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Thread: Wave Analysis by InstaForex
  1. #2961
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    EUR/USD. Spotlight on China and Brexit

    The economic calendar of the foreign exchange market is nearly empty today. Nevertheless, the most important release of the day caused quite a strong resonance among traders. We are talking about the publication of data on the state of China's foreign trade.

    The importance of this indicator is due to the general concern of investors about the slowdown in the world economy. Any facts that somehow confirm this concern have a strong impact on the dynamics of trading – both in the currency and stock market. Today's figures once again reminded the market of the consequences of the trade war, which is still ongoing, despite the intention of the parties to conclude a broad deal.

    On the one hand, the surplus of Chinese foreign trade was at an impressive level – the December figure came out at 57.1 billion dollars, reaching a three-year high. Immediately after the publication, the market was optimistic about these figures. But the structure of this release is frankly disappointed, as the performance of imports and exports showed weak dynamics, continuing the trend of slowdown. Thus, according to China's General Administration of Customs, exports from the country (in dollar terms) fell by 4.4% year-on-year. Imports fell more significantly-immediately by 7.6% year-on-year. In other words, Chinese exports and imports in the last month of last year showed the sharpest decline in two years.



    According to experts, the lion's share of Chinese imports is imported into the country not for final consumption, but for further production of goods. That is, a significant decrease in imports is a wake-up call, which indicates the upcoming slowdown in the Chinese economy as a whole. According to preliminary data, last year the Chinese economy grew by only 6.6% - this is the lowest rate in the last 19 years. Naturally, such weak results of the second world economy in nominal GDP will provoke a "domino effect". In particular, at the end of last year, the head of Apple sharply reduced the forecast for revenue for the first quarter of 2019 – by 8 percent, that is, from 91 to 84 billion dollars. It is noteworthy that Apple has revised downward quite a fresh forecast: the target of 91 billion was set just two months ago. According to Tim Cook, the negative dynamics associated with the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the "tough" policy of the Federal Reserve.

    The situation with Apple is just one example, which is the most recent and revealing. If the economic momentum of the PRC continues to lose its strength, such situations will be repeated more often, not to mention the slowdown of the commodity market with all the ensuing consequences.

    A broad trade deal between the US and China could change this state of affairs – at least in the long run. But the parties are in no hurry to disclose the details of the latest negotiations, although the officials promised to publish them "in the near future". More than a week has passed since then, but the cart is still there. The very fact of such silence suggests certain thoughts, the essence of which is reduced to the presence of unresolved problems between Washington and Beijing. And although all this is still speculation, the overall situation in the market remains uncertain.

    The EUR/USD pair also cannot determine the vector of its movement. The dollar index drifted at the base of 95 points, and the European currency is under pressure from the uncertain prospects of Brexit and negative data on the growth of industrial production in the eurozone. The indicator came out much worse than expected: year-on-year at – 3.3% (with a forecast of -2.2%), and month-on-month at –1.7% (with a growth forecast of 0.3%). In France, this figure subsided due to long-term protests of "yellow vests" in Germany – because of problems in the automotive industry, and a general decline in the entire industry was recorded in Italy.



    Conflicting fundamental picture does not allow EURUSD to demonstrate a strong momentum, so traders have to bargain in a flat in anticipation of a strong infopovod. It is obvious that Brexit, or rather today's discussion of this issue in the British Parliament, will become such an occasion.

    At the moment, it is known that the European Union has sent a written appeal to London, which assures the British that the subsequent negotiations in the transition period will avoid the use of the backstop mechanism. In the evening, during Theresa May's speech to the Parliament, we will learn the details of this letter, and so far the market is in limbo – and regarding the prospects of the "divorce process", and regarding the prospects of the US-Chinese trade conflict.



