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Thread: Wave Analysis by InstaForex

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    BITCOIN Analysis for March 28, 2018

    Bitcoin has been quite indecisive recently having a daily candle close with a bullish gain below $8,500 price area. There have been no high impact fundamentals on Bitcoin recently. As a result, the price is now going through a corrective phase with indecision. The Bitcoin market is currently marked with low liquidity and expected to correct itself for a while before it pushes much lower in the coming days. There are watchdogs which are still trying to regulate the Bitcoin and some countries are banning the Bitcoin exchanges and trading. However, the sustainability of Bitcoin provides an indication of its strength against all the odds in the market currently. As for the current scenario, the price is expected to retest $8,500 price area before it progresses much lower towards $7,500 and later towards $5,500 in the short term. The impulsive bearish pressure can be only observed after $7,500 price area is taken out with a daily close in the coming days. Otherwise, the market is expected to consolidate between $7,500 to $8,500 area.



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    Bitcoin analysis for 03/04/2018

    During the meeting with the legislative arm of Taiwan, the head of the Central Bank, Yang Chin-long, was asked about how the banking authorities will respond to the current lack of transparency in the trade of cryptocurrencies in this country. The discussion was intensified mainly by recent price drops, in accordance with the news given by the Central Taiwan Agency. Answering the parliamentary MP's questions, the Governor of Taiwan said that the Central Bank has increased its efforts to monitor volatile movements of Bitcoin prices and will issue warnings to investors about the risk of cryptocurrency transactions. In addition, Yang said the banking body suggested to the Taiwanese Ministry of Justice that cryptocurrency transactions should be regulated in accordance with the applicable anti-money laundering (AML) regulations in the financial sector.The case remains open and it is not known whether the suggestion will be supported by the ministry, but it is to be the last move of the Taiwanese authorities in implementing BTC regulations. Earlier this month, the finance minister of the island, Sheu Yu-jer, expressed the belief that cryptocurrencies - which are treated like virtual goods - should be taxed in Taiwan. He added that the agency is currently investigating how to implement the appropriate taxation rules. Jang's comments appeared just after other Asian governments, such as South Korea and Malaysia, have already taken action to regulate cryptocurrencies under the anti-money laundering rules to prevent financial crimes. Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the level of $6,400 and now is testing the technical resistance at the level of $7,245, just above the weekly pivot at the level of $7,146. the bounce from the level of $6,400 seems solid, so if the level of $7,245 is broken, then the bulls might push the price higher towards the level of $8,000. Bullish divergence supports the upward view.



    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/112379

    ---------- Post added 04-04-2018 at 07:59 AM ---------- Previous post was 04-03-2018 at 09:17 AM ----------

    AUD/USD Approaching Resistance, Lookout For a Reversal

    The price is approaching its major resistance at 0.7712 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 100% Fibonacci extension, 100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where we expect a reversal, pushing price down to its support at 0.7642 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (89, 5, 3) sees resistance at 96% where we expect a corresponding reversal. A bearish divergence with price has also been identified which adds to our bearish bias. Sell below 0.7712. Stop loss at 0.7754. Take profit at 0.7642.



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    Bitcoin analysis for 05/04/2018

    In the first quarter of 2018, cryptocurrency markets lost just over 48 percent of their value on January 1, and total capitalization dropped from around $ 612 billion to $ 261 billion in the first quarter. The Ripple Price (XRP) - one of the five largest cryptocurrencies listed on CoinMarketCap - fell by almost 78 percent, whose valuation unit is at $ 0.51, compared to January 1, at about $ 2.30. The second largest drop in terms of percentage is Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which lost about 73 percent of its value. In January, its price was around $ 2,543, today it is about $ 697. Litecoin (LTC) fell by about 49 percent from the price of January 1, when it cost about $ 231, where today it is around $ 118. The leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, survived the worst first quarters since their inception. The price of Bitcoin fell by about 52 percent from January 1, when the price was around $ 14,122, to about $ 6,890 on March 31.

