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Thread: Fundamental analysis

  1. #21
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    NY Fed to slow mortgage bond sales from Maiden Lane
    Mon May 23, 2011 5:51pm EDT

    May 23 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will slow the sales of mortgage-backed securities from its Maiden Lane II portfolio, in part because some transactions in recent weeks have pushed prices lower, said a dealer.
    The New York Fed, on a conference call with dealers on Monday, said it would offer no more bonds from the portfolio until June 6, and then not again until early July, said Marina Tukhin, head of the ABS group at Gleacher Descap in New York.
    The Maiden Lane II portfolio was created to absorb risky mortgage securities from AIG (AIG.N) and help prevent the collapse of what was the world's largest insurer. AIG in March offered $15.7 billion for the entire portfolio, but the Fed said the public would be better served by selling the assets individually at auction.
    A New York Fed spokesman declined to comment.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...3?feedType=RSS

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    AUD opens significantly lower this morning

    Australian Dollar:
    The Australian Dollar opens significantly lower this morning buying 1.0505 US Cents. Driving the Aussie lower yesterday was the release of a Chinese Manufacturing Index which fell to its lowest level in 10 Months. Given Australia's strong trading ties with Asias largest economy, investors took the opportunity to sell the Australian Dollar, with the rate eventually bottoming out around the 1.0478 level against its US Counterpart. With Asian Stocks also losing considerable ground and a fresh bout of risk aversion hitting the market further selling pressures in the short-term are expected to remain on the higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian Dollar
    * We expect a range today of 1.0460-1.0560

    New Zealand Dollar:
    After the New Zealand dollar traded as high of 0.7998 late last week, we see the kiwi open this morning notably lower at a rate of 0.7900 against the Greenback. With a fresh bout of risk aversion being spurred on by concerns that the European Debt Crisis may yet worsen the New Zealand dollar was sold to an eventual low of 0.7858. Today we see the release of Inflationary Expectations with investors keen to gain a clearer timeframe to which the RBNZ may potentially look to raise interest rates. Meanwhile the Kiwi is also weaker this morning against the pound currently trading a rate of 0.49.
    * We expect a range today of 0.7850-7950

    Great British Pound:
    UK Stocks sank last night dragging the benchmark FTSE 100 Index to its lowest Level in two months. As global investors across the board shed riskier positions the Greenback was purchased and the Great British Pound sold. With a European Debt Crisis most likely set to worsen in the short term, there was no escape for the sterling as it was sold to an eventual low of 1.6087. This morning we see the Sterling open a full cent lower compared to the same time yesterday currently trading a rate of 1.6117 against its US counterpart. Attention should intensify on local happenings in the UK as we see the announcement of Public Net Borrowing figures due for release today
    * We expect a range today of 1.6080-1.6175

    Majors:

    In what proved to be an eventful day of trading yesterday Global Stocks sank the most in two months. As commodities plunged, Oil and metals also retreating there was a major move back into the Greenback overnight with the US currency strengthening against 16 of its major peers. Dominating the headlines, the market again heard rumours of growing concern that Europe’s debt situation is worsening and that there path to economic recovery is slowing. As the costs of protecting Greece against any debt default scenario continue to mount the EURO dipped overnight below 1.40 against the Greenback for the first time since March. This morning the EURO opens a full cent lower currently trading at a rate of 1.4042. Meanwhile the Yen opens higher this morning against all 16 most traded counterparts except the US at a rate of 81.981.