    On the technical side, the EUR/USD bulls need to gain a foothold above 1.1530 to demonstrate their advantage. In this case, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator on the daily chart will form a bullish "Parade of lines" signal , increasing the probability of price growth to the borders of the 16th figure. If the general interest in the risk fades, the pair may already return to the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1, that is, to the level of 1.1410. A break of this level will send the pair to the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud, that is, to the level of 1.1350.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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  3. #2962
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    EUR/USD: Italy, Draghi, Brexit

    The foreign exchange market in anticipation of key events of today, month, and possibly - the year. The British Parliament will deliver its verdict on Brexit late tonight (and possibly late at night), so today's trading is cautious and quite volatile. In particular, at the beginning of the US session, the euro/dollar pair surprised traders with a downward impulse toward the founding of the 14th figure. Considering the fact that the pound was relatively calm at the same time, it was possible to conclude that Brexit had nothing to do with it.

    Later it became known that the single currency reacted so keenly to the statements of the Italian prime minister, who criticized the European Central Bank. Italy again reminded of itself, although traders turned over this Chapter at the end of last year, when Rome and Brussels agreed on a budget, thus preventing a disciplinary procedure. However, now conflict situations have arisen in a somewhat different plane. The fact is that the ECB is seriously concerned about the state of the Italian banking sector, especially after a number of recent events. I recall that in early January, the European regulator took control of the tenth largest bank in Italy, Banca Carige. The European Central Bank has appointed three temporary administrators and a supervisory committee, thereby replacing the bank's board of directors.



    And here it is worth noting that Banca Carige is one of the most troubled Italian banks, which was provided with assistance in the amount of 320 million euros from the Italian Interbank Fund last fall. But because of the frankly inept management and the conflict of shareholders, the bank failed to restructure and get rid of "bad" debts. The Fitch rating agency, in turn, lowered the bank's credit rating to CCC + with a negative outlook, while warning that Carige could go bankrupt. As a result, the Italian National Commission on Companies and Stock Exchanges ceased trading in bank shares, as the board of directors wereunable to reach an agreement on raising capital. This was the last straw for the majority of the members of the Board of Carige, after which the leadership was transferred to the temporary administrators appointed by the European Central Bank. By the way, after that, both Italian and German government bonds collapsed, putting significant pressure on the euro.

    The above situation did not remain without consequences. Two weeks later, that is, today, the ECB demanded that Italian banks prepare reserves to cover the so-called "bad loans" for seven years. Italy's Vice Prime Minister Silvio Matteo "with hostility" took this demand, calling it "irresponsible." In his opinion, the European regulator demonstrates double standards and abuses its powers, using them for political purposes. He also noted that the central bank's intervention on banks which are "undesirable", can be an expensive cost for Italy- Matteo announced the amount of 15 billion euros. In addition, the Italian Deputy prime minister warned that the European regulator by its actions could provoke political and financial instability in the country.

    Such harsh statements came as a complete surprise, so the single currency reacted accordingly. Mario Draghi, who spoke today in the European Parliament, added fuel to the fire. He said that the latest macroeconomic indicators turned out to be "much weaker" than forecasts, and this fact suggests that stimulating the economy through soft monetary policy is "still necessary."



    He also said that the regulator will pursue an accommodation policy in the foreseeable future until inflation rises to the target level. Given the fact that inflation has recently shown only negative dynamics, it is not difficult to build an appropriate logical chain. In other words, the chances of an ECB rate hike within the current year are melting before our eyes, especially in the face of uncertain prospects for Brexit.

    By the way, it was Brexit's question that put pressure on the pound and the dollar in the second half of today: and the closer the time to "X hour", the more volatility is expected in the market, and for no apparent reason. For example, the dollar index fluctuated without any enthusiasm throughout the day, but by the end of the day it soared up, although the producer price index in the United States and the Empire Manufacturing index were worse than expected (the last figure dropped to 1.5-year lows). The general nervousness of the market affects the dynamics of the US currency, although there are still no significant reasons for strengthening the greenback.

    All this suggests that before a vote in the British Parliament, traders are best to take a wait-and-see attitude: events in London will have an impact not only on the pound or the euro, but also determine the mood of the entire foreign exchange market.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  4. #2963
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    GBP/USD. Results of the day. Cancel Brexit, Brexit transfer, new Brexit negotiations?



    The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 94p - 73p - 156p - 112p - 246p.

    Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 136p (106p).