    ETH, which was sold at around $ 755 on January 1. It fell by about 48 percent, to around $ 394 on March 31. The fall in prices in all sectors can be attributed to the increase in regulatory regulation by various global entities, including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the control of Japanese unregistered cryptocurrency exchanges following the attack on Coincheck and Twitter, Facebook, and Google banning cryptography-related ads. Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame.

    Despite the initial breakout through the short-term descending trend line, the price was capped at the nearest technical resistance at the level of $7,500 and returned back to the local lows again. Any violation of the technical support at the level of $6,400 will lead to the test of the recent swing low at the level of $5,820.



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    Global macro overview for 06/04/2018

    On Friday morning, the US Dollar was valued at over 4.05 Turkish Lira. Previously, the USD/TRY exchange rate reached its historic maximum at 4.0657. Over the past 12 months, the Turkish currency has weakened against the dollar by 8.5 percent, and for three years lost as much as 36% of its value. Looking at the long-term chart, one can come to the conclusion that the Turkish currency is actually on a permanent downward trend. But it intensified after the unsuccessful military coup of July 2016. The attempted coup proved unsuccessful, and as a result, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan carried out purges in the state apparatus, education, and media, including practically the Sultan rule in Turkey. At the same time, the Turkish economy is facing serious structural problems. Although the GDP growth rate is 7.3% (in Q4) and it may be impressive, the country is struggling with serious macroeconomic imbalances. The first symptom is the rapidly growing current account deficit, which in January deepened to USD 7.1 billion against USD 2.7 billion a year earlier. This means that Turkish enterprises and households are getting heavily indebted abroad. Secondly, investors are worried by the price rally, which in March amounted to 10.23% towards 10.26%. in February. CPI inflation at double-digit level has been in Turkey for over a year. And there are not very clear views about anything that could be improved in the near future. The Turkish central bank remains under strong political pressure not to raise interest rates. Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture at the daily time frame. The market is still in the uptrend the recent high was made at the level of 4.0600. This might not be the end of the advance, as there is a Fibonacci extension target level located at 4.0850. The momentum remains strong, but first clues of a potential bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator are present.



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    Bitcoin analysis for 09/04/2018

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced in a statement on the development and regulatory policies, that it was considering issuing its own central bank digital currency (CBDC). RBI set up an inter-ministerial group to explore the potential benefits and feasibility of the CBDC, which will present its findings in the report in June 2018, the statement."Technological innovations, including virtual currencies, have the potential to improve the efficiency and integrity of the financial system." - said Bibhu Prasad Kanungo, deputy RBI governor. The information appeared despite the bank's earlier announcement that it prohibits all regulated entities from providing services to users, traders or holders of cryptocurrencies. The RBI position - a pro-state cryptocurrency and a decentralized cryptocurrency - represents a broader trend among international central banks. One of the solutions to potential problems of central banks, such as money laundering, is the co-optation of Blockchain technology by the institutions themselves, as Kanungo emphasized: "We are aware that Blockchain technology has potential benefits for the financial sector and we believe that it should be encouraged to use it for the benefit of the economy." Already in 2016, the Bank of England and the People's Bank of China analyzed the possibility of issuing their own digital currencies, together with over 90 central banks testing DLT technology in the same year. In 2017, the Bank of Canada published extensive research on the benefits of CBDC, and already in the first months of 2018, banks in Malaysia, Taiwan, Poland, and Switzerland, they conducted research on the use of Blockchain systems. Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is hovering around the weekly pivot at the level of $6,908 after the spike down towards the technical support at the level of $6,402 was unsuccessful. The nearest technical resistance is still seen at the level of $7,442, just above the weekly pivot resistance at the level of $7,333. The whole impulsive rally will get invalidated when the price will break through the level of $5,829.