    Mon, May 23 2011, 23:03 GMT
    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...is/2011/05/23/

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    Pound exposed to further weakness as Moody's to place UK banks on review for downgrade
    Tue, May 24 2011, 02:52 GMT

    The British Pound has seen a rather vertical fall against the Dollar in May, moving from year high shy of 1.6750 earlier on the month, to currently mantain the strong bearish sentiment trapped below the 1.6100 handle, 7-week low. The stagnation on UK growth coupled with indecision by BoE to raise rates has taken its toll on the British currency.
    To make matters worse, there is a report circulating out of Bloomberg sources quoting: “Moody’s Investors Service is to place 14 of the 18 British banks and building societies it covers on review for downgrade, Sky News reported, citing people close to Moody’s. The agency will make the announcement today and more than one of the big four U.K. banks will be placed on review, including Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY), Sky said”.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...d-e31b7c1b2c79

  5. #24
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    The US dollar index broke 76.0 resistance to 76.37

    Tue, May 24 2011, 05:09 GMT
    Market wrap
    Negative sentiment pervaded all the major asset classes from the London morning onwards. Eurozone debt remains the main concern, and Fitch added Belgium to the mix by revising its AA+ outlook to negative, citing political risks to defi cit reduction. Eurozone PMI data was weaker than expected, but new ECB member Weidmann believed infl ation remained a threat, suggesting a July hike is still on the cards. A Chicago Fed report on national activity was weaker than expected. The S&P500 is currently 1.1% lower, all the major Asian and European bourses earlier suff ering around 2% losses. The CRB commodities index is 1.4% lower, perhaps aff ected by yesterday’s weaker China PMI reading. US 10yr treasury yields are 2bp lower at 3.12%, having bounced off 3.09% support earlier. Eurozone peripheral debt again suff ered large losses, the Greek 10yr yield up 46bp to a fresh record at 17.03%, Ireland up 32bp, and Portugal up 26bp.
    The US dollar index broke 76.0 resistance to 76.37. EUR broke lower to 1.3970 but rebounded during the London morning to 1.4070. The yen was the second best performer after the US dollar, USD/JPY falling sharply around the Sydney close from 82.00 to 81.35, but then rebounding to 81.95. Underperformer AUD tried to break below major support at 1.0500, briefl y touching 1.0479, but has recovered to 1.0530. NZD fell to 0.7860 around midday NY and then fi rmed to 0.7920. AUD/NZD continued its multi-week decline, falling a cent overnight to 1.3290.

    Economic wrap
    US Chicago Fed national activity index falls from 0.31 to –0.45 in Apr. That is the lowest reading for this index (based on 80+ data series covering all sectors of the economy) since August last year when “double dip recession” fears were last looming.
    Euroland advance PMIs considerably weaker in May. The factory PMI fell from 58.0 to 54.8 (its lowest for the year so far) and the services PMI was down 1.3 pts to 55.4 (lowest since Dec). The composite PMI fell from 57.8 to 55.4.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...rt/2011/05/24/

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    S&P500 – still in a corrective phase

    Agencies (back) in action

    On Friday, Fitch agency downgraded Greek rating from BB+ to B+. That’s understandable – if politicians admit they consider a restructuring (even in a soft form), why agencies should stay optimistic. But shortly S&P revised Italy’s outlook to negative and Belgium took a similar hit from Fitch on Monday. So here were back to the spring of 2010…

    Obviously, the fact that Greece, Portugal and Spain had their ratings slashed numerously in the spring of last year was caused by their improper fiscal policies. However, one can hardly resist an impression that those moves cumulated within a period when market faced elevated uncertainty. Between mid-March and mid-July of 2010 three major agencies lowered ratings or outlooks for PIGS countries 12 times, whereas previous 2 and following 2 months (again 4 months combined) brought only one change. Surely, agencies might argue that higher costs of debt servicing deteriorate fiscal outlook but then again, this flurry of cuts certainly didn’t help stem those costs and greatly escalated the crisis last year.

    Whatever the line of reasoning behind those rating moves, market participants should anticipate more cuts to come and hit the sentiment. For the euro that is a clear downside risk – spreads for Greece, Portugal and Ireland are way higher than they were at the beginning of the year when EURUSD was trading below 1,30 (obviously other factors like monetary policy changed) and spreads of “so-far-more-stable” sovereigns like Spain, Italy and Belgium are very close to levels from early January. As we noticed yesterday, until there is an evidence of agreement between parties involved in Europe, moves like rating cuts will be fanning contagion fears.