    The British pound sterling on Wednesday, January 16th, is not moving. Traders, with such a feeling, do not know what to do next. On the one hand, yesterday, a fateful decision was made for Britain. On the other hand, the situation with Brexit did not become clearer. It only became clear that the UK is not exactly leaving the EU according to the Chequers plan. However, whether it will leave the European Union at all and under what conditions it is now is unknown. Today on the agenda in the British Parliament is the question of distrust of Theresa May, initiated by the leader of the main opposition party (Labour), Jeremy Corbyn. If the majority of deputies vote in favor, Theresa May will be dismissed. We believe that this is exactly what will happen. But again, it is not known how traders will react to this event. From our point of view, the resignation of Theresa May will give a chance for new negotiations with the EU, perhaps more productive and beneficial for the United Kingdom, as well as a chance for the country not to leave the EU at all. Thus, Theresa May's resignation could provoke ... the growth of the British currency. In any case, it is best to wait for the evening and find out how the debate in Parliament will end. Inflation, published today in the UK, did not cause any reaction from the market, as it corresponded to the predicted value - 2.1% y/y in December. In his speech today, the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, noted that the loss of Theresa May and the strengthening of the British pound means that markets believe in reducing the chances of a disorderly exit of the country from the EU.

    Trading recommendations:

    The GBP/USD currency pair remains in an upward trend on the eve of a new vote in the British Parliament. Once again, we do not recommend opening any positions in the current situation, as it is associated with increased risks. The pair can again be extremely volatile in the next few hours.

    The same applies to sell orders. Any positions you can open, aware of the increased risks and always placing protective Stop Loss orders.

    In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

    Explanation of illustration:
    Ichimoku Indicator: Tenkan-sen-red line. Kijun-sen – blue line.
    Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
    Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
    Chikou span – green line.
    Bollinger Bands Indicator:
    3 yellow lines.
    MACD:
    Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  5. #2964
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    EC and the United States: a new trade war between the EU and the USA is very close



    The European currency again failed to gain a foothold above key resistance levels and began to gradually lose ground against the US dollar in the afternoon after the release of a good report on the US labor market, as well as before the publication of the report of the US Department of Commerce, in which the import of cars from the European Union will be important.

    The trade war is gaining momentum.

    It is expected that in the above report it will be clear whether US President Donald Trump will return to a protectionist policy towards the EU, since from an economic point of view, the import of cars is strategically important and can pose a threat to US national security. For example, last year tariffs on Chinese goods were introduced in this way.

    Even today, EU authorities have imposed restrictions on the import of steel in order to combat the consequences of US trade policy, which makes it possible for the US president to verify the need for import duties on metals, which were introduced last year by the United States.

    The European Commission said that the new measures involve the introduction of quotas on imports of 26 categories of goods, as well as 25% duty on imports in excess of this quota. This decision will take effect from February 4 and will replace the temporary solution, which was introduced in July 2018.

    Today's data on inflation in the eurozone, as yesterday in Germany, fully coincided with the forecasts of economists, which is likely to force the European Central Bank to adhere to a wait-and-see approach at a meeting to be held next week. However, the main focus, of course, will be shifted towards the deterioration of the growth prospects of the European economy in 2019.

    According to the statistics agency, the consumer price index CPI of the eurozone in December this year remained unchanged and year-on-year grew by 1.6%, fully coinciding with the forecasts of economists. The Core CPI core consumer price index, which does not take into account volatile categories, rose 0.5% in December compared to November and 1.0% year-on-year. The consumer price index of the eurozone excluding tobacco products in December was 1.5%.

    The US labor market data provided some support to the US dollar. According to a report from the US Department of Labor, the number of initial jobless claims for the week from 6 to 12 January fell by 3,000 to 213,000. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 220,000.

    Activity increased in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States in January. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the index of business activity rose to 17.0 points in January 2019 against 9.1 points in December, while economists had expected the index to reach 8.0 points in January. The report notes that companies remain optimistic for the next six months, with more than 46% of the companies surveyed expecting increased activity.

