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Thread: Wave Analysis by InstaForex

  1. #2791
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    Euro buyers need to be very careful

    Yesterday, a number of good fundamental data on the US economy had a good support for the US dollar and statements by representatives of the Fed, which are scheduled for this week, gave even more optimism to investors. For example, a representative of the Fed, Evans, said yesterday that the regulator could continue to gradually increase interest rates, even though there is no risk of excessive acceleration of inflation. Charles Evans also voiced anxiety about the uncertainty regarding foreign trade policies, which could carry risks to the US economy. His colleague in charge, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams, also remains optimistic about the rates and growth pace of the US economy. However, Williams sees the risks for the growth of the US economy in the next few years, which are mainly tied to the foreign trade policy of the White House. First of all, according to the president of the FRS San Francisco, under the negative impact of the current policy of Trump, there will be companies and ordinary consumers. According to Williams, he expects that the GDP growth rate this year will average 2.5%. Fed President Philadelphia Harker did not comment on the situation associated with the prospects for monetary policy, saying only that unemployment is now below the natural level, which is a good signal for the Federal Reserve System. For today, there is a planned release of a number of important fundamental statistics for the euro area, including inflation, which may determine the further direction in the EURUSD pair at the end of the week. As for the technical prospects, while the trade is above the lower border of the rising channel, which is currently taking place in the area of 1.2340, there is no special reason to worry about the further growth of the euro. However, its breakthrough will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders of large buyers, which will quickly pull the euro down to levels of 1.2300 and 1.2270. In case of further growth, problems for bulls can occur at the levels of 1.2380 and 1.2420. The Japanese yen ignored good data on Japan's export growth and continued its decline against the US dollar. According to the report of the Ministry of Finance, Japan's exports in March 2018 grew as a result of good foreign demand, mainly for cars and equipment. Thus, exports increased by 2.1% compared to the same period of the previous year, while economists forecast a larger increase of 4.9%. Japan's foreign trade surplus in March amounted to 797.3 billion yen against 440 billion yen from economists predicted.



    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/203756

    ---------- Post added 04-19-2018 at 07:39 AM ---------- Previous post was 04-18-2018 at 09:41 AM ----------

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April, 19 2018



    Wave iv/ is pushing the limit. A rally above the low of wave i/ at 1.6981 can not be allowed, or the preferred count will be invalidated. We do expect important resistance at 1.6981 to remain untouched and will be looking for a break below short-term support at 1.6861 soon, to confirm a top being in place for renewed downside pressure towards the 1.6625 target.

    R3: 1.6981

    R2: 1.6957

    R1: 1.6925

    Pivot: 1.6861

    S1: 1.6844

    S2: 1.6815

    S3: 1.6755

    Trading recommendation: Our stop at 1.6915 was hit for a 70 pips loss. We will sell EUR at 1.6920 or upon a break below 1.6861. Our stop will be placed at 1.6985.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/113704
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    PR Manager
    InstaForex Companies Group

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  3. #2792
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    The sterling has every chance to continue its decline

    The British pound again fell in the wake of a sell-off due to the release of weak data on retail sales and volume in the UK.

    According to the data presented, the base retail sales index in March fell by 0.5% against the forecast of a decline by 0.4% and the February growth by 0.4%. In annual terms, the indicator in growth fell to 1.1% against expectations of growth of 1.4% and the previous value of 1.2%. The retail sales in annual terms fell to 1.1% against the forecast of growth of 2.0% and the previous value of 1.5%, and its March value fell more than expected, by 1.2%, against 0.5% and February growth by 1.5%.

    First, after the publication of the data, sterling, oddly enough, even received support and began to gain against the US dollar. Such dynamics of the market can be explained by the general weakness of the US dollar and the likely desire of a number of large market players to take advantage of the low activity of market participants and "collect orders" for those whose bet on the selling of the GBPUSD pair. But everything already fell into place in the Asian trading session, the pair fell more than one figure and "lies" at the support level of the short-term uptrend.

    Assessing the prospects for the Bank of England, we note that it faces a difficult task, which, it seems, will force itself to refrain from deciding to raise interest rates at the June meeting. The reason for this is the latest data of economic statistics, which indicated not only a drop in inflationary pressures, but also a general decline in economic growth, as the latest GDP data show.

    Another strong negative for the British pound is the unresolved issue of Britain's withdrawal from the EU. After the active negotiation process in the winter of this year, in the spring everything was quiet. The British agreed on a transition period, but it seems that they have failed to reduce the financial compensation of the EU, which has a negative impact on the country's economy, of course, apart from the very factor of the severance of many economic ties between Britain and continental Europe.

    It is likely that we will witness a new wave of a decline in sterling.

    Forecast of the day:

    The GBPUSD is trading above 1.4065 on a wave of expectations that the Bank of England will continue the cycle of raising interest rates in the near future. Estimating this, we can assume that the pair after overcoming the mark of 1.4065 will then fall to 1.3960.

    The USDCAD pair continues to grow towards our target level of 1.270 amid the Canadian CBA's lack of desire to raise rates. The pair also supports and stops the rise in oil prices after reaching a local peak. Most likely, if the pair overcomes the level of 1.2700, its growth will continue to 1.2800, if the price of oil again unfolds upwards.





    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/203918
    Best Regards,
    PR Manager
    InstaForex Companies Group

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