    S&P500 – still in a corrective phase

    Returning to our technical review of the S&P500 futures from Friday we may see that the index’s futures still remain in a corrective mode encompassed by the declining channel. The move is similar to a decline from February and March and nearly exhausted the timeframe but not the range of that previous correction.
    Consequently a “clearing” sell-off, a similar one that took place on March 15th and 16th would be required to make those corrections ideal one-to-ones. In that case one could search for a support around 1272 pts. A closer support is around 1295 pts.

    The whole structure consisting of a decline from a February/March (wave a), a subsequent Fed-driven rally (wave b) and a recent decline (a possible wave c) may compose a running correction – a corrective movement typical for markets in an evident long-term bullish mode.

    Events to watch – Ifo and US home sales

    US housing market is weak and the data on new home sales (10.00 ET, 16.00 CET, consensus 300k) shouldn’t change this impression. In Europe, Germany’s Ifo index (4.00 ET, 10.00 CET, consensus 110 pts.) will be interesting to watch following a release of flash PMIs pointing to a sharp decline in activity.

    Tue, May 24 2011, 06:58 GMT
    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...ot/2011/05/24/

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    European markets open with moderate gains as debt panic eases
    Tue, May 24 2011, 08:55 GMT

    European markets have opened with moderate advances on Tuesday after Monday's declines, with investors somewhat relieved by better than expected business sentiment yet holding their breath as sovereign debt spillover spreads to big economies as Italy or Spain.
    Eurostoxx 50 Index adds 0.55%, the German DAX Index rises 0.65% and the French CAC trades 0.45% higher. In the UK, the advances 0.35% in the first two hours of trading.
    On the macroeconomic front, German Business climate data has been a positive surprise, as IFO business climate Index remained flat, at 114.2 May, beating experts expectations of a slight decline to 113.7. The Current economic conditions index improved to 121.4 from 121.0, while the expectations index eased from 107.7 to 107.4, yet above the consensus 104.00.

    Euro and Pond pick up

    EUR/USD decline from 1.4345 found support yesterday at the 100-day SMA around 1.3970, and the pair regained 1.4000 psychological level to extend towards 1.4100 on Tuesday, favoured by upbeat German business climate data.

    GBP/USD decline from 1.6305 on Friday found support on early Asian session at 1.6055, and the pair has been going through a choppy recovery, returning above 1.6100, and reaching session highs at 1.6155.

    USD/JPY retreat from 82.10 high on early Asian session, found support at 81.60 right above short-term uptrend channel support, to bounce up again on early European session, reaching prices right below 82.00.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...7-61b7715aeff4

  8. #27
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    Euro Zone Debt Crisis Spread Fear in Markets, and Force...

    Pessimism continued to dominate financial markets on Monday, where investors were still focused on the European debt crisis amid the lack of economic fundamentals from the United States, which led investors to focus on global developments, noting that economic data from China and Europe signaled slowing economic activities.

    Moreover, commodity prices also tumbled as investors sought low yielding assets such as the U.S. dollar, while dumping higher yielding assets, which weighed down on commodity prices.

    Concerns that Greece will be force t restructure its debt continue to weigh down on confidence levels in markets, while the S&P added today to the misery in Europe by announcing it downgraded the outlook of Italy's debt to "negative" from "stable", which indeed spread pessimism across global markets.

    Stocks in the United States dropped at opening on Monday, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by nearly 1.10% to trade around 12,380, while the S&P 500 index dropped by nearly 1.10% to trade around 1,318. European stock indexes were lower before closing on Monday, where FTSE 100 was down by nearly 1.70% trading at 5850 and the DAX was lower by nearly 2% to trade around 7120.