    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/112763
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ifxbuk View Post
    Bitcoin analysis for 09/04/2018

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced in a statement on the development and regulatory policies, that it was considering issuing its own central bank digital currency (CBDC). RBI set up an inter-ministerial group to explore the potential benefits and feasibility of the CBDC, which will present its findings in the report in June 2018, the statement."Technological innovations, including virtual currencies, have the potential to improve the efficiency and integrity of the financial system." - said Bibhu Prasad Kanungo, deputy RBI governor. The information appeared despite the bank's earlier announcement that it prohibits all regulated entities from providing services to users, traders or holders of cryptocurrencies. The RBI position - a pro-state cryptocurrency and a decentralized cryptocurrency - represents a broader trend among international central banks. One of the solutions to potential problems of central banks, such as money laundering, is the co-optation of Blockchain technology by the institutions themselves, as Kanungo emphasized: "We are aware that Blockchain technology has potential benefits for the financial sector and we believe that it should be encouraged to use it for the benefit of the economy." Already in 2016, the Bank of England and the People's Bank of China analyzed the possibility of issuing their own digital currencies, together with over 90 central banks testing DLT technology in the same year. In 2017, the Bank of Canada published extensive research on the benefits of CBDC, and already in the first months of 2018, banks in Malaysia, Taiwan, Poland, and Switzerland, they conducted research on the use of Blockchain systems. Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is hovering around the weekly pivot at the level of $6,908 after the spike down towards the technical support at the level of $6,402 was unsuccessful. The nearest technical resistance is still seen at the level of $7,442, just above the weekly pivot resistance at the level of $7,333. The whole impulsive rally will get invalidated when the price will break through the level of $5,829.



    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/112763
    Hello sir,
    I found some other threads on your form that belong to Bitcoin analysis, so why this person make additional analysis here? I just want to know this is separate version of analysis or this user make entries in wrong section.

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    Wave analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair. Weekly review



    Analysis of wave counting: Trades of the past week the EUR/USD pair began with a slowly developing downward movement and, having lost in price more than 100 percentage point, reached the level of 1.2215 on Friday. The resulting wave situation makes it possible to assume that the currency pair has confirmed the transition to the stage of formation of the future wave c, in a, in B, in (C). If this is the case, then the currency pair has good prospects for lowering quotations to the level of the 21st figure, although on a more complex inclined direction.

    Targets for an upward wave option: 1.2400

    Targets for a downward wave option:

    1.2032 - 23.6% by Fibonacci

    1.1709 - 38.2% by Fibonacci

    General conclusions and trading recommendations:

    The trading instrument supposedly completed the construction of the upward trend section. The wave b, in a, in B, in (C) is also supposedly completed. If this is true, and this wave does not take a more complicated form, then the quotes decrease will continue with the targets located near the estimated marks of 1.2032 and 1.1709, which corresponds to 23.6% and 38.2%.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/203026
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    EUR/AUD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce

    EUR/AUD is approaching its support area at 1.5879 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) where we expect to see a bounce, pushing the price up all the way to its resistance at 1.5976 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 5.49% where we expect to see a corresponding bounce. A bullish divergence in price has also been identified which contributes to our bullish bias. Buy above 1.5879. Stop loss at 1.5839. Take profit at 1.5976.



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    Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 12, 2018



    USD/JPY is under pressure and expected to trade with bearish outlook. The pair retreated from 107.05 (the previous high) and broke below its 20-period moving average after touching the 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. Hence, as long as 107.25 is not surpassed, look for a return to 106.60 (lows of April 9 and 10). A break below of this level would trigger another decline to 106.40. Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades. Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 107.25, take profit at 106.60

    Resistance levels: 107.50, 107.75, and 108.00.

    Support levels: 106.60, 106.40, and 106.00.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/113141

    ---------- Post added 04-13-2018 at 07:29 AM ---------- Previous post was 04-12-2018 at 10:29 AM ----------

    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 13, 2018



    A final spike closer to 132.82 remains expected before renewed downside pressure is expected. Short-term, we will remain cautiously bullish for the spike to 132.82 as long as minor support at 131.75 is able to protect the downside, but from 132.82 or upon a break below minor support at 131.75 a new impulsive decline towards 128.93 and lower is expected.