    As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the bears are trying to resume the downward movement in the market after an unsuccessful attempt of bulls to return to the game. The breakout of 1.1375 may lead to a larger decline in risky assets with the update of the lows of 1.1340 and 1.1310. In the case of another false breakout at 1.1375, the bulls may be willing to return, which will lead to a powerful upward momentum with a test and a breakthrough of the intermediate resistance of 1.1415 and the main goal of updating a high of 1.1450.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  6. #2965
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    Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Jan 21, 2019



    Today, Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Resistance. 3: 110.20.
    Resistance. 2: 109.98.
    Resistance. 1: 109.77.
    Support. 1: 109.50.
    Support. 2: 109.29.
    Support. 3: 109.07. (Disclaimer)

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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  8. #2966
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    British Triangle: Tory, Whigs and Theresa May

    Tonight (at about 15:30 London time) Theresa May will again try to convince the British Parliament to support her deal with Brussels. In anticipation of this event, the pound is behaving extremely cautious after a significant decline on Friday. At the end of last week, the pound slumped in a matter of hours by more than a hundred points, as the initial optimism was replaced by habitual pessimism. Today, the mood of traders has not improved: judging by the rhetoric of May's entourage, she does not intend to postpone Brexit's term, not excluding the "hard" scenario.



    A new vote on the updated version of the agreement with the European Union will be held in the House of Commons on January 29. But here it is worth noting that the British can demonstrate increased volatility today, that is, until the key moment of the vote. The fact is that many market participants are worried that the government will only make superficial changes to the original version of the agreement, keeping the key points unchanged. Such fears are logically justified - for several days it is simply impossible to prepare an alternative deal, eliminating the positions agreed with the EU. This means that the transaction will retain its design, and all changes will be only of a formal nature.

    According to most experts, Theresa May will present a new version of the resolution of the Irish border problem today. This issue is the main stumbling block that impedes the approval of the transaction. Having enlisted the support of the deputies, she will actually go to Brussels with an ultimatum: either the European Union will make concessions, or Brexit will follow the "hard" scenario, without concluding a deal. That is why May categorically rejects the option of postponing Brexit date - in this case, the whole point of the ultimatum of negotiations is lost.

    According to available information, the British prime minister will propose to conclude a separate agreement between Britain and Ireland. In this document, the parties will fix the details and terms of the special border regime with Northern Ireland. By and large, we are talking about those legal guarantees from the EU, which have been talked about for so long in the British parliament. It is quite probable that the deputies of the House of Commons will support this scenario - however, it is absolutely impossible to count on the same support from Brussels. First, the Europeans initially stated that they would not revise the agreement reached. Secondly, the idea of London to conclude a bilateral agreement on the border has already been rejected by Ireland.

    Therefore, even if the British deputies today support the above proposal of May, the pound can ignore this fact or even react with a decline - after all, this scenario is not viable, given the position of Brussels and Dublin.

    But if the House of Commons supports the idea of extending the 50th article of the Lisbon Treaty, then the British currency can demonstrate a strong enough northern impulse. And although the Theresa May government is categorically against this option, this does not mean that it cannot be realized. The previous polls suggest that the prime minister's opponents can, in a fit of unity, take the necessary decisions, regardless of party affiliation.



    For example, not only Labour, but some Conservatives also voted for amendments to tax legislation. More than 100 Conservatives voted against the original deal, in unison with the Labour Party. And this is not a complete list of situations when representatives of the Tories find agreement with representatives of Whigs And in this case, they can also vote in harmony, trying, on the one hand, to avoid the chaotic Brexit, and on the other hand, to force May to return to the negotiating table with Brussels.

    There is one more scenario, in which the Parliament will gain control over the negotiation process. However, in the context of today, this scenario is unlikely - they can return to it in case of a failed vote on January 29.

    Thus, today's statement by the prime minister in the British Parliament will not be formal. Moreover, the presented "Plan B" will make it possible to understand in what direction the subsequent events will develop - either the prime minister will rely on Brussels, or will nevertheless try to convince her party members.

    In any case, Brexit continues to be the number one topic for the GBP/USD pair, so you should not focus on the release of tomorrow's data on the growth of the labor market in Britain. Published figures may provide temporary support for the pound (forecasts are mostly optimistic), but the initial reaction may be a trap. Representatives of the Bank of England have repeatedly stated that the prospects of monetary policy directly depend on the prospects of the "divorce process", so macroeconomic data in this context play a secondary role.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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