    The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of major currencies on Monday, noting the U.s. dollar index opened with a gap to the upside, where the U.S. dollar index was trading at 76.14, compared with the opening level at 76.04 and Friday's closing level of 75.66. The Euro fell against the Dollar, where the EUR/USD pair traded at $1.4038, compared with the opening level at $1.4116, and the British Pound also declined against the dollar, where the GBP/USD pair traded at $1.6126, down from the opening level at $1.6228.

    Gold prices were slightly lower on Monday, where gold traded around $1513 an ounce, and crude oil prices remained below $100 a barrel, where crude oil prices are trading around $97 a barrel.

    Tue, May 24 2011, 09:42 GMT
    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...ts/2011/05/24/

  9. #28
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    May 24, 2011, 6:04 a.m. EDT
    U.S. stock futures rise; housing data in focus
    Oil, silver futures gain; euro rebounds against the dollar

    LONDON (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures were pointing to a slightly higher start for Wall Street on Tuesday, as investors appeared ready to cautiously test the upside a day after growing worries over Europe’s debt problems dented equity markets around the globe.
    Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 index SPM11 +0.22% rose 4.7 points to 1,319.90, while Nasdaq 100 futures NDM11 +0.09% gained 5.75 points to 2,321.25. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures DJM11 +0.22% rose 36 points to 12,398.
    “We’re looking at a marginally higher opening, mostly a bit of bargain hunting off of [Monday’s] losses,” said Joshua Raymond, market strategist at City Index.
    “It’s going to be quite important that the Dow trades back above 12,500, we’re hoping for an immediate return there,” he said, while consolidation above the 1,320 level for the S&P 500 index would help maintain a positive tone.
    On the economic calendar, data on U.S. new home sales for April are due at 10 a.m. Eastern time. The figures will be closely watched after a round of disappointing housing data last week, Raymond said.
    In corporate news, automotive retailer AutoZone Inc.AZO +0.07% is set to report quarterly results ahead of the bell. Earnings are also expected from Medtronic Inc. MDT -2.25%
    Airline stocks could see a second day of pressure as an ash cloud from a volcanic eruption in Iceland begins to disrupt flights in and out of Scotland, he said. The eruption of a different Icelandic volcano a little over a year ago caused massive disruptions to European air travel. Authorities have said the most recent eruption is unlikely to produce such wide-scale problems. Read “Flights cancelled as ash drifts towards U.K.”
    European markets were posting gains, with commodity-related stocks leading the way as metals and oil futures gained ground. Read European Markets.
    Asian markets ended a choppy session with small gains as investors looked for bargains in the wake of Monday’s worldwide selloff. Read Asia Markets.
    Equities around the world fell Monday on fears Europe’s debt crisis could spread to Spain and, possibly, Italy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -1.05% dropped more than 1% to finish at 12,381.26.
    Nymex oil futures CLM11 +1.07% rose $1.33 to trade at $99.03 a barrel in electronic trade.
    The EURUSD +0.3133% bounced versus the dollar to trade at $1.4111, a gain of 0.7%, while the U.S. unit was 0.1% lower versus the Japanese yen at ¥81.86.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-...cus-2011-05-24

  10. #29
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    Pound Deflects Weaker Data, Possible Downgrades to Key Banks

