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Thread: Wave Analysis by InstaForex
  1. #2951
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    EUR/USD. Friday's Jackpot: Nonfarm and European inflation

    The foreign exchange market is experiencing a period of increased volatility, showing strong price impulses. The dollar/yen pair has passed more than 400 points in the last day, the pound/dollar – almost 150, the "kiwi" and "loonie" – about 100. In all cases, the dollar for some time significantly strengthened its position, but then just as rapidly fell throughout the market. This difference in mood is due to the changeable fundamental background, which is clearly confusing traders.



    The fact is that the dollar last year (especially in the second half of it) actively enjoyed the status of a defensive instrument – even the negative events in the United States increased the demand for the greenback. The US currency had a powerful trump card in the form of the hawkish policy of the Fed, especially against the background of the uncertainty of the rest of the central banks of the leading countries of the world. Now the situation has changed somewhat: the problems in the US are still growing like a snowball, but the position of the Federal Reserve has softened significantly. The results of the December Fed meeting will "chase" the dollar for a long time, especially if the key US economic indicators show a decline in the first half of the year. Some representatives of the American regulator, who had recently voiced the "hawkish" position, added fuel to the fire. Now their rhetoric has changed significantly.

    For example, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said today that the regulator should take a wait-and-see position for at least two quarters of 2019. The essence of his position boils down to the fact that the US-Chinese trade conflict has harmed not only the world economy and not only China – but also the United States. In view of this fact, he expects a slowdown in US GDP growth and inflation this year. The Fed, in his opinion, should react accordingly, so as not to aggravate the already precarious situation. Here it is worth recalling that in the autumn of last year Kaplan stated that 4 rounds of increase would follow to the neutral level of the rate (that is, the neutral level would be at the level of 3.25%). As we see, now his opinion has changed dramatically: now he stands for a six-month pause.

    If the rest of the Fed members move to the "dovish" camp in the same way, the dollar finally loses its foothold. In this context, it is important to listen to Jerome Powell, who will speak at the economic conference tomorrow with his predecessors, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke. If the incumbent Fed chief also softens his rhetoric (or at least repeats the main points of the December meeting), the dollar index will continue its downward trend.

    However, tomorrow is full of other events. First of all, we are talking about the Nonfarm, which can give an additional impetus to dollar pairs. According to preliminary estimates of experts, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector in December should increase by 180 thousand, while the unemployment rate will remain at the previous level of 3.7%. This is a good forecast, so if real numbers meet expectations, then the dollar will avoid another wave of sales.



    But as shown today, experts can make a big mistake in their estimates: the American manufacturing index ISM, contrary to all forecasts, fell to the mark of 54.1 - this is the weakest result since September 2016. This unexpected result discouraged dollar bulls, after which the EUR/USD pair was able to return to the 14th figure for a short time. If tomorrow's Nonfarm will present a similar "surprise", then the market reaction will be more extensive.

    Another important release on Friday is the dynamics of wages. The indicator of the average hourly wage in the USA has been fluctuating in the range of 0.1% to 0.3% (m/m) for a long time, although in annual terms the indicator has grown slightly (up to 3.1%). For EUR/USD bears, it is important that the indicator does not cross the zero line on a monthly basis and does not "dive" under the three percent mark in annual terms. This indicator is closely monitored by the Fed, so its negative dynamics will affect the position of the US currency.

    Also, we should not forget that tomorrow the release of data on the growth of European inflation is expected. The consensus forecast suggests that the consumer price index will drop again - to 1.8%. Core inflation should remain at the same level - 1%. Any deviations from the forecast scenario will cause strong volatility - depending on the direction in which the pendulum will swing. The recovery of inflation indicators will inspire the bulls of the EUR/USD pair, as the chances of a rise in the ECB rate this year will increase. If the price pressure continues to weaken, the euro will be too vulnerable - even against the background of an uncertain greenback.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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  3. #2952
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    Bitcoin analysis for 04/01/2019

    Statistical data from Blockchain and Bitcoin Wisdom confirm that the latest correction of the Bitcoin mining difficulty level has increased by almost 10 percent. "Difficulty" refers to the ease with which miners can solve equations to validate a block of transactions in Bitcoin Blockchain.

