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Thread: Fundamental analysis

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    Fundamental analysis

    Fundamental analysis

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Fundamental analysis is a way of determininig the market movement based on the current position of the economy.For instance a high demand for crude oil in a particular country means that it is going to affect supply hence the price of crude oil will rise due to high demand.

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    Peripheral economies may still burn the euro. Jean-Claude Trichet may have boosted the credibility of the European Central Bank, but only at a high cost to the euro. The ECB president's decision to signal a rate rise as early as next month certainly gave the single currency a strong boost, but Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain must have the distinct feeling they are being sacrificed for the good of the central bank. As these 'peripheral' countries of the euro zone struggle to avoid defaulting on their debts, and funding their banks becomes increasingly difficult, higher rates are the last thing they need. Sure, Trichet has attempted to mollify the markets with the promise that a little rise next month doesn't mean the start of a series of interest rate increases. But, as the euro's 10-cent rally since the start of the year shows, just talk of higher rates is enough to push the currency sharply higher. So peripheral debtors--who are already teetering on the edge of default--are now faced not only with higher rates, but also with a stronger euro that will undermine export growth just at the time they need it. On top of all this, there is the rally in commodity prices, particularly the rise in crude oil prices to their highest levels in two and a half years. Trichet's rate rise hint may well have been a direct response to the higher cost of energy, but this will prove an additional burden to the economies of the peripherals, especially if Middle East tensions intensify and higher crude oil prices become more of a permanent feature for financial markets. Although Trichet has justified his hawkish position along the lines that the central bank needs to preempt inflationary pressures and preserve its prime purpose of price stability, the highly-anticipated rate rise could well prove premature. Core inflation in the euro zone of 1.1% is the same as in the U.S., yet the U.S. Federal Reserve only this week reassured financial markets that, while it is poised to move if needed, the central bank has little intention of abandoning its ultra-easy policy just yet. At the moment, the currency markets may be voting in favor of the ECB, pushing the euro higher at the expense of the dollar as yield differentials move more in favor of the euro zone.

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    Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Forex.com | Mar 07 11
    The Dollar's Misery Continues

    After a slow start to the trading week the big news was that short dollar positions had reached a record low as investors sold the greenback on a broad-based basis. This coincided with long euro positions reaching their highest level since 2008 according to the CME speculative positioning data. While the long euro - short dollar theme was reinforced last week after the ECB President dropped some heavy hints that Euro-area rates will rise next month, when positions get this stretched they can signal a reversal or period of consolidation. So we would be wary at these levels and will wait to see if there is enough momentum in the market to keep this theme going.

    The euro easily brushed off news this morning that Greece had been downgraded by a large credit rating agency, who said that Greek fiscal consolidation plans look ambitious when revenue collection is less than expected. However, it also noted that if the mechanisms to improve revenue collection were put in place than the outlook for Greece's fiscal situation would turn around dramatically. EURUSD fell about 30 points on the news but soon clawed back these losses and is currently above the 1.4000 level.

    Spain has seen an improvement in economic indicators recently, which has caused the spread between its 10-year government bond yield and Germany's start to narrow. Credit rating agencies remain cautious however, and Fitch lowered its long-term outlook on Spanish debt to negative from stable. The fear is that higher interest rates from the ECB will hurt growth in these countries that won't help fiscal consolidation.

    Right now those fears are being played out in the credit markets and the euro remains supported, but this week's EU summit where leaders of the currency bloc will discuss policy solutions to the sovereign debt crisis will be watched closely. There is a growing realisation that radical measures will be avoided and the most likely outcome is that the size of the fund will be increased to its full allotment of EUR440bn. If there are any signs that Germany won't help out its troubled neighbours this could be a major obstacle to the euro sustaining its recent highs as the market has been holding out hope for Germany to reluctantly step in, albeit reluctantly, and provide the financial fire power to bring this crisis to an end.

    Elsewhere, it's a fairly light data week, with the Bank of England meeting on Thursday the highlight along with US retail sales for February, released on Friday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is expected to cut rates after last month's devastating earthquake. The market is looking for a 25bp cut, but the risk is the cut will be larger after New Zealand PM explicitly said he expected the Central Bank to cut rates to help boost growth. This could weigh even further on the Kiwi dollar, which has fallen 4 per cent since the quake against the US dollar and has sunk to a multi-year low versus the Aussie.