    The Pound was resilient overnight and heading into the start of NY trading despite some softer data showing that public borrowing was more than expected in April.
    From Bloomberg: “Britain posted its largest budget shortfall for any April since monthly records began in 1993 as tax revenue fell and spending climbed, casting doubt on whether the government can meet its deficit-reduction target this year.
    Net borrowing was 10 billion pounds ($16.2 billion), compared with 7.2 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The median of 12 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey was for a shortfall of 6.5 billion pounds. Revenue fell 0.8 percent, partly reflecting a one-time boost from a bank bonus tax a year ago, and spending rose 5 percent.”
    The news lowers the chances that the government will be able to fulfill its deficit-reduction targets. The market had rewarded George Osborne and the UK government for its bold austerity proposals as the country tries to cut its budget deficit to 7.9% of GDP this current fiscal year, from a record 11.1% of GDP (or £156.6 billion) in the aftermath of the global recession.
    The Treasury said the disappointing figure was a result of one-off factors, and said that its deficit-reduction strategy is making progress. The austerity measures at the same time are being cited by opponents of leading to weaker consumer spending and impacting economic growth.
    At the same time, 14 banks from the UK were put on warning of facing a rating cut.
    From Wall Street Journal: “Part state-owned U.K. banks Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and Lloyds Banking Group PLC face ratings cuts as their chances of further state support recede, Moody’s Investors Service said Tuesday, in its latest effort to determine what “normal” credit ratings are post-financial crisis.
    The ratings agency in April had said it would reassess the effect of implied state support on 19 U.K. financial institutions. On Tuesday, it formally put some of the banks on review for downgrade and changed the outlook to negative on Barclays PLC while affirming a negative outlook on HSBC Holdings PLC. In all, 14 banks and building societies are now on review for downgrade.
    Moody’s said the reassessment isn’t because of any deterioration in the U.K. banking system’s or the government’s financial strength, but rather to reflect U.K. authorities’ efforts to reduce the chances of future state bailouts for failing banks.
    The U.K. is “one of the countries perhaps the most adamant that it will get to a situation where taxpayer money is not needed to save the banks. We’re now at the point where we feel we have to readjust the right level of systemic support, given the developments taking place at the regulatory level,” said Elisabeth Rudman, a senior credit officer at Moody’s.”
    Coming on the heels of dovish BOE Meeting Minutes and weak economic data, we would expect the GBP to strain under the pressure of these 2 negative news developments. However, following the sharp declines in stocks in the UK yesterday, today we saw stocks in the black despite the news on financials, and the GBP/USD managed to pare some of its overnight losses, climbing to 1.6177.
    Here too, the warning came with a caveat in that they did not come from some new deterioration in the banks, but rather the assessment of how these banks would do without more government support.
    Helping the Pound was the CBI Realized Sales index which measures retailers business. Those retailers seeing sales volumes increase from a year ago outnumbered those reporting declines by 18 percentage points in May, compared with 21 points in April. However, while the index declined, it came in stronger than expected (11), and therefore was seen as a positive for the GBP in the short term.
    There is not too much optimist that UK consumers will have a strong 2011 as austerity measures will bite down on jobs, the government cuts back on spending weakening aggregate demand, and elevated inflation cuts into discretionary spending.
    While the Pound was a bit stronger against the USD, we saw general USD weakness amid a pullback from the risk aversion we saw to start this week. However, this data does not help the UK from a fundamental perspective and if we see today’s tepid rally give way, and risk sentiment again swings back in favor of safe-haven currencies, the softer data and news today can give the GBP some heartburn.

    Tue, May 24 2011, 15:16 GMT
    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...2011/05/24/02/

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  12. #30
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    Japan’s exports drop 12.5 percent in April, showing effects 1 month after tsunami disaster
    Wednesday, May 25, 7:30 AM

    TOKYO — Japan’s exports in April fell 12.5 percent from a year earlier as production tumbled after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, the government said Wednesday.
    Exports declined to 5.16 trillion yen ($62.8 billion) last month. Imports in April rose 8.9 percent year-on-year to 5.62 trillion yen.
    Japan’s exports to the United States dropped 23.3 percent, and Asia-bound shipments declined 6.6 percent in April. Japan’s exports to China also fell 6.8 percent, marking the first year-on-year decline in 18 months, the ministry said.
    The earthquake and tsunami left more than 24,000 people dead or missing and destroyed hundreds of factories in the northeast coastal region, forcing manufacturers such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. to suspend production.
    A tumble in output caused a drop in exports in March and April.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...ss=rss_economy

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