    The period from July brought recurring downward adjustments because Bitcoin's price dropped and miners needed lower costs to avoid losses. This year there were five downward revisions - one in July, one in October, one in November and two in December.

    The biggest change took place on December 3 - it was 15.1%. At that time BTC / USD was under strong pressure, due to the fact that the miners abandoned the network massively due to problems with profitability.

    Hashrate experienced declines since August, but the reduced difficulty caused a recovery around mid-December, which for some was a demonstration of Bitcoin's ability to take care of himself without central power.

    Meanwhile, many Bitcoin developers emphasized the decentralized nature of Bitcoin as something that would increase his "separation" from altcoins in 2019.

    Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has not moved much since the bounce from 50% Fibo at $3,643 and a failure to break through the technical resistance at $3,850. Currently, the price is consolidating around the level of $3,774 with the neutral market conditions. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $3,595.



    Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/131855
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  4. #2953
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    Global macro overview for 07/01/2019

    The US labor market report for December is solid. Employment in the non-agricultural sector increased by as much as 312,000, against a consensus at 184,000, and even against the most optimistic forecasts (225,000). This is the largest monthly increase since February of last year and suggests that the US economy has no problems with creating jobs. The global investors also got evidence of rising wage pressure, as salaries increased by 0.4% m / m, by 0.1 percentage point above forecasts. The unexpected increase in the unemployment rate at first glance looks negative, but it can also be evidence of the return of the unemployed to active job search, which would indicate a positive perception of the state of the economy.

    Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has a positive response to the data. EUR / USD in the first reaction fell by 40 pips to 1.1360, but already made up half of this move and is currently trading around the level of 1.1421, so the move down was only a spike. If the technical resistance at 1.1421 is clearly violated, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1442 and 1.1456. The momentum remains positive, but it is not pointing vertically to the north yet.


    Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/131957
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    Technical analysis for Gold for January 8, 2019

    Gold price is pulling back downwards towards $1,280. As we explained in our last analysis, there are a lot of chances that the entire pull back is not over and we could soon see another leg lower towards $1,270.



    Green rectangles - support areas

    Black lines - expected path

    Purple lines - bullish channel

    Gold price tried to break its recent highs but price got rejected and is pulling back down again. Support is at Friday's low at $1,276.50. If this level is broken, I expect Gold price to move towards $1,270 at least. Price remains inside the bullish channel making higher highs and higher lows. There is no sign of a trend reversal yet or the end of the uptrend.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/132084
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  6. #2955
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    Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, JAN 09, 2018

    In Asia, Japan will release the Average Cash Earnings y/y and the US will publish some economic data such as 10-y Bond Auction, and Crude Oil Inventories. So there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.



    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 109.46. Resistance. 2: 109.25. Resistance. 1: 109.04. Support. 1: 108.75. Support. 2: 108.55. Support. 3: 108.34.

    (Disclaimer)

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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  7. #2956
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    Technical analysis for Gold for January 10, 2019

    Gold price is challenging its recent highs. Price did not move as low as $1,270 as we initially expected maybe because the corrective pattern followed was a triangle. Trend remains bullish as long as price is inside the bullish channel.




    Green rectangles - support areas

    Purple lines - bullish channel

    Black lines - triangle pattern

    The medium-term trend in Gold remains bullish as long as we trade above the $1,240 area. Short-term target is a move above $1,300 maybe towards $1,320. Longer-term target is at $1,350 where we find a long-term resistance. Short-term support is at $1,275 and if broken we could see a move towards $1,265 at least if not lower. So far we have no warning signs from the RSI but we are very close to seeing the first bearish divergence. Bulls remain in control of the trend.

    Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/132346
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  8. #2957
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    Technical analysis for EUR/USD for January 10, 2019

    EUR/USD has finally broken above and out of the trading range it has been in for the last two months. This is a bullish sign. We could see a pullback as a back test towards 1.1450-1.1480 but I remain bullish on EUR/USD looking for at least a move towards 1.17.