    Chinese officials also meet for their 5-year planning session this week. Commerce Minister Chen was speaking this morning about the yuan. He reiterated the official line that the Yuan will appreciate "gradually over the long-term" and that it was unreasonable for other nations to seek yuan gains for trade reasons. This is likely to rouse the ire of politicians in Washington and keep the focus on the so-called "currency war".

    Oil is higher as Libya lurches closer to full blown civil war. This is adding to the downward pressure on the greenback, which moves inversely to commodity prices. It is also keeping a lid on stocks, which are only slightly positive in the European session after Friday's gains post the strong US labour market data.

    http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/...0110307134800/

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    Fri, 11 Mar 2011 09:04:21 GMT

    ITALIAN GDP (Q4) Q/Q COMES IN AS EXPECTED AT 0.1% THE Y/Y FIGURE IS 1.5% BEATING EXPECTATIONS OF 1.3%

    $EURUSD: Trading near highs despite market rumours that Portugal is set to announce a bailout this morning.

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    BoJ enhances monetary easing

    Mon, Mar 14 2011, 06:29 GMT | FXstreet.com
    FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Bank of Japan has decided it will be buy 500 bln JGBs and 1000 bln in s/t securities in expanded program. USD/JPY remains quiet, slightly above 82.00 after the news.

    "The central bank board decided by a vote of 8-1 to expand the fund pool for buying assets and conducting market operations backed by collateral by 5 trillion yen ($61 billion), to 40 trillion yen" quoted Reuters.

    According to the Bank, "the move is aimed at preventing a worsening of business sentiment and risk-aversive in financial markets from damaging the economy". The key rate was kept on hold at 0-0.10 percent by a unanimous decision.

    In another statement, the BOJ said that "it will continue to closely monitor the outlook for the economy and prices and take appropriate action when necessary".

    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...f-42412bd5335c

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    Tue, 15 Mar 2011 00:53:00 GMT

    AUSTRALIA: RBA points to cautiously growing global economy and recovery, puts focus back on global inflation risks

    JAPAN: BoJ to start buying government bonds worth JPY 2 Trillion starting March 17 and ending on March 18

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    Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey declines

    Tue, Mar 15 2011, 10:16 GMT | FXstreet.com
    FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Centre for European Economic Research presented the outcome of its March Survey placing Economic Sentiment in Germany at 14.1, while the Teuton's assessment of the Current Situation rose to 85.4.

    The previous Economic Sentiment reading stood at 15.7 while markets expected it to rise to 16.2. In terms of the Current Situation, the previous result was 85.2 with a market forecast of 84.9.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...4-62d6a463d707

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    Dollar off daily highs ahead of FOMC

    Tue, Mar 15 2011, 16:49 GMT | FXstreet.com
    FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – After soaring to multi-week highs against several major rivals including GBP, AUD and CAD, dollar is off daily highs also against EUR as market waits for the FOMC monetary policy decision and the subsequent speech from FED’s president Ben Bernanke. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, market attention will focus on the already classic wording “extremely low for an extended period” comment.

    Despite unlikely, recent market rumors had speculate on the probably that Bernanke will finally drop the phrase, opening doors for an upcoming rate hike. The US growth has been dragged down lately by employment situation that was unable to pick up as other sectors of the economy; still latest Nonfarm payrolls had show that unemployment rate decreased to 8.9%, levels not seen since April 2009. If the wording is finally removed as expected, dollar may finally gather strength supported also by current risk environment.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...4-1f2355aba19a

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    Tue, 22 Mar 2011 02:05:03 GMT

    BoE current base interest rate at 0.5%. How will tomorrow's expected higher CPI/Inflation affect the April 7th rate decision?

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    Natural Gas Daily Fundamental Analysis

    Natural gas prices dropped heavily on Thursday after the EIA report for natural gas inventories showed the biggest rise since September 2010, where the EIA report showed natural gas inventories increased by 92 billion cubic feet, slightly above expectations of 90 BCF and following the prior rise of 70 BCF.
    The rise in inventories for last week topped last year’s rise of 78 BCF and the 5-year average of 91 BCF for the week.
    Natural gas prices should continue to fall on Friday, as speculations of moderate weather conditions, in addition to rising inventories should continue to push natural gas prices lower.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...ok/2011/05/20/

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