    R3: 133.39

    R2: 132.82

    R1: 132.62

    Pivot: 132.05

    S1: 131.75

    S2: 131.65

    S3: 131.65

    Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 130.70. We will raise our stop+reverse to 131.70. Our take profit+reverse remains at 132.65

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/113213
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    Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 16, 2018



    Overview:

    The GBP/USD pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 1.4225 (the daily pivot point). Last week, the pair rose from the level of 1.4170 (the level of 1.4170 is coincided with the major support today) to the top around 1.4296. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.4364 followed by 1.4426, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.4170. According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.4225 and 1.4364; for that we expect a range of 139 pips (1.4364 - 1.4225) at least in coming days. If the GBP/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.4364, the market will decline further to 1.4170. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards 1.4170 with a view to test the daily support. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.4364, then the trend will continue to move towards the next target of 1.4426.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/113367

    ---------- Post added 04-17-2018 at 07:43 AM ---------- Previous post was 04-16-2018 at 10:42 AM ----------

    Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for April 17, 2018

    EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which engulfed the recent bearish pressure with a daily candle yesterday. The volatility in the EURUSD is still quite high and expected to have no definite trend momentum until 1.25 is broken above or 1.21 is broken below. Despite having worse economic reports EUR gained good momentum over USD recently which is expected to push higher in the coming days. Today EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.8 from the previous positive figure of 5.1, Italian Trade Balance report is expected to show an increase to 2.23B which previously was at -0.09B and ZEW Economic Sentiment report is expected to decrease to 7.3 from the previous figure of 13.4. On the other hand, today USD Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.33M from the previous figure of 1.30M, Housing Starts is also expected to increase to 1.27M from the previous figure of 1.24M, Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to have slight decrease to 77.9% from the previous value of 78.1% and Industrial Production report is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 1.1%. Moreover, today FOMC Member Williams and Quarles is going to speak about the nation's interest rate and monetary policy which is expected to be neutral in nature. As of the current scenario, both currencies in the pair is expected to have mixed economic results today and this week there is no further high impact economic reports or events to push the price into a definite trend but as the EUR is quite stronger in comparison to USD with the market sentiment, further bullish momentum is expected after certain retracement along the way in the coming days. Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.2350 which was recently broken below with a daily close showing good evidence of price proceeding lower. As of yesterday, after having a daily close above 1.2350 does signify previous bearish move as a false break which is currently expected to push the price much higher in the coming days with the target towards 1.2450-1.25 price area. As the price remains above 1.2350 area, the further bullish pressure is expected in this pair.



    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/113457

    ---------- Post added at 07:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:43 AM ----------

    Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for April 17, 2018

    EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which engulfed the recent bearish pressure with a daily candle yesterday. The volatility in the EURUSD is still quite high and expected to have no definite trend momentum until 1.25 is broken above or 1.21 is broken below. Despite having worse economic reports EUR gained good momentum over USD recently which is expected to push higher in the coming days. Today EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.8 from the previous positive figure of 5.1, Italian Trade Balance report is expected to show an increase to 2.23B which previously was at -0.09B and ZEW Economic Sentiment report is expected to decrease to 7.3 from the previous figure of 13.4. On the other hand, today USD Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.33M from the previous figure of 1.30M, Housing Starts is also expected to increase to 1.27M from the previous figure of 1.24M, Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to have slight decrease to 77.9% from the previous value of 78.1% and Industrial Production report is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 1.1%. Moreover, today FOMC Member Williams and Quarles is going to speak about the nation's interest rate and monetary policy which is expected to be neutral in nature. As of the current scenario, both currencies in the pair is expected to have mixed economic results today and this week there is no further high impact economic reports or events to push the price into a definite trend but as the EUR is quite stronger in comparison to USD with the market sentiment, further bullish momentum is expected after certain retracement along the way in the coming days. Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.2350 which was recently broken below with a daily close showing good evidence of price proceeding lower. As of yesterday, after having a daily close above 1.2350 does signify previous bearish move as a false break which is currently expected to push the price much higher in the coming days with the target towards 1.2450-1.25 price area. As the price remains above 1.2350 area, the further bullish pressure is expected in this pair.



    Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/113457
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