    Light blue dots - medium strength support

    Blue dots - maximum strength support

    Green line - trend line support

    Blue lines - extension targets

    EUR/USD after three attempts at 1.15, buyers have finally broken above it and closed above it as well. We were favoring the bullish scenario despite being in a neutral sideways trend, because of the warning we had seen by the Daily RSI bullish divergence. Our target is now at 1.17 and any move higher will increase the chances of a major low to be in place at 1.1215 and a new up trend to start. A daily close below 1.1435 is something bulls do not want to see.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

  9. #2958
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    GBP/USD: do not succumb to the illusions of growth

    The pound/dollar pair is now extremely unreliable in the context of any forecasts – and in the short term, and even more so in the long term. The general weakness of the US currency can create the illusion of the northern trend of GBP/USD, but in this case it is absolutely impossible to focus on the dynamics of the dollar. "Cable "for two and a half years is completely subject to Brexit, so the vector of price movement here depends only on the fate of the "divorce process".

    However, sometimes emotional news related to the prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy still drowns out Brexit. One of those rare occasions happened yesterday. The resonant statement of the head of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta that the regulator can hypothetically reduce the interest rate coincided with the failure of the British parliament to vote for Theresa May's government. The GBP/USD pair remained in its positions (showing even the northern dynamics) only at the expense of the dollar that had sharply fallen throughout the market.

    Although in reality there are no reasons for optimism among bulls of the pair, and there was no. Although in reality there are no reasons for optimism among bulls of the pair, and there is no.



    On the one hand, the amendments adopted yesterday by British MPs do not entail any serious consequences - at least for today. Members of the House of Commons have adopted amendments to the tax law, thereby limiting the powers of the Cabinet of Ministers in this area in the event of the development of a "hard" Brexit scenario. Now the Ministry of Finance will not be able to change the amount of taxes (thus offsetting the negative effect of "hard" Brexit), if this step is not approved by the deputies. According to legislators, this rule will prevent the country's chaotic exit from the EU: "Now Theresa May must by all means reach a compromise solution with the European Union and the British Parliament," said Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

    The logic of this law is to "force negotiations": as many politicians believe, Theresa May has largely conceded to Brussels, and now "frightens" the Parliament by the lack of any alternative to the agreement reached. The above norm, in the opinion of the deputies, will incline the prime minister to additional negotiations with the EU.

    British MPs adopted another rule and is very significant of character. Parliament ordered the government to prepare a new Brexit plan if the members of the House of Commons do not vote on January 15 for the proposed draft deal. Moreover, ministers are obliged to present a "plan B" within three days after the failed vote. 308 of the 618 deputies of the lower house of Parliament voted in favour of the proposal, while 297 opposed the idea.

    It is not even the essence of the adopted bills that is important here (although their content also speaks volumes) - yesterday's voting showed a preliminary political alignment in the Parliament. And apparently, it is clearly not in favor of "soft" Brexit. The results of the vote suggest that the majority of deputies in the House of Commons are opposed to leaving the EU without an agreement – May's opponents are not only among Labour and other opposition parties, but also among "their" conservatives.

    Thus, the British prime minister's "saving strategy" seems to be a fiasco. Let me remind you that the local press this week discussed a possible scenario in which the Parliament approves the deal, but only if Brussels provides additional guarantees regarding the duration of the special regime on the Northern Ireland border. As you can see, the Parliament decided to go its own way, playing ahead. In addition, representatives of the European side also hurried to assure their British colleagues that they will no longer discuss the terms of the deal – under any conditions.



    What are the options then? According to the majority of experts, there are not so many of them, or to be more precise, only two: either the prime minister will postpone the vote again, as it was in December, or she will postpone the country's exit from the EU for an indefinite period, using the decision of the European Court of Justice, which at the end of last year clarified the provisions of the 50th article of the Treaty of Lisbon. Both options are negative for the British currency, despite the fact that they save from the "hard" Brexit. The market is quite exhausted by the two-year period of uncertainty, so the prolongation of this regime will be bad news for GBP/USD bulls.

