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Thread: Wave Analysis by InstaForex

  1. #11
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    GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 22, 2010

    GBP/JPY is developing wave C of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave C there are A-B-C subwaves (colored red) with subwave C still developing. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 133.03-130.75-131.61 (A-B waves), 131.61-129.55-130.30 (A-B subwaves).
    Supports:
    - 129.93 = contracted objective point (COP)
    - 128.24 = objective point (OP)
    - 127.92 = expanded objective point (XOP)
    If the price keeps moving up its resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 131.61-129.23, and 130.30-129.23.
    Resistances:
    - 129.76 = .50 retracement
    - 129.89 = .618 ret
    - 130.14 = .382 ret
    - 130.42 = .50 ret
    - 130.70 = .618 ret

    Overbought/Oversold
    Assuming that medium term trend is down it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscilaltor to open short positions. The overbought area lies 20 pips away and that is 129.76, 129.89 retracements.
    Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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  3. #12
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    Candlestick analysis of the AUD/USD for December 22

    The AUD/USD is testing the resistance level near 1.0000. As it was mentioned before, a breakout of the resistance level of 0.9965 means that the currency pair is targeted to 1.0182.
    Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further. This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound took place after a downside movement. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
    A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct. However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9710, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.



    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  4. #13
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    Crude Oil and Gold Review for 21/12/2010

    Crude oil
    Oil price advanced to more than $90/barrel on Tuesday after American Petroleum Institute announced huge reduction of oil reserves last week.
    On the NYMEX, light sweet crude futures for February were up 69 cents, or 0.8% to $90.06 per barrel.
    According to API, U.S. oil reserves decreased by 5.8 mln barrel for December 11-17. Gasoline reserves declined by 2.9 mln barrel and reserves of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, remained flat.
    However, market participants are waiting for the reliable reserve data by the Department of Energy due on Wednesday. As per forecasts, the DOE data will indicate 2.3 mln barrel crude oil reserve decrease for December 11-17. As estimated, gasoline reserves should have advanced 900.000 barrel and reserves of distillates should have been down by 600.000 barrel.
    The reserves have still been exceeding average levels, but extension of the recent decline, if any, will cause oil prices to increase in 2011.
    In general on Tuesday oil futures followed stock markets and other external guidance. U.S. stock indices were up due to hopes for activity in the Mergers and Acquisitions sphere after Canadian Toronto-Dominion Bank agreed to purchase Chrysler Financial for $6,3 bln.
    The trading was volatile as low activity increased the influence of small deals. Many traders have still been reluctant to open big positions before Christmas and New Year holidays, and most of December oil has been trading in a narrow range between $88 and $90.
    Nevertheless, continuous data flow indicating improvement in the U.S. economy has still been supporting oil prices. Later this week several reports will give more details about the current economic state. GDP data for the 3rd quarter is due on Wednesday and durable goods orders report is expected on Thursday.


    Gold
    Gold futures closed on the upside on Tuesday amid declining euro and concerns about financial stability in Europe that maintained the interest to metal purchase. According to COMEX session’s results, February gold futures rose 2.70 dollar, or 0.2% to $1388.80 a troy ounce.
    Gold prices had a hard time remaining on the upside amid the euro decreasing against the dollar. Advancing U.S. currency increases the price of gold futures for other currency holders. Financial uncertainty in Europe helps avoid the traditional gold price decline in the Christmas season, that is conditioned by traders and investors fixating the year’s profit from metal. Moody’s agency disturbed European debt markets by announcing possible decrease of Portugal’s A1 long-term credit rating. The agency referred to uncertainty about the country’s long-term economic prosperity and its ability to refinance debts at an acceptable price.
    On Friday Moody’s lowered Ireland’s credit rating. It happened several weeks after the country received financial assistance from the EU. In the meantime, Fitch Ratings placed Greece in the list for rating revision and warned that its rating can be lowered to “junk”. These danger signals force investors to put funds in gold, and some investors purchase gold to protect themselves against currency fluctuations.


    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
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    The GBP/USD wave analysis for December 22, 2010.








    The GBP/USD pair resumed the downside movement of the pound and passed the last Friday’s low, indicating the intention to extend the downward section initiated December 14. In the meantime, if this pair continues to decline, yesterday’s high will be interpreted as the 2nd wave of the future C. If so, yesterday’s ease has probably indicated the beginning of the 3rd wave in this C.

    Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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  6. #15
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    The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 22, 2010





    Overview:
    Another correction started without even touching the first support level, which is indicated by MACD. The developed sell signal has target level of 1.2966. This signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph and the price managed to fixate below the Ishimoku cloud. But as mentioned before, correction movement is continuing, therefore it is not recommended to trade down until it ends. The first target for downside movement is 1.3047 – the first support level. If the first support level is passed the next target will be the second support level of 1.2907. The downside movement remains until the price is below the Kijun-Sen (1.3220), short positions should be closed if the price strengthens above this line. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, thus confirming the current sell signal and indicates the bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the downwards movement, the lines are directed down and diverging. The MACD is ascending, thus point to the current correction movement.
    Trading recommendations:
    Currently it is recommended to trade down with the target to 1.3047, in case this level is passed the target will be 1.2907. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.3220. Short positions should be opened only if the MACD reverses down.
    In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.



    The chart annotation:
    Ichimoku indicator:
    Tenkan-sen — red line
    Kijun-Sen — blue line
    Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
    Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
    Chinkou Span — green line
    Bollinger Bands indicator:
    3 yellow lines
    MACD indicator:
    The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




    Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



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    Fundamental Analysis, December 22, 2010




    The Asian stock markets have recorded index rises this morning due to the security situation calming down in Korea, as well as the positive trend on Wall Street. As such, Singapore's stock exchange strengthened by 0.3%, the Hong Kong stock exchange rose by 1.2%, the Seoul stock exchange climbed 0.9%, Taiwan grew by 0.5%, the Shanghai exchange advanced by 0.8%, whereas the Tokyo exchange increased by 1.3% after the Japanese central bank announced, as expected, that it will leave the interest rate unchanged, continuing to supply liquidity to the Japanese economy.

    In the American macroeconomic sphere, the ICSC and Goldman-Sachs have reported yesterday that retail sales in the United States rose last week by 4.2% as compared to the parallel week in 2009. We will note that today no major data is expected to be published.

    Oil closed on a two-year high, having climbed by 0.5% to 89.92 United States dollars per barrel of oil at the New York Commodities Exchange, the highest locking price since October 2008. Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have climbed by 13%.

    Moody's credit rating agency announced yesterday that it is considering a possible downgrading of Portugal's credit rating. The agency stated that is may lower the rating, currently standing at A1, by a level or two, this due to concerns regarding Portugal's ability to raise money in the markets, as well as the uncertainty regarding economic growth due to its austerity plans.

    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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    NZD/USD (Daily Strategy), December 22, 2010









    NZD/USD

    On the technical level, the New Zealand dollar – United States dollar(NZD/USD) hit an interesting crossroads yesterday. On the one hand, the pair is on the verge of an upwards breakthrough of its minor trend line. On the other hand, it is on the verge of a downwards breakthrough of the meaningful support level 0.7360.

    The change in investor sentiment moves the chances towards an upwards breach of the trend line and a renewal of the upwards movement that is expected to continue all the way up until the resistance level that braked the pair's movement during the previous wave of upwards movement around 0.7850. To avoid a false breach it is best to condition deal entry to on a daily close over the trend line passing through 0.7470. On the other hand, a daily close under the 0.7340 support level may lead the pair south, towards the 0.7020 support levels.









    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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    AUD/CHF, Head and Shoulders Bullish Reversal Pattern, December 22, 2010 (Daily Strategy)










    AUD/CHF

    The short graph on the Australian dollar – Swiss franc pair is beginning to hint at the beginnings of a head and shoulders pattern. All that remains for the pattern to be complete is a short upwards movement towards the pattern's neckline around 0.9590. Those among us preferring risks can enter even at the present price levels, strengthening their position after the breach of the neckline.

    More conservative traders would be best to wait for a close over the 0.9600 neckline, and only then enter a buy deal with a first realization goal at 0.9700, and a second, final goal for full realization marked near the resistance level of 0.9830 Swiss francs for one Australian dollar.

    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
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  10. #19
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    Technical analysis of the USD/CAD for December 22, 2010
    Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
    Resistance levels: 1.0167, 1.0290, 1.0380
    On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is making a rebound after it failed to break the support level 1.0212. Earlier the USD/CAD rebounded from the support level of 1.0000, which is also a bottom of a wide trading range.
    The uprising movement is supported by the fact that on a 4-hour chart the MACD divergence appeared. As it was mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks through the level of 1.0290, then this will lead to uprising movement with a target to 1.0380. The breakthrough of 1.0380 will mean that a pullback from 1.0680 ended and further advance should be expected. Moreover, a breakout of 1.0380 will indicate the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
    Nonetheless, a breakthrough of support level of 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach the 0.9930 level.
    In a midterm, the currency pair will probably remain within the bounds of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. In case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm the end of consolidation and that the downtrend from 1.3063 is breached. In this case it is forecasted that the USD/CAD will move up to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.


    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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  12. #20
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    Candlestick analysis of the USD/CHF for December 22
    On a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF is testing the support level of 0.9559 again. The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish as earlier the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
    This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of uptrend.
    A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view. The breakout of 0.9559 will target the currency pair to 0.9462.
    It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9736 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9850.

    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

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