This means more downside closer to the 169.19 - 169.55 area should be expected before wave ii/ finally completes and is ready to surrender itself to the next rally higher in wave iii/, towards 1.7474 and 1.7832 as the next upside targets.

    R3: 1.7158

    R2: 1.7129

    R1: 1.7097

    Pivot: 1.7068

    S1: 1.7044

    S2: 1.6989

    S3: 1.6955

    Trading recommendation:

    Our stop at 1.7090 was hit for a profit of 126 pips. We will wait for a new EUR buying opportunity at 1.6965 or upon a break above resistance at 1.7188.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/116061

    ---------- Post added 05-18-2018 at 07:13 AM ---------- Previous post was 05-17-2018 at 12:54 PM ----------

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 18, 2018



    As EUR/JPY unexpectedly took out minor resistance at 130.73, we were told, that the wave iv is still developing and the final decline in the wave v closer to the target-area between 123.33 and 125.32 is being delayed.

    Yesterday we said, that a break above minor resistance at 130.73 would call for a more complex correction in the wave iv and likely a rally to 131.68 and this still holds true, but we also need to be open to another complex corrective pattern, which is a triangle consolidation. If minor resistance near 131.15 is able to cap the upside for a break below 130.56, then this corrective pattern will be the preferred count for the wave iv and a dip closer to 130.05 will be expected in the wave c of the triangle.

    R3: 131.68

    R2: 131.37

    R1: 131.15

    Pivot: 130.75

    S1: 130.56

    S2: 130.27

    S3: 130.04

    Trading recommendation: Our stop at 130.80 was hit for a small profit of 15 pips. We will be looking for another selling opportunity at 131.50.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/116195
    Best Regards,
    PR Manager
    InstaForex Companies Group

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