    That is why the northern dynamics of the pair now looks unreliable and unconvincing. Long positions on the pair are too risky, especially on the eve of January 15, when a key vote in the British Parliament is to be held. If Theresa May takes one of the two decisions listed above at the weekend, the pound may collapse on Monday for several figures, as it was in mid-December. It will be possible to speak about the confident growth of the "cable" only when the "soft" Brexit becomes a reality – that is, when it receives the approval of the British parliamentarians.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  10. #2959
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    Forecast for AUD/USD on January 11, 2019

    AUD/USD

    Despite the persistent growth of the "ausie", its stubbornness seems to be false - Australian investors, no less than European, are waiting for a decision on the May project of the English parliament and are ready with equal enthusiasm to storm technical support "when it starts". In the meantime, the Australian dollar adds 30 points amid a stall in commodity growth.

    On the daily chart, the price has fixed above the Krusenstern line. Provided the growth is not very fast, the price can reach the resistance of the upper border of the price channel without resistance from above the red indicator line of balance.

    The initial sign of decline will be price fixing under the Krusenstern line for daily and local extremes on November 13 and October 17, followed by a decline to the Krusenstern line on the four-hour chart (0.7078). Fixing under this level opens up the prospect of an already powerful decline to the embedded line of the price channel in the area of 0.6780.



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  12. #2960
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    Brexit: Scenarios of the movement of the British pound. May, Tusk and Juncker exchanged courtesies

    The euro fell in the first half of the day to the area of a minimum amid weak industrial production data, indicating the likelihood of a slowdown in economic growth in 2018. A further bearish trend in the EUR/USD pair gets more real.

    Eurozone

    According to the report, industrial production in the eurozone in November last year declined more significantly than expected. As noted in Eurostat, industrial production in the euro area fell by 1.7% in November compared with October. This is the biggest drop since February 2016. Economists had expected a decline in production of 1.3%. Germany, where production fell by 1.9%, and Spain, where the decline was marked by 1.6%, were among the leaders in countries where production was falling the fastest.



    Thus, the decline in industrial production in many European countries only confirms the weakening of the global economy.

    This was noted in today's report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which states that the growth rates of the United States and many other developed countries will continue to slow down this year. The only exception may be the Chinese economy, which shows signs of stabilization. But even here, a lot will depend on the trade agreement with the United States.

    According to the data, the leading indicator for the US fell for the third month in a row, being at the level of 99.6 points. China's indicator rose to 98.9 points, indicating a less active slowdown in economic growth. The leading indicator of the eurozone is below the level of 100 points, indicating a continued slowdown in the pace of activity.

    As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it remained unchanged compared with the morning forecast. Buyers of risky assets need to go back to the resistance level of 1.1490 since the future direction will depend on it. If this fails to be done, then it is likely that the bears will continue to push the euro down to the support of 1.1425 and 1.1370.

    UK and Brexit

    The British pound continues its growth, which, apparently, is still more speculative. Traders positively perceived the information that the Prime Minister of Great Britain today sent a letter to Tusk and Juncker, in which she confirmed her intentions to carry out the decision made during the referendum. However, despite this, May is concerned about the fate of the Brexit deal, which is under threat due to concerns over Northern Ireland. The Prime Minister of Great Britain assured that the EU's concerns about the threat of a rigid border are groundless and negotiations will continue immediately after the vote in the UK. The focus of these negotiations will be on technology that will give up the guarantee of the absence of a rigid border.

    In turn, Juncker and Tusk responded to May in the same style, sending her a letter with assurances regarding the Brexit deal, but adding that they would not agree to anything that changes the agreement or does not correspond to it. Juncker also noted that the EU will quickly work on a trade agreement in order to avoid applying the guarantee of the absence of a rigid border in Ireland.

    All of these suggest that if the deal with the EU in the framework of a vote does not receive the support of parliamentarians tomorrow, the British pound may remain in the side channel until a final decision is reached since there are a lot of future development scenarios. Starting from the postponement of the exit of the UK from the EU, ending with indiscriminate exit without the adoption and approval of the basic laws.

    The prospect of complete abolition of Brexit also has a place to be that will support the British pound when information appears about the next referendum on